Bubble Update
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Following is a late February look at the major "board" conferences and their chances of sending multiple entries to the NCAA Tournament.
We've divided the teams into three categories--Solid, Looking Good, and Bubble.
Solid is self-explanatory.
Looking Good teams can expect an NCAA invitation as long as they don't slump badly in the next few weeks.
Bubble teams, however, remain at the mercy of the Tourney Committee, and desperately need every win to keep their Big Dance hopes alive.
Keep in mind that nearly every Division I team can qualify for an automatic Big Dance berth by winning its conference tournament. With the Big Ten finally relenting early in the last decade, and the Pac-10 (12) re-instituting its tourney in 2002 after a 12-year hiatus, the Ivy League remains the lone conference tourney holdout and even the Ivies are now talking about conducting their own postseason bash in the near future!
Stay tuned for further developments.
In the meantime, as always, the number of upsets in conference tournaments can alter the look of the Big Dance. Also included below are conference tourney sites and dates; Conference Power Rankings (thru Feb. 21); and last year's postseason participants, including NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT action.
Note that when referencing last year's NCAA Tourney, we have reverted to the new/old designations, wherein the play-in games are referred to as the First Four, the sub-regionals referred to as the first and second rounds, etc, as the NCAA has also thankfully changed back to its former designations.
AMERICAN
Looking Good...UConn. Bubble...Cincinnati, Houston, Temple, Tulsa . Conference Power Rating-7th. Tourney March 10-13 at Amway Center, Orlando, FL. Last year...NCAA-2 (Cincinnati-second round, SMU); NIT-3 (Temple-semifinals, Tulsa-second round, UConn). Notes...The bubble looks crowded in the American, though most project three or four league reps to land on the safe side of the cut line on Selection Sunday. Remember that SMU is on NCAA probation and is ineligible for postseason competition, including the American Tourney.
ACC
Solid...North Carolina, Virginia, Miami-Florida, Duke, Notre Dame. Looking Good...Pittsburgh. Bubble...Clemson, Syracuse. Conference Power Rating-2nd. Tourney March 9-13 at Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. Last year...NCAA-6 (Duke-Champion, Notre Dame-Elite Eight, Louisville-Elite Eight, NC State-Sweet 16, North Carolina-Sweet 16, Virginia-second round); NIT-2 (Miami-Fla.-Runner-up, Pittsburgh). Notes...There is a decent chance that the ACC will get eight Big Dance bids on Selection Sunday. Louisville has self-imposed penalties and will not be competing in the postseason, including the ACC Tourney.
ATLANTIC TEN
Solid...Dayton. Looking Good...Saint Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth. Bubble...George Washington, St. Bonaventure. Conference-8th. Tourney March 9-13 at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY. Last year...NCAA-3 (Dayton-Second Round, Davidson, Virginia Commonwealth); NIT-3 (Richmond-Quarterfinals, George Washington-Second Round, Rhode Island-Second Round). Notes...Though VCU currently leads the A-10 standings, Dayton's non-conference accomplishments have it rated slightly higher than the Rams and St. Joe's, though the latter two both appear likely to land NCAA Tourney bids. GWU and St. Bonaventure can expect to ride the bubble into Selection Sunday.
BIG EAST
Solid...Villanova, Xavier. Looking good... Providence, Seton Hall. Bubble...Butler, Creighton, Marquette. Conference-5th. Tourney March 9-12 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY. Last year...NCAA-6 (Xavier-Sweet 16, Villanova-Second Round, Georgetown-Second Round, Butler-Second Round, Providence, St. John's). Notes...Seton Hall avoided a banana peel on Sunday at St. John's and moved into the "Looking Good" category. Villanova and Xavier appear to have good chances of ending up as top regional seeds.
BIG TEN
Solid...Maryland, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue. Looking Good...Wisconsin. Bubble...Michigan, Ohio State. Conference-4th. Tourney March 9-13 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN. Last year...NCAA-7 (Wisconsin-Runner-up, Michigan State-Final Four, Iowa-Second Round, Maryland-Second Round, Ohio State-Second Round, Indiana, Purdue); NIT-1 (Illinois). Notes...The Big Ten is likely to compete with the ACC and Big 12 for most spots in the NCAA Tourney.
BIG 12
Solid...Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State, West Virginia Looking Good...Texas. Bubble...Texas Tech. Conference-1st. Notes...Tourney March 9-12 at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO. Last year...NCAA-7 (Oklahoma-Sweet 16, West Virginia-Sweet 16, Kansas-Second Round, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas). Notes...For the second consecutive year, the Big 12 is the top-rated conference in late February. But note that last season proved a disappointment in the Big Dance when four of the seven league invitees lost right off the bat, and only Oklahoma and West Virginia advanced as far as the Sweet 16.
BIG WEST
Bubble...Hawaii. Conference-13th. Notes...Tourney March 10-12 at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA, home of the NHL Ducks. Last year...NCAA-1 (UC Irvine); NIT-1 (UC Davis); CBI-1 (UC Santa Barbara. Notes...Hawaii was hit with NCAA probation in December, but the Rainbow Warriors are not scheduled to be ineligible for the postseason until next season.
