February's Best and Worst College Basketball Bets
By Covers.com
February is a make-or-break month for college basketball teams. Some coaches are trying to get their squads to peak just in time for the postseason while others are scrambling for a quick fix in the final weeks of the schedule.
We look back over the past five seasons (2007-08 to 2011-12) to find out which college hoops programs rise to the occasion and which ones crumble under the pressure in February.
Records from February games only from 2007-08 to 2011-12.
Best ATS
Indiana State Sycamores (28-11-1 ATS, 23-17 SU)
Just like their most famous alum, Larry Bird, the Sycamores come up big for bettors in the crunch. Indiana State has gone 6-2 ATS in February in each of the past four seasons and is off to a 1-1 SU and ATS start this month, heading into Saturday’s date with Southern Illinois.
Auburn Tigers (26-10-1 ATS, 14-23 SU)
Auburn isn’t a perennial power in the SEC but it has been the conference's most consistent winning bet during the month of February. Since 2008, the Tigers have covered in 70 percent of their February games despite posting a losing record. They went 6-2 ATS last year and are 2-0 ATS to start this month.
Princeton Tigers (26-19 ATS, 27-18 SU)
Got nothing better to do on a cold Friday night in February? Try betting on the Tigers. Princeton, a permanent contender in the Ivy League, has turned up the intensity on the second month of the year. The Tigers went 7-2 ATS in February 2010 and posted a 6-2 ATS mark last February. This year, Princeton is 1-1 ATS going into Friday’s game with Brown.
Notables: Bradley (25-15 ATS), BYU (25-10 ATS), Old Dominion (25-15 ATS), St. Louis (25-12-1 ATS), Texas A&M (25-12 ATS).
Worst ATS
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-26-2 ATS, 7-30 SU)
Things fall apart for the Jackets in February. Georgia Tech used to be in the mix in the ACC but has fallen on hard times in recent seasons. The Yellow Jackets went 2-6 SU and ATS in February last season and don’t appear to be climbing out of the ACC basement anytime soon, at 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in conference play this year.
Air Force Falcons (11-23-1 ATS, 7-28 SU)
Life is tough in the Mountain West Conference. The so-called “mid major” could send as many as five teams to the Big Dance this year and has been on the upswing for past few seasons. So it’s understandable why the Falcons would suck so much in February. The Fly Boys have been getting better, going 6-7-1 ATS in the past two Februarys and owning a 1-1 ATS mark this month.
Providence Friars (11-24-1 ATS, 8-28 SU)
Similar to Air Force’s woes, the Friars face wave after wave of NCAA-bound talent in conference play, eventually hitting a breaking point in February. Providence has long been the Big East whipping boy but actually came through for bettors last year with a 5-3 ATS mark in February. The Friars are getting the job done once again this month, starting with a 2-0 SU and ATS mark.
Notables: Wright State (11-25-5 ATS), East Carolina (12-25-1 ATS), South Carolina (12-25-1 ATS), Tulane (12-23-2 ATS), Villanova (12-27-1 ATS).
February's Best Over/Under College Basketball Bets
By Covers.com
February is the truest time of the season for college basketball teams. Those non-conference wins don’t mean much in the heat of league play. Contenders are discovered and pretenders are unveiled as the schedule rolls toward the postseason.
We looked at the best and worst ATS play in February earlier this week, so let’s break down which teams have the best over and under records in the month of February over the past five seasons (2007-08 to 2011-12).
Records from just February games over the last five seasons.
Best over
Indiana State Sycamores (30-10 over/under, 23-17 SU)
Indiana State is all about February. The Sycamores are the best ATS teams in February over the last five seasons and hold claim to the best over bet as well. They split totals in their eight February games last year (4-4 over/under) but went 26-6 over/under the four previous campaigns. Indiana State is 1-2 over/under this month.
Hofstra Pride (29-10-1 over/under, 27-13 SU)
Hofstra, the top under bet in college basketball right now (1-12 over/under), has been on the other side of the fence in Februarys past. The Pride has gone 19-4-1 over/under in the second month of the year over the past three seasons but is off to a 1-2 over/under count this month.
