College Basketball Knowledge
Afternoon Games
Dayton (+6.5) upset Syracuse 55-53 in second round 3-11 game couple years ago in Buffalo; Orange were 0-10 on arc that day. Syracuse won five of last six first-round games, but lost five of its last six games overall, losing last three, all by 5 or less points- they made 20-45 on arc in neutral court wins vs UConn, Texas A&M in November- they're shooting 36.1% on arc, are thin (#350 subs' minutes). Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. ACC teams are 14-2 SU in first round last three years; A-14 teams are 3-6, with Dayton two of three wins. Dayton split its last eight games, after a 21-3 start.
Lot of pressure on Villanova this weekend; last three times they were a #1 or 2 seed, they didn't get past first weekend; other two times, they were 9-seed and lost in first round. Wildcats won five of last six games overall, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East tourney final. NC-Asheville tied for 3rd in Big South, but is 15-seed, first time since Winthrop in '08 that Big South team is higher than a 16. Big South teams are 2-4 vs spread since '08 n first round, after covering five in row before that. NC-Asheville won at Georgetown, lost by 28 at Texas A&M in its two top 100 games. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 vs spread in this round.
VCU lost first round games in OT last two years; this is Wade's first NCAA- he went 27-7 in SoCon at Chattanooga, but never got this far. Oregon State is in NCAAs for first time since 1990, when Gary Payton was the Beavers' star; now his son is OSU's star. Tinkle was 0-3 in NCAAs at Montana. OSU is 4-8 vs top 50 teams. Beavers split last eight games overall; freshman wing Tinkle (foot) is out. VCU is 7-5 in last 12 games after a 17-5 start; Rams Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. VCU is 1-6 vs top 60 teams this season.
Hawai'i is 11-2 in last 13 games; they're 10-2 on mainland after playing once on mainland before Jan 14. Rainbows lost to Oklahoma by 3, Texas Tech 8 in its only two top 70 games this year- best team they beat was Northern Iowa by 16 on Dec 22. Over last decade, Big West teams are 0-10 in non-play-in games (3-7 vs spread). Cal Bears split last four games, losing to Utah in OT in Pac-12 tourney; they've got one senior in talented, 8-man rotation. Pac-12 teams are 15-1 vs Big West this year (10-6 vs spread). Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Hawai'i is #48 in country in experience. PG Wallace is out for Cal-- he broke his hand in practice Wednesday.
Middle Tennessee is in NCAAs for first time since losing play-in game in '11; Blue Raiders won Alaskan Shootout, are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 6-4 to VCU, South Dakota State. MTSU is 4th-worst (60.7%) foul shooting team in country. Michigan State got to Sweet 16 last four years, covering first round game all four times; Spartans started season with 82-55 win over FAU of C-USA- they're making 38.9% of 3's, #19 in country. Big 14 teams are 5-1 vs C-USA this year, 3-2 vs spread as faves. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 against the spread in this round.
Iowa lost six of its last eight games after 19-4 start; seven of those eight tilts were decided by 8 or less points. Hawkeyes lost to Dayton of A-14 on neutral floor in November. Iowa is experienced, starting junior and four seniors- they made 38.2% on arc (#32), just 33.1% in last six games. Temple is in NCAAs for first time in three years; Owls are 2-4 in last six first round games. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games; since 2010, Big 14 teams are 28-10 in this round- they're 3-4 vs A-14 teams, 2-2 vs spread when favored. AAC teams are 4-2 in this round the last two tournaments.
Cal-Bakersfield is in D-I March Madness for first time; they won three D-II national titles. Coach Barnes was last in tournament with Ole Miss in 2002, losing to UCLA by 22 in first round. Roadrunners lost by 16-35 vs top 100 teams (Arizona State and St Mary's); they've got #10 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma lost in first round two of last three years (0-3 vs spreas); last time they covered in first round was 2009. Sooners are just 6-5 in last 11 games after 19-2 start; Big X is such a hard league- they are 8-0 vs teams outside top 90. WAC teams are 3-10 vs spread in this round, 0-5 the last five years. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread.
