CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Tue 1-12-10
by vegas-runner
Allright fellas...we nailed another CBB "True Steam" Bet last night, a SU DOG WINNER...To take us to "4-1" on CBB "Early Moves"...
We are now "39-20" (66% ATS) OVERALL on "True Steam" Bets...since we launched this Blog...
Tonight, I've been able to isolate another "Added Board" wager...that according to my own Ratings/Numbers, still has plenty of value...Even after the books have adjusted for all of the "steam" they had to take on this game...
Remember, the books are adjusting for all the public bettors that are now making their way over to basketball, from football...So that means if we can strengthen our own numbers during this transition...we should be able to uncover some spots, that offer up even more value than ever before...
That's what the Betting Syndicates bank on to beat the books in all sports, each and every season...And there is very little that the books can do to prevent this, or to protect themselves...
More importantly, for tonight's "True Steam"...I believe it's one of those instances where the sportsbooks can only adjust so far...Because it's an "Added Board" game...And more importantly, it's a TOTAL...Which means that it will get very little volume from the betting public...
And because of that, there is only so much of an adjustment that the books can make for "steam" coming in...Because they are aware that if they do go ahead and adjust this Total to where they would like...or even, to where I feel it should be...then it will really open the door for them to get killed on this game...Because the "middle" opportunity would then become too profitable for the Outfits to pass up...
And what we saw early on this season...and pretty much, every season...is that the Wiseguys do so much damage with Totals, because the oddsmakers numbers are so WEAK, compared to those that the Outfits are using...So when the Betting Syndicates came in on those Totals, early in the season...the books were forced to continue adjusting...Especially, since there was very little public money to help them get any kind of balance...Those adjustments opened up huge "middle" opportunities, and I can tell you for certainty, that the Wiseguys really cashed in on them...
This is why I love these kind of "True Steam" Bets...Because I can almost be 100% sure, that the books would like to adjust the Total even more...But for the reasons that I just touched on...THEY CAN'T...And therefore, we find ourselves with what I like to call, a "true" value bet...VR
CBB "TRUE STEAM" for TUE 1-12-10 :
1.) TENN ST/IOWA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)
I was extemely surprised that CRIS opened this Total up at 132 last night...Because I had made my own line for this game 136.5, and that was my "Fair Line"...While my "True Line" was actually 138...But when I looked at the "match-up stats" that every bettor checks daily, and are available everywhere...it became obvious why they went ahead and brought it out so low...And the reason for this is the amount of points that Iowa has scored in 3 of the L/4 games...and Tenn St has in 2 of their L/3...As well as the "perceived tempo" for BOTH...So that made me assume that this Total was based more on "Public Perception"...than anything else...
I was also surprised that the Wiseguys left the Total alone for this game at first...so that it was still 132 at the end of the night...But as I've covered in so many past blogs, we know that there are very few books that offer Totals on CBB the night before the games...Especially on "Added Board" match-ups...And more importantly, those books that are willing to offer a betting line the night before...are extremely limiting the amount of money they are willing to book...
So it makes perfect sense, for these Outfits to wait until more "outs" are available...And the limits are higher, before they go ahead and tip their hand on what position they are going to take...
That's exactly what happened here, because we saw that this morning...over an "8 MINUTE" period, enough "steam" came in on the OVER 132, 132.5, & 133...to force the adjustment up to 134...Where this total is now almost all across the board...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Truth is, according to my own Ratings/Numbers...this Total still isn't high enough...And I wouldn't be surprised if we see another "Buy-Order" go out on the OVER...If this Over does catch some more "steam", it will then put the books in a tough spot...because adjusting again will definitely open up a huge "middle" opportunity...In which case, we will almost certainly see this Total come back down some...as we approach tip-off...But what choice will they have...
Where it sits right now, at 134...I believe we won't see anyone try and attempt a "middle", which is why I advise those who agree with me...and the Betting Syndicates, to go OVER now...Because I do believe we are still getting plenty of value, and I doubt that it will come back down, closer to the opening number...
But those who disagree, and like the UNDER...I believe that by waiting, you may find yourselves with an even higher Total to go Under...But I would go ahead and make that bet as soon as I see it move upwards some more...Because the Outfits will also be waiting for that to happen, and if they do attempt that "middle"...then it should come back down a bit...
Bottom line...I know that these 2 clubs don't employ the quickest tempo...But I don't think that either has the type of size advantage to make this a "post-up" type of game...And I also think that BOTH of these teams are weak enough defensively, that the other will be able to score some points...I look for this game to possibly eclipse 140.