Bracketology Update
The Gold Sheet
Less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, with the situation remaining fluid until then. A handful of teams seemed to secure at-large status last weekend, including Clemson, Oklahoma State, Northern Iowa, and Cal. Teams falling back into some bubble trouble might include Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Illinois, San Diego State, Texas, and Florida. Teams that hurt themselves badly include UConn and Rhode Island. Teams that helped themselves last week include Notre Dame, Marquette, Minnesota, Old Dominion, Dayton, and Ole Miss. Purdue didn’t hurt its chances of making the field but its seeding prospects took a hit with not only the ugly defeat vs. Michigan State on Sunday, but the loss of star F Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
So, let’s get to our latest "Bracketology" update and Big Dance projections. Our top four seeds right now are Duke (East), Syracuse (South), Kansas (Midwest), and Kentucky (West); "last four in" this week are Saint Mary’s, UTEP, Marquette, and Notre Dame; our "last four out" are Minnesota, Dayton, UConn, and Ole Miss; our "next four out" are Rhode Island, Charlotte, Wichita State, and Memphis.Straight-up records and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) are thru February 28.
EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)
At Jacksonville...
1 Duke (SUR 25-3, RPI-2) vs. 16 Lehigh (19-10, 170)...With Purdue slipping vs. Michigan State on Sunday and now minus Robbie Hummel to boot, there is room for Duke to slip through on the rail and grab the number one seed in the East (which cannot be filled by Syracuse with the second weekend being played at the Carrier Dome). Steering mostly clear of traffic in the ACC has allowed Coach K to quietly slip into the top line, although the Blue Devils might have to win the ACC Tourney to hold this spot. Lehigh or whomever wins the Patriot League will be even money to be involved in the play-in game, but for the moment, and based on RPI, we have instead slotted projected Big South winner Campbell to oppose the SWAC winner at Dayton in the play-in game. The Engineers will be hosting Patriot League Tourney action in Bethlehem as long as they keep winning in that event, which begins Wednesday night.
8 Northern Iowa (25-4, 20) vs. 9 Cal (20-9, 21)...Although HC Ben Jacobson is undoubtedly reminding his UNI squad that last year’s 26-win, Valley reg.-season co-champ Creighton was eventually denied an NCAA at-large berth, we think the Panthers, with C Jordan Eglseder back in the fold, are safe for an at-large after they bounced back from the midweek Evansville shocker to top Illinois State on the weekend. The bigger "bubble" question in the Valley is if someone other than UNI (Wichita? Illinois State? Heck, maybe even hot longshot Evansville?) wins the event, which would surely give the league an extra Big Dance bid this season and likely bump another team from elsewhere off the bubble. Stay tuned. We’re thinking the same might also apply now to Cal, which based upon its computer numbers and top seed in the upcoming Pac-10 Tourney might have done enough already to secure an at-large invitation. In which case the Pac-10 likely becomes a two-bid league if someone other than the Golden Bears wins the wide-open event (of which almost any entry in the conference looks capable, even downtrodden Oregon, which managed to sweep the L.A. schools on the road last weekend).
At Spokane...
4 Pitt (22-7, 10) vs. 13 Murray State (27-4, 69)... The composition of this year’s tourney suggests that at least one top four seed will shipped further away frm home than usual, likely out west, where (thanks to the Pac-10's temporary demise) there are few protected-seed quality entries. Pitt, down the pecking order in a top-heavy Big East but still a likely 3 or 4 seed, thus appears a candidate to get sent further from home than it usually would in the first round. Meanwhile, Murray State’s 17-game win streak was put to the sword by old rival Morehead State last Thursday, which doesn’t cost Murray the OVC’s regular-season crown or top seed in the conference tourney. But it does give the Racers something to think about in the upcoming OVC Tourney at the Sommet Center, home of the NHL’s Nashville Predators.