Maryland is 3-5 in last eight games after starting season 22-3; TV pundits are openly questioning team chemistry. Maryland took 93 3's last four games, more than when they were playing well. South Dakota State won six in row, 12 of last 14 games; they won 84-70 at Big 14's Minnesota Dec 8. Since '03, Terps are 6-0 in first round games; they beat Valpo by 3 LY, in first NCAA with Turgeon as coach. Jackrabbits will start three seniors, always a help. Since '03, Summit League teams are 1-12 in NCAAs, 2-9-2 vs spread; North Dakota State got the only win, two years ago in 5-12 game. Big 14 teams are only 3-3 vs Summit League this year; 2-3 against spread as a favorite.
Night Games
Pitt coach Dixon is rumored to be leaving Pitt for either TCU or UNLV; Panthers are 4-7 in last 11 games overall, 7-1 in last 8 first round games. Wisconsin coach Gard got interim label lifted, is now the guy; Badgers are 8-1 in last nine first round games- they lost last two games after 11-1 run, slight red flag. Big 14 teams are 10-8 vs ACC teams this year; Pitt lost 70-56 at home to Purdue Dec 1, its only loss in 13 non-conference games; Wisconsin won in OT at Syracuse in its ACC game. Badgers don't defend 3-ball well, but Pitt is 16-64 on arc in last four games. The last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games.
SF Austin coach Underwood worked for Bob Huggins at Kansas State; Lumberjacks are 88-13 in Underwood era, 59-1 in Southland play. SFA upset VCU in '14 first round, lost to Utah by 7 LY- they force turnovers 25.9% of time. West Virginia 25.5%- they lead the country in that stat. Mountaineers won six of last seven games, can struggle on offense, but they've played schedule #5, SFA #317. 'jacks are #46 experience team, WV #170. Southland teams are 2-10 in first round games, 5-6-1 vs spread, 1-3 in last four non-play-in games. SFA opened season with 97-55 loss at Baylor; they got beat by 7 at Arizona State on other top 100 game.
Horizon teams are 0-4 in NCAA games since Butler bolted for greener pa$ture$ (1-3 vs spread). Green Bay coach Darner won D-II national title LY at Florida Southern; they've won eight of their last nine games, winning four days in row to win Horizon title. Texas A&M won eight of last nine games, losing in OT to Kentucky at SEC tourney; Aggies forced turnovers 20.7% of time in SEC games. Green Bay plays #6 tempo, has protected ball well (#27)- their offensive posessions are shortest in the country. SEC teams won both their games with Horizon teams this year, but didn't cover either one. Underdogs are 8-4 against the spread in 3-14 games last three years.
Oregon won its last eight games, 14 of last 16 to grab its #1 seed; Ducks won first round games last three years by 13-19-6 points. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games- the #1 seed in West is 10-4 vs spread last 14 years, 0-3 the last three. Holy Cross won its last five games after being 10-19 to that point; Crusaders run Princeton offense- they've made 37.8% on arc last five games, are just 32.8% for season. HC lost by 18-33 points in its two top 10 games this year (URI/Kansas). Patriot League clubs are 0-3 in this round last three years, losing by 12-40-41 points.
Xavier is in NCAAs for 10th time in 11 years; they're 6-2 in last 8 first round games- this is 1st time they've been higher than 6-seed under Mack. Xavier is 12-0 out of conference. Weber State is in NCAAs for just second time in last nine years; they lost 68-59 to Arizona in '14. Big Sky teams are 0-9 in NCAA last nine years (2-7 vs spread). Wildcats are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, splitting pair with South Dakota State. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread. Last two years, double digit first round favorites are 9-16 vs spread.
