Celtics vs Lakers Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone
In the history of the NBA, two names stand above the rest, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. These two franchises have combined to win 32 NBA titles (the Lakers won five in Minneapolis). Boston has beaten the Lakers nine of 11 meetings in the NBA Finals which substantiates the point for many people of substance over style.
The Lakers like to make the argument that in spite of having a couple less titles than the Celtics, theirs is the better franchise having a bit of Jack Nicklaus in them (18 majors titles, 17 seconds), finishing runner-up 16 times.
What makes this appointment television is history. For many of the players let alone those tuned in to watch, this matchup is about Larry Bird, Bill Russell, Magic Johnson and Jerry West. What made this important is they met one another over a short period of time. Boston defeated the Lakers seven times from 1959 to 1969 and they met three times in four years from 1984 to 1987.
That is what makes this renewal even better than two Junes ago. The last time basketball fans had a 21-year break between heated encounters; this time most of the combatants are the same that met two years prior. What is different this time compared to 2008 when the Celtics hung their first NBA championship banner since 1986?
Trust and Age
Though Ray Allen was having brutal postseason two years ago, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce in particular were at the top of their respective games. Each was able to dominate for lengthy periods of any contest and did in those six games.
Today, neither KG nor Pierce has that same ability; both can make a series of outstanding plays to help Boston, just in a shorter time span. The Celtics are helped by Allen being a much stronger contributor, but the driving force of this Doc Rivers club is Rajon Rondo. The former Kentucky product has exploded onto the scene in the playoffs and been the catalyst behind the Celtics success. The Cs now feed off what Rondo delivers.
Two years ago, Kobe did not trust his teammates. He demanded total effort in the biggest games and they did not deliver to his liking. Last years title drive was all about finishing the deal and becoming champions again and thou Bryant has his doubts from time to time about the 2010 edition of the Lake Show, he knows what to expect from Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol and to a lesser degree Lamar Odom and Ron Artest.
Its all about the matchups
How does Boston limit Kobes effectiveness? Doc Rivers coachs by feel more than Xs and Os during games. Rivers will go after Bryant with Baskin-Robbins approach, using a variety of methods. Guard Kobe tight to force him to drive into lane where the Celtics big men can create issues. Let him shoot from the outside to prevent him from getting fouled too often and adding up points. They will double Kobe on the wings or single him up in the middle of the floor and go with what works best.
Derek Fisher took it as personal mission to stay with Steve Nash in West finals, but he has nowhere near enough foot speed to stay with Rondo. That means Bryant will see Rondo aplenty and if Boston wants to slow the pace, L.A. will be cool with that process, since Bryant can use his size and wing span to stay in front of Rondo. Expect coach Rivers to dictate to Rondo to run at every opportunity to maximize his effectiveness.
Pierce and Artest is a potential swing matchup in the series. Pierces jab step jumper is more deadly when he sets up defender by driving to the bucket. If he can make Artest indecisive about his intentions, he could frustrate Ron-Ron into drawing silly fouls and taking him mentally out of the game.
Artest has to knock down enough shots to keep Pierce honest on defense and prevent him from clogging driving lanes. Artests job on the other end of the floor is to limit Pierces scoring ability and work him so that his legs dont give him the leverage he needs late in the game to make jumpers.
In the frontcourt, Boston will try and manhandle the Lakers bigs with their imposing strength using Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to roughhouse. Los Angeles should be accustomed to these tactics, expect Phil Jackson to try and manufacture matchups playing to the strengths of Gasol, Odom and Andrew Bynum in the triangle offense.
Coaching counts
In 2008, the Rivers vs. Jackson coaching matchup was thought to be akin to choosing between Snookie of Jersey Shore and Megan Fox. Rivers it turns out is the right coach for Boston, continually pushing his club to do better thru effort and precision and working game plans with mastermind assistant Tom Thibodeau.
Jackson was almost passive when his club lost to the Celtics in the finals two seasons ago, but has been much more involved the last two years, not sitting idly by wanting players to learn from adversity. Hes been more aggressive in substitution patterns and back to trying different bench players in various situations to find the spark when needed.
ATS nuts and bolts
Both teams were unreliable home teams wagers with the Lakers 42-7 and 21-27-2 ATS record and the Celtics 31-19 and 19-30-1 ATS. Given their ability and skill, each was a factor as visitors with Boston 31-18 (26-22-1 ATS) and L.A. 27-22 (22-26-1 ATS).
In the last three years the Celtics Big Three is 7-5 and 9-2 ATS against Los Angeles. The road team has won five games outright of the previous 13 meetings, however just one was in the finals in 2008.
You will read the home court is not a significant factor because of how the visitors have played lately, but if you are making series wager, the teams with home court advantage has won eight of last ten.
What happens?
Only once in the previous 25 years has seed other than No. 1-3 won the NBA championship and Boston was a four seed coming into the postseason. Eddie House and Leon Powe were significant players for the Celtics in the last finals meeting, both play elsewhere today.
Gasol and Bryant together are better players than previous finals confrontation and the Lakers are 44-0 in any series with Jackson as coach if they win Game 1.
This will be rugged, physical series, with the trophy staying in L.A.
Dougs Pick- L.A. Lakers (-180) in seven over Boston (+150)