Bulls-Pacers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Indiana Pacers
Skinny: It took 13 seasons, but the Bulls are back as the top seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time since Michael Jordan's last championship in 1998. Chicago was not expected to make this kind of this fast with Boston, Miami, and Orlando are trying to get the number one seed heading into the season. However, the arrival of Tom Thibadeau as head coach and key free agent signings of Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver from Utah have boosted this team to a league-best 62-20 record.
It's tough to mention the Bulls without point guard and MVP candidate Derrick Rose, who averaged career highs in ppg (25), rebounds (4.1), and assists (7.7) this season. Chicago cleaned up within its division by going 15-1 against foes from the Central, but the lone loss came to the team its facing the opening round of the playoffs.
The Indiana Pacers are the only below .500 team that qualified for the postseason (37-45), as this team looks to pull a major upset in the first round. The Pacers went through a coaching change as Jim O'Brien was fired on January 30 following a 17-27 start, replaced by assistant Frank Vogel, who finished the season at 20-18. Vogel made the Pacers a more uptempo squad as Indiana topped the 100-point mark in each of the first 12 games since the coaching change.
Chicago's defense frustrated opponents all season long by limiting teams to 91.3 ppg, second in the league behind Boston. The Bulls led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage (43%), while holding teams to less than 100 points on 63 occasions. In three of four meetings, the Bulls' defense did its job against the Pacers by limiting them 89 points or less.
Pacers' leading scorer Danny Granger missed the first meeting between these teams with a sprained left ankle on December 13 at the United Center, a 92-73 Bulls' thrashing as nine-point favorites. Chicago limited Indiana to 32 second-half points and 35% shooting from the floor for the night, the sixth straight win for the Bulls at the time. Boozer put up his best game after missing the first 15 contests with a hand injury by pulling down 18 rebounds and scoring 22 points.
Indiana got Granger back the second time around at Conseco Fieldhouse on January 14, but it wasn't enough as the Pacers fell, 99-86 as short home underdogs. The Pacers once again struggled from the field by shooting 32%, while Granger made eight of 23 shots for a team-high 22 points. This loss starting a six-game skid for the Pacers, who were on their way to missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season.
O'Brien was let go after the Pacers got blown out at the United Center, 110-89 on January 29. The Bulls shot nearly 48% from the field, while getting another double-double from Boozer (24 points, 10 rebounds). After the coaching change to Vogel, the Pacers were ready to make a playoff run at the bottom of the shaky Eastern Conference.
Indiana won nine of next 12 games when Vogel took over to become a threat as a playoff team in the East. One of the biggest victories came at home against the Bulls on March 18, a wild 115-108 overtime triumph as four-point underdogs. Things seemed to fall apart in the final seconds of regulation when Rose was fouled on a three-pointer and nailed all three free throws to tie the game. The Pacers overcame the 42-point night from Rose as Tyler Hansbrough put up a 29-point, 12-rebound effort to finally get Indiana over the hump against Chicago.
Gambling Notes: Surprisingly, the Bulls were a solid covering machine by compiling a 49-31-2 ATS record, while going 15-12 ATS as a road favorite. Chicago profited with a 21-15-1 ATS mark as home 'chalk,' while putting together a 15-10 ledger to the 'under' when laying at least 6 ½ points.
The Pacers didn't help backers with a 12-19-2 ATS mark as road underdogs, but Indiana was 2-12 ATS with no rest when getting points on the road, which won't apply in the playoffs. Indiana won just four of 12 games as a home underdog, while going 6-6 ATS when getting points at Conseco.
Series Outlook: Only one time has a top seed lost in this round in the Eastern Conference and it happened in the strike-shortened season of 1999 when the Knicks eliminated the Heat. The Bulls will have the target on their backs during the playoffs, but it may be asking too much for Indiana to pull off four victories. Chicago will advance to the second round in five games over Indiana.
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