Indiana - Kentucky Preview
By Jack Jones
Betfirms.com
The No. 1 seed Kentucky Wildcats are looking for revenge when they take on the No. 4 seed Indiana Hoosiers in the Sweet 16. These teams will square off on Friday, March 23rd at 9:45 EST in Atlanta Georgia. The Hoosiers handed the Wildcats one of their two losses this season with a 73-72 triumph on December 10th. Christian Watford hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer in one of the most exciting finishes of the season.
The Wildcats are expected to have their revenge as oddsmakers in Las Vegas have installed a line of Kentucky -9 over Indiana and a total set of 146 points.
Kentucky
The Wildcats earned the top seed in the entire NCAA Tournament thanks to a tremendous two-loss regular season campaign. The Wildcats enter this game against the Hoosiers with a 34-2 record, and there’s no arguing that they have been the most impressive team in the country the entire season. Their only losses were to Indiana and then to Vanderbilt 64-71 in the SEC Championship. That loss to the Commodores appears to have awoken a sleeping giant.
Kentucky has been very impressive in winning their first two games of the NCAA Tournament. They knocked off in-state foe Western Kentucky 81-66 behind 22 points and 10 rebounds from Terrence Jones. Doron Lamb and Antony Davis each chipped in 16 points, and Davis had a whopping seven blocked shots. The Wildcats used a 20-2 run in the second half to pull away from Iowa State in the next round while cruising to a 87-71 victory. Marquis Teague led the way with 24 points and Darius Miller scored 19 off the bench.
Indiana
Finally, the Hoosiers are back to being a force in college basketball. Head coach Tom Crean has done an excellent job with this squad as he finally has his recruits in place. Indiana opened the season with 12 consecutive victories and a 15-1 starts, which included wins over three teams ranked inside the top-13 at the time they played them. They would hit a brief rough patch before finishing the season strong by winning six of their last seven games. The Hoosiers now sit at 27-8 heading into this showdown with Kentucky.
Indiana had little trouble with New Mexico State in their opener. Jordan Hulls went on a second half shooting spree to lead the Hoosiers to a 79-66 victory. Hulls finished with 22 points, which includes four 3-pointers. Christian Watford, Cody Zeller and Will Sheehey all scored 14 points as well. Despite committing 22 turnovers against VCU in the Round of 32, the Hoosiers were able to prevail 63-61. They got stops on 14 of the Rams’ final 16 possessions, and Sheehey hit a 15-foot jumper with 12.7 seconds left to give Indiana the win.
What to Watch For
Kentucky has so many different players that can beat you on any given night. Indiana did a good job of eliminating Terrence Jones and Anthony Davis in their first meeting as the duo combined for just 10 points. These two combine to average 26.9 points on the season, so focusing on slowing them down again would be a good idea. That’s because even though Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague combined for 52 points, Indiana was still able to prevail in their first meeting.
You can bet the Wildcats will have an eye on Watford at all times after he went off for 20 points in that December 10th showdown, including the game-winner. He just seems to keep coming up big in big games, so Kentucky will look to eliminate him. Their best bet would be to take a page out of VCU’s book and send two defenders at undersized and overwhelmed point guard Jordan Hulls. They need to force him into making hurried decisions, which should lead to turnovers and easy buckets. Slowing down leading scorer and rebounder Cody Zeller (15.5 points, 6.5 rebounds) would be a good idea, too.
Xavier - Baylor Preview
By Jack Jones
Betfirms.com
The No. 3 seed Baylor Bears are set to do battle with the No. 10 seed Xavier Musketeers on Friday, March 23rd. This Sweet 16 showdown will be played in Atlanta, Georgia out of the South Region. Many expected the Bears to make it here, but few had Xavier getting this far.
Taking a look at the NCAA basketball odds, I find a spread of Baylor -6 over Xavier and a total set of 140 points.
Baylor
The Bears have had their share of ups and downs this year, but they are playing their best at the right time. Head coach Scott Drew just has a knack for getting the best out of his players late in the season. Baylor opened the season 17-0, but that was clearly a bit of fool’s gold considering they have a very easy non-conference schedule. The Bears lost back-to-back games twice along the way, and they just weren’t as strong in conference play as many expected they would be.
Baylor heads into this showdown with Xavier sporting a solid 29-7 record. They opened their NCAA Tournament with a hard-fought 68-60 victory over San Diego State. The Bears fell behind 19-7 early, but rallied behind 18 points from Pierre Jackson. Brady Heslip scored 17 points, doing most of his damage with five made 3-pointers. Heslip went on to make nine more 3-pointers while scoring 27 points in their 80-63 blowout victory over Colorado in the Round of 32.
Xavier
The Musketeers have had their fair share of ups and downs this season. Xavier (23-12) opened the year with eight straight victories, including wins over Vanderbilt and Cincinnati. After a brawl with the Bearcats, they would go on to lose five of their next six. The Musketeers also had a 5-6 stretch within conference play later on in the season. They would have to play well down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament. They did so by winning two games over Dayton and St. Louis to reach the Atlantic 10 title game.
