Bucks-Hawks Outlook
By Brian Edwards
**No. 3 Atlanta vs. 6 Milwaukee
Series Price: Atlanta (-600) Milwaukee (+400)
Series Format: 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: After a nine-year absence from the postseason, Atlanta is back in the playoffs for the third consecutive year. GM Rick Sund did an outstanding job last offseason, acquiring Jamal Crawford for a bag of peanuts and adding a veteran ‘big’ in Joe Smith. Also, he was able to re-sign three key free agents – Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia and Marvin Williams.
The result was a 53-win season and a No. 3 seed. Crawford was instant offense off the bench all year, averaging 18.0 points per game. Joe Johnson continued to play like the All-Star that he is, averaging 21.3 points, 4.9 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game. The improvement of young studs like Josh Smith (15.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG and 4.2 APG) and Al Horford (14.2 PPG and 9.9 RPG) continued. In fact, Horford earned his first invite to the All-Star Game and Smith was considered the biggest snub.
Bibby’s numbers and minutes waned, but he’s still one of the league’s premier shooters from 3-point range who has made clutch shots galore during the playoffs in his career. Mo Evans and Pachulia don’t have big numbers, but both players would start for a slew of other NBA squads. In other words, Mike Woodson doesn’t lose a whole lot when he turns to his second unit.
Milwaukee is back in the postseason for the first time since the days of ‘Big Dog’ Robinson, Sam Cassell and Ray Allen, who took the team to the Eastern Conference finals in 2001. Scott Skiles has done a masterful job for the Bucks, who would’ve most likely garnered the No. 5 seed if not for Andrew Bogut’s season-ending elbow injury on April 3.
Skiles’ club is without perhaps its two best players in Bogut and Michael Redd, who has one of the league’s sweetest shooting strokes but also went down with a season-ending injury. Rookie guard Brandon Jennings has been a huge factor, averaging 15.5 points and 5.7 assists per game. With Redd going down well before the All-Star break, Milwaukee traded for John Salmons (15.4 PPG) and inked veteran guard Jerry Stackhouse, who has loads of playoff experience and a nasty streak. Both have turned out to be great finds.
Gambling Notes: The ‘over’ has hit in eight consecutive head-to-head meetings between these former division rivals (think back to the days of Paul Mokeski and Sidney Moncrief). In the three encounters this year, they combined for the following scoring outputs: 200, 193 and 208. The ‘over’ went 25-16 for Atlanta in its home games at Philips Arena.
Milwaukee has been dynamite as a road underdog this season, compiling a 21-11 spread record in 32 such spots. Even better, the Bucks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road ‘dog. They cashed tickets at a 28-12-1 ATS clip on the road this year.
Outlook: I like the Hawks to win this series in five games. With that said, Milwaukee might be the team to look at for our purposes. The Bucks will be catching a bunch of points at Philips, as evidenced by the number we see in Game 1. And, as previously mentioned, they’ve been nothing short of sensational when catching points on the road.
Future Bets: I don’t think you risk the minus-600 price for the Hawks in this series, but I’m extremely confident that they advance to the second round for the second straight season. If anything, perhaps make a small play on Atlanta to win the East or win it all. The payout for getting to the NBA Finals would be 10/1 for the Hawks, while winning it all would result in a 25/1 return (risk $100 to win $2,500).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
ESPN Boston's Chris Forsberg reported late Friday afternoon that Celtics' point guard Rajon Rondo was hospitalized for IV work due to flu-like symptoms. Boston head coach Doc Rivers said, “I don’t know how he’s going to feel. I don’t anticipate him feeling great. He’s throwing up and all that.”
I think bettors should take a flyer on Dwight Howard at 7/1 odds to win NBA Finals MVP honors at BoDog.com.
Atlanta’s Joe Johnson has 38/1 odds to be the NBA Finals MVP, while Josh Smith’s number is 48/1 (per BoDog.com).
Atlanta has won six of its last eight games against the Bucks, posting a 5-3 spread record.
The Hawks have never advanced past the second round of the NBA playoffs in franchise history.
Crawford, a nine-year veteran who played on horrible teams with the Bulls, Knicks and Warriors before coming to Atlanta, will be making his postseason debut in Game 1.
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