Notre Dame is in NCAAs for 6th time in seven years; they're 2-3 last five first round games, 3-4 in last seven games overall. Irish don't have much depth- PG Jackson played 33:00+ in 11 of last 12 games, 40:00+ in six of 12. Michigan used three starters 35:00+ in win over Tulsa Wednesday, a brickfest where teams were combined 9-40 on arc. Wolverines are 5-11 vs top 40 teams, beating Indiana/Notre Dame in last week, with loss to Purdue in between. Last four years, favorites are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. ACC teams are 8-10 vs Big 14 teams this season, 5-5-1 vs spread when favored.
Northern Iowa won 12 of last 13 games, beat North Carolina very early in season, but somehow went 5-10 in skid during middle of year- they beat Iowa State of Big X 81-79 on neutral floor. Panthers won game in tourney LY after missing four years in row before that; UNI is #35 team in experience; they protect ball well, shoot 3's well. Texas is 4-5 in last nine games; they played hardest schedule in country. Longhorns might get big man Ridley back here; they play #301 pace, un-Smart-like, after he became famous with pressing style at VCU. Last four years, faves are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. Big X.MVC slit four games this season with underdog covering all four games.
Cincinnati split last six games, losing last game in 4OTs to UConn is there a hangover from that? St Joe's scored 85 ppg in winning A-14 title; they're in NCAAs for just second time in eight years- they lost in OT to UConn in first round in 2014. Hawks protect the ball well, aren't deep, don't foul lot (#6 in not fouling). Cincinnati is 3-2 in first round games last five years; last four were decided by 6 or less points. Winner of this game has legit shot to knock off #1 Oregon Sunday. AAC/A-14 split eight games this season; Cincy beat GW/VCU, St Joe's beat Temple in OT. Since '03, dogs are 31-21 against the spread in 8-9 first round games.
NIT
Virginia Tech needed OT to beat Princeton at home Wednesday; Hokies outscored Tigers 26-12 on foul line, but blew 11-point second half lead in game where Princeton was 11-39 on arc. I'll guarantee you this: BYU ain't going 11-39 on arc in Provo. Cougars made 13-30 in racing out to 51-30 halftime lead over UAB Wednesday- three starters played 35:00+. Tech used four starters 32:00+ in its win.
Armadillosports.com
Friday - Session 1
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
No. 10 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 7 Dayton Flyers
Opening Odds: Syracuse -1, 131
Betting Matchup
Syracuse’s record with Jim Boeheim coaching the team proved to be good enough to earn a spot in the 68-team field, but the Orange still comes into this game with just one straight-up win in their last six games while going 3-3 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight outings. Senior forward Michael Gbinije led the team in both points (17.8) and assists (4.4) and he has been able to raise that scoring average to 24 points a game over his last four starts.
The Flyers run to an Atlantic 10 Tournament title was cut short in a stunning 82-79 loss to St. Joe’s as 2½-point favorites. They are now a costly 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 contests and the total has gone OVER in eight of their last 11 games. In that A-10 semifinals’ loss, senior forward Dyshawn Pierre put-up 22 points while going 8-15 from the field. Dayton is averaging 73 points a game while holding opponents to 65.8 points on defense.
Betting Trends
The Orange are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games against a team from the A-10 and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games.
The Flyers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five ACC matchups and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games in this tournament.
These two met in the 2014 NCAA Tournament with Dayton squeezing-out a 55-53 win as an 8½-point underdog. The total stayed UNDER 131 points in that game.
No. 15 UNC Asheville Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Opening Odds: Villanova -16, 141½
Betting Matchup
The Bulldogs made their way back into the Big Dance with a run to the Big South Tournament Championship after finishing third in the regular season at 12-6 SU. They covered ATS in all three tournament games and the total stayed UNDER in two of the contests. Freshman guard Dylan Smith has led the team in scoring this season with 13.5 PPG.
Villanova’s bid to match its regular season Big East title in its conference tournament came up just short in a 69-67 loss to Seton Hall as a six-point favorite in the title game. It was only the second SU loss in the Wildcats last 14 games, but they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 outings. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine games. Junior guard Josh Hart is averaging a team-high 15.5 PPG and he has exceeded that average in four of his last five starts.
Betting Trends
The Bulldogs have gone 3-1-1 ATS in five previous NCAA Tournament games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games at a neutral site.
