Bubble Update
The Gold Sheet
Didn't they just play the Super Bowl?
Yes, they did, but the calendar says late February. Pitchers and catchers have already reported to spring training sites. The Winter Olympics are ready to wrap up this weekend.
So, ready or not, March is upon us, which means the college hoops season is entering its home stretch. And conference tournaments are now going to begin to move on stage, er, court.
In this issue, we'll provide a look at the lower-echelon Division I leagues and their tournament action, most of which takes place a week before the "big boys" tip it off in the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, and other major conferences. More than ever, it's worthwhile to pay attention to these leagues, such as the Southern Conference and Metro-Atlantic that will likely be sending multiple teams to postseason events, especially now that the CBI (College Basketball Invitational) and CIT (CollegeInsider.com Tourney) have provided spots for an extra 32 teams beyond the Big Dance and NIT. And even for the lesser leagues that don't send extra teams to the NIT, CBI, or CIT, it's a good idea to at least get a feel for the conference tourney champions, and the wagering opportunities which they will provide as No. 14, 15, or 16 seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. We'll continue with more conference tournament previews over the next two weeks leading up to our Big Dance sub-regional edition March 15.
It's worth noting that many of these entries from the lower-echelon leagues are not as mysterious as they used to be, especially now that most sports books post lines on "added" games from the Metro-Atlantic, Big Sky, and SoCon during the course of the regular season. Indeed, lots of handicappers and "hoop junkies" we know in Las Vegas especially enjoy the lighter Friday night cards that often feature Metro-Atlantic, Big Sky, and Ivy action. And, as we've seen in recent years with the likes of Siena, Davidson, Bucknell, and Winthrop, some of these teams from the lower-echelon leagues can really play ball. This March, we'd pay close attention to a variety of entries on display in the next ten days that could cause problems in the Big Dance, NIT, or one of the other postseason events.
Thanks to constant input from well-placed sources around the country, we've been keeping close tabs on several "added" teams since November that might warrant a harder look in March. Siena, which has won first-round NCAA games each of the past two years, has four upperclassmen (G Ronald Moore, Fs Edwin Ubiles & Alex Franklin, and C Ryan Rossiter) who started each of the past two seasons and again rates the favorite in the Metro-Atlantic Tourney that begins next Friday in Albany. But efforts by other MAAC entries in the recent Bracket Busters (especially Iona and Niagara) suggest that the Saints could have their hands full in the conference tourney. In the Big Sky, we've been paying close attention to Weber State, which returned four starters from a 21-win NIT entry last year and has drawn clear to win the Sky's regular-season crown and earn the honor of hosting the conference tournament at the Wildcats' Dee Events Center. But stiff opposition in the Big Sky Tourney could come from another veteran entry, Northern Colorado, featuring a dynamic backcourt duo in Gs Will Figures (son of former football star Deon Figures) and Devon Beitzel. Beitzel, by the way, has missed recent action with a broken foot, although HC Tad Boyle is hopeful he'll be ready by March 9, when the Bears will begin Big Sky Tourney play in the semifinals. Note that UNC won handily at Hawaii, Air Force, and TCU in pre-league play, whipped Colorado State and San Jose State in Greeley, and came within a point of Oklahoma at Norman. As for Weber State, the Wildcats were not out of their depth in competitive pre-conference losses vs. likely NCAA-bound Utah State and UNLV, and beat Utah at Ogden.
The most competitive of these early tourneys, however, could be the SoCon event, this year taking place at two sites in Charlotte (read more on the specifics below), and featuring several entries with noteworthy non-league credentials (Wofford knocked off South Carolina and lost by only 3 at Pitt; Western Carolina won at Louisville and beat Duquesne at home; Bobby Cremins' College of Charleston won its BracketBusters game at George Mason after earlier knocking off North Carolina). Others to watch could be the MEAC's Morgan State, which survived a brutal non-conference slate played almost entirely away from its Baltimore base, and won at Arkansas in late November, and arguably the nation's hottest team, runaway Ohio Valley leader Murray State, which entered Thursday's game at Morehead State sharing the nation's longest win streak with Butler at 17 games. Note that OVC entries covered the pointspread in all four of their postseason chances a year ago beyond their conference tourney. Meanwhile, the Summit League's Oral Roberts upset Big-Dance bound Missouri in early December, but the Eagles probably rate no better than the third choice behind regular-season champ Oakland and dangerous IUPUI in the Summit Tourney, which begins March 9 at Sioux Falls, SD.