Xavier knocked off Notre Dame in a 67-63 thriller in their Round of 64 games. There were certainly some controversial calls late which went the Musketeers’ way, but they got through nonetheless. Senior Tu Holloway put the team on his back in the second half by scoring 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting. The Musketeers would be fortunate to face Lehigh in the next round after the Mountain Hawks upset No. 2 Duke in the previous round. Xavier would run away with a 70-58 victory behind a career-high 25 points and 12 rebounds from Kenny Frease.
What to Watch For
This is a very evenly-matched game at the guard positions, but it could actually favor Xavier. The Musketeers boast the dynamic duo of Holloway (17.4 points, 4.9 assists, 1.5 steals) and Mark Lyons (15.0 points, 1.3 steals). Baylor has solid guards as well in leading scorer Pierre Jackson (13.5 points, 5.8 assists) and sharp-shooter Heslip (10.3 points, 45.6 percent 3-pointers). I’d take Xavier’s duo if I had to choose.
The Bears have a huge advantage inside with their length and athleticism. Forwards Perry Jones III (13.4 points, 7.2 rebounds), Quincy Acy (11.5 points, 7.2 rebounds) and Quincy Miller (11.0 points, 4.9 rebounds) are a tough match-up for any team in the country. Xavier will throw Frease (9.9 points, 6.2 rebounds) and Andre Walker (5.4 points, 5.8 rebounds) at them. While Frease and Walker have a lot of heart, I don’t think that will be enough to slow down this tough Baylor trio inside.
Ohio - North Carolina Preview
By Jack Jones
Betfirms.com
The Midwest Region’s top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels will take on the No. 13 seed Ohio Bobcats in Sweet 16 action. This game will be held in St. Louis, Missouri on Friday, March 23rd at 7:45 EST. Almost everyone figured the Tar Heels would make it this far, but few could have imagined the Bobcats getting here.
Las Vegas bookmakers believe this one is headed for a blowout as their college basketball odds indicate a line of North Carolina -10.5 over Ohio and a total set of 142.5 points.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels have put together another remarkable season under head coach Roy Williams. North Carolina (31-5) only suffered two losses in the ACC during the regular season. They would revenge one of those losses with an emphatic 88-70 win at then-No. 3 Duke in their season finale. That victory would give the Tar Heels the ACC regular season title. They currently rank second in the country in scoring (82.0) and first in rebounds per game (45.2).
UNC has had little trouble advancing to the Sweet 16. They topped Vermont 77-58 in their opener while limiting the Catamounts to just 39.7 percent shooting, including 3-of-18 from 3-point range. Tyler Zeller led the way with 17 points and 15 rebounds. James Michael McAdoo added 17 points in just 23 minutes of play. The Tar Heels would win a shootout over Creighton by a final of 87-73 in their next game. John Henson returned from injury to score 13 points and grab 10 rebounds. He was one of five Tar Heels in double-figures scoring.
Ohio
The Bobcats have quietly put together a really nice season. Ohio (29-7) opened the season on a 12-1 tear with their only loss coming at then-No. 7 Louisville by a final of 59-54. This team was able to win the MAC Tournament with a gut-wrenching 64-63 victory over Akron in the championship. That victory sent the Bobcats into the big dance, and they have certainly taken advantage while carrying over that momentum.
Ohio has been the surprise of the NCAA Tournament to this point. Few gave them a chance against Michigan in their opener, but the Bobcats were able to prevail 65-60. D.J. Cooper came up huge with 21 points on 7-of-11 shooting to lead the way. The Bobcats would be the first No. 13 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 since Bradley in 2006 with their 62-56 triumph over South Florida in the following round. Walter Offutt scored 21 points and Cooper added 19 in the win.
What to Watch For
The health of UNC point guard Kendall Marshall is the big storyline heading into this one. He leads the nation in assists, and his status will likely be huge in determining the outcome of this game. Even if Marshall plays, it’s hard to see how he could be very effective with a fractured wrist. He did recently have a cast removed from his wrist, and replaced with a removable splint. Roy Williams insists he does not know if Marshall will be available for this game.
Freshman Stilman White (4.3 minutes per game) and senior Justin Watts (only two stints at point guard this season) would be first in line to replace Marshall as UNC’s primary ball handlers. If Marshall cannot go, then the Bobcats would actually have a big advantage at the guard positions. Cooper (14.9 points, 5.7 assists) and Offutt (12.0 points) are their two leading scorers.
The Tar Heels are sure to have a big advantage inside. Zeller (16.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks) and Henson (13.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.0 blocks) should have their way. Also, UNC leading scorer Harrison Barnes (17.3 points, 5.2 rebounds) is going to be a tough match-up for the Bobcats because of his versatility.