The Wildcats have failed to cover in five of their last seven games in this tournament and the total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 15 neutral-site games.
No. 10 VCU Rams vs. No. 7 Oregon State Beavers
Opening Odds: VCU -4, 141
Betting Matchup
VCU’s run at the A-10 Tournament title also came up short in its 87-74 loss to St. Joe’s in the title game. The Rams closed as four-point favorites and it was the first time they failed to cover in their last four games. Senior guard Melvin Johnson tweaked his ankle, but he is listed as probable for Friday. He led VCU in scoring this season with 17.4 PPG and the team as a whole is averaging 77.3 points.
The Beavers finished seventh in the Pac-12 with a SU record of 9-9 and their run in the conference tournament ended with a 76-68 loss to California in a game that ended as a PUSH. The total went OVER 137½-point line in that game and it has gone OVER in seven of their last eight outings. Senior guard Gary Payton II has led the way with 15.9 PPG as part of team scoring average of 72.1 points. He led the team in scoring in the loss to Cal with 20 points.
Betting Trends
The Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five nonconference games.
The Beavers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in their last seven games at a neutral site.
No. 13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. No. 4 California Golden Bears
Opening Odds: California -6½, 141½
Betting Matchup
Hawaii’s three-game run to the Big West Tournament Championship ended with a tight 64-60 victory against Long Beach State as a 4½-point favorite. The Warriors are now 11-2 SU in their last 13 games, but a costly 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. They won the regular season title as well with a SU 13-3 run through conference play behind a scoring average of 77.6 PPG complementing a points-allowed average of 66.5.
The Golden Bear’s Pac-12 Tournament run ended after the win against Oregon State with an 82-78 loss to Utah as 2½-point underdogs. Cal remains one of the hottest teams in the conference coming into this tournament with a SU 9-2 record in its last 11 games while going 8-2-1 ATS. This is another well-balanced lineup with 75.1 PPG while holding teams to 67 points at the other end of the court.
Betting Trends
The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Pac-12 and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six neutral-site games.
The Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Big West and the total has stayed UNDER in their last five nonconference games.
These two last met in 2006 with California winning 72-56 as a three-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 140½-point line.
Friday - Session 2
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
#15 Middle Tennessee State vs. #2 Michigan State (-18, 143½)
Many people looked at Michigan State (29-5 SU, 22-11 ATS) as a potential top seed after topping Purdue to capture the Big 10 tournament championship. However, the Spartans were relegated to a second seed in the Midwest in spite of finishing the season with 13 wins in their final 14 games, while covering 12 times in this span. Tom Izzo’s team cashed in seven of their last eight opportunities as a double-digit favorite, as the ‘over’ hit six times in this stretch, meaning the Spartans are scoring a bunch of points in these blowouts.
Middle Tennessee State (24-9 SU, 17-15 ATS) pulled off several shockers en route to the Conference USA championship, which included knocking off Old Dominion in the title game, 55-53. The Blue Raiders are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2013, when they lost in the First Four round to St. Mary’s. MTSU put together a 6-5 ATS record in the underdog role, but lost in both games against tournament teams this season, falling to VCU and South Dakota State.
The Spartans haven’t won a championship since 2000, but reached the second weekend in each of the past four postseasons, including a Final Four trip in 2015. Michigan State owns a 5-3-1 ATS record as a tournament favorite since 2013, while being listed at its biggest chalk number in the Big Dance since cashing as 19-point favorites in the opening round against LIU-Brooklyn in 2012.
#10 Temple vs. #7 Iowa (-7, 139½)
The Hawkeyes (21-10 SU, 14-14 ATS) stormed out of the gate with an 11-2 record in Big 10 play, including four victories over Michigan State and Purdue. However, Iowa dropped four of its final five regular season games, followed up by a shocking 68-66 loss to Illinois as 10 ½-point favorites in the Big 10 tournament. For the exception of defeats to Illinois and Penn State, the Hawkeyes lost to quality opponents this season, including setbacks to Indiana (twice), Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa State, and Notre Dame.
