CBB "TRUE STEAM"
by vegas-runner
NC GREENSBORO opened -1....Now -2 (Bet UNC-Greensboro)
The opening number for this match-up went up yesterday evening, and did not receive any sharp money immediatley after opening...Nor did it receive any as Wednesday came to a close...So this morning, we were seeing UNCG -1 all across the board...But that didn't last long because we saw some Wiseguys step up and grab +1 on Tenn-Chatanooga...That surprised me at first because I had made my "Fair Line" UNCG -2...and my "True Line" -4...
But then I remembered one of the concepts that we've covered plenty of times in these Blogs...And that is, we know the Betting Syndicates always look for opportunities to get +POINTS with BOTH teams in the same game...Which means they end up with a "Dog Bet" on BOTH teams...And that is obviously a bet with plenty of value...So I sat back to see if I was correct, and if so...that meant the Outfits would try to drive the line up to -1 or higher on Tenn-Chat, so they can come right back and unload on UNCG at a Dog price...Especially if they don't want to take an official position, and instead are trying to earn via a "middle"...
Well, that almost happened...But as soon as this game went to PICK, it appears that at least a few of the Betting Syndicates saw that there was just too much value on the Home-Team...And rather than run the risk of being left out of the party, they imediately went to work laying all the UNCG at PK, that they could get their hands on...
They didn't stop there...and as the sportsbooks hurried to adjust, after seeing the "True" intentions of the Wiseguys for this match-up...the Outfits continued to lay UNCG -1 & -1.5...Which forced the adjustment all the way up to -2...
Now if you didn't see all of this take place...You may figure that this isn't really a significant move...Because it's only a 1 PT adjustment from the opening number...But nothing could be further from the truth...Because it appears that they like this position on UNCG so much, that they abandoned trying to get Both teams at a Dog Price so they don't miss out on getting down on UNCG at what I believe was an extremely weak number...
LINE PREDICTION : Bottom Line, after doing some work on this match-up...I am now convinced that this line was based on nothing more than "Public Perception"...Because the betting public is going to see that an 11-7 team is actually a dog, to a 3-15 club...that they've beaten 3 straight times...And because of this, I would not be surprised at all to see some public money come in on Tenn-Chat and help the books get some balance on this match-up...But because this is an "Added Board" game, and there are plenty of other match-ups to choose from...As well as a handful of Televised Games, I don't think that the public money on this match-up will be enough to bring this line back down to -1 or PICK...So unless there is another "Buy-Order" sent out, I believe that we should see this line stay where it is...with possibly a 1/2 pt adjustment either way...VR
Bottom Line...these Overall Records are extremely misleading...Because although UNCG is only 3-15, they only have "1" less Conference Win than their opponent, Tenn-Chat...
And more importantly, when we take a look at the "Strength of Schedule" (SOS) for BOTH teams...we find that UNCG has played the #17th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #9th TOUGHEST "NON-CONFERECE" SCHEDULE in CBB
On the flip side...Tenn-Chat may be 11-7...But they've played the #304th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #219th TOUGHEST NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE in CBB...
So those misleading Overall Records give us plenty of Value on this wager...And since my "True-Line" is -4, I believe that there is still enough value for us to step up and take a position on UNCG -1.5 or -2 as well...Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner...