Celtics-Heat Outlook
By Chris David
**No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. 5 Miami Heat**
Series Price: Boston -220 Miami +170
Series Format: Boston 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: Since Boston created the "Big Three" of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, the franchise has made the playoffs in all three years of existence. However, age has definitely played a factor this season, evidenced by the Celtics 50-32 record, the worst mark in the three seasons with this group. Even though injuries have plagued the team all season long, head coach Doc Rivers is confident that his troops can win another NBA championship, which they did in 2008 over the L.A. Lakers.
"This is the healthiest we've been," Rivers said. "I think this is the best Kevin's been since early in the season. I think Paul is feeling fantastic right now." Can the savvy veterans string together another memorable run or will their inconsistencies show up against a red-hot Miami club? The Heat finished off the regular season with an impressive 18-4 run, while the Celtics struggled to a 3-7 mark down the stretch.
Current form is a big factor in handicapping, but it's hard to ignore the fact that this head-to-head series has been all about Gang Green. Boston is 11-1 in its last 12 meetings against Miami, and that includes a perfect 3-0 ledger this year. On paper, the Heat has less overall talent than the Celtics but they will have the best player on the floor at all times in Dwayne Wade. The former Marquette standout had his way against Boston this season, scoring 27, 44 and 30. Even though Miami came up short in all three affairs, the losses were by seven, six and five points.
Two of the three games were played at American Airlines Arena in South Beach and Miami should've won at least one of the two. In Boston's 112-106 overtime win, it was fortunate to watch Rajon Rondo lay in a game-tying alley oop layup in regulation. Sure enough, the Celtics proceeded to outscore the Heat 11-5 in the extra session for the road victory.
The final encounter of the season came at TD Garden and Boston held on for a 107-102 decision without Pierce, who sat out with a foot injury. The Celtics controlled the glass (53-38) and produced 29 assists on 37 field goals. Boston shot incredibly well in all three games against the Heat, connecting on 52, 53.7 and 48.7 percent from the field in the wins.
Miami's main issue is finding somebody else to step up besides Wade. Second-year player Michael Beasley (14.8 PPG) has shown some flashes as has veteran Jermaine O'Neal (13.6 PPG), but the lack of depth in the backcourt will hurt against Rondo (13.7 PPG, 9.8 APG) and Allen (16.3 PPG). Another factor that leans to Boston is experience and while they haven't made a big impression in Beantown this season, the acquisitions of Rasheed Wallace and Michael Finley can only help.
Gambling Notes: The first three games of the series will be on two days rest, while the final four will only have one day in between each contest. Fatigue could be a factor if this best-of-seven series goes deep, with the last four being played over a seven-day span.
Did you know Boston is the only playoff team that has produced more victories on the road (26) than at home (24) this season? For whatever reason, the Celtics haven't been able to get up for contests at home and they've burned gamblers with a horrendous 12-29 ATS record from TD Garden.
The number on Game 1 listed the Celtics as 4 ½-point favorites, which tells you a lot. And Boston has only gone 4-8 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less at home this season. Miami has posted a solid 16-14 ATS mark as a road underdog, and its gone 3-3 ATS as a home underdog. We only mention the Heat's home record as a 'dog because they could be short pups in Game 3 or 4 if they head back to South Beach in a 0-2 hole.
We won't rush to that conclusion yet, considering Miami has been a tough out on the road (23-18 SU, 24-17 ATS) this season. Unfortunately, the Heat's home record (24-17 SU, 18-22 ATS) isn't that impressive for a playoff squad.
Two of three regular season games went 'over' the number with totals ranging from 182 to 188. Boston saw the 'over' go 41-40 on the year. Conversely, Miami watched the 'under' go 45-36. The total for Game 1 was listed at 185 and regardless of the scores in the first couple games, it would be hard to imagine a drop or increase in the totals by more than five points throughout the rest of the series.
Outlook: Most amateur fans will expect Boston to advance in this spot and set up a battle with Cleveland (if it beats Chicago) in the second round. However, the Celtics are primed for an upset here and we've seen Wade carry teams on his back before. Of the four series in the Eastern Conference, this is the closest matchup, and the oddsmakers agree. Wade should go off in this series, but Rondo might put up similar numbers and you wash those two out, the edge still goes to Boston's "Big Three." It will be entertaining, but expect Boston to pull it out in seven games at home.
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