5 Michigan State (22-7, 27) vs. 12 Notre Dame (19-10, 65)... Bring on Bubba Smith and Coley O’Brien, and ask Ara Parseghian to provide extra analysis! (Ahh, we love the crossover matchups from football to hoops.) The Spartans might be worthy of a protected seed, but we don’t want to give MSU too much credit for beating Robbie Hummel-less Purdue on Sunday. Tom Izzo’s team endured a choppy February, and for the moment, computer numbers suggest the Spartans are more likely a 5 seed, although they’ll have a chance to play themselves into a 3 or 4 and a more desirable sub-regional destination over the next two weeks. A very fluid situation at the bottom end of the bubble rewards Notre Dame (for the moment) after the Irish’s back-to-back wins sans Luke Harangody (is ND really a better defensive team minus big Luke?) over Pitt and Georgetown. With UConn and Marquette on deck before the Big East Tourney, the Irish are hardly home free just yet, but with UConn losing on Sunday vs. Louisville, we can justify including ND in the field for the time being.
At Providence...
2 Villanova (23-5, 9) vs. 15 Coastal Carolina (26-5, 120)... Recent slips vs. UConn, Pitt, and Syracuse have likely cost Nova a shot at a top regional seed, and the Wildcats are in danger of slipping another line or two if they drop another game before the Big East Tourney. The Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina have emerged as the team to beat in the Big South, although Winthrop and Radford figure to provided spirited opposition when conference tourney action commences this Tuesday. CC is coached by Cliff Ellis, who will be looking to tie Eddie Sutton and Lon Kruger’s marks by taking a fourth different school to the Dance (Ellis has previously taken South Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn).
7 Texas (22-7, 24) vs. 10 Illinois (18-11, 74)... Texas is lucky its slump didn’t start a few weeks earlier, or the Longhorns could have slid their way completely out of the field by the time Selection Sunday rolls around. With another guard (J’Covan Brown) perhaps on the shelf after a scary neck injury suffered in Saturday’s loss at Texas A&M, the Horns (already minus PG Dogus Balbay for the rest of the season with a knee injury) could yet slip a few more lines. As could Illinois, which put itself back in some real bubble trouble with Saturday’s loss vs. resurgent Minnesota. The Illini have some nice chips to cash on Selection Sunday (road wins at Clemson and Wisconsin should come in handy), but need to at least split this week’s pair vs. Ohio State and Wisconsin to avoid falling on the wrong side of the cut line heading into the Big Ten Tourney.
At New Orleans....
3 Vanderbilt (22-6, 15) vs. 14 Oakland (23-8, 61)... Vandy’s pair of wins over Tennessee, along with an impressive collection of scalps captured away from Nashville (including Saint Mary’s, Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and the Vols), bode well for protected seed status and a favorable sub-regional assignment, of which New Orleans would qualify. Oakland will be top seed in the upcoming Summit Tourney, but IUPUI and Oral Roberts are potentially dangerous obstacles, as well as local favorite South Dakota State for the event to be held in remote Sioux Falls, SD.
6 BYU (25-4, 22) vs. 11 Cornell (25-4, 47)... Keep in mind some of the specifics regarding BYU, which will need to play in the Thursday-Saturday rotation during the sub-regional and (if it advances) the regionals because of LDS restrictions on Sunday games. So it’s either the East or West Regionals for the Cougs, with further juggling necessitated for the sub-regionals (of which New Orleans, one of the four on a Thursday-Saturday rotation, would qualify). If BYU gets placed in the West, a trip to a very-friendly Salt Lake City site awaits for the regional, but the Cougs (looking for their first Big Dance win since 1992) might have to win the MWC Tourney in Las Vegas to get such preferential treatment. As for Cornell, the Big Red has a magic number of one to clinch another outright Ivy crown and third straight trip to the Big Dance after last Friday’s exciting win over Princeton. Expect Cornell to wrap up the Ivy in style on Friday at Brown.
SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)
At Buffalo...
1 Syracuse (27-2, 3) vs. 16 Play-in game... Even with a likely spot on the top line, the East Regional locale at the Carrier Dome will require Syracuse to advance to the Final Four from elsewhere, although it appears a very good bet to be placed in the nearby Buffalo sub-regional. At this moment, the play-in game at Dayton would likely feature the Atlantic Sun’s Campbell (19-10, 175) and the SWAC’s Jackson State (15-11, 219), whose marching band wowed ’em again at the recent Honda Battle of the Bands at Atlanta’s Georgia Dome. JSU is also the only SWAC team with an above-.500 record heading into March. Pending conference tourney results, we could easily envision the Patriot or Northeast champs displacing the Atlantic Sun’s rep in the play-in game.