COLONIAL
Bubble...UNC-Wilmington. Conference-10th. Tourney March 4-7 at Royal Farms Baltimore Arena, Baltimore, MD. Last year...NCAA-1 (Northeastern); NIT-1 (William & Mary); CBI-1 (Hofstra); CIT-2 (James Madison, UNC-Wilmington). Notes...After a long run at the Richmond Coliseum, the tourney will be played for the third straight year in Baltimore at the Royal Farms Arena, once known as Baltimore Civic Center in the '60s and early '70s when it was the home of the NBA Baltimore Bullets.
CONFERENCE USA
Bubble...UAB. Conference-22nd. Notes...Tourney March 8-12 at Birmingham-Jefferson Civic Center, Birmingham, AL (not the home court of UAB, which plays at Gene Bartow Arena). Last year...NCAA-1 (UAB-Second Round); NIT-3 (Old Dominion-Semifinals, La Tech-Quarterfinals, UTEP); CIT-1 (Middle Tennessee). Notes...With an NCAA investigation underway, Southern Miss has self-imposed a postseason ban for the second consecutive season.
HORIZON
Bubble...Valparaiso. Conference-19th. Tourney March 5-8 at Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI. Last year...NCAA-1 (Valparaiso); NIT-1 (Green Bay); CIT-2 (Cleveland State-Second Round, Oakland). Notes...After years of being conducted at campus sites, the Horizon Tourney moves into a new home in Detroit at the Joe Louis Arena, home of the NHL Red Wings, for the next two years. In 2018, the tourney is slated to move into the new Detroit Events Center, currently under construction.
MID-AMERICAN
Bubble...Akron. Conference-13th. Tourney first round March 7 at campus sites; quarters, semis, and Final March 10-12 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH. Last year...NCAA-1 (Buffalo); NIT-1 (Central Michigan); CIT-3 (Kent State-Third Round, Bowling Green-Second Round, Western Michigan); CBI-1 (Eastern Michigan). Notes...The MAC has not sent multiple teams to the Big Dance since 1999, when Kent State and Miami-Ohio qualified.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Looking Good...Wichita StateBubble...Evansville, Northern Iowa. Conference-11th. Notes...Tourney ("Arch Madness") March 3-6 at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO. Last year...NCAA-2 (Wichita State-Sweet 16, Northern Iowa-Second Round); NIT-1 (Illinois State-Second Round); CBI-1 (Loyola-Chicago-Champion); CIT-1 (Evansville-Champion). Notes...Yes, you are reading that correctly above, Valley teams won both the CBI (Loyola-Chicago) and CIT (Evansville) last spring!
MOUNTAIN WEST
Bubble...San Diego State. Conference-9th. Notes...Tourney March 9-12 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV (home court of UNLV). Last year...NCAA-3 (San Diego State-Second Round, Wyoming, Boise State-First Four); NIT-1 (Colorado State). Notes...For the first time since it was formed in 1999, the Mountain West could be a one-bid league for the NCAA Tourney. San Diego State appears the only entry warranting Big Dance at-large consideration.
PAC-12
Solid...Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Southern Cal, Cal. Bubble...Colorado, Washington, UCLA. Conference-3rd. Tourney March 9-12 at MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Last year...NCAA-4 (Arizona-Elite Eight, UCLA-Sweet 16, Utah-Sweet 16, Oregon-Second Round) NIT-2 (Stanford-Champion, Arizona State-Second Round); CBI-1 (Colorado-Second round). Notes...With non-conference wins over Kentucky and on the road at Gonzaga, plus a win over Arizona, we give UCLA the benefit of the doubt and, place it on the extreme edge of the bubble despite its underwhelming 15-12 SU record.
SEC
Solid...Kentucky, South Carolina, Texas A&M. Bubble...Alabama, Florida, LSU, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt. Conference-6th. Tourney March 9-13 at Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN (home of the NHL Predators). Last year...NCAA-5 (Kentucky-Final Four, Arkansas-Second Round, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia); NIT-3 (Vanderbilt-Quarterfinals,, Alabama-Second Round, Texas A&M-Second Round). Notes...The SEC is the current unofficial "bubble champion" with five entries straddling the Big Dance cut line as of late February.
SUN BELT
Bubble...UA-Little Rock. Conference - 20th. Tourney March 10-13 at Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA. Last year...NCAA-1 (Georgia State-Second Round); CIT-2 (ULM-Runner-up, UL-Lafayette-Third Round). Notes...Should UA-Little Rock lose in the conference tourney at New Orleans, the Belt could become a multi-bid league for the first time since 2008, when Western Kentucky and South Alabama qualified.
WEST COAST
Looking Good...Saint Mary's. Bubble...BYU, Gonzaga. Conference-12th. Notes...Tourney March 3-8 at the Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Last year...NCAA-2 (Gonzaga-Elite Eight, BYU-First Four); NIT-1 (Saint Mary); CBI-1 (Pepperdine); CIT-1 (Portland). Notes...With last Saturday's win at Gonzaga giving it a regular-season sweep over the Zags and likely the top seed in the upcoming conference tourney, Saint Mary's Big Dance prospects look good. As for Gonzaga, it appears at risk of missing the Dance for the first time since 1998 if it can't win in Las Vegas.