North Carolina State - Kansas Preview
By Jack Jones
Betfirms.com
The No. 2 seed Kansas Jayhawks will essentially be playing a home game when they take on the No. 11 seed North Carolina State Wolfpack in the Sweet 16. That’s because this game will be held in St. Louis, Missouri, just a few hours away from Lawrence, Kansas. This Midwest Region showdown will take place on Friday, March 23rd at 10:17 EST.
Taking a look at the college basketball spreads, I find a line of Kansas -8 over North Carolina State with a total set of 143 points.
Kansas
The Jayhawks have put together yet another solid season under head coach Bill Self. Kansas (29-6) suffered some lumps early with losses to then-No. 2 Kentucky and then-No. 6 Duke en route to a 3-2 start, but they really turned it on in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks won the regular season conference title with a 16-2 record in one of the best leagues in the country. They would lose to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament, but they have certainly refocused heading into the big dance.
Kansas would get by Detroit in their opener with ease. The Jayhawks used 13-2 and 16-4 runs that allowed them to coast in the second half for a 65-50 victory. The Titans shot just 31.7 percent from the floor, and Thomas Robinson led the way offensively with 17 points and 13 rebounds. Kansas got more than they wanted in their next match-up with Purdue, escaping with a 63-60 triumph. Guard Elijah Johnson scored a team-high 18 points, including the go-ahead basket in the final minute to seal the victory.
North Carolina State
The Wolfpack came into the NCAA Tournament way under the radar. North Carolina State (24-12) has been playing in elimination games since a 77-73 home victory over Miami on February 29th. This team has responded in a big way with their backs against the wall, winning six of their last seven. Their lone loss came in the ACC semifinals against rival UNC by a final of 67-69. Even in defeat, I believe that loss showed that the Wolfpack could play with anyone.
NC State opened their NCAA Tournament with an upset of No. 6 seed San Diego State 79-65. Richard Howell doubled his average by scoring 22 points on 10-of-12 shooting. Lorenze Brown (17 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists) nearly messed around and got a triple double. The Wolfpack pulled off another upset against No. 3 Georgetown 66-63 in the Round of 32. Brown made three free throws in the final 10.6 seconds to seal the victory, but all five starters contributed with at least 9 points each.
What to Watch For
Kansas clearly has the edge at the guard positions. With the duo of Tyshawn Taylor (16.9 points, 4.7 assists) and Elijah Johnson (10.0 points, 3.7 assists), the Jayhawks will have the upper-hand on NC State’s Lorenzo Brown (12.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.8 steals) and C.J. Williams (10.6 points). If Brown can outplay Taylor, then the Wolfpack will have a shot at pulling off the upset.
These teams are pretty evenly-matched inside, though the Jayhawks have the best player in the game in forward Thomas Robinson. The junior forward leads the team in points (17.7) and rebounds (11.8) as he’s a double-double waiting to happen. Center Jeff Withey (9.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.3 blocks) is a force defensively. The Wolfpack counter with the solid trio of C.J. Leslie (14.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks), Scott Wood (12.4 points) and Richard Howell (11.0 points, 9.1 rebounds). Wood is a tough match-up because he hits the 3-pointer at a 41.7 percent clip.
NCAA Preview & Pick: Indiana vs. Kentucky
By Covers.com
No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-9, 144)
THE STORY: A buzzer-beating 3-pointer fired more than three months ago provides part of the backdrop for one of the most intriguing matchups of the Sweet 16, as the Wildcats look to avenge the shot that cost them a perfect regular season. Indiana’s Christian Watford drained that 3-pointer on Dec. 10, giving the Hoosiers a thrilling 73-72 victory at Assembly Hall. Kentucky responded by winning its next 24 in a row, before losing in the SEC title game, and has opened the NCAA tournament with two dominant victories. Indiana is in the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade, has won 10 out of its past 12, and rallied from nine points down in the second round to bounce VCU on Saturday, 63-61.
ABOUT INDIANA (27-8): Indiana’s victory over Kentucky came in the midst of a 15-1 start, as the Hoosiers have returned to national prominence in head coach Tom Crean’s fourth season. Undoubtedly Indiana will have to be better than the season-high 22 turnovers it committed against VCU. Four Hoosiers average double figures; five scored 10 or more points against Kentucky earlier this season. Cody Zeller scored 16 points with 13 rebounds against VCU, and Watford hit four 3-pointers en route to 16 points. Watford hit four 3-pointers and scored 20 points in the victory over Kentucky.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (34-2): The Wildcats shook off that SEC title game loss with two impressive performances in victories over Western Kentucky and Iowa State. Both games underlined how quickly Kentucky’s athleticism on both ends can turn a close game into a blowout. In one 13-minute stretch of Saturday’s victory over Iowa State, the Wildcats scored 42 points to turn a 42-42 tie into an 84-63 lead. Marquis Teague took control of the scoring Saturday (24 points on 10-for-14 shooting). Anthony Davis (15.5 points, 10.5 rebounds in two games) and Terrence Jones (15.0 points, 10.5 rebounds) continue to excel. Jones in particular will be motivated to play the Hoosiers again; he had just four points, one rebound and six turnovers in 28 minutes.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Hoosiers are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
TIP-INS:
1. The winner heads to the South Regional final on Sunday against either Baylor or Xavier.
2. Watford hit the big shot, but the Wildcats gave him and the Hoosiers plenty of opportunities. Kentucky shot just 10-for-17 from the free-throw line in the loss.