8 Clemson (19-9, 38) vs. 9 Siena (23-6, 30).. .An exciting comeback win at Florida State on Sunday night got Clemson to 20 wins and assured the Tigers of no worse than an 8-8 finish in the ACC, each considered to be at-large safety markers. As for Siena, it might not want to risk a loss in the upcoming Metro-Atlantic Tourney and chance its Big Dance hopes on an at-large invitation. Although a winner in the first round the past two Big Dances, the Saints did not beat a Top 50 RPI team this season, and would prove an interesting test case for the Committee if upset by Iona, Fairfield, Niagara (which beat Siena in the regular season), or one of the other pesky MAAC contenders in Albany.
At Jacksonville...
4 Tennessee (21-7, 14) vs. 13 Saint Mary’s (24-5, 45)... After worrying about a sliding seed after that midweek loss at Florida, UT is now back in the hunt for a protected seed after Saturday’s rousing win over Kentucky at Knoxville. Wins over both Kansas and Coach Cal’s Wildcats could be enough to get the Vols a top four seed and desirable sub-regional assignment in Jacksonville (where we’ve temporarily slotted UT) or New Orleans. Saint Mary’s could avoid sweating out another Selection Sunday by winning this week’s WCC tourney at the Orleans Hotel in Las Vegas. But since Gonzaga might have other ideas, the Gaels could instead be looking forward to another uneasy week of bubble watching, and a prime candidate to be bumped out of the field entirely if upsets occur in certain conference tourneys.
5 Oklahoma State (20-8, 25) vs. 12 Old Dominion (23-8, 39)... Ok State can finally breathe a little easier after last Saturday’s win over Kansas that should punch the Cowboys’ ticket to the Big Dance. As for ODU, it will be another of those interesting test cases for the Selection Committee should it lose in what figures to be a competitive CAA Tourney beginning later this week at Richmond. The Monarchs, who won at Georgetown in December, could have effectively nailed down at least an at-large bid had they won their recent BracketBusters game at Northern Iowa. Should it lose in Richmond, working in ODU’s favor is that the CAA looked to be in line for an extra bid or two until league members began cannibalizing themselves in February. It would not be an injustice if the CAA were to be a multi-bid league, however.
At Kansas City...
2 Kansas State (24-4, 5) vs. 15 Morgan State (22-9, 109)... Lurking just off the top line is K-State, still in contention for a top seed if Duke should falter, or the Wildcats end up winning what figures to be a hellacious Big XII Tourney. An advantage to K-State and Kansas is that the Big XII event will also be taking place at the glistening new Sprint Center in Kansas City, so both could be playing at a familiar and convenient sub-regional venue. Meanwhile, Todd Bozeman’s Morgan State will be prohibitive favorites for the upcoming MEAC Tourney at Winston-Salem. The Bears, looking for a return trip to the Big Dance, held their own in a brutal non-league slate that was played almost entirely away from Baltimore.
7 Butler (26-4, 16) vs. 10 Georgia Tech (19-9, 32)... Perhaps Butler belongs a line or two higher, but a logjam of Big XII and Big East clubs in the 3-6 seed range might mean some procedural adjustments are in order. And the Bulldogs will be a sort of queen on the chess board for the Committee, which will be able to move Butler freely to make the pieces fit. We’re also not convinced the Committee is going to reward a Horizon entry with a protected seed, and we should also note that a repeat of the upset of the Bulldogs in the Horizon finale last year (when Cleveland State turned the trick) will surely knock a bubble team from elsewhere out of the at-large mix once more. Meanwhile, although it wasn’t pretty, Georgia Tech’s Saturday win over Boston College got the Yellow Jackets within one win of the magic 20 victories and no worse than 8-8 mark in the ACC; a win this week vs. either Clemson or Virginia Tech should qualify Paul Hewitt’s young and potentially dangerous team for the Dance.
