Championship Week
By Judd Hall
Nothing compares to the NCAA Tournament for something that brings the water cooler casuals engage in conversation with the hard core degenerates. Yet many of them will shy away from taking a chance on wagering the conference tourneys that make championship week one of the best times to watch college basketball.
If ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is correct (and he usually is), then we’re looking at almost half of the teams in the field of 65 coming from the BCS conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big XII, SEC and Pac-10). This season has seen some inroads from the mid-majors, most notably the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, which will be likely sending no fewer than four teams apiece.
What’s great for gamblers is that the tournaments for all of these conferences give you a chance to get almost instant gratification on future bets. Consider that you’ll have to wait on a national title wager for at least a month, depending on when you made the bet. On conference tourneys, you’re only tying up your cash for a week at the most. And there are plenty of league tournaments to wring your hands over; more tourneys, more chances to win.
The one thing that every bettor wants to know is who is the sure thing to play in these tournaments. If you’re using the Associated Press poll as a guide to make a “chalky” play, then you’ll narrow your plays considerably. We had just five changes among four teams for the No. 1 spot in the Top 25. Compare that to the 2008-09 campaign, where the top spot changed hands eight times.
While parity hasn’t struck the pollsters, it has hit our best and brightest college basketball handicappers as there is no unanimous choice to win a particular tourney.
The closest thing to a lock we have from our group to win their tournaments are the Blue Devils in the ACC, the Buckeyes in the Big Ten and the Jayhawks in the Big XII.
“The Buckeyes have been good enough to win the NIT Tournament two years ago and fall to a solid Sienna squad last year in the Big Dance. They have one of the better defenses in college basketball. Plus, Evan Turner has been one of the nation’s best players after his back injury. The only way Ohio State loses is if its opponent hits lights out from the field, while Thad Matta’s crew clanks a lot of shots off of the rim,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper James Patrick.
When it comes to the ACC, this has been a decidedly down year. Defending national champion North Carolina needs to win the league’s postseason tourney in order to get into the Big Dance. Duke and Maryland have taken advantage of the Tar Heels and the rest of the league’s shortcomings to take the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds.
Despite the close play between the Top 2 teams in the ACC, the Blue Devils are the pick to win it from four of our six experts. The Terrapins got one nod from Patrick, but Bruce Marshall is coming way out of left field with his pick to cut down the nets in Greensboro, North Carolina.
“The ACC is as wide-open as any conference tourney this season; Florida State plays better defense than any team in the league, which will not desert the Seminoles in a bang-bang-bang event like a conference tourney and will come in handy in Greensboro. Although really, any of 8 or 9 teams might have a shot. Duke has some flaws and proved it is not unbeatable last night by losing to Maryland on March 3.”
There is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the ‘Noles in this spot. They’ve played well as of late, winning five of their last six contests of the regular season. Also, Florida State has had success against the usual suspects in the league; winning against the Heels, a close loss to the Terps and a respectable defeat to the Blue Devils.
When it comes to the Big XII, the Jayhawks are king with four of our six handicappers picking them. How can you go against a Kansas team that has suffered just two losses all season long? You can if you’re taking the only team that dropped KU in conference play.
Tom Freese explains, “Oklahoma State may not look it in the standings, but they have a great shot at running through the Big XII Tournament. The Cowboys have wins over Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas this season. Plus, they’ve played much better defense down the stretch. You’ll get great odds on the ‘Pokes.”
While the Cowboys have picked up those signature wins for the selection committee, the stats are a little off. Particularly the fact that they are 100th in the nation in shooting defense by letting teams make 41.7 percent of their field goals. In Oklahoma State’s last five games, they’ve have a .436 defensive field goal percentage. And they did fall flat against Texas A&M after upsetting Kansas. Hard to play on a team that is still doing its Jekyll and Hyde impression.
Jason Johnson is amongst the majority that feels Bill Self’s Jayhawks are the team to beat. “Kansas is going to capture the Big XII Tournament crown because they have solid guard play from senior Sherron Collins and freshman Xavier Henry which opens up the paint, limited turnovers and rebounding along with a deep bench will give them a conference championship.”
What’s more important to keep in mind about the Jayhawks will be favored heavily in almost all of their conference tourney tests. That certainly will lend credence to taking KU on the future play to offset the game-by-game wagering.
We could be seeing a return to normalcy in the Southeastern Conference this year. Kentucky has exploded in John Calipari’s first season in Lexington. John Wall has proven himself to be the best player on the Wildcats and easily the best choice for any NBA squad in this year’s draft. As strong as a play as the Wildcats might seem, only three of our six experts took them to win in Nashville. Two of them backed the Commodores, while Doc’s Sports is backing Mississippi State to win its second straight SEC Tournament title.
“Mississippi State is clearly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and this team has much more talent then what their record would indicate,” says Doc’s Sports. “The Bulldogs shot it well from long range and have a beast in the middle with Jarvis Varnado, the leading shot blocker in the SEC. Mississippi State won the SEC Tournament last year and it would not surprise me if they make a long run in this year's tournament as well. They will be the No. 1 team in the SEC West.”
Syracuse and Washington are the consensus picks to claim the championships in the Big East and Pac-10 respectively. But there are some dissenters that like Arizona State or Cal to win on the West Coast, while Villanova is a darling to some ‘cappers at Madison Square Garden.
For those of you out there wondering about the new kids on the block in the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West, there was a pretty even split amongst our crew. Temple, Xavier and Dayton are all getting two votes apiece when it comes to winning the A-10. Dayton is the one that needs to cut down the nets the most as they’re on the outside looking in for the Big Dance.
When it comes to the Mountain West, Nevada-Las Vegas and Brigham Young are tied at 3-3. What was surprising about that is the fact that New Mexico didn’t get a look from any of our handicappers. So why did the Lobos, who are ranked in the Top 10 nationally, get the snub from our brain trust? Bruce Marshall offers the reasoning behind fading Steve Alford’s program.
“The Lobos already have their ticket punched to the Big Dance, and to win this conference tourney would likely mean another win over UNLV on its home court, which would be difficult. The Rebs have won this event two of the past three years and will likely be a far-more desperate team next weekend, needing to win the tourney to assure themselves of an NCAA bid.”
“Our early power ratings number on that matchup (which if it happens would occur in the finals) would be UNLV -3 1/2 or -4. As long as Rebs get past Utah (which beat them twice) in the first round, they would likely get a BYU team in the semis that UNLV has beaten seven straight times at the Thomas & Mack. Meanwhile, Lobos likely to run into a dangerous San Diego State in the semis, a team that beat UNM at Albuquerque this season and, like UNLV, will be desperate next week, with a win in the tourney the only way to prevent it from being one of the last teams on the bubble, and we saw what that did to the Aztecs last season.”
Marshall concludes, “Fundamentals are not bad at all for SDS vs. UNM, and Lobos would only be slight favorites (2 ½ or 3, by our ratings). I do not think New Mexico, with an NCAA bid assured, can beat desperate SDS and UNLV teams on back-to-back nights. Although I am assuming that UNLV will beat BYU (which like UNM has its Big Dance bid locked up) in the semis, which might be faulty analysis on my part.”
VegasInsider.com