Friday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
College hoops is the only game in town this weekend with the NBA All-Star break, but sports bettors will have a trio of matchups to focus their attention on this Friday night. First up is an Atlantic 10 clash between the No. 19 Dayton Flyers and the Rhode Island Rams in a 7 p.m. (ET) tip.
The next two conference tilts are in the Pac-12 starting with the No. 23 USC Trojans on the road against the Arizona State Sun Devils at 8 p.m. In a 9 p.m. tip in Tucson, the No. 17 Arizona Wildcats will play host to the UCLA Bruins.
No. 19 Dayton Flyers at Rhode Island Rams
Betting Matchup
Dayton finds itself at the top of the A-10 standings at 10-1 straight-up as part of an overall record of 20-3. The Flyers are riding a SU eight-game winning streak while going 5-2 ATS in their last seven outings. This is not the most prolific scoring team in the nation with 74.5 points per game, but Dayton is holding its opponents to just 64 PPG. The Flyers needed a late-game rally to get past Duquesne 76-74 as heavy 14-point home favorites their last time out after trailing in that game by as many as 12 points late in the second half.
The Rams have won their last two games (SU and ATS) to move to 6-5 (SU and ATS) in conference play. This past Tuesday, they hammered George Mason 81-63 as 12-point home favorites. The total went OVER 133 in that game and it has gone OVER in three of their last five games. This is another tough defensive team with a matching points-allowed average of 64.0. Sophomore guard Jarvis Garrett leads the team in both points (13.3) and assists (4.3) as part of the team’s scoring average of 70.4 PPG.
Betting Trends
The Flyers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and they are 5-2 in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 11 games on the road.
The Rams are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win, but they have covered three of their last four Friday games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games played on Friday.
The home team in this A-10 matchup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings at Rhode Island.
No. 23 USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils
Betting Matchup
USC remains in the thick of the Pac-12 regular season title race on the strength of a SU 6-2 record in their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. They Trojans have been off since Feb. 4 when they knocked-off rival UCLA 80-61 as 5 ½-point home favorites. The total stayed UNDER 161½ points in that game after going OVER in eight of their previous 10 outings. The Trojans are ranked 12th in the nation in scoring with 84 PPG and they are ranked ninth in rebounds with 41.8. This is a deep scoring team with six different players averaging at least 11 points led by sophomore guard Jordan McLaughlin (12.5 PPG).
The Sun Devils got a much needed 67-55 victory last Saturday against Washington State as 3½-point road favorites after losing five of their previous six games. Their record ATS over this seven-game stretch stands at 3-3-1. The total stayed UNDER 153 in that win after going OVER in their previous eight games. Sophomore guard Tra Holder led all scorers in last Saturday’s win with 16 points to basically match his team-high scoring average of 15.5 PPG.
Betting Trends
The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a SU winning record at home and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Friday games. The total has gone OVER in their last five games on the road.
The Sun Devils are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 conference games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in their last seven home games.
Head-to-head in this Pac-12 tilt, the road team has covered in four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last five games. USC drew first blood in this season’s series on Jan. 7with a 75-65 victory as a 5 ½-point home favorite.
UCLA Bruins at No. 17 Arizona Wildcats
Betting Matchup
The Bruins have also been off since that loss to USC and heading into this game they are 4-6 (SU and ATS) in conference play. Going back to a previous 89-75 loss to the Trojans on Jan. 13 as 2½-point home favorites, they are 2-4 (SU and ATS) in their last six games. UCLA has allowed at least 80 points in all four of those losses and on the year it is ranked well down the Division I list in points allowed (77.0). Offensively, the Bruins are averaging 79.3 PPG led by junior guard Bryce Alford’s 16.7 PPG, but he has been held to 12 points or less in three of his last four starts.
Arizona is two games in back of Oregon for first place in the Pac-12 at 7-4 (SU and ATS) following a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in all three games. The Wildcats last loss came against the Ducks on Jan. 28 in a 83-75 setback as 7 ½-point home favorites. They have shown some solid balance at both ends of the court with 81.2 points a game on offense complementing a defense that is holding opponents to 67.6 PPG. Senior forward Ryan Anderson (16.2 PPG) leads a trio of players averaging at least 14 points and he is the team’s top shooter with an impressive shooting percentage of 58.7.
Betting Trends
The Bruins have failed to cover in four of their last five road games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on Friday. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games following a SU loss.
The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and they are 21-7 in their last 28 conference games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games at home.