At Milwaukee...
3 Wisconsin (21-7, 17) vs. 14 Wofford (23-8, 79)... Make no mistake, Wisconsin’s target all season has been a protected seed and a sub-regional assignment at the Bradley Center in nearby Milwaukee, and the Badgers still appear on course. We’re going to be very interested in developments at the SoCon Tourney, to be played at two venues in Charlotte (first and second rounds at the Bojangles Coliseum, the new name of the "old" Charlotte Coliseum that once hosted the ABA’s Carolina Cougars; a subsequent "Charlotte Coliseum" once housed the NBA Hornets but was razed before the expansion NBA Bobcats took the Hornets’ place). Wofford (currently on a 10-game win streak) beat Georgia and South Carolina in pre-league action, and was within 3 at Pitt and also close at Michigan State, but will have to repel Appalachian State, Western Carolina, and Bobby Cremins’ College of Charleston before advancing to its first-ever Big Dance.
6 Temple (24-5, 18) vs. 11 San Diego State (20-8, 44)... Temple is one of those sides that figures to be scuffling for a protected seed, and might deserve one as the top-ranking team in a very competitive A-10 race. For the moment we have the Owls at a 6 with an arrow pointed upward. Ironic if SDSU gets an assignment against Temple, pitting teams from arguably the top two mid-major leagues (sorry, A-10 and Mountain west, didn’t mean to insult either with that label). Like a year ago, however, the Aztecs are going to have to hang on by their fingernails on Selection Sunday if they don’t win the Mountain West Tourney, and hope there aren’t too many upsets in other conference tourney action.
MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis)
At Oklahoma City...
1 Kansas (27-2, 1) vs. 16 Stony Brook (21-7, 122)...Although Bill Self isn’t too happy about the result, KU’s Saturday afternoon loss at Oklahoma State isn’t enough to knock the Jayhawks off the top line. For that to happen, KU would probably have to lose once or twice more before the Big XII Tourney, then again at that event in Kansas City, to slip a line, but a sub-regional assignment at the Sprint Center still appears likely regardless. The Stony Brook Seawolves will be favored to reach their first-ever Big Dance when America East Tourney action begins later this week at Hartford, with Vermont, Maine, and Boston U. expected to provide the stiffest opposition.
8 UNLV (22-7, 40) vs. 9 UAB (23-5, 37)... By avoiding the banana peels in a recent 3-game win streak vs. teams in the bottom half of the Mountain west, UNLV has temporarily stopped the bleeding and effectively rehabilitated its at-large candidacy. A win in the regular-season final vs. Wyo on Saturday and advancement to at least the finals of the conference tourney at the Thomas & Mack Center should be enough to get Lon Kruger back to the Dance. Most expect C-USA to be a multi-bid league this March, and Mike Davis’ UAB looks to have the most solid Big Dance case of those contenders.
At Providence....
4 Maryland (21-7, 33) vs. 13 Kent State (22-8, 48).. Saturday’s double-overtime win at Virginia Tech solidifies Maryland as the ACC’s number two team and figures to put the Terps in contention for a protected seed. Kent State won a big MAC battle on Saturday vs. Miami-Ohio and will enter the upcoming MAC Tourney with a bye into the quarterfinals. A wide-open MAC Tournament begins at campus sites this Saturday but moves to Cleveland at "The Q" for the later rounds (when the Golden Flashes and other higher seeds get involved) beginning March 11.
5 Georgetown (19-8, 11) vs. 12 Utah State (22-6, 33).. We’re of the opinion that Georgetown (impressive RPI or not) now has too many losses (8 of ’em) to get a protected seed, although this assignment as a 5 at Providence is almost what the Hoyas could expect in a best-case scenario for them anyway, being that it takes place at the preferred Dunkin Donuts Center. It would be interesting to place Georgetown and Maryland in the same pod for a potential second-round matchup, especially with the schools in such close proximity and reluctant to ever schedule one another. WAC leader Utah State, however, would be no pushover, as the Aggies’ current 13-game win streak (thru Sunday) is the best in the west.
