CBB "TRUE STEAM" for FRIDAY
By VegasRunner
1.) HARVARD vs COLUMBIA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)
CRIS was the first off-shore book to offer a Total on this Ivy League Match-Up, and when they put it up at 132 a little after 5pm est on Thursday...I was a bit surprised...The reason for this is because although I made my "Fair Line" 134.5....I had made my "True Line" 137...And to be perfectly honest, even then I felt I could have went 1/2 Pt higher...
Now what surprised me was that we all know these Ivy League games get very little "volume" from the betting public...And the majority of action usually comes from the Wiseguys on these type of games...So usually, the oddsmakers will not weigh in "public perception" as heavily, and instead...put out a line that best refelects their actual ratings...
This is what surprised me, because I felt that anything less than 134...would be based more on the "perception" of these 2 teams, and not the actual strength...Because even though 2 of the L/3 in this series*didn't crack 120 pts...this year's version of both squads*is a bit different...More importantly, with Columbia's L/2 games having gone Under the Total...while 4 straight for Harvard have done the same...it seems to support the "perception" angle...
I believe that when you really look into it, this match-up has the potential to break 140...if the tempo is dictated by Harvard...which I expect it will...
And it appears that my initial read was agreed on by the Betting Syndicates, who bet the Over 132 at Cris...
And forced them to adjust this Total up to 133 in less than 2 minutes...And that is where the rest of the off-shore books, went ahead and opened the Total for this game...And where it closed last night...
Then early this morning, after having some more time to work on the match-up...it appears that the Wiseguys agreed that there was still some value there, and once again got down on Over 133...This prompted a move to 133.5, where once again...we saw the Outfits hit the Over one more time...And we've since seen the books go to 134, which is where the Vegas sports books that offer totals on these type of match-ups...went ahead and offered it...
According to my "True Line"...by betting Over 134, you are still getting the best of it...Which is pretty much all you can ever ask for when you place a wager and take a position...VR
LINE PREDICTION : At first, I felt that there was a good chance we would begin*to see*this Total drop some...Because it was obvious the Betting Syndicates got their desired amount down already...at Over 132, 133, & 133.5...So as they backed off, and the betting public began giving the books some action on the Under...I expected that they would go ahead and lower it, and attempt to give the bettors the worst of it...
And even shut down any attempts at a "middle" or "buy-back" that would be profitable...But since I've already seen Pinny go to 134.5...as well as a handful of locals who always over-adjust for "steam", who have gone as high as 135...I wouldn't be surprised if this line stays put...
With that said, don't let any line-move against us scare you...Because there are plenty of manuevers made by both, the sports books and the Wiseguys...And in this case, I can assure you that the "True Position" of those Betting Syndicates...is on the OVER...