The road team in this matchup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last five meetings. UCLA has the early edge in the season series with a 87-84 victory on Jan. 7 as a three-point home underdog.
College Basketball Knowledge
Ohio won eight of last ten games with Buffalo, but lost 93-66 here LY. Bobcats won four of last five games overall- they won last two games on road, at Toledo/Ball State,, after losing first three MAC road tilts. Bulls are 4-2 at home in MAC, with two losses by total of six points; they've won four of last five games overall. MAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 19-13 against the spread.
Princeton won six of last seven games with Cornell, but lost 68-60 here LY; Tigers are 3-6 in last nine visits to Ithaca. Princeton is 4-1 in Ivy so far, with three wins by 13+ points; their loss was at Yale by 4. Cornell is 2-4 in Ivy, losing only home games by 11 to Columbia; Big Red is 0-5 vs top 100 teams, with four losses by 18+ points. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.
Yale-Dartmouth split last six meetings; Bulldogs lost brutal 59-58 game here LY that cost them their first Ivy title since 1959- they lost twice in last three visits here. Yale won its last nine games, winning at Brown by 24 in its only Ivy road game. Dartmouth lost its last four games, giving up 77 ppg; three of its five Ivy losses are by 7 or less points. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 against spread.
Columbia is 5-1 in Ivy League, losing by 14 at Yale, beating Cornell by 4 in only home games; Lions are 12-2 in last 14 games after starting season 4-5. Home side won last seven Penn-Columbia games; Quakers lost three in row at Columbia, by 17-19-27 points. Ivy League home favorites of 8+ points are 2-4 vs spread. Penn won couple home games LW after its 0-3 Ivy start- they lost both road games so far, by 23-6 points.
Harvard won Ivy League the last four years but they're 1-5 this season, losing last five games in row- they're worst foul shooting team (56.8%) in country. Crimson has won 12 games in row over Brown, with two of last three in OT. Bruins lost its last seven visits here.Brown is 2-4 in Ivy, losing noly road game at Yale by 9. Ivy League home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-2 against the spread.
Dayton won eight games in row, 13 of last 14 games; they're 4-1 on road in A-14, with only loss at LaSalle. Flyers won last three games against Rhode Island by 7-16-4 points, but they've lost last six visits here, with last win at URI 10 years ago. A-14 home underdogs of less than 5 points are 1-7 vs spread. Rams have injury issues; they're 5-1 at home in A-14, losing to St Joe's by 9- wins are against bottom half of league.
USC beat Arizona State 75-65 at home Jan 7; ASU shot 7-25 on arc and 6-15 on foul line. Trojans are 3-2 in last five series games, lost lost three in row in Tempe, by 4-5-5 points. Pac-12 home underdogs of 3 or less points are 10-2 vs spread. USC is 2-3 on Pac-12 road; they allowed 85+ points in all three league losses. ASU is 3-8 in Pac-12, sweeping Wazzu and beating Oregon State at home- they split their four home games.
UCLA made 11-22 on arc in 87-84 upset over Arizona Jan 7; Bruins are 5-3 in last eight series games, but lost six of last seven visits here, losing last two by 10-6 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 6-1 vs spread. UCLA lost four of last six games overall, allowing 80+ points in all four losses- they're 1-4 on Pac-12 road, with only win at Oregon St. Arizona is 3-0 since its 49-game home winning streak was snapped last week, winning by 17-15-5 points.
Monmouth won six games in row, 16 of last 18; they're 6-2 on MAAC road, winning last three road tilts by 15-6-26 points. Hawks are 1-4 vs Rider in MAAC play, winning 55-54 here LY after losing 77-71 the year before, in OT. Broncs won last four home games, including an upset over Iona- they lost two of last three games overall. MAAC home underdogs of 8 or less points are 10-13 against the spread.
St Peter's lost 63-61 at Niagara Jan 7; Eagles shot 59% inside arc in their 7th win over Peacocks in last nine series games. Eagles won three of last four visits here. St Peter's snapped 5-game skid in last game; they're 3-2 at home in MAAC, losing to Rider/Iona. Niagara lost seven of last eight games, with only win at lowly Marist. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 6-10 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
UCLA, Arizona hook up
By Sportsbook.ag
UCLA BRUINS (13-10) at ARIZONA WILDCATS (19-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -11.5 Total: 153
No. 17 Arizona looks for revenge from a three-point loss at the hands of the reeling Bruins earlier this season in a matchup of Pac-12 rivals.