3. Talk about pedigree: the Wildcats and Hoosiers have combined for 12 national championships.
Pick: Indiana
NCAA Preview & Pick: Xavier vs. Baylor
By Covers.com
No. 10 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-6, 142.5)
THE STORY: No. 3 seed Baylor survived an early test and pulled away from 11th-seeded Colorado, 80-63, on Saturday. Sophomore Brady Heslip was the catalyst, scoring a career-high 27 points on 9-of-12 3-point shooting. Meanwhile, 10th-seeded Xavier rode a solid defensive effort to its fourth Sweet 16 in five years, holding Lehigh to 14.7 percent (5 for 34) shooting in the second half of a 70-58 third-round triumph Sunday evening. Baylor won its lone previous meeting with the Musketeers, a 69-64 triumph in the finals of the Old Spice Classic on Nov. 29, 2009.
ABOUT XAVIER (23-12): The Musketeers went into a tailspin after a brawl marred the end of their blowout win over Cincinnati on Dec. 10, losing five of their next six games before regrouping over the season's final weeks. Senior PG Tu Holloway, a preseason All-America pick, has been at his best in the postseason, scoring 17 of his game-high 25 points in the second half of a 67-63 second-round win over Notre Dame and following with 21 points against Lehigh. Senior C Kenny Frease, however, was the big difference-maker on Sunday, finishing with a career-best 25 points (on 11-for-13 shooting) and 12 rebounds.
ABOUT BAYLOR (29-7): The Bears have played with a consistency that belies their erratic reputation — all of their losses have come against NCAA tournament teams, with five against either Kansas or Missouri. Baylor has dominated lesser foes with a long, athletic group of NBA talent that has no problem sharing the wealth. Five different players are scoring in double figures, led by junior PG Pierre Jackson (13.5 ppg, 5.8 apg) and sophomore F Perry Jones III (13.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg). Heslip is shooting 45.6 percent from 3-point range, sixth in the country. The Bears are 7-1 on neutral courts this year.
TRENDS:
* Musketeers are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 NCAA tournament games.
* Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA tournament games.
* Over is 6-0 in Musketeers' last six games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-1 in Bears' last six overall.
TIP-INS:
1. Baylor has a significant edge at the foul line (74.9 percent vs. 69.2 for Xavier), but Holloway is one of the nation's top free-throw shooters at 86.0 percent.
2. Neither team has been great in the turnover department — Xavier averages 12.7 giveaways with a minus-0.1 margin, while Baylor turns it over 13.8 times per game.
3. No. 10 seeds have won just four of their 12 previous NCAA Tournament games against No. 3 seeds.
Pick: Baylor
NCAA Preview & Pick: Ohio vs. North Carolina
By Covers.com
No. 13 Ohio Bobcats vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-10.5, 143)
THE STORY: The Sweet 16 is where things are supposed to start getting tougher for the top seeds, but simply going by the number next to the name, that won't be the case for the Tar Heels when they face No. 13 seed Ohio in the Midwest Regional semifinal. The Bobcats, however, have proven to be anything but a pushover, upsetting No. 4 seed Michigan and rallying past No. 12 seed South Florida to reach the round of 16 for the first time since 1964. And the Tar Heels could be without star point guard Kendall Marshall, the nation's leader in assists. Marshall had surgery Monday morning to repair a broken scaphoid bone in his right wrist suffered during the second half of the Tar Heels' win over Creighton in the round of 32.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (31-5): North Carolina remains on a crash course for a regional final showdown against Kansas, coach Roy Williams' former team. But it looks as though the Tar Heels might have to get there without Marshall (8.1 ppg, 9.8 apg), who has been outstanding in the postseason. He has averaged 14.8 points and 10.3 assists in the past six games. With or without Marshall, the Tar Heels will present serious matchup problems for Ohio with 7-foot center Tyler Zeller and 6-foot-11 forward John Henson.
ABOUT OHIO (29-7): The best season in school history keeps getting better for the Bobcats, whose previous school mark for wins was 25. Ohio is doing it with defense, holding opponents to 62.2 points per game. The Bobcats are 62-19 under coach John Groce when holding opponents under 70 points. The Bobcats also got hot from 3-point range against South Florida, going 9 of 18. Junior Walter Offutt made all four of his 3-pointers en route to a game-high 21 points. The Bobcats will need the outside shots to keep falling to neutralize some of North Carolina's size advantage.
