Capping Conference Tourneys
By Bill McBride
Covers.com
The mid-majors began March Madness this week, as the small conference tournaments tipped off. But we know you’re waiting for the big boys to show up next week.
Ahh yes, those casual weekday afternoons, when bettors can drift away from their normal jobs and routines and play a game or two, or a future, in the middle of the day when you’re boss isn’t looking.
But which route do you choose? Do you lean on the chalk, thinking that a heavy favorite has too much to lose to not play well headed into the big tournament? Or do you ride a middling team, on the cusp of the Big Dance, that needs a strong showing on national television? A puzzling debate for sure.
So, let’s help. As we near the major tournaments from the BCS leagues, let’s analyze their history over the past three seasons:
Big East:
LAST THREE CHAMPIONS & SEEDS: No. 9 UConn, No. 3 West Virginia, No. 1 Louisville
THE SKINNY: Competition and travel in this super conference is fierce in the regular season, and it often leads to very strong teams finishing in the middle of the pack.
Take UConn, for instance, last season. A good team with plenty of talent, they couldn’t put it all together in the regular season, finishing 9-9 in the league. But Jim Calhoun and Kemba Walker rallied the troops at Madison Square Garden, as a No. 9 seed, and rode that all the way to a national title.
It’s a pattern for the Big East, where good teams become great at The Garden. In 2010, the Mountaineers, as a No. 3, won the league, and then went on to the Final Four, as well. So, keep that in mind. The Big East champion will have a great shot at a national title.
Big Ten:
LAST THREE CHAMPIONS & SEEDS: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Purdue
THE SKINNY: There is less travel and less parity in the Big Ten through the winter months, and traditionally, the chalk rises to the surface here, as a result. So, bear that in mind next week, as you ponder the Purdues and the Iowas and the Minnesotas of the world. Good value, good odds, but probably no chance of winning.
That said, there are five teams that are ranked right now: Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana. But it’s hard, given the past history, to think anyone other than the Spartans or Buckeyes, who are both on the cusp of 25 wins, is going to win this tourney.
SEC:
LAST THREE CHAMPIONS & SEEDS: East No. 2 Kentucky, East No. 1 Kentucky, West No. 3 Mississippi State
THE SKINNY: The Bulldogs, in 2009, proved a middle-of-the-road team can go on a run here, as well. But, as a trend, you’re better off leaning on the elite. Kentucky, in the first two years of the John Calipari Era, displayed the sense of urgency here and flexed its muscle on the way to the Big Dance.
Hard to believe, with a No. 1 ranking, and a perfect league record through Wednesday, that things will change this year. These Wildcats, after all, are better than those two previous versions, and they have a tradition and a standard to uphold. Also bear in mind this: the fan base. Not unlike the Lakers or the Yankees or the Packers, Wildcats Nation travels everywhere and so the fans will be out in full force for the conference title. That leads to bigger expectations, and more incentive to do what everyone knows they’re capable of doing. Besides, there is only one other ranked team in the SEC this week -- Florida -- so the road becomes that much easier.
Pac-12:
LAST THREE CHAMPIONS & SEEDS: No. 3 Washington, No. 3 Washington, No. 6 USC
THE SKINNY: Certainly there is a bit of an unknown here, because the regular season featured Utah and Colorado for the first time. That’s more travel, and more gameplanning, and overall, a new wrinkle to the mix, though the Utes at 3-13 through Wednesday, have been relatively harmless.
But, what we know in the ever-changing league is this: No. 1 seeds struggle. In this incredibly mediocre conference where no one is ranked, you’re better off lying in the weeds, snaring a second-level seed, and walking into the tournament with no pressure. It’s worked for the Huskies the last two seasons, and the Trojans, in 2009, were even in the bottom half of the ladder.
But here’s the conundrum for bettors this year. Washington will be among the top two seeds one way or the other. Will they feed off past experiences and play loose? Or will they feel the pressure, tighten up and bow out early? It should give a ho-hum tourney a little juice one way or the other.
Big 12:
LAST THREE CHAMPIONS & SEEDS: No. 1 Kansas, No. 1 Kansas, No. 1 Missouri
THE SKINNY: OK, so no one is asking to shut down this tournament and not play it anymore because of lack for suspense. But in all the power conferences, the Big 12 has been the most consistent with its champions of late. If you’re No. 1 headed into the tourney, you win it.
This year? Well, there's some decent upstarts like an Iowa State, or a Kansas State, who have both topped 20 wins. But the chalk is the chalk, and with all due respect to Baylor, a Top 10 team and a program on the rise, that means Missouri and Kansas, who combined for 51 wins through Wednesday, are the ones to watch.
Now, there’s value with a team like the Bears, who can run with anyone and have the energy to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. But if you want to play history, and trends, and can live with the price, the Jayhawks are your team.
ACC:
LAST THREE CHAMPIONS & SEEDS: No. 2 Duke, No. 1 Duke, No. 3 Duke
THE SKINNY: Perhaps, if history is your bag here, you might want to throw out the seeds. Because regardless of the number that precedes them, the Blue Devils seem to be the play. This year, they will be among the top two seeds, and though there is a debate on whether they are truly better than North Carolina, pound for pound, there is something to be said for pedigree and knowing how to win when it matters, not unlike Kansas and Kentucky.
The thing that often gets lost in conference tourney betting -- and it plays a factor here, big time -- is regional, recruiting and rivalries.
Let's face it, Duke will survive without another ACC banner, should they stumble here. But to beat the Tar Heels on this stage, or any other team they compete against off the floor, means that much more over the long haul for the program. The current players may not think that way, certainly. They may not care. But you can bet that coach Mike Krzyzewski knows it, and you can expect him to coach with that in mind.