We've listed below, by conference alphabetical order, upcoming tournament specifics for those lower-profile Division I leagues. Also included are any teams that enjoy home-court tourney edges; the top contenders in each loop, noted by italics, with any clear-cut favorite or co-favorite accompanied by an *; and last season's conference results in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT. Before Selection Sunday, we'll also review how these leagues have fared in recent Big Dance action.
March Madness, here we go!
AMERICA EAST...First round, quarterfinals, and semis March 4-7 at Chase Arena, West Hartford, CT (home court of Hartford); final March 13 at home of highest remaining seed. Top contenders-Stony Brook, Vermont, Maine, Boston U. Last year...NCAA-Binghamton (+22) lost vs. Duke, 86-62; CBI-Vermont (+51/2) won at UW Green Bay, 76-72; lost (pick 'em) in OT at Oregon State, 71-70.
ATLANTIC SUN...Tourney March 3-6 at University Center, Macon, GA (home court of Mercer). Top contenders-Campbell, Jacksonville, Belmont, Lipscomb, East Tennessee State, Mercer. Last year...NCAA-East Tennessee State (+20) lost, but covered, vs. Pittsburgh, 72-62; NIT-Jacksonville (+15) lost at Florida, 84-62; CIT-Belmont (+51/2) won at Evansville, 92-76; lost (+6) at Old Dominion, 70-62.
BIG SKY...First round (3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5) March 7 at home of higher-seeded team; regular-season champ Weber State will host semifinals and final March 9-10 at Dee Event Center, Ogden, UT. Top contenders-Weber State*, Northern Colorado, Montana. Last year...NCAA-Portland State (+101/2) lost vs. Xavier, 77-59; NIT- Weber State (+111/2) lost at San Diego State, 65-49.
BIG SOUTH...Quarterfinals March 2 at home of highest seed; semis March 4 at regular-season champion (Coastal Carolina or Winthrop); finals March 6 at home of highest-remaining seed. Top contenders-Coastal Carolina, Winthrop, Radford, UNC-Asheville; Presbyterian ineligible as it transitions to Division I. Last year...NCAA-Radford (+251/2) lost vs. North Carolina, 101-58; CIT-Liberty (-3) won vs. Rider, 79-64; lost (-3) vs. James Madison, 88-65.
METRO ATLANTIC...Tourney March 5-8 at Times Union Center, Albany, NY. First round pits seeds 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9; winners advance to quarterfinals, and so forth. Top contenders-Siena*, Iona, Fairfield, St. Peter's, Niagara. Last year...NCAA-Siena (+3) won vs. Ohio State in double OT, 74-72; lost (+12), but covered, vs. Louisville, 79-72; NIT-Niagara (+31/2) lost at Rhode Island, 68-62; CBI-Rider (+3) lost at Liberty, 79-64.
MEAC...Tourney March 8-12 at Lawrence Joel Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC. First round pits seed 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9; winners advance to quarterfinals, and so forth. Top contenders-Morgan State*, Delaware State, South Carolina State, Bethune-Cookman. Last year...NCAA-Morgan State (+16) lost vs. Oklahoma, 82-54.
NORTHEAST...Quarterfinals March 4, semis March 7, final March 10, all at home of highest seeds. Top contenders-Robert Morris, Quinnipiac, Mount Saint Mary's, Long Island. Last year...NCAA-Robert Morris (+17) lost, but covered, vs. Michigan State, 77-62; CIT-Mount Saint Mary's (+31/2) lost at James Madison, 69-58.
