SEC Tourney quarterfinals
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The afternoon session for Friday’s SEC Tournament quarterfinals will start at 1:00 p.m. Eastern when top-ranked Kentucky takes on LSU. Florida and Alabama will square off in the second game. Let’s take a look at both of these contests and more…
Kentucky vs. LSU
Most betting shops opened Kentucky (30-1 straight up, 12-17-1 against the spread) as a 16½-point favorite. As of early Thursday night, no total had been posted.
Since going through a brutal 0-13-1 ATS slide that last nearly two months, John Calipari’s team has covered the number at a lucrative 9-4 ATS clip. UK wrapped up the regular season this past Sunday by going into Gainesville and knocking off Florida, 74-59, as a five-point road ‘chalk.’ Anthony Davis led the way with 22 points, 12 rebounds and six blocked shots. He made 9-of-13 shots from the field, as did Terrence Jones, who tallied 19 points, four boards, three blocks and a pair of steals.
LSU (18-13 SU, 17-11 ATS) advanced to play another day (and probably locked up a bid to the NIT) by beating Arkansas by a 70-54 count in the tournament’s lid-lifter Thursday afternoon. The Tigers took the cash as ½-point favorites. The 124 combined points fell ‘under’ the 136½-point total. Johnny O’Bryant III was the catalyst with 18 points and 11 rebounds in just 22 minutes of playing time off the bench.
When these teams met in Baton Rouge on Jan. 28, Kentucky cruised to a 74-50 win as a 10-point road favorite. Jones enjoyed one of his best games of the season, finished with 27 points, nine rebounds, three blocked shots and two steals. Davis had 16 points, 10 boards and three rejections. In the losing effort, O’Bryant had 12 points and nine rebounds.
Kentucky has been a double-digit favorite 22 times, compiling an 8-13-1 ATS ledger.
LSU has a 1-3 spread record in four games as a double-digit underdog.
The ‘under’ is 16-12 overall for LSU, 4-1 in its last five games.
The ‘under’ is 17-11 overall for Kentucky.
Alabama vs. Florida
Florida (22-9 SU, 11-14-1 ATS) brings a three-game losing streak to The Big Easy, but it says here that that’s a misleading factoid. The Gators did indeed have a bad loss at Georgia (76-62 two Saturdays ago), but there’s no shame in losing at Vanderbilt or vs. Kentucky.
Alabama (21-10 SU, 12-15 ATS) had to struggle and failed to cover in Thursday’s 63-57 win over South Carolina as a 9½-point favorite. Trevor Lacey came off the bench to score a game-high 15 points in just 17 minutes of action. JaMychal Green added 12 points and seven rebounds for the Tide.
Anthony Grant’s team has won five of its last six games to almost certainly clinch an at-large invite to the NCAA Tournament regardless of the result in this game vs. UF.
When these teams met at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama was without its two leading scorers Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green. Mitchell’s suspension remains in effect, but Green has now returned. The game was tied at intermission but UF went on a 16-0 run to start the second half and went on to capture a 61-52 win as a three-point road favorite. Patric Young scored 19 points for the Gators, while Bradley Beal and Erik Murphy finished with 14 points apiece. Andrew Steele had a team-high 11 points for ‘Bama.
Billy Donovan’s team has compiled a 6-4 spread record in 10 single-digit ‘chalk’ situations. Meanwhile, Alabama is 2-2 ATS in four games as an underdog.
The ‘over’ is 16-10 overall for UF.
The ‘over’ is 14-13 overall for ‘Bama, but the ‘under’ is 5-2 in its last seven games.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
I might end up being incorrect on my all-year-long assertion that South Carolina’s Darrin Horn is on his way out after a brutal campaign. The fourth-year head coach has yet to take the Gamecocks to the NCAA Tournament. However, a VegasInsider.com source that is close to the program has indicated that the chances are good that he’ll be retained because of the school’s desire to not pay the $2.4 million buyout. The logical replacement would be Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall, who spent time in the state when he was at Winthrop. But the same source told VI that Marshall, who undoubtedly wants the job, has rubbed a few important people (USC higher-ups) the wrong way. We shall see what happens with this situation…
Northwestern: I feel your pain.
Northwestern’s loss is Tennessee’s gain and could also benefit Mississippi St.
SEC Tournament: Day 2 Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats (-16.5, N/A)
THE STORY: LSU tries its luck at derailing a No. 1-ranked Kentucky team that’s won 22 straight games. The Tigers barely put up a fight against the Wildcats the first time, as Kentucky rolled to a 74-50 win in Baton Rouge on Jan. 28. Kentucky has dominated the SEC tournament, winning the event 27 times – 21 times more than second-place Alabama.
TRENDS:
- Four of LSU's last five have played over the total.
- LSU has covered in seven straight neutral-site games.
- Kentucky has covered in eight of its last 11 overall.
TIP-INS:
1. Kentucky is 14-2 against LSU in the conference tournament, including three wins in the title game.
2. LSU’s Malcolm White was ejected from the first game between the teams because of a flagrant foul.
3. Kentucky is 74-1 under coach John Calipari when holding an opponent to 67 or fewer points.
PICK: Wildcats
Mississippi Rebels vs. Tennessee Volunteers (N/A)
THE STORY: The last time the Rebels and Volunteers met, Tennessee won. Neither team has lost since that Feb. 22 matchup in Knoxville, and both teams need to keep winning to bolster their NCAA tournament hopes. The Volunteers hope to continue their amazing turnaround from a 0-4 start in conference play to the second seed and a first-round bye in the SEC tournament. Mississippi pulled away from Auburn in the tournament’s opening round Thursday, extending its winning streak to four games behind Nick Williams’ career-high 22 points.
TRENDS:
- Mississippi is 11-5 against the spread in its last 16 games following an ATS win.
- Tennessee has covered the number in four straight.
- Under is 15-7-1 in Tennessee's last 23 overall.
TIP-INS:
1. The Rebels lost an early 13-point lead in a 73-60 loss at Tennessee last month. Tennessee’s Jeronne Maymon scored 18 points with 13 rebounds for the Volunteers, while Henry led the Rebels with 15 points.
2. A victory would give Mississippi 20 victories for the fifth time in the past six seasons.
3. Tennessee freshman Jarnell Stokes, who joined the Volunteers at midseason, won SEC Player of the Week honors last week after averaging 14.5 points and 10.5 rebounds.
PICK: N/A
ACC Tournament: Day 2 Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
Maryland Terrapins vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-15.5, N/A)
THE STORY: Conference Player of the Year Tyler Zeller (16.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg) leads the top-seeded Tar Heels into a quarterfinal matchup with No. 8 seed Maryland in the ACC tournament. If UNC can win its third ACC tournament in the Roy Williams era, the Tar Heels should secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. UNC will have a huge edge inside with Zeller, John Henson (14.2 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Harrison Barnes (17.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg). The Tar Heels, ranked fourth in the national polls, won both meetings this season, 83-74 in College Park, Md., and 88-64 in Chapel Hill, N.C.
TRENDS:
- Maryland has covered in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams.
- North Carolina is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven.
- The over is 4-1 in Maryland's last five.
TIP-INS:
1. Stoglin’s 25 points vs. Wake Forest were the most by a Terp in an ACC tourney game since John Gilchrist scored 30 in Maryland’s 95-87 win over Duke in the 2004 title game.
2. Terps coach Mark Turgeon is 9-11 in conference tourney games, including his days at Texas A&M and Wichita State.
3. UNC sophomore PG Kendall Marshall, who had 10 assists in the regular-season finale against Duke, has reached double figures in assists a school-record 13 times this season.
PICK: Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5, N/A)
THE STORY: Short-handed Virginia tries to reach the ACC semifinals for the first time since 1995 when the fourth-seeded Cavs clash with the fifth-seeded Wolfpack. Virginia learned this week that freshman guard Malcolm Brogdon has a broken bone in his foot and is done for the season, leaving the team with seven scholarship players. Sophomore forward Akil Mitchell is the only Virginia starter who hasn’t played at least 35 minutes in each of the past two games. NC State advanced with a 78-57 win over Wake Forest on Thursday as Scott Wood buried five 3-pointers en route to 22 points. Virginia won the only meeting with NC State this season, 61-60 in Raleigh, N.C.
TRENDS:
- The over is 19-7 in Virginia's last 26 overall.
- The over is 6-1 in NC State's last seven.
- Virginia has covered in six straight versus NC State.
TIP-INS:
1. The Cavaliers’ No. 4 seed is their highest since 2007 (No. 2).
2. Virginia owns nine road or neutral-site wins, most since the team posted 10 in 1990-91.
3. Leslie has scored in double figures in 25 of the 28 games he’s played. He had 11 points and 11 rebounds in Thursday’s win over Boston College.
PICK: Wolfpack
Big 12 Tournament: Day 3 Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
Baylor Bears vs. Kansas Jayhawks (-5.5, N/A)
THE STORY: Baylor is the only team to knock off league power Kansas in the Big 12 tournament since 2005. The top-seeded Jayhawks will have to avoid the same fate to keep alive their hopes of a sixth tournament title in seven years at Kansas City. Kansas dominated two meetings during the regular season, winning by an average of 16 points. The Jayhawks have won 16 of their last 17 Big 12 tournament games, while Baylor has made the final only once, losing to Missouri in the 2009 championship.
TRENDS:
- Baylor is 11-24 against the spread in its last 35 Big 12 games.
- The under is 8-1 in Kansas' last nine neutral-site games.
- Kansas is 1-5-1 against the spread in its last seven following an ATS win.
TIP-INS:
1. Kansas forward Thomas Robinson, the Big 12 Player of the Year, had 19 points and 10 rebounds against the Aggies for his 23rd double-double of the season.
2. Baylor is 22-1 when leading at the half.
3. Jones' 31 points against Kansas State matched Baylor's school record for a Big 12 tournament game, tying Curtis Jerrells' performance against Missouri in 2007.
PICK: Jayhawks
MARYLAND (17 - 14) vs. N CAROLINA (27 - 4) - 3/9/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARYLAND is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MARYLAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NC STATE (21 - 11) vs. VIRGINIA (22 - 8) - 3/9/2012, 2:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.
NC STATE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in conference tournament games since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 4-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 4-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VIRGINIA TECH (16 - 16) vs. DUKE (26 - 5) - 3/9/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 3-2 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 4-1 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI (19 - 11) vs. FLORIDA ST (21 - 9) - 3/9/2012, 9:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 5-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MASSACHUSETTS (21 - 10) vs. TEMPLE (24 - 6) - 3/9/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MASSACHUSETTS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 156-115 ATS (+29.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
MASSACHUSETTS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 3-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 3-0 straight up against MASSACHUSETTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ST JOSEPHS (20 - 12) vs. ST BONAVENTURE (17 - 11) - 3/9/2012, 2:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST BONAVENTURE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ST JOSEPHS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games this season.
ST JOSEPHS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST JOSEPHS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
ST JOSEPHS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST JOSEPHS is 3-1 against the spread versus ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
ST BONAVENTURE is 2-2 straight up against ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LASALLE (21 - 11) vs. SAINT LOUIS (24 - 6) - 3/9/2012, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAINT LOUIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less this season.
LASALLE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
LASALLE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
LASALLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
LASALLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAINT LOUIS is 2-1 against the spread versus LASALLE over the last 3 seasons
SAINT LOUIS is 2-1 straight up against LASALLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DAYTON (20 - 11) vs. XAVIER (19 - 11) - 3/9/2012, 8:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
XAVIER is 89-60 ATS (+23.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
XAVIER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DAYTON is 6-2 against the spread versus XAVIER over the last 3 seasons
XAVIER is 5-3 straight up against DAYTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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IOWA (17 - 15) vs. MICHIGAN ST (24 - 7) - 3/9/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 3-3 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 5-1 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANA (25 - 7) vs. WISCONSIN (23 - 8) - 3/9/2012, 2:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
INDIANA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 5-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (19 - 13) vs. MICHIGAN (23 - 8) - 3/9/2012, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PURDUE (21 - 11) vs. OHIO ST (25 - 6) - 3/9/2012, 8:55 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 3-2 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 3-2 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LSU (18 - 13) vs. KENTUCKY (30 - 1) - 3/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 96-68 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
LSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 79-54 ATS (+19.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 3-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 3-0 straight up against LSU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ALABAMA (21 - 10) vs. FLORIDA (22 - 9) - 3/9/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 55-31 ATS (+20.9 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 3-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 3-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OLE MISS (19 - 12) vs. TENNESSEE (18 - 13) - 3/9/2012, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GEORGIA (15 - 16) vs. VANDERBILT (21 - 10) - 3/9/2012, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 4-3 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
VANDERBILT is 6-1 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MARSHALL (20 - 12) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (25 - 7) - 3/9/2012, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MARSHALL is 4-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
MARSHALL is 3-2 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UCF (22 - 9) at MEMPHIS (24 - 8) - 3/9/2012, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus UCF over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 4-1 straight up against UCF over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CINCINNATI (23 - 9) vs. SYRACUSE (31 - 1) - 3/9/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
SYRACUSE is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 3-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 3-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOUISVILLE (24 - 9) vs. NOTRE DAME (22 - 10) - 3/9/2012, 9:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 3-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 2-2 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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KENT ST (21 - 10) vs. AKRON (21 - 10) - 3/9/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 4-3 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 4-3 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OHIO U (25 - 7) vs. BUFFALO (18 - 9) - 3/9/2012, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 5-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 4-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BAYLOR (26 - 6) vs. KANSAS (27 - 5) - 3/9/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 3-1 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 4-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TEXAS (20 - 12) vs. MISSOURI (28 - 4) - 3/9/2012, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MISSOURI is 3-1 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
MISSOURI is 3-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OREGON ST (19 - 13) vs. ARIZONA (22 - 10) - 3/9/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 5-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-3 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO (21 - 11) vs. CALIFORNIA (24 - 8) - 3/9/2012, 11:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 3-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 2-1 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (20 - 10) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (25 - 6) - 3/9/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 4-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-1 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW MEXICO (25 - 6) at UNLV (26 - 7) - 3/9/2012, 11:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 4-2 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HAWAII (16 - 15) vs. NEW MEXICO ST (24 - 9) - 3/9/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 4-2 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO ST is 4-2 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOUISIANA TECH (17 - 15) vs. NEVADA (26 - 5) - 3/9/2012, 11:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISIANA TECH is 3-2 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 5-1 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UC-IRVINE (12 - 19) vs. LONG BEACH ST (23 - 8) - 3/9/2012, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UC-IRVINE is 5-2 against the spread versus LONG BEACH ST over the last 3 seasons
LONG BEACH ST is 5-2 straight up against UC-IRVINE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAL POLY-SLO (18 - 14) vs. UC-SANTA BARBARA (19 - 9) - 3/9/2012, 11:59 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UC-SANTA BARBARA is 4-2 against the spread versus CAL POLY-SLO over the last 3 seasons
UC-SANTA BARBARA is 5-1 straight up against CAL POLY-SLO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ALCORN ST (10 - 21) vs. TEXAS SOUTHERN (13 - 17) - 3/9/2012, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS SOUTHERN is 6-0 straight up against ALCORN ST over the last 3 seasons
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ARK-PINE BLUFF (11 - 21) vs. MISS VALLEY ST (18 - 13) - 3/9/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MISS VALLEY ST is 1-0 against the spread versus ARK-PINE BLUFF over the last 3 seasons
ARK-PINE BLUFF is 4-3 straight up against MISS VALLEY ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HAMPTON (12 - 20) vs. BETHUNE-COOKMAN (17 - 16) - 3/9/2012, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BETHUNE-COOKMAN is 3-2 straight up against HAMPTON over the last 3 seasons
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FLORIDA A&M (10 - 22) vs. NORFOLK ST (23 - 9) - 3/9/2012, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORFOLK ST is 3-0 straight up against FLORIDA A&M over the last 3 seasons
MASSACHUSETTS vs. TEMPLE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Temple's last 8 games when playing Massachusetts
Temple is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Massachusetts
IOWA vs. MICHIGAN STATE
No trends available
Michigan State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Iowa
Michigan State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
MARYLAND vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
North Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Maryland
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LSU vs. KENTUCKY
No trends available
Kentucky is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing LSU
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Virginia's last 10 games when playing North Carolina State
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing North Carolina State
INDIANA vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Wisconsin is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
SAINT JOSEPH'S vs. ST. BONAVENTURE
No trends available
St. Bonaventure is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
St. Bonaventure is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing Saint Joseph's
ALABAMA vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Alabama
Florida is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
LA SALLE vs. SAINT LOUIS
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saint Louis's last 6 games when playing La Salle
Saint Louis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
CINCINNATI vs. SYRACUSE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Syracuse's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Syracuse is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
BAYLOR vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Baylor
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
DAYTON vs. XAVIER
No trends available
Xavier is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Xavier's last 8 games
Big East tournament: Semifinals Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Syracuse Orange (-7 N/A)
THE STORY: Both top-seeded Syracuse and No. 4 seed Cincinnati were fortunate to escape their quarterfinal matchups, with the Orange rallying past Connecticut, 58-55, and the Bearcats advancing past Georgetown in double overtime, 72-70, on Cashmere Wright's runner with 7.6 seconds to go. Syracuse used a late 12-2 run to earn a narrow 60-53 win at Cincinnati back on Jan. 23, holding the Bearcats to 34 percent shooting. That victory began the current 11-game win streak by the Orange.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (23-9, 12-6 Big East): The Bearcats rebounded from an early-season loss (and bench-clearing brawl) at Xavier, winning 18 of their 24 games since that nadir. Cincinnati has excelled defensively, ranking among the league leaders in points allowed (61.3) and turnover margin (plus-3.6), but the offense has been extremely erratic. The team's free-throw percentage of 64.8 was the worst in the conference, and its field-goal percentage of 42.0 was 15th. The Bearcats were held to 55 points or fewer in six of their nine losses. Senior forward Yancy Gates led the way on Thursday with 23 points and eight rebounds against Georgetown.
ABOUT SYRACUSE (31-1, 17-1 Big East): The Orange have been tested multiple times since their lone defeat at Notre Dame on Jan. 21, with eight of their last 11 games decided by 10 points or fewer, but the nation's No. 2 team has come out on top each time, remaining unbeaten when sophomore center Fab Melo (3.1 blocks per game) is in the lineup. Syracuse led the Big East in scoring margin (14.7), field-goal percentage (46.7), blocked shots (7.2), steals (9.6) and turnover margin (plus-6.25). Sophomore guard Dion Waiters paced the always-balanced Orange with 18 points against Connecticut on Thursday afternoon.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
TIP-INS:
1. Including this year's victory, Syracuse has won seven of nine meetings with Cincinnati since the Bearcats joined the Big East before the 2005-06 season.
2. Cincinnati is now 4-5 all-time in the Big East tournament, and this marks its first-ever semifinal appearance.
3. The teams have met just once in conference tourney play, with Syracuse edging Cincinnati, 74-73, in the first round en route to the 2006 championship.
Pick: Syracuse -7
Big Ten tournament: Day 2 Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans (-11)
THE STORY: For whatever reason, top-seeded Michigan State hasn’t had much success in the Big Ten tournament through the years. Despite being highly ranked and having first-round byes on several occasions, the Spartans haven’t won the tourney since 2000. In fact, over the last 10 years, they’re one of only five teams that hasn’t even reached the championship game. No. 8 seed Iowa, meanwhile, is trying to keep its slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Hawkeyes defeated Illinois 64-61 in the opening round, but they’ve struggled against the Spartans. Michigan State has won eight of the last nine in the series, including three straight.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games overall.
* Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.
TIP-INS:
1. The winner will advance to play either Wisconsin or Indiana on Saturday in the semifinals.
2. Tom Izzo is 23-9 against Iowa. However, the Spartans are just 2-2 against the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten tournament.
3. Iowa is 4-3 against Top-25 opponents.
Pick: Iowa +11
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+2)
THE STORY: After going one-and-done in three straight Big Ten tournaments, No. 4 seed Wisconsin will try to end that drought when it takes on the fifth-seeded Hoosiers in the quarterfinals at Indianapolis. Indiana defeated 12th-seeded Penn State 75-58 in its opening-round game, but has struggled against the Badgers the last several years. Wisconsin has won nine straight in the series, including a 57-50 win in late January. The winner will advance to play either top-seeded Michigan State or No. 8 Iowa in the semifinals Saturday.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Hoosiers are 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings.
TIP-INS:
1. A victory would give Indiana its most since posting a 31-4 record in the 1992-93 season.
2. Six of Wisconsin’s nine straight victories in the series have come by at least 10 points.
3. The Badgers have received a first-round bye in 12 straight tournaments, a conference record. They are 14-12 all-time in the event.
Pick: Wisconsin +2
Friday's Top College Basketball Trends
INDIANA is 10-1 ATS after a win by 15 points or more (vs Wisconsin)
MARYLAND is 7-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games (vs N Carolina)
SAINT LOUIS is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite (vs LaSalle)
ALABAMA is 15-37 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite (vs Florida)
BAYLOR is 4-14 ATS off a win against a conference rival (vs Kansas)
KENTUCKY is 30-12 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or mor (vs LSU)
MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite (vs Iowa)
Bubble Update
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Although conference tournament results often do not sway the opinions of the members of the Selection Committee as some would believe, teams at the edge of the bubble can definitely play themselves into the field if 68, or play themselves out of the field of 68, in tourney action.
And having said that, Thursday definitely had more meaningful developments on the bubble than any day in recent weeks.
After the smoke cleared, here's what has transpired in our brackets:
1) Pac-12 a two-bid league? Or a 1-bid league? We've reconsidered the Pac's plight and believe it will probably be limited to two bids at most, especially after regular-season champ Washington bowed in its first outing in the conference tourney vs. Oregon State. Since the league had no marquee wins of consequence in non-conference play, it goes to reason that the Committee is not going to fish too deep in the Pac. Oregon's loss in the Thursday nightcap vs. Colorado likely bumped the Ducks off of the bubble as well, and Cal is not safe by any means if it loses to the Buffs in one of Friday's semifinals. As for Washington, it cannot simply back on its regular-season crown, because that's not what gets awarded with an automatic bid. And this year in the Pac-12, nothing is automatic.
2) Northwestern? Right now we're saying "out" for the Wildcats after their Friday overtime loss vs. Minnesota in the first round of Big Ten Tourney action. An 18-13 overall mark and an 8-11 Big conference record probably aren't going to cut it.
3) South Florida? This will be a test case for the influence of the Big East. The Bulls could have likely sealed their bid with a win over Notre Dame on Thursday but instead bowed in overtime and are going to be riding the bubble all of the way to Selection Sunday.
4) Mississippi State? A bad loss vs. Georgia on Thursday in the SEC puts the Bulldogs in more bubble trouble. We're just not sure enough teams leaped ahead of the Maroon on Sunday to knock MSU out of the field.
5) NC State? The Thursday win over Boston College at the ACC Tourney in Atlanta shouldn't have moved the needle too much for the Wolfpack, but given the losses elsewhere (Northwestern and Oregon in particular), we have put the Pack back into our field of 68. For the moment.
After Thursday's games, here's how our projected seeds (1 thru 16) for the Big Dance set up as of AM, Friday, March 9..
No. 1 seeds...Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina.
No. 2 seeds...Duke, Missouri, Ohio State, Michigan State.