TRENDS:
* Bobcats are 9-0 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.
* Tar Heels are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 NCAA tournament games.
* Over is 6-2 in Bobcats' last eight neutral-site games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-2 in Tar Heels' last seven games as favorites.
TIP-INS:
1. The Tar Heels have won 18 of their last 21 NCAA tournament games, and they've won 10 straight games in the Sweet 16.
2. The Bobcats already have set a school record for wins and are trying to notch their first 30-win season. North Carolina already has clinched its 11th 30-win campaign, and its fifth in nine years under Williams.
3. Marshall's 351 assists in 36 games are the most in ACC history and the fourth most in NCAA history. He had double-doubles in each of North Carolina's first two games in the tournament.
Pick: North Carolina
NCAA Preview & Pick: North Carolina State vs. Kansas
By Covers.com
No. 11 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (-8.5, 143)
THE STORY: Kansas looked like it might be headed home before a late rally against Purdue, and now the Jayhawks are headed to their backyard, so to speak, to face the Wolfpack in nearby St. Louis. The winner will face either top-seeded North Carolina or No. 13 seed Ohio in the Midwest Regional final. Both teams have plenty of motivation to see the Tar Heels. North Carolina, coached by former Kansas coach Roy Williams, handed the Wolfpack their only loss in their past seven games, a 69-67 defeat in the ACC tournament.
ABOUT KANSAS (29-6): The Jayhawks led for only 45 seconds of their 63-60 win over No. 10 seed Purdue in the round of 32, but they survived an off night from their stars to reach the Sweet 16 for the fifth time in six seasons. Kansas squeaked by despite national player of the year finalist Thomas Robinson and senior point guard Tyshawn Taylor struggling at the offensive end. Junior guard Elijah Johnson picked up the scoring slack with 18 points. The Jayhawks are unlikely to endure another poor offensive performance from Robinson and Taylor, who combine to average 34.6 points, against an N.C. State team that scores 73.3 points per game.
ABOUT N.C. STATE (24-12): The Wolfpack played their way off the bubble with two wins in the ACC tournament, and they kept rolling into their first Sweet 16 since 2005 with upsets of San Diego State and Georgetown. All five starters average double figures scoring for N.C. State, led by 6-foot-8 junior C.J. Leslie's 14.6 per game. Leslie and 6-8 junior Richard Howell form a tough post duo that will need to have a big game to match Robinson and 7-foot center Jeff Withey.
TRENDS:
* Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites of 7.0-12.5.
* Under is 6-1 in Wolfpack's last seven NCAA tournament games.
* Under is 13-3 in Jayhawks' last 16 NCAA tournament games as favorites.
TIP-INS:
1. Kansas has won 10 of 11 all-time meetings, including all three at neutral sites, one of which was top-seeded Kansas' 75-67 win in the 1986 Elite Eight. The most recent meeting was in the 1996-97 season.
2. Robinson has scored in double digits in 23 consecutive games and has 25 double-doubles, matching Drew Gooden's school record.
3. N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried is the second coach in ACC history to win his first two NCAA tournament games in his first season at an ACC school, joining North Carolina's Bill Guthridge in 1998. Gottfried is trying to make his second Elite Eight -- he did so with Alabama in 2004.
Pick: Kansas
NCAAB Preview
Xavier is in Sweet 16 for fourth time in last five years; they're 2-0-1 vs spread in this round, winning by 4 in OT (+1.5), losing by 5 (+7), losing by 5 in double OT (+5). Musketeers were down 15 in first half Sunday vs Lehigh, pulled away from tired team late and won by 12. Baylor was 19-40 from arc in Albuquerque last weekend;this game is in a dome, not a normal basketball venue- will 3-point shooting be an issue (Xavier is less dependent on shooting 3's). Bears have been this far once before, in '10- they beat St Mary's by 23 in similar role as favorite. Musketeers are holding foes to 30.5% behind arc- this is the key stat to this game.
Ohio Bobcats are #2 team in country at forcing turnovers (26.3% of all possessions); now they're facing team whose only healthy PG is White, a 6-0 freshman who hardly got mentioned in preseason magazines. Ohio won 10 of last 11 games- their highest profile game this season was loss at Louisville (59-54) back in December. Henson is playing with injured left wrist, Marshall (broken wrist) is highly doubtful to play here, but since 2001, double digit seeds (Ohio is a 13) are 1-8 vs spread when up against a #1 seed in this round, with all nine losses by 10+ points, seven of nine by 15+. UNC won/covered its last four games in this round.
