Cavs-Celtics Outlook
By Chris David
**No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 4 Boston Celtics**
Series Price: Cleveland -500 Boston +400
Series Format: Cleveland 2-2-1-1-1
Game 1 - Saturday (5/1)
Game 2 - Monday (5/3)
Game 3 - Friday (5/7)
Game 4 - Sunday (5/9)
Game 5 - Tuesday (5/11)
Game 6 - Thursday (5/13)
Game 7 - Sunday (5/16)
Skinny: Cleveland and Boston were expected to clash in the postseason last year but the Celtics were unseated in the Eastern Conference semifinals to Orlando in seven games. The Magic eventually beat the Cavaliers in the conference finals as well before losing to the Lakers in the NBA Finals.
This year, the Cavaliers and Celtics will square off and even though the circumstances are a little bit different since it's just the second round of the playoffs, the rivalry is still heated. These two teams met in the conference semifinals in 2008, which was the same year Boston won the NBA Finals over the L.A. Lakers. The series was a classic slugfest where defense was prominently featured. The home team won all of the contests in the best-of-seven series and was highlight by a great Game 7 battle. LeBron James (45 points) and Paul Pierce (41 points) went back and forth in the finale but the Celtics had too much in the end.
Cleveland will be looking for revenge and fortunately for LeBron, his supporting cast is much improved for this go 'round against Boston. You won't see names like Ben Wallace, Wally Szcerbiak, Joe Smith and Sasha Pavlovic on this year's roster, rather more talented players in Mo Williams (15.8 PPG), Antawn Jamison (15.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG) and an improved Anderson Varejao (8.6 PPG, 7.6 PPG).
Plus we didn't mention center Shaquille O'Neal (12 PPG), who wasn't effective in the Cavs' first round victory over the Bulls but he can still have his moments. It's also hard not to touch on solid role players off the bench like Delonte West, J.J. Hickson, Anthony Parker and even Jamario Moon. The bottom line is that head coach Mike Brown has the best player in LeBron plus his team is deep.
Boston is still a very talented team and it showed in the first round when it outclassed Miami in five games last week. However, their age has shown this year and the depth is questionable. Even though Pierce (19.6 PPG), Kevin Garnett (15.8 PPG) and Ray Allen (19.4 PPG) garner a lot of the attention in Boston, most would argue that the best player for the Celtics has been point guard Rajon Rondo, who destroyed whatever the Heat threw at him in the first round.
Unfortunately for Rondo, he won't be facing Carlos Arroyo or Mario Chalmers in the second round, rather a slew of quicker more talented backcourt players in West and Williams. Another factor for this series will be the bench play for Doc Rivers' team. Glen Davis played well against Miami as did Tony Allen, but the offseason acquisition of Rasheed Wallace hasn't worked out well. Boston needs big minutes in this series from him, plus Kendrick Perkins as well since LeBron loves to attack and the Cavs will go to Shaq as the series progresses. Don't be surprised to see often used Shelden Williams in this series if the previous pair gets caught in foul trouble.
During the regular season, the Celtics and Cavaliers split the four-game series with each team winning one game on the road. As expected, LeBron went nuts in every game (38, 36, 30, 42) but he came up short in the fourth installment from the free throw line (14-of-22). Pierce sat out the second battle for Boston, which turned out to be a 20-point setback (88-108).
Gambling Notes: The Celtics covered all four of their wins against the Heat in the first round, which included three winning tickets at TD Garden, which comes as a surprise considering they were an automatic fade (12-28-1 ATS) at home during the regular season. The 'over' went 3-2 but Game 2 (106-77) could've gone either way and was helped with a big second-half (101 points). Cleveland only produced a 2-3 ATS mark against Chicago in its opening best-of-seven battle, even though it did win three of the games by double digits. The 'over' went 3-2.
Cleveland has been listed as a healthy 7 ½-point home favorite for Game 1, which is comparable to the number in the mid-March meeting. The second installment will see the line go up or down depending on what transpires in the opener. Game 3 has always been defined as the pivotal matchup in any best-of-seven and this contest will be tough to gauge, since both clubs will be playing on three days of rest. Boston (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) and Cleveland (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) have both put forth decent marks in these scenarios.
Since the "Big Three" was put together, Boston has won nine of its last 10 battles against Cleveland at home. At the same time, the Cavaliers have captured nine of 10 at home versus the Celtics as well.
The total on the Game 1 is listed as 191 .5, which is similar to a few of the encounters this season, which happened to see all four encounters go 'over' the number. If you go back to the aforementioned conference semifinals matchup two years ago, the series was all about defense. The highest total in that series was 181 and the 'under' went 4-3 in the seven games. Both units have dropped off a bit on the defensive end and the firepower for each club has improved as well.
Outlook: Cleveland opened up as a healthy $5.00 favorite (Bet $500 to win $100) on the series, with Boston listed at plus-400 (Bet $100 to win $400) as the underdog. Laying 1/5 with the Cavs wouldn't be deemed as a smart wager in terms of risk versus reward, but it's hard to imagine them losing unless LeBron goes down with a series-ending injury. Some pundits, including this writer, expected the Celtics to struggle with the Heat in the first round. Boston took care of business and the public perception has definitely swayed in its favor, but Miami isn't Cleveland. If this best-of-seven series was a game of four-on-four, Doc Rivers' team might have a chance, even then a slim one. Look for the Cavs to use their depth, homecourt edge and consistent scoring to claim this series in six games, but don't be surprised to see it end much sooner.
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