At Buffalo...
2 West Virginia (22-6, 6) vs. 15 Sam Houston State (21-6, 74)... Although we aren’t seeing WVU as a regional top seed, we can envision Bob Huggins’ boys entering the Dance as a number two, which would likely mean a preferred sub-regional assignment in Buffalo. The Mountaineers, however, might want to stop cutting so close in every outing, unless they want to risk losing a protected seed entirely. We’re not sure the Southland is quite as dangerous as it has been recently, but the league is well balanced and anything could happen in the conference tourney (which was won by an 8 seed, UT-Arlington, two years ago) to be held in the Houston suburb of Katy. Right now, Sam Houston rates the favorite over Stephen F. Austin, that same pesky UT-Arlington, and Texas A&M/Corpus Christi. Remember that the Bearkats played Kentucky pretty tough in November.
7 Missouri (21-8, 36) vs. 10 Virginia Tech (21-7, 52).. The Committee is likely to fish very deep into Big XII waters, which means that Mizzou shouldn’t worry about those few blemishes on its schedule costing it an at-large bid. That might not hold as true for VPI, cruelly denied a bid a couple of times in recent years and now worryingly slipping back into bubble trouble with three straight defeats. We think Seth Greenberg’s team (still 8-6 in the ACC) will stabilize and make the field, but all bets are off if the Hokies lose this week vs. NC State. VT could also still get hurt by somewhat-spotty computer numbers that weren’t helped by a suspect non-league pedigree.
At San Jose...
3 Ohio State (23-7, 29) vs. 14 North Texas (21-8, 126)... The Buckeyes have been on the move since Evan Turner returned from his scary neck/back injury in early January, with the only loss over the last month-plus being a recent, narrow home setback vs. full-strength Purdue. But Ohio State is on the move again and could be favored in the upcoming Big Ten Tourney now that star Robbie Hummel is out for the Boilermakers. Will Thad Matta’s team be one of the protected seeds moved far from home and out west? The Sun Belt Tourney at Hot Springs, AR looks to be a wide-open event, but recent developments suggest Johnny Jones’ hot North Texas Mean Green will be slightly favored as it tries for its second Big Dance bid in four seasons.
6 Xavier (21-7, 19) vs. 11 Florida (20-9, 46)... Xavier’s thrilling overtime win on Sunday vs. Richmond was one of the highlight games of the weekend and cements the Musketeers and their solid computer numbers into the 65-team field. We cannot say the same for Florida, which suffered a potentially damaging loss at Georgia on the heels of an uplifting win over Tennessee. For the moment, we keep the Gators in the field, but with Vanderbilt and Kentucky in the queue before SEC Tourney play commences next week in Nashville, it’s a very provisional nod.
WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City)
at New Orleans...
1 Kentucky (27-2, 4) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (21-8, 147)... Although that Saturday loss at Tennessee hurt, it still shouldn’t cost the Wildcats a spot on the top line, at least not yet. But note that John Calipari’s very young troops have cut it awfully close on many occasions this year. For the moment we suspect UK is more likely to be sent west than Syracuse, which we have kept in the Houston region. The Pollsters, er, Bobcats, from Quinnipiac have wrested the top seed in the upcoming Northeast Tourney away from the Pittsburgh Airport’s home team, Robert Morris; action in that Northeast event, to be held on campus sites (with the higher seed getting the home court), commences March 4.
8 Richmond (23-7, 26) vs. 9 Wake Forest (18-8, 28).... The shakeout in the A-10 has yet to impact the at-large prospects of Richmond, which despite its Sunday OT loss at Xavier looks to be the third-ranked entry from the loop and safely into the at-large field. We’re fairly certain we can say the same about Wake Forest...we think. The Deacs, who looked a protected seed contender two weeks ago, have run into a bad patch of form at the wrong time, with three losses in a row (including two bad losses back-to-back vs. NC State and North Carolina) temporarily holding off on Deac Big Dance reservations. Losses vs. Florida State and Clemson this week could put Wake in some real bubble trouble heading into the ACC Tourney.