Kentucky (-5.5) lost 73-72 at Indiana Dec 10, despite shooting 55% for game; Davis played 24 foul-plagued minutes. Indiana made 9-15 on arc, got 34 minutes from PG Jones, who is out now. Wildcat were 42-all in last game vs Iowa State, won by 16 with explosive scoring bursts- they shot 55% from floor, 10-20 from arc. Indiana held VCU to four points in final 11:00 last game, For whatever reason, Southeast has been good for favorites (7-1 vs spread in this round last four years, compared to 13-15 in other three regions). Since 2001, #1 seeds are 23-18 vs spread in this round. Kentucky is eager for revenge; this game is in SEC country.
Since 2003, double digit seeds not playing a #1 seed in this round are 2-5 vs spread, 1-4 as an underdog; NC State won six of its last seven games, beat Texas 77-74 in only game vs Big X opponent this year. Kansas is 11-1 in its last 12 games, with five of those wins vs top 40 teans- they hold teams to 39.8% inside arc (#2 in country). Jayhawks lost to Duke by 7, in its only game vs an ACC opponent. Since '05, #2 seeds are 5-8 in this round; favorites of 8+ points are 0-5 vs spread during that time. Wolfpack lost four games in row in mid-February, looked like dead club, so they're playing with house money here. Pressure is on Kansas.
Armadillosports.com
South Regional Sweet 16 Picks
Sportspic.com
Xavier Musketeers vs. Baylor Bears
As March Madness betting experts know, the Xavier Musketeers are one of the longest of long shots to make the Final Four. Xavier has suffered through a very inconsistent season. The Musketeers were a No. 6 seed in 2011 and 2010, but they dropped to a No. 10 seed with a veteran lineup. Xavier is in this game because it was good enough to beat Notre Dame and Lehigh, but it’s also necessary to point out that Xavier needed a Notre Dame lane violation with 2.8 seconds left in regulation to beat the Irish; they probably would have gone to overtime without that violation on a made Notre Dame foul shot. Then, Xavier benefited from the second-biggest upset of the tournament so far, Lehigh’s conquest of second-seeded Duke.
If Xavier had played Duke on Sunday, the Musketeers would very likely be home right now. Baylor is an inconsistent team. The Bears have endured many rocky patches in their own right this season, but the Bears are stronger and quicker at most spots on the floor. They have better shooters and have performed at a much higher level than Xavier has all season long. Take Baylor in this game. The Bears are a loaded team that should be able to make Xavier pay for any mistakes it makes on Friday evening in Atlanta.
College Basketball Betting Pick: Baylor
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kentucky Wildcats
When you do your homework and assess your Sports Bet on this game, College Basketball betting experts will tell you that the odds do not favor Indiana for several very simple reasons. First of all, it’s hard to beat a team as good as Kentucky on one occasion; Indiana will be attempting to do the deed a second time this season. Moreover, Indiana will be playing this game without guard Verdell Jones, an important defender for IU who adds depth to coach Tom Crean’s rotation and enables role players to be that much more effective when coming off the bench.
Kentucky is a team that wears down opponents with its high energy level and constant defensive pressure. Indiana needs Jones in a game like this, but with Jones out for the season with an injury, the cards are simply stacked against the Hoosiers. Kentucky can fall in love with the three-point shot and suffer as a result, but the Wildcats are likely to learn their lesson this time around. All these reasons add up to a Kentucky victory inside the Georgia Dome.
There are two more convincing reasons to pick Kentucky here. One is that in the Dec. 10 game won by Indiana, Kentucky big man Anthony Davis got into foul trouble for one of the few times this season. That’s not likely to happen again. Second, Indiana has been extraordinarily good inside its home gymnasium, Assembly Hall, but very average outside it. Safe to say, this game isn’t inside Assembly Hall. Advantage, Wildcats.
College Basketball Betting Pick: Kentucky
Midwest Regional Sweet 16 Picks
Sportspic.com
Ohio Bobcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
As experts who bet on March Madness know, North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall is likely going to miss this game because of a fracture to a small bone in his right wrist. Marshall is the engine that makes the Carolina offense go. The Tar Heels floundered in late 2010 and early 2011 when Larry Drew III was their point guard. When Marshall stepped in, however, the Tar Heels flourished. North Carolina plays with its preferred up-tempo look when Marshall is in the game. When Marshall is out of the lineup, the Tar Heels have a much tougher time distributing the ball and getting both the movement and spacing they need in their halfcourt sets.
The Ohio Bobcats, having already beaten fourth-seeded Michigan and a tough defensive opponent from South Florida, could definitely give North Carolina trouble. Don’t look at the 12-number difference in seedings (Ohio is No. 13 in the Midwest Region, North Carolina the top seed), because North Carolina is probably a No. 8 seed without Marshall. Ohio is playing better than a No. 13 seed. Ultimately, this is about matchups and their particularities.
North Carolina has so much size near the rim with Tyler Zeller and John Henson that it should be able to kill Ohio on the boards. Even if North Carolina doesn’t hit jump shots, it should be able to win this game on the glass. Go with North Carolina… in a close one.