Valparaiso Crusaders (28-14 over/under, 22-20 SU)
After staying under the total for most of the season, Valpo is beginning to trend toward the over just in time for February. The Crusaders are 7-1 over/under in their last eight games heading into Saturday. Valparaiso went 4-4 over/under last February but was 7-2 over/under in 2011 and 7-1 over/under in 2010.
Notables: Towson (27-12-1 over/under), Bowling Green (26-14 over/under), Southern Illinois (26-13 over/under), Wichita State (26-14 over/under)
Best under
Virginia Cavaliers (7-30 over/under, 11-26 SU)
The Cavs have been under gold in February, posting at least six under paydays in the past four Februarys. Head coach Tony Bennett went 4-18 over/under in his first three seasons at Virginia and has the Cavaliers ranked second in the nation in defense (51.5 points against per game). However, totals have dropped so low, Virginia has begun to show value with the over – going 4-1 over/under in its last five heading into Sunday.
Princeton Tigers (18-27 over/under, 27-18 SU)
Not a surprise here. The originators of the “Princeton offense” – a pass-heavy, motion offense that eats up the shot clock – naturally play under the total. The Tigers defied that logic last season, with a 6-2 over/under mark in February, but went 2-7 over/under in each of the three previous February schedules. This year, the Tigers are 3-3 over/under on the season and 2-1 over/under this month heading into the weekend.
South Florida Bulls (9-27 over/under, 12-24 SU)
The Big East, known for its slowed-down offenses and grueling defensive pressure, will take its toll on some of the weaker programs – like USF. The Bulls rarely see the light from the bottom of the conference and have been the most consistent under play when the going gets tough in the Big East. South Florida is 3-12 over/under the previous two Februarys and 1-1 over/under this month, heading into Saturday.
Notables: Pennsylvania (18-26-1 over/under), UConn (16-25 over/under), St. John’s (16-25-1 over/under), Columbia (15-25-1 over/under), Georgetown (12-25 over/under).
Situations, Sandwiches, & Spots for 2/11 – 2/15
ToddFuhrman
Toddstake.com
Situations and scheduling yield the best betting opportunities. Talk to any sharp college hoops bettor and he/she will have games penciled into their betting calendar weeks in advance. Schedule analysis requires the foresight to look ahead and if everything breaks the right way, you’ll gain the competitive edge before numbers hit the betting boards. Here are some choice spots worth noting for the upcoming week in college basketball
Monday
Kansas vs Kansas State
The Jayhawks are in free fall, losers of their last 3 conference games. Expect a max effort against in state rival Kansas St but be prepared to pay a price as books realize the sharps were itching to bet the Hawks here and inflated the opening number to -7.5. Deeper analysis actually reveals this to be a bit of value considering KU was -4 in Manhattan and even with the adjustment for current form, the Hawks should be closer to 9 or even 9.5 pt favorites here.
Wednesday
Boston College vs Wake Forest
Wake comes in fresh off a dismantling of FSU with a revenge date against Georgia Tech on deck. BC finally gets another ACC opponent they can handle in their building brimming with confidence from the near miss against Duke. The lone concern is how a young team handles disappointment from the upset that could have been…in my opinion, they let it build confidence and attack the Deacons with confidence.
Depaul @ Notre Dame
Nobody fears seeing the Demons on their schedule but coming on the heels of a 5 OT thriller and back to back games against Syracuse/Louisville, the Irish should fear a letdown. Depaul and Notre Dame went to OT in their first meeting only a few short weeks ago. Although the Irish covered the 6 in the role of road favorite, it took extra time to do so this game will be closer than most people expect.
Air Force vs UNLV
If there’s one thing we know about the Rebels is that they struggle away from home. AFA dropped both games on their recent road trip so it’s fair to expect a fully focused effort against the same UNLV team they pushed to OT at Thomas & Mack. The situation only improves when you take a glance at UNLV’s upcoming schedule which includes home games against San Diego St and Colorado St within the week.