OHIO VALLEY...Quarterfinals March 2 at campus sites; semifinals and final March 5-7 at Sommet Center, Nashville, TN (home of NHL Nashville Predators, but not the home court of Nashville-based Tennessee State, which plays at the Gentry Complex). Top contenders-Murray State*, Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky, Austin Peay. Last Year...NCAA-Morehead State (-3) won play-in game vs. Alabama State, 58-43; lost (+21), but covered, vs Louisville, 74-54; NIT-UT-Martin (+12) lost, but covered, at Auburn, 87-82; CIT-Austin Peay (+9) lost, but covered, at Bradley, 81-74.
PATRIOT...Quarterfinals March 3, semifinals March 7, final March 12, all at home of higher seed. Top contenders-Lehigh, Bucknell, Lafayette, Navy, Army. Last Year...NCAA-American (+16) lost, but covered, vs. Villanova, 80-67.
SOUTHERN...First round and quarterfinals March 5-6 at Bojangles Coliseum (previously called the "old" Charlotte Coliseum, once a home court of the ABA's Carolina Cougars, and Independence Arena), Charlotte, NC; semifinals and finals March 7-8 at Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC (home of the NBA Charlotte Bobcats). Top contenders-College of Charleston, Wofford, Appalachian State, Western Carolina. Last year...NCAA-Chattanooga (+201/2) lost vs. UConn, 103-47; NIT-Davidson (+3) won at South Carolina, 70-63; lost (+5) at Saint Mary's, 80-68; CBI-College of Charleston (+1) won at Troy, 93-91; lost (+41/2), but covered, at Richmond, 74-72; CIT-The Citadel (+10) lost, but covered, at Old Dominion, 67-59.
SOUTHLAND...Quarterfinals and semifinals March 10-11, final March 13, all at the Merrell Center, Katy, TX. Top contenders-Sam Houston State*, Stephen F. Austin, SE Louisiana, Texas-Arlington, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Last Year...NCAA-Stephen F. Austin (+12) lost vs. Syracuse, 59-44.
SWAC...Tourney March 10-13 at Fair Park Arena, Birmingham, AL. Top contenders-Jackson State*, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Prairie View, Alabama State. Last year...NCAA-Alabama State (+3) lost play-in game vs. Morehead State, 58-43.
SUMMIT...Tourney March 7-10 at Sioux Falls Arena, Sioux Falls, SD (not the home court of nearby, Brookings-based South Dakota State, which plays its home games at Frost Arena). The Summit League was formerly known as Mid-Continent Conference; Centenary ineligible. Top contenders-Oakland*, IUPUI, Oral Roberts, South Dakota State, IPFW. Last year...NCAA-North Dakota State (+10) lost vs. Kansas, 84-74; CIT-Oakland (+41/2) won vs. Kent State, 80-74; lost (+3), but covered, at Bradley, 76-75.
MIDWEEK "BUBBLE" UPDATE
There have been a few interesting "bubble" developments in the first half of the week, with a couple of familiar faces resurfacing as possible at-large candidates.
1) Here comes UConn!...The Huskies, who looked NIT bound two weeks ago, have forged a dramatic turnaround since HC Jim Calhoun returned to the sidelines. Monday's 73-62 win over 8th-ranked West Virginia at Hartford was UConn's third on the trot and second in a week over a Top 10 team (Villanova fell, 84-75, the previous Monday). More consistent play from Gs Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson has helped in the recent uptick. The Huskies, 3-4 in Calhoun's absence, are 3-1 since his return, and when counting a win over then-number one Texas back on January 23, UConn now has three wins over Top Ten teams this season. If the Huskies can beat Louisville on Sunday, and earn no worse than a split vs. Notre Dame and South Florida before the Big East Tourney begins, they ought to be in pretty good at-large shape.
2) Notre Dame still breathing...The Fighting Irish have no room for error, and they made sure about taking care of business Wednesday night vs. visiting Pitt, dousing the hot Panthers, 68-53, at South Bend. More impressive was the fact ND won the game without sr. PF Luke Harangody, who missed his third straight game with a bruised knee. But HC Mike Brey's bunch slowed down the pace and used great balance (Tim Abromaitis 17 points, Ben Hansbrough 15, and Tory Jackson 14) and long-range shooting (canning 10 triples) to pound the Panthers and live for another day on the bubble. Brey, who is on record as saying that he thinks a 9-9 record in conference play should be good enough to get his Irish an at-large bid, needs 2 wins in his final 3 games vs. Georgetown, hot UConn, and Marquette (no easy feat) to see if he might be right.
