Celtics-Lakers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 1 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 4 Boston Celtics
Series Price: L.A. Lakers -200, Boston +175
Skinny: The matchup that many basketball fans were anticipating has come about with the Lakers and Celtics meeting for the 12th time in the NBA Finals. Los Angeles will be looking to avenge a loss in the Finals back in 2008 to Boston in six games, topped off by a 39-point beatdown by the Celtics in the series clincher. The home-court advantage switches up this time around with the Lakers getting the first two games at Staples Center.
The Lakers and Celtics went down different roads to get to this point, but both held 2-0 leads in the conference finals before winning in six games. Los Angeles ousted Oklahoma City, 4-2 in the opening round, as the Lakers took three games at home. Phil Jackson's club made quick work of the Jazz in the second round by disposing of Utah for a third straight postseason. It was only the second sweep the Lakers have pulled off in the playoffs since 2003 (Denver in 2008). Los Angeles wrapped up its third straight conference title by knocking out Phoenix in six games, including the series clincher on the road in Game 6.
Boston entered the postseason as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and many people wondered if the window has shut on the veteran Celtics. Turns out, the C's still have some gas left in the tank. Doc Rivers' squad downed Miami in five games of the opening round, followed by their elimination of the top-seeded Cavs in six games. Cleveland led Boston, 2-1 after a Game 3 blowout in Beantown, but that didn't faze the Celtics. Boston rebounded with three straight victories, led by several dominating performances from point guard Rajon Rondo. The Celtics avenged last season's second round loss to the Magic by ousting Orlando in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The two teams split their two regular season meetings with the road squad winning each time. The Lakers needed a late Kobe Bryant jumper to down the Celtics in Boston, 90-89 on January 31 as one-point favorites. Bryant and Andrew Bynum each scored 19 points, while Rondo led all scorers with 21 points. The Celtics avenged that setback with an 87-86 squeaker at Staples Center on February 18, cashing as 2 ½-point underdogs. Bryant sat out that game with an ankle injury, as the C's tallied just 11 points in the final quarter to hold off the Lakers.
Gambling Notes: Over the last decade, the team that hosted the first two games of the Finals has won the title eight times. The two clubs in this stretch that went on the road to start the series and took home the title were the 2004 Pistons and the 2006 Heat. The Lakers have been a good 'fade' in the first two games of the NBA Finals in the Jackson era. Los Angeles is 3-8-1 ATS the first two games of the Finals its last five appearances dating back to 2000, including a 2-4 ATS mark in Finals openers. In Jackson's ten titles as coach of the Bulls and Lakers, his teams have never pulled off a sweep in the Finals, but have also never been pushed to a Game 7.
Since the inception of 2-3-2 format in 1985, the home team has won the first two games 13 times, including each of the last five seasons. The task for Boston to steal the first two games on the road will be difficult as that feat has been accomplished only twice, with Chicago winning the opening two in Phoenix back in 1993, and Houston grabbing the first two in Orlando in 1995. Even if the Lakers split the first two games at home, they're still in good shape from a historic standpoint. Ten times since the 2-3-2 format began, the home team has split the first two games, but in seven instances the home team still ended up winning the series. Winning the middle three games at home is never easy, as the '04 Pistons and '06 Heat are the only ones to accomplish that feat, something the Celtics may be faced with assuming they don't win the first two at Staples.
The Celtics gave backers a great ride in 2008 by covering all six games of the Finals, including four as an underdog. The totals were split down the middle, with the three 'overs' hitting when the winning team scored at least 100 points. Boston is 12-5 ATS this postseason, while the Lakers are just 9-7 ATS, including a 5-4 ATS mark as a favorite.
Nine of the last 12 Finals series openers have finished 'under' the total, including last year's 'under' in Los Angeles' 100-75 victory over Orlando (total was set at 205.5).
Series Outlook: Both these teams are not scared of this spotlight, but the Celtics are the ones playing with house money at this point. Very few people expected Boston to get past Cleveland in the second round, much less Orlando in the conference finals. The Lakers have been eyeing revenge for two seasons, even though Bryant finally won his first title without Shaquille O'Neal last season. Boston will push Los Angeles in this series, but the Lakers will capture back-to-back titles in six games.
Future Bets: The Lakers are favored to win this series, but there are other ways to get involved in exact series bets. If you believe Los Angeles will pull off a sweep, the odds are 10/1 on the Lakers finishing off the series in four games. On the flip side, if you think the Celtics wrap this series up in four, the odds are a generous 25/1. The shortest odds for any combination are 3/1 with the Lakers winning in six games. Bryant is a $2.50 favorite to win the series MVP, while Rondo is listed at even-money for the award. All odds are courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
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