Washington vs Oregon
The Ducks took care of business in their own building when the teams met on January 26 so expect revenge to be on the Huskies mind. Washington limps into the game 1-6 straight up their last 6 knowing any tourney hopes are all but dashed. Despite their win against Utah on Saturday, Oregon sorely misses PG Domenic Artis and will continue to struggle on the road until someone assumes the primary PG role. If you can grab the Huskies -1.5 or less, consider the situation worth noting.
Thursday
George Mason @ Drexel
Trust me when I say the Patriots should be foaming at the mouth with this game looming. Mason blew a 38-25 halftime lead because they couldn’t contain Damion Lee and his 29 pts over the last 20 minutes. Drexel is 3-11 ATS as a favorite this year which includes Sunday’s cover against James Madison. I’m not buying the Dragons as chalk, especially against a Patriots team looking for revenge desperate to make a push for the 2 seed in the Colonial.
One Up, One Down: Streaking, Slumping NCAAB Teams
By Covers.com
March may be mad, but conference play is crazy. It’s tough to keep track of all the movers and shakers in the college ranks, so we break it down for you with one up and one down in each of the six major conferences.
ACC
Up: Virginia Cavaliers (17-6 SU, 13-6-1 ATS)
The Cavs have won back-to-back games heading into Tuesday’s rivalry tilt with Virginia Tech, and have come away with victories in six of their last seven (5-2 ATS).
Down: North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-7 SU, 11-11-0 ATS)
The Wolfpack snapped a three-game losing skid with a one-point squeaker over Clemson this weekend, failing to cover for the third straight game. N.C. State is just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six outings.
Big 12
Up: West Virginia Mountaineers (12-11 SU, 8-11-2 ATS)
Bob Huggins has his team peaking just in time for the home stretch. The Mountaineers have won three straight and four of their last six, posting a 4-2 ATS mark.
Down: Kansas Jayhawks (19-4 SU, 9-13-0 ATS)
Kansas is playing itself out of a No. 1 seed, dropping three straight heading into Monday’s ill-timed clash with rival Kansas State. The Jayhawks have not rocked as chalk, failing to cover as favorites in their last four games.
Big East
Up: Georgetown Hoyas (17-4 SU, 10-7-0 ATS)
The Big East is coming down with a case of Hoyas Paranoia since Georgetown strung together five wins in a row. The Hoyas have one loss in their last eight outings, heading into Monday’s game with Marquette, posting a 7-1 ATS count in that stretch.
Down: Cincinnati Bearcats (18-6 SU, 9-11-0 ATS)
Cincinnati is hitting the wall, losing back-to-back outings including an embarrassing road loss to Providence. Bearcats bettors saw this slide coming thanks to a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10.
Big Ten
Up: Michigan State Spartans (20-4 SU, 9-11-1 ATS)
Injuries slowed down Sparty early in the season, leading to a dismal record against the spread. However, MSU is finally healthy-ish and has won nine of its last 10, going 6-3-1 ATS.
Down: Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-7 SU, 13-9-0 ATS)
Minnesota looked like a possible sleeper in the Big Ten early in the season. Then the Gophers fell asleep. Minnesota has just two wins in its last eight contests, boasting a 3-5 ATS mark in that span.
SEC
Up: Georgia Bulldogs (12-11 SU, 10-9-0 ATS)
Georgia has quietly become the hottest team in SEC hoops, winning five in a row while covering the spread in all of those games. The Bulldogs have benefited from an easy stretch of schedule, though.
Down: Florida Gators (19-3 SU, 12-7-0 ATS)
The upset loss to Arkansas was bad enough. But Gators backers have lost their patience with Florida, which has failed to cover the spread in three straight heading into Tuesday’s game versus Kentucky.
Pac-12
Up: USC Trojans (11-13 SU, 9-12-2 ATS)
In the crazy world of the Pac-12, Southern Cal’s three-game winning streak still stands out (2-0-1 ATS). The Trojans upset UCLA and took out both Washington schools for their first three-game streak in two years.
Down: Oregon Ducks (19-5 SU, 9-13-0 ATS)
Oregon halted a three-game slide with a win over Utah but couldn’t make bettors happy, failing to cover for the sixth straight game. The Ducks are a dreadful 2-8 ATS in their last 10 outings.