No. 3 seeds...Marquette, Michigan, Indiana, Baylor.
No. 4 seeds...Wisconsin, Florida State, Georgetown, Louisville.
No. 5 seeds...Wichita State, Temple, UNLV, Florida.
No. 6 seeds...Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Creighton, Memphis.
No. 7 seeds...Virginia, Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, Murray State.
No. 8 seeds...New Mexico, Vanderbilt, Purdue, San Diego State.
No. 9 seeds...Iowa State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, UConn.
No. 10 seeds...Alabama, BYU, Long Beach State, Colorado State.
No. 11 seeds...California, Washington, Long Beach State, Virginia Commonwealth.
No. 12 seeds...Miami-Fla., West Virginia, Texas, NC State, Southern Miss.
No. 13 seeds...Akron, Belmont, Harvard, Mississippi State, Drexel.
No. 14 seeds...Loyola-Md., Davidson, Detroit, Nevada.
No. 15 seeds...Lehigh, UT-Arlington, South Dakota State, Montana.
No. 16 seeds...Long Island, UNC-Asheville, Norfolk State, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky.
Last four in...NC State, Southern Miss, Mississippi State, Drexel.
First four out...South Florida, Tennessee, Seton Hall, Arizona.
Next four out...Northwestern, Oregon, Iona, Oral Roberts.
NCAAB Preview
ACC Tournament (Atlanta)
Virginia (+1.5) won 61-60 at NC State Jan 28 in only meeting, as State was just 12-21 from foul line, 2-15 from arc; Wolfpack jumped out to 14-0 lead yesterday, coasted home from there, their third win in a row. Last four Virginia games were all decided by 3 or less points; Cavs won last game in OT at Maryland. Virginia is 1-5 in this event last five years; over last nine years, they're 0-4 in this round, with all four losses by 10+ points. Most think State needs this win to make NCAAs.
Home side won both Florida State-Miami games this season; Seminoles (-6) won 64-59 Feb 11, then lost rematch 78-62 (+1) 15 days later. FSU is weird team; they beat Tar Heels by 33, but are 0-2 vs Ivy League this season. Over last nine years, these teams are combined 2-7 in this round- this is first time FSU got bye in this event. Miami held Ga Tech to just 31.8% from floor yesterday, while forcing 20 turnovers. Larranaga was 12-7 in CAA tourney his last eight years at George Mason.
Atlantic 14 Tournament (Atlantic City)
Xavier is 7-1 last eight years in this round of A-14 tournament, winning five of seven by 9+ points; home side won both Dayton-Xavier rivalry games this year, with Flyers (+3) winning 87-72 at home Jan 21, then in rematch, Flyers (+8) lost 86-83 in OT, extending long losing streak to X in Queen City. Dayton won four of last five games, covered three of last four as an underdog. Xavier split its last six games, is 1-9-1 vs spread in last 11-- they're 4-9-1 as a conference favorite this season.
Big 10 Tournament (Indianapolis)
From 2004-8, Wisconsin was 10-3 in Big Dozen tourney, winning twice, but since winning in '08, they're 0-3 in tourney, scoring 57-54-33 points, losing epic 36-33 snoozer to Penn State LY. Indiana lost glue guy Jones with knee injury yesterday, tough blow for team that got first tourney win in six years. Hoosiers (+8) lost 57-50 at Wisconsin Jan 26, a game they led by hoop at half. Badgers won their last three games by 3-7-11 points. Indiana will have home crowd on its side in Indy.
Michigan won its first tourney game last five years, holding opponents to 47.8 ppg; Wolverines (-6) beat Minnesota 61-56 way back on Jan 1, adespite Hardaway's 2-14 day from floor. Gophers won yesterday for second time in last eight games, even with starting F Sampson (knee) on bench; they've covered last three games as an underdog. Minnesota had three guys play 33+ minutes yesterday; doubtful they will match 11-26 shooting they had in yesterday's OT win over Northwestern.