College Basketball Betting Pick: North Carolina
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Kansas Jayhawks
When you do your homework and assess your sports bet on this game, College Basketball Betting experts will tell you that Kansas is anything but a sure thing in this contest. The Jayhawks played terribly against Purdue on Sunday evening. Only one player, Elijah Johnson, hit perimeter shots with any degree of regularity, and it is this lack of reliable knockdown shooters that makes Kansas an incomplete team. North Carolina State will likely pack in its defense and force Kansas to make shots.
What works in Kansas’ favor, though, is that the Jayhawks aren’t likely to shoot as poorly in this game as they did against Purdue. Moreover, Kansas has more strength and power than North Carolina State does within five feet of the rim. North Carolina State has a short bench, and the Wolfpack have been very prone to foul trouble this season. If anyone on North Carolina State’s roster gets into big foul trouble, the Wolfpack will quickly run out of bodies, which means that they’ll run out of gas in the final 10 minutes of regulation.
There’s a very real chance that N.C. State can win this game, but the margins are much smaller for the Pack than they are for the Jayhawks. The percentage choice in this contest is definitely Kansas. The Jayhawks should play well after pulling off an escape job this past weekend.
College Basketball Betting Pick: Kansas
South Region Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Xavier vs. Baylor
As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Baylor (29-7 straight up, 14-15 against the spread) as a six-point favorite with the total in the 141-142 range. Gamblers can take the Musketeers to win outright for a plus-240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).
Just as I suggested in one of last week’s rants, Xavier (23-12 SU, 13-18-2 ATS) was able to put its disappointing regular season in the rearview mirror once it narrowly got to the NCAA Tournament. I thought the matchup with Notre Dame was a good one for the Musketeers, who came from 10 points down to capture a 67-63 win as two-point underdogs thanks to a stellar effort from Tu Holloway. The senior point guard made amends for his terrible performance against Marquette last year by dropping 25 points on the Irish. Holloway made 10-of-15 shots from the field, while Dezmine Wells added 14 points and 11 rebounds.
Chris Mack’s team advanced to the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five seasons with a 70-58 come-from-behind win over 15th-seeded Lehigh, which has beaten No. 2 seed Duke on Friday night. Xavier took out the Mountain Hawks and hooked up its backers as a four-point favorite. Kenny Frease was the difference with a career-high 25 points and 12 rebounds. Holloway added 21 points.
In the win over Lehigh, Xavier’s Wells was limited to eight minutes of playing time after spraining his toe. He’s listed as ‘probable’ against the Bears although he’s been limited at practice this week.
Baylor has won seven of its last nine games, compiling a 6-3 spread record. The Bears got past an underrated South Dakota team in their NCAA opener, 68-60. They took the cash as 7½-point favorites. Pierre Jackson scored a team-high 18 points and Brady Heslip had 17 points thanks to 5-of-10 shooting from 3-point range.
Heslip was the catalyst in Saturday night’s 80-63 win over a Colorado team that was on fire. The sophomore sharpshooter buried 9-of-12 treys in a 27-point effort that led the Bears to the cover as 7½-point ‘chalk.’ Jackson added 15 points, 10 assists and five steals.
Baylor owns a 7-8 spread record in 15 games as a single-digit favorite.
Xavier is 4-4 ATS with three outright wins in eight games as underdog. The Musketeers collected outright victories at Vanderbilt, vs. Saint Louis and Notre Dame on neutral courts.
The ‘over’ is 18-15 overall for Xavier.
The ‘over’ is 16-13 overall for Baylor, 5-1 in its last six games.
Tip-off is slated for 7:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
Kentucky vs. Indiana
Most books are listing No. 1 overall seed Kentucky (34-2 SU, 13-21-1 ATS) as a nine-point favorite with a total of 145. IU is plus-425 on the money line (risk $100 to win $425).
Indiana (27-8 SU, 18-11 ATS) played from behind for most of the game but used a late run to slip past VCU by a 63-61 count as a 5 ½-point favorite. Will Sheehey’s baseline jumper with 12.7 seconds left proved to be the game winner. Cody Zeller scored 16 points and pulled down 13 rebounds and Christian Watford also chipped in with 16 points.
This is IU’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since the debacle of Kelvin Sampson’s tenure and this is its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2002. Tom Crean has been in the Big Dance before, however, taking Marquette to the Final Four behind Dwyane Wade in 2003. Due to that tourney inexperience and the loss of senior Verdell Jones III to injury in the Big Ten Tournament, many thought New Mexico St. might be able to pull an upset in its opener against IU. But the Hoosiers didn’t play along with that notion, winning 79-66 as six-point ‘chalk.’