The heroics from G Bryce Alford (16.7 PPG) with NBA star and UCLA alum Russell Westbrook in the stands were supposed to catapult UCLA towards the postseason; Alford’s game-winning three and strut down the sidelines taking down mighty Arizona. Unfortunately, this would be the high point for the Bruins, as UCLA has now lost four of their last six games, including getting swept by cross-town rival, USC, for the first time since 2010.
Arizona takes their 12-1 SU (8-5 ATS) home record into this contest with no mercy, and most likely a vivid memory of coach Steve Alford’s son sending their team back home in despair on Jan. 8th. Arizona boasts the return of freshman G Allonzo Trier (14.3 PPG) who missed seven games with a broken hand before returning Saturday for seven points in 16 minutes in the win over Washington.
In addition to that Saturday win, Arizona defeated Washington State last Wednesday 79-64 (Arizona -10), as the Wildcats have covered and won their last three contests dating back to a home loss to Pac-12 leading Oregon on Jan. 28th. UCLA is 1-4 SU (1-4 ATS) on the road in Pac-12 play.
Historically, Arizona hasn’t covered while hosting UCLA in the past four contests (March, ’12) and is 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) over the past 10 games at McKale Center dating back to 2009. In total, UCLA is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times these two teams have met.
UCLA still owns a very dangerous offense at 79.3 PPG (38th NCAA), but they came to a screeching halt on Thursday in the Galen Center, only putting up 61 points in the loss to USC. The Bruins shot 34.8% FG (26.9% 3PT) and the backcourt duo of Alford and Isaac Hamilton (16.3 PPG) combined to go 6-25 from the field. Alford will have had 8 days to prepare his squad for this upcoming game, but will it be enough for the struggling Bruins? UCLA is 2-3 SU (2-3 ATS) with 4+ days off this season.
The elder Alford has tried to jumpstart his team by making lineup changes to his short rotation, bringing burly F Tony Parker (13.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG) off the bench in favor of lanky sophomore F Jonah Bolden (4 PPG). Bolden is a long-armed defender and shows signs of a promising offensive game in the future, but he’s very raw. Meanwhile, Parker hasn’t truly responded to coming off the bench in order to avoid early foul trouble. While Parker’s scoring has gotten more consistent, his stellar work on the boards has taken a hit (5.8 RPG over his last four games).
UCLA’s defense will need to tighten up against Arizona’s many solid offensive options, as the Bruins’ 77 PPG allowed is 278th in the country. UCLA plays at a fast pace (74.8 poss/game, 48th NCAA) but this almost benefits their opponents more than it does themselves, as UCLA’s opponents get more shots off per game than the Bruins themselves do (64.1 Opp FGA/Game, 337th NCAA). How Parker, Bolden, and 7-foot C Thomas Welsh (12 PPG, 8.8 RPG) handle Ryan Anderson, Arizona’s standout senior forward who’s on fire right now, will be a big key to the Bruins keeping it close in Tuscon.
The aforementioned Anderson (16.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG) is playing as well as any frontcourt player in the nation right now for coach Sean Miller’s Wildcats. After a triple-overtime loss to USC on Jan 9th, where Anderson inexplicably only scored 5 points and grabbed 8 rebounds, Anderson is averaging 19.5 PPG, 10.6 RPG, on 70% FG in his last eight games. Furthermore, Anderson has averages of 22 PPG and 12.3 RPG in his past four games, bolstered by 53 points and 27 rebounds last week over Washington State and Washington.
Beside Anderson, G Gabe York (14.7 PPG, 43% 3PT) has also stepped up in the absence of Trier, averaging 18 PPG and burying 3 threes per game over his last six contests. Overall, Arizona’s 81.8 PPG (22nd NCAA), 49.1% FG (9th NCAA), and 1.17 points per possession (13th NCAA) are all elite, while their +11.4 rebounding margin (4th NCAA) stabilizes a defense that otherwise isn’t as dominant as Miller’s Arizona teams of the past.
Arizona has only allowed two Pac-12 opponents to shoot below 40% FG in conference play and, even in a win, allowed Washington to shoot 46% 3PT on Saturday. It will be interesting to see if Trier, who played 16 minutes against the Huskies on Saturday, gets a starting nod after a week’s worth of rest. York, who took 21 shots in the win over Washington Saturday, is more beneficial to the Wildcats moving without the ball and not having to create his own shot – which is where the additional firepower of having Trier start would make Arizona even more dangerous.