Bracketology Update
By Bruce Marshall
Well, we've come to the end of the line. After almost three months of Bracketology reports, they all become as quickly forgotten as most college football bowl games after Selection Sunday. This is also a time of another rite of March, that being the fretting over the final at-large teams in Big Dance field. But we'll be lucky to see any of those teams being discussed actually sticking in the field beyond sub-regional weekend.
Interestingly, we haven't yet seen any true "Bubble Busters" this March, unless another Missouri Valley rep joins surprise conference tourney winner Indiana State in the field of 68. Then we'll know the Sycamores bumped out somebody from another conference. Otherwise, there haven't been any, although there is one last chance on Sunday with Dayton having advanced to the A-10 finale at Atlantic City vs. Richmond. The Selection Committee would never disclose as much (since they never confirm "last in" or "first out" teams), but for our bracket purposes we suspect Alabama is in the biggest trouble if the Flyers win. Whatever, rest assured Bama and anyone else on the bubble will be Richmond fans on Sunday. Some might also put Penn State as a potential bubble thieve, but we have the Nittany Lions into our field regardless what happens in the Big Ten finale at Indianapolis vs. Ohio State.
Four conference tourney finals remain on Sunday, and following is a brief preview for what's at stake...
ACC... Likely at stake in another Duke-North Carolina finale is a regional top seed, somewhere; the winner gets it, and the loser gets a number two seed, likely behind Pitt in the Panthers' region. We now think Jamie Dixon's squad will be one of the four number one seeds, along with one from among the Tar Heels and Blue Devils.
SEC... Florida and Kentucky are both looking very good for protected seed (1 thru 4 regionally) status, with the Gators in the frame for as high as a 2 seed with a win over Coach Cal's Cats Sunday at the Georgia Dome.
Big Ten... Don't expect Penn State to pull a flop-er-roo as did Minnesota in last year's Big Ten finale vs. Ohio State. Talor Battle won't let Penn State take it easy, and the Nittany Lions likely approach this one as if they need it to make the field (even though we think they've already made it).
Atlantic 10... Dayton is the only consensus "Bubble Buster" left in the conference tourney field when it takes on Richmond in the A-10 finale at the old Convention hall on The Boardwalk in Atlantic City. All that is at stake for the Spiders is a better regional seed.
In or out? Here's our look at a handful of teams straddling the cut-line entering Selection Sunday...
Penn State... Now with a pair of wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, plus their fast finish in the regular season, we suspect that Ed DeChellis' Nittany Lions have done enough to make the field.
Georgia... Despite two losses in the last week to Alabama, we still think the Dawgs have a slightly better at-large case than the Tide. No bad losses, 21 wins, a decent mark in the rugged SEC East, and RPI and SOS (strength of schedule) numbers in the low 40s suggest UGa should still get a look. And if the Dawgs do get the call, we would watch out for them next week.
Alabama... The Tide could have at least used a few style points in Saturday's SEC semifinal vs. Kentucky; instead, Bama didn't deliver any in a 72-58 loss. But we're thinking the Committee will value the Tide's comfy win margin atop the SEC West (admittedly in a down year), it's solid finish the second half of the season, and wins over Kentukcy, Tennessee, and Georgia twice to overcome some lesser non-conference and RPI numbers remember, Bama missed then-injured star F JaMychal Green for a few early-season contests. The Tide also has a 16-0 mark at home in Tuscaloosa this season, but the only way Bama plays again at Coleman Coliseum is in the NIT.
Colorado... We moved the Buffs to the wrong side of the cut-line last night to make room for Penn State. CU is still in with a shout of sneaking into the field, with its three wins over Kansas State and another over Texas. Upon inspection, however, two of those wins over K-State were when the Wildcats were floundering, and there are plenty of other holes in this profile. CU is hardly a an at-large shoe-in.
Illinois... Sorry, Illini fans, we aren't buying the case. Although the win over North Carolina (before the Heels turned into...North Carolina) way back in the ACC-Big Ten challenge remains a nice chip to cash with the Selection Committee, we can't overlook 10 losses in Illinois' last 16 games, essentially half of the season. Those are not at-large types of numbers, and the early exit in the Big Ten Tourney vs. Michigan didn't help.
Southern Cal... We know about all of the big-name scalps claimed by SC (Texas, at Tennessee, UCLA, Arizona, at Washington), but almost all of those are canceled out by some awful losses vs. TCU, Bradley, Rider, Oregon State, and Oregon...twice. And now HC Kevin O'Neill is in hot water after being involved in a "verbal altercation" with a fan at last week's Pac-10 Tourney. We suspect the 14 losses (six to sub-100 entries) is going to make this selection too hard to justify.
Well, it's been fun the past three months with Bracketology, and we look forward to starting again next December. In the meantime, here are our final projections as of Sunday morning; stay tuned for the Selection Show later this afternoon on CBS.
*Notes
East 12 play-in game: Alabama vs. UAB
Southeast SE 16 play-in game: Hampton vs. UNC-Asheville
Southwest SW 16 play-in game: UTSA vs. Alabama State
West West 12 play-in game: Georgia vs. Saint Mary's
Last four in: Alabama, UAB, Georgia, Saint Mary's
First four out: Colorado, Illinois, Southern Cal, Boston College
Next four out: Missouri State, Wichita State, Harvard, UTEP