3) Minnesota off the bubble?...The Gophers were making a belated bid to get back in the bubble discussion, and could have made a real statement if they had beaten Purdue at The Barn on Wednesday night after dispatching Wisconsin and Indiana in recent outings. Instead, Tubby Smith's crew came up 1 point short, bowing 59-58 to the Boilermakers and all but assuring that the only way Minnesota will get to the Big Dance is by winning the Big Ten Tourney at Indianapolis in two weeks. Purdue, which went on a 10 minute scoreless stretch bridging the two halves, finally went ahead to stay on Keaton Grant's jump shot with 7.7 seconds to play, but the bigger news was the loss of star jr. F Robbie Hummel, who went down in the first half with a torn ACL in his right knee. Purdue, which was looking like a Final Four team the past few weeks with Hummel (15.8 ppg) in fine form, must now adjust to this potential lethal blow for its title hopes.
4) Northeastern and William & Mary off the bubble?...It has been a strange week in the CAA, and a few stunning upsets by road dogs might have put to the sword to the remote Big Dance at-large hopes still being harbored by Northeastern and William & Mary. The Huskies, one of the nation's hottest teams in January when running off an 11-game win streak, lost for the third time in four games when Hofstra, getting some nice balance (three scoring in double figures) behind star G Charles Jenkins and his 20 points, notched a 73-62 stunner in Boston. The Pride also owned the boards by a 37-24 count as Tom Pecora's squad, now on a 5-game win streak, served notice that it might have to be reckoned with in next week's CAA Tourney at Richmond. Meanwhile, William & Mary's at-large dreams were likely ended by 14-point underdog Towson in a startling 83-77 Wednesday night defeat at Williamsburg, the sort of bad loss (along with others earlier in Colonial play vs. UNC-Wilmington & James Madison) that negates some of the Tribe's impressive non-conference work. William & Mary now almost assuredly has to win it all next week in Richmond to get an NCAA bid. Finally, the strange developments this week in the CAA were capped by aforementioned Wilmington's surprise 75-69 win at Drexel. When the smoke cleared, George Mason (which survived by 2 at Delaware) and Virginia Commonwealth (a 14-point home winner over James Madison) felt relieved to escape the midweek games unscathed, but one has to wonder if the cannibalization in the CAA will limit it to only one NCAA bid after several informed observers believed it could be a 2 or 3-bid NCAA conference heading into January.
5) Shakeout in A-10?...The Atlantic 10 remains one of the more-compelling stories of this season, but its dream of landing as many as five or six Big Dance bids seems to be fading. Wednesday night was a tough one for a couple of A-10 entries desperately trying to hang on the periphery of the bubble. Combative Dayton, which played a difficult non-conference slate (including close losses vs. Top Ten Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico squads) and hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points all season, went down to another tough defeat at Temple in a tedious 49-41 chess match favoring the Owls. That gives the Flyers three poorly-timed setbacks in their last four games and slides them further down the A-10 table (Dayton currently sits far off the pace in 7th place, which will not interest the Selection Committee). Meanwhile, Rick Majerus' Saint Louis, quietly surging the second half of the season, absorbed a bitter 73-71 home loss vs. Xavier that dealt a severe blow to its at-large hopes that had improved significantly over the past month. The Bills had a lot of ground to make up after a nondescript first half of the campaign featuring no significant non-conference wins and some potentially-hurtful losses vs. Iowa State, Georgia, and Missouri State. At this stage, we'd say that only Temple, Richmond, and Xavier look like solid A-10 bets for the Big Dance, with Rhode Island, Dayton, Saint Louis, and Charlotte still somewhere on the bubble. Nonetheless, the Flyers and Billikens will want to be avoided by A-10 contenders when conference tourney action commences at Atlantic City in two weeks.