Making The Final Cut
By Marc Lawrence
PlayBook.com
Get your dancing shoes ready. With just two weeks remaining to the start of the 2013 NCAA Tournament, teams sitting on the outside looking in are now - more than ever - sweating their bubbles off.
For the legitimate teams who find themselves sitting 'on the tournament bubble', it's now crunch time. And with it the pressure peaks. As Elvis so succinctly put it, "It's now or never."
With postseason conference tournaments now underway it's truly last-gasp time for these teams to make one final impression on the NCAA tournament committee.
However, the truth of the matter is most teams' fates are virtually sealed well before these conference tourneys tip off. Let me explain.
Outside of winning a conference tournament, the fact is unless teams own both a winning overall and winning conference record for the season the chance of being invited to the 'dance' is slim and remote. Teams who post 20 wins for the season often times find that unless they were a 'double-winner', the NCAA is likely to kick them to the curb. And for a lot of the right reasons, we might add.
The brain trust recognizes the fact that 20-win teams who ended the season non-winners in conference play likely picked up the bulk of the victories against inferior, non-conference competition and it just doesn't cut the mustard in the panels' eyes.
Witness Ole Miss and Mississippi State last season. Each 20-win team at regular season's end last year, it didn't matter as they were left at the altar when the committee decided that 8-8 marks in SEC conference play was not a part of the Big Dance formula. FYI: just to prove the committee's worth, both disappointed teams came up empty in opening round NIT home games when the Rebels laid 7-points and the Bulldogs 5.5-points, each losing the game straight-up on the scoreboard.
With this thought in mind, I present of group of six teams winding down the regular season from lined major conferences that currently have or maintain a mathematical shot at 20 wins this season, all of whom are all currently .500 or worse in conference play in games through March 7. They are:
ON THE BUBBLE
ACC:Maryland
Atlantic 10: Charlotte
Big East: Cincinnati
BIG 10: Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota
Notice that any of the half-dozen teams outlined above could catch fire and win their conference tourney, thus automatically gaining a ticket to the Big Dance.
Their performance to date, however, says otherwise. Collectively, this unit has posted a sterling 75-10 SU and 34-25 ATS mark outside the conference this season. In conference play, though, they are just a combined 44-51 SU and 41-53-1 ATS.
Worse, as a pick or favorite in conference games these wannabes are just 20-32-1 ATS this season, including 4-12 ATS versus a greater than .700 opponent.
Thus, unless they suddenly change their ways - and I can't recall the last time a leopard changed its spots - its likely this six-pack will likely wilt under the pressure of having to win games from this point forward.
The heat is on. Let's watch and see what shakes.
Iowa State, Cincinnati On Crazy Runs Against The Total
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
As the Madness nears, two bubble teams are doing some crazy things with the over/under totals in Las Vegas.
We’ll start with Cincinnati, a team that began the season by scoring 80 or more points in its first four games, including a 102-point outburst against Mississippi Valley State.
Those early high-scoring games apparently skewed the numbers, because it’s been almost nothing but UNDERs ever since.
Nineteen of the Bearcats’ 23 games with a posted total have stayed under, including 10 of their last 11. Two of their games that did go OVER needed overtime to do so.
The average total on a Bearcats’ game this season has been 131.89. The average final score in those games equaled 121.9 points.
Nevada sports books do not offer totals on every college basketball game, especially on early-season contests involving low-profile teams. Cincinnati had seven games without totals, most against overmatched opponents.
The 2009-10 Toledo Rockets finished the season with four OVERs and 20 UNDERs. That’s the largest disparity for any team (those with at least 20 games with posted totals) since at least the 2003-04 season, according to TeamRankings.com.
It’s the exact opposite for Iowa State, where the high-scoring Cyclones have eclipsed the total in 18 of 21 games, including their last 12.
Iowa State averages 79.4 and allows 70.4 points per game. Games involving the Cyclones have gone OVER the total by an average of 9.2 points.
Wake Forest went 18-4 to the OVER in 2003-04, the largest disparity for any team in at least the past nine seasons.
Down ACC up at betting window
Remember when North Carolina lost by 18 at Texas? Well, things have changed.
In fact, heading into Saturday night’s showdown at Duke, the Tar Heels, at 19-9 against the spread, have emerged as the hottest bet in the game. North Carolina’s 19 covers are the most in the nation.
The Tar Heels have covered the spread in seven straight games — a streak that began at Duke — and are 12-5 against the spread in ACC play.
Maligned by the media, the ACC, overall, has had success against the spread. Miami is 17-8-1 against the spread; Virginia is 17-10-1 ATS.
ACC teams are a combined 159-138-9 ATS.
Best bets
Samford 17-8-2 ATS
San Francisco 17-8-1 ATS
Oklahoma 17-8 ATS
Miami (Fla) 17-8-1 ATS
North Carolina 19-9 ATS
Worst bets
IUPUI 6-22 ATS
Marshall 6-18-1 ATS
Duquesne 7-18 ATS
TCU 7-18 ATS
UNC-Greensboro 8-17 ATS