Betting Notebook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Rebel Yell!
My beloved Runnin' Rebels of UNLV (22-6, 6-4 MWC) have hit a brick wall and are currently in the midst of a streak that has seen them cover only one game in their last seven. That lone win was nearly three weeks ago against Colorado State when they laid 14 points at home. Of course, why even mention that it was at home, because if we mention UNLV covering the spread, it has to be at the Thomas & Mack Center.
UNLV has now lost its last three road games and haven't covered a road game in the last seven tries. Without even looking at the spread, or who they're playing, you can just walk up to the betting window when they're on the road and say "I'll take whoever's playing UNLV" and you wouldn't have lost a ticket since Dec. 17 when they beat a ranked Illinois squad as a two-point underdog.
Granted, most of us in Las Vegas had high expectations of UNLV basketball this season after they gave us taste of how good they could be when they upset then No. 1 North Carolina (90-80). We finally felt like Rebel basketball mattered again in the college basketball world after two decades of play slightly above mediocrity. We saw confidence, solidarity and a toughness within the players that hadn't been witnessed since the days of Jerry Tarkanain.
Even when they lost on the road to tough home teams like Wichita State (70-89) and Wisconsin (51-62), it may have deflated Las Vegas' bubble of high hopes a little bit, but it was merely was shrugged off as a learning experience against very good teams that would make UNLV better down the road in conference play. It proved right as the Rebels went on tear over their next seven games, pummeling everyone in their way resembling how teams from the distant past did it.
The two-point loss (67-69) at San Diego State was disheartening, but they battled hard and overcame a bad shooting game with physical play. Although they didn't cover the spread at Boise State and Air Force, they fought back in overtime to get the wins. But in the back of almost every Rebel supporter's mind, there was less confidence when discussing how the supposed magical season would end up.
The anxiety was proven right two weeks ago with a road loss (66-68) at Wyoming and then a week later with a heartbreaking 102-97 overtime loss at TCU, a game the Rebels were up by 17 points in the second half. Solace was taken in the fact that at least they were taken to the brink, played well enough to win along the MWC being the fifth ranked RPI conference in the nation for a reason, every team can ball.
However, Saturday's 65-45 loss at New Mexico shined a light brighter on UNLV's weaknesses more so than any other juncture of the season. After taking a 27-26 lead to half-time, UNLV basically took itself out of the game, and dare I say it, QUIT. I never thought I'd say that about this team with all the hustle they've shown throughout the season. Shoot poorly and miss lots of lay-ups? Yes, I say it all the time, but never QUIT.
Up next for the Rebels are four very winnable games, with only one coming on the road (Colorado State), before the conference tournament begins at the Thomas & Mack.
While I could care less about all the crumpled losing UNLV bet tickets in my pocket, I am concerned about what lesson, if any, the Rebels take from such a crushing loss. If I'm sitting at home disheveled watching the game, how do the players wearing the uniforms feel having been directly responsible for such embarrassment.
Hopefully coach Dave Rice takes it upon himself to ensure the Rebels remember the pain and the exact feeling they had fighting through thousands of rowdy Lobos fans storming the court after their win to get back to the locker room. Remember it, embrace it and use it for good.
Best thing to do: Take a photo of the scoreboard that shows a 20-point loss and post it everywhere in their locker room and practice facility. Hold each player accountable for their role in the loss and then help them improve upon it. If the players know what they did wrong in their worst moment of the season, they'll be more apt not to put themselves individually in the same situation.
I must confess that I am a proud Rebel. I may be a little selfish in my desires to see UNLV advance through the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't feel so passionate about their latest loss if I didn't see something in this squad that made me believe they could do some damage in March. I've seen plenty of bad UNLV losses over the years, but this one stung.
I've always been pretty honest with myself regarding the Rebels realistic prospects and now I'm at the point of just hoping for a quick remedy to fix this extremely talented team before the dream is over.
Teams on the Bubble
Miami, Fl. (16-9): The Canes have made easy work of bad ACC teams and had their one shining moment of the season with a win at home against Duke, but they have lost every other game against ranked opponents. They'll have a chance to solidify their resume with a win at home against Florida State this Sunday.
Washington (19-8): They may now be off the bubble with a 12-3 conference record after beating Arizona Saturday, but it's still debatable whether the Pac 12 gets one or two teams. With the way they have turned it up lately, they should get an invite even if they don't win the conference tournament. I watch a lot of Pac 12 games and I must say the quality of the league has gotten a bad rap. If the Huskies make it, they might take some ranked teams down.
Xavier (17-9): They came away with an overtime win over Dayton last Saturday that helps their cause, but they may have to win one, or both, of their remaining road games at U-Mass and Saint Louis to have a shot at getting in.
Northwestern (16-10): While the mid-majors were playing bracket-busters, the Wildcats played their own version of it against another bubble team on Saturday, Minnesota, and won 64-53. Their best win of the year was beating Michigan State, which is now huge considering how well the Spartans are playing.
North Carolina State (18-9): The ACC doesn't carry the weight it once did and the Wolfpack is now 0-6 against ranked teams. They may have to beat North Carolina Tuesday to have a shot at an at-large bid.
Illinois (16-11): They've now lost five in a row, but have huge wins against Ohio State and Michigan State on the year. However, that might not be enough in light of their current form. They may have to beat either Ohio State or Wisconsin on the road to have any shot.
Central Florida (19-7): They may be able to seal their fate with a Feb. 28 win at Memphis. Their only win over a ranked team came in November against Connecticut, who was then No. 4 at the time, but it doesn't look so impressive now.
Minnesota (17-10): Minnesota needed the win against Northwestern Saturday and didn't get there. Despite quality wins against Illinois and at Indiana, their three-game losing streak looks to have them NIT bound unless they win out. It's a tough four game stretch for them: Michigan State, Indiana, at Wisconsin and Nebraska.
Oregon (19-8): They needed Thursday's game at Cal and will now be forced to have to win the Pac 12 tournament to make it.
Colorado State (16-9): They currently sit fourth in the very impressive MWC and come off a win against Wyoming who was a bubble team as well. Their March future rests with what they do in their next three games: Homes games against New Mexico and UNLV and on the road at San Diego State.