At Spokane...
4 Gonzaga (24-5, 31) vs. 13 UTEP (22-5, 49)... Although teams can’t play sub-regional action on their home floor, Gonzaga can get around that technicality because of the Spokane Arena venue, which is literally down the street from campus but not the home court of the Zags, who play on campus at the cozy McCarthey Center. With so few western teams looking like protected seed candidates, we suspect Gonzaga has a good chance to nail a 4 seed and an assignment in its own neighborhood for the first weekend. We think the Committee will go at least 2-deep in C-USA, and UTEP might be moving further away from the cut line if it secures the C-USA regular-season crown. But tough games this week vs. Marshall and UAB, then the conference tourney at Tulsa, make it still very possible for the Miners (whose computer numbers at the moment aren’t quite as good as UAB’s) to be the third-rated C-USA team. Would the Selection Committee go three deep in C-USA?
5 Texas A&M (20-8, 13) vs. 12 Louisville (19-10, 41)... Making a late bid for a protected seed is Texas A&M, which beat Texas for the sixth straight time at College Station on Saturday and might even get star G Derrick Roland back from injury in time for March tourney action. Solid computer numbers give the Ags an outside chance of securing a protected seed if they continue their momentum this week vs. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Louisville continues to trade wins and losses, but Rick Pitino is probably feeling a bit better about things after Sunday’s narrow win at UConn. Finally, we think we can say that Cards have probably done enough to make the field.
At Milwaukee...
2 Purdue (24-4, 8) vs. 15 UC Santa Barbara (17-9, 105)... This now becomes a very provisional seed for Purdue, which enters a new phase with star F Robbie Hummel now out for the season with a knee injury. Sunday’s loss at Michigan State has likely cost Purdue a spot on the top line, and a drop of another seed or two could be in the offing if the Boilermakers stumble further in the next few weeks. Under shrewd HC Bob Williams, improving UCSB scored rates a slight favorite with Pacific and a few other capable longshots (including X-factor UC Davis, with its 6-7 hybrid PG Mark Payne back in action) in the upcoming Big West Tourney to be held at the cozy Anaheim Convention Center (onetime home of the ABA’s Anaheim Amigos).
7 Florida State (20-8, 35) vs. 10 Mississippi State (21-8, 57)... The Seminoles might have hurt themselves slightly in that bitter Sunday night loss vs. Clemson, but FSU has avoided enough banana peels and fared well enough in the ACC (where at worst it could finish 8-8) to feel secure about its at-large candidacy. Not sure we can say the same about MSU, but the Maroon has helped its candidacy by taking charge of the SEC West. MSU has 5 wins in its last 6 games, although it might not be able to feel comfy about things unless it wins at Auburn and takes down Tennessee (which would be a much needed marquee win) at Starkville this Saturday.
At San Jose....
3 New Mexico (27-3, 7) vs. 14 Weber State (19-9, 70)... Any doubts about New Mexico entering the Dance as a protected seed were erased in Saturday’s pulsating win at BYU. The Lobos are now the west’s top-rated team, and considering their 6-0 record vs. ranked foes, could move up as far as a 2 seed if they keep winning (and secure the Mountain West Conference Tourney crown in Las Vegas). Weber State was temporarily cooled in its regular-season finale on Sunday at Portland State but will still enter as the favorite in the upcoming Big Sky Tourney, which the Wildcats won’t have to worry about until semifinal action commences at Ogden on their own Dee Event Center court.
Baylor (22-6, 12) vs. 11 Marquette (19-9, 55)...Baylor is another team that will likely be making a case for protected seed status, and will have a shot if it can close with wins this week vs. fading Texas Tech and Texas, and avoid an early exit in the Big XII Tourney. The Bears’ best non-conference win is over Xavier, which we have also slotted as a 6 at the moment. Marquette dodged a very dangerous bullet Sunday in Newark (inside, not outside, the Pru Center) against Seton Hall, a defeat that would have put the Golden Eagles right on the cut line. Marquette will now finish above .500 in Big East play, which should be enough to keep it on the safer side of the bubble.