SEC Tournament (New Orleans)
Florida lost its last three games, needs win here to avoid freefall; they're 4-6 vs spread in last 10 games as favorite. Gators (-3.5) won 61-52 at Alabama Feb 14, as Tide was 12-24 at foul line in game that was tied at half; over last eight years, Gators are 5-2 in this round- they're 7-1 last eight years in first conference tourney game. Bama used only two guys more than 28:00 in yesterday's win, its fifth in last six games- Tide is 2-2 against the spread as an underdog this year.
Big East tournament (New York)
All five Cincinnati starters played 40+ minutes in double OT win over Georgetown yesterday; even in double OT game, its bench played total of 30 minutes. Syracuse (-5.5) won 60-53 at Cincinnati Jan 23, as teams combined to go 8-24 on charity stripe. Cincy shot 34.4% from floor that night, Orange 5-15 on foul line. Orange still haven't lost with Melo in middle; Syracuse is 3-8 vs spread in its last 11 games. Cincinnati won six of last seven games, is 5-2 vs spread as Big East underdog.
Notre Dame won 11 of last 13 games; they had tough OT game last night with USF, with three guys playing 43+ minutes. Irish bench played just 22:00 in OT game. ND (+12) won 67-65 in double OT at Louisville Jan 7, despite shooting 31.7% from floor, 5-26 from arc. Louisville forced 26 Marquette turnovers, winning second game in last five tries despite its 37.7% shooting from floor. Notre Dame covered five of last six games as an underdog. Louisville failed to cover last three games as a favorite.
Big X Tournament (Kansas City)
Baylor ia 26-6, but lost twice to Kansas, 92-74 (+7) in Lawrence Jan 16 (its first loss after 17-0 start), then 68-54 (-2) at home Feb 8. Bears won four of its last five games- they shot 57% in yesterday's win- five guys played 31+ minutes. Kansas is 5-0 in Big X semis last six years, winning by 14-6-6-13-7 points; they've won nine games in row, had fairly easy win yesterday, playing four guys 32+ minutes in game they led by 12 at half. Baylor is 4-3 as an underdog, 2-3 in conference games.
Texas got big win over Iowa State last night that does lot for its resume; Longhorns lost twice to Missouri this year, 84-73 (+9) in Columbia Jan 14, then 67-66 (+1) in Austin Jan 30. Tigers are 3-0 in Sprint Center this year, winning by 29-39-18 points- they jumped out to 30-9 lead in win yesterday, allowing Haith to play only two of his starters more than 27 minutes, important for team that has almost no depth. Over last eight years, Texas is 5-1 in this round- they're 0-5 in tournament finals.
Pac-12 Tournament (Los Angeles)
Home side won both Colorado-Cal games this season; Bears won 57-50 (-13.5) in Berkeley Jan 12, then lost 57-50 (-3) in Boulder Feb 26. Bears are 12-0 in Pac-12 when they allow less than 70 points, 2-5 when they allow more- they covered twice in last six games as a favorite. Buffs are 3-5 in last eight games as underdog; they played four guys 31+ minutes in last night's win over Oregon. Cal played four starters 36+ minutes in win over rival Stanford last night.
Mountain West Tournament (Las Vegas)
Colorado State won five of last six games, is 6-0-1 vs spread last seven; they split pair with San Diego State this season, upsetting Aztecs 77-60 (+2) in first meeting Jan 28, then losing 74-66 (+8) in rematch Feb 25 at Viejas. San Diego State has won its last seven MWC tourney games, and is 4-1 in this round last six years, winning by 3-2-3-2 points- they're 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as favorite. Rams are 6-5-1 vs spread as an underdog this season, 4-3-1 in league play.
Home side won both New Mexico-UNLV games this season; Rebels (-7) won 80-63 on this floor Jan 21, then got waxed 65-45 (+5) in rematch at Pit Feb 18. Over last seven years, UNLV is 3-3 in this round- they have not won this tourney since '08, even though its almost always played on this floor. Lobos lost in semis last two years, by 3-11 points; they're 1-1 as an underdog this season, and were able to play four subs 13+ minutes yesterday, in glorified bye against Air Force.