When these schools met at Assembly Hall in Bloomington on Dec. 10, Indiana won a 73-72 decision thanks to Watford’s buzzer beater from the left wing. Watford scored a game-high 20 points. The Hoosiers were aided by UK’s Anthony Davis getting into foul trouble and being limited to just 24 minutes of playing time. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had 18 points and nine rebounds in the losing effort.
Kentucky advanced to the Sweet 16 with an 87-71 win over Iowa St. that snapped a four-game ATS slide. The Wildcats took the money as 12-point favorites. Marquis Teague led the way with 24 points, seven assists and four rebounds. Anthony Davis added 15 points, 12 boards, five assists and a pair of blocked shots.
John Calipari’s team has posted a 4-6 spread record in 10 games as a single-digit favorite.
Indiana owns a 7-2 spread record with six outright wins in nine games as an underdog.
The ‘under’ is 19-14-2 overall.
Totals have been an overall wash for the Hoosiers (14-14-1), but we should point out that the ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run in their last nine games.
This game will tip 30 minutes after Baylor-Xavier concludes.
Midwest Region Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
These games will be played at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis.
North Carolina vs. Ohio
As of early this afternoon, most betting shops had North Carolina (31-5 straight up, 20-15 against the spread) installed as a 10½-point favorite with a total of 143. Gamblers can take the Bobcats to win outright for a plus-550 return (risk $100 to win $550).
UNC will most likely be playing without its floor general, sophomore point guard Kendall Marshall. He sustained a broken bone in his right wrist this past Sunday and had surgery on Monday. Marshall, who averages 7.2 points and 9.6 assists per game, is listed as ‘doubtful.’
UNC advanced to the Sweet 16 with a pair of wins (and spread covers) in Greensboro last weekend over Vermont and Creighton. The Tar Heels bounced the Catamounts by a 77-58 count as 16-point favorites. John Henson sat out his third straight game with a sprained wrist, but UNC got 17 points, 15 rebounds and four blocked shots from Tyler Zeller.
Roy Williams’s team thumped Creighton 87-73 as an 8½-point favorite this past Sunday thanks to a sensational effort from Marshall, who finished with 18 points and 11 assists. Harrison Barnes added 17 points against the Bluejays, while Henson returned to the lineup and produced 13 points, 10 boards and four blocked shots.
Ohio (29-7 SU, 15-13 ATS) brings a six-game winning streak to St. Louis after pulling a pair of moderate upsets last weekend over Michigan and South Florida. The Bobcats took out the Wolverines by capturing a 65-60 victory as 5½-point underdogs. D.J. Cooper led the way with a game-high 21 points and five assists, as he drained 7-of-11 shots from the field.
After trailing by six at intermission against a red-hot South Florida squad, Ohio rallied to win a 62-56 decision as a two-point underdog. The win lifted the Bobcats to their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1964. Walter Offutt buried all four of his 3-point attempt en route to scoring a game-high 21 points. Cooper added 19 points, seven assists and a pair of steals.
UNC’s Roy Williams owns the best coaching record of anyone left in the field. From his time at Kansas and UNC, Williams is 60-19 for a .759 winning percentage.
UNC has been a double-digit favorite 20 times this year, going 12-8 ATS with four consecutive covers in such situations.
Ohio owns a 6-2 spread record with five outright wins in eight underdog spots this year.
The ‘under’ is 16-12 overall for Ohio, 4-2 in its last six games.
-he ‘over’ is 18-17 overall for UNC, 5-2 in its last seven outings.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. Eastern on TBS.
North Carolina State vs. Kansas
Most books are listing Kansas (29-6 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) as an eight-point favorite with a total of 143. The Wolfpack can be had on the money line for a plus-350 payout (risk $100 to win $350).
Kansas played from behind nearly the entire game but got crucial stops at crunch time and survived a game effort from Purdue and its star senior Robbie Hummel in a 60-57 non-covering win as an eight-point ‘chalk.’ Elijah Johnson stepped up to score a team-high 18 points. Thomas Robinson finished with 11 points and 13 rebounds.
Bill Self’s team won its NCAA opener over Detroit by a 65-50 score as a 13½-point favorite. Robinson paced the Jayhawks with 16 points and 13 rebounds.
North Carolina St. (24-12 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) has won six of its last seven games with the lone defeat coming against North Carolina by a bucket in the ACC Tournament semifinals. During this stretch, Mark Gottfried’s squad owns a 6-0-1 spread record.
N.C. St. used a balanced offensive attack to sneak past Georgetown 66-63 as a four-point underdog to get back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005. C.J. Leslie scored 14 points, pulled down eight rebounds and blocked three shots. Scott Wood and C.J. Williams also had 14 points apiece against the Hoyas.
KU has a 7-6 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’
N.C. St. has been an underdog 14 times, cashing tickets at a lucrative 10-4 ATS clip.
The ‘under’ is 20-12-2 overall for the Jayhawks.
The ‘over’ is 19-13 overall for N.C. St. 8-3 in its last 11 games.