Temple (21-11 SU, 17-13 ATS) rallied to win the American Athletic Conference regular season title by winning nine of its final 10 conference games. The Owls flamed out in the conference tournament by losing in the second round to UConn, 77-62 after sweeping the Huskies in the regular season. Fran Dunphy’s team compiled a solid 9-5 ATS record in the underdog role, which included covers in losses to Butler and Utah. Temple cashed the ‘under’ in five consecutive games prior to the AAC tournament, but hit the ‘over’ on low totals (127½) in each of the conference tournament contests.
Iowa has failed to cover its last six games in the favorite role, while losing five of those contests outright. The Hawkeyes are 1-2 SU/ATS under Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament, with the only victory coming against Davidson in the opening round last season by 31 points. Temple is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2013, as the Owls made it to the round of 32 before getting eliminated by Indiana, but they covered both games as an underdog.
#15 CS-Bakersfield vs. #2 Oklahoma (-14, 140)
For most of January, Oklahoma (25-7 SU, 12-18 ATS) sat atop the AP Top 25, but consecutive losses to Kansas and Texas Tech in mid-February knocked the Sooners out of the number one position. The Sooners settled for a second seed in the West region after losing to West Virginia by two points in the Big 12 tournament semifinals as Buddy Hield’s desperation three-pointer came after the buzzer. OU struggled to cover numbers throughout Big 12 play by going 6-15 ATS the last 21 games, which included a non-cover in a two-point victory at LSU in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.
What do you know about Cal-State Bakersfield? The Roadrunners (24-8 SU, 3-0 ATS) wrapped up their first WAC championship by beating New Mexico State in the conference tournament, 57-54 to cap off their sixth consecutive victory. CSUB joined Division I in 2007 as it made its first ever NCAA tournament, as its only game against a current tournament squad came in a mid-December loss at Fresno State by eight. The Roadrunners showcase five players that average double-figures in scoring, led by center Aly Ahmed, who puts up 12.9 points per game.
Oklahoma is riding a 10-game streak to the ‘under,’ as Lon Kruger’s team has busted the 75-point mark just twice in this stretch. In spite of the Sooners’ struggles against the number over the last two months, OU put together a 6-4 ATS record this season as a double-digit favorite. However, Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS in its past eight games as a favorite away from Norman, while not cashing as a 13-point favorite in their tournament opener last March, 69-60.
#12 South Dakota State vs. #5 Maryland (-10, 143)
Maryland (25-8 SU, 15-16-1 ATS) put together an uneven finish to an otherwise solid season by losing five of its final eight contests, capped off by a 64-61 defeat to Michigan State in the Big 10 tournament semifinals. The Terrapins dropped five of their last six games away from College Park, while posting a 2-4 ATS record as a favorite of eight points or more dating back to mid-January. Maryland is making its second appearance in the Big Dance in Mark Turgeon’s five-year coaching tenure, as the Terps were tripped up by West Virginia in the round of 32 last March.
South Dakota State (26-7 SU, 15-14 ATS) is back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013 after grabbing the Summit League automatic bid. The Jackrabbits pulled away from rival North Dakota State in the conference championship game, 67-59, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the fifth consecutive contest. South Dakota State is listed as an underdog for the first time since losing at Weber State, 99-95 before Christmas, while winning its only game against a Big 10 opponent by beating Minnesota in December, 84-70 as three-point underdogs.
Friday - Session 3
VegasInsider.com
#7 Wisconsin (-1.5, 133) vs #10 Pittsburgh
Things certainly can change a lot in a single year. Last March, Bo Ryan owned the sidelines while Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Traevon Jackson and Sam Gasser shined on a national stage, leading the Badgers to a memorable run to the National Championship, where they fell short against Duke. None remain with the program, which is now in former assistant Greg Gard’s hands. He’s done a great job taking over for Ryan, who retired midseason, building around Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig and Vitto Brown. While it once looked like Wisconsin was NIT-bound, a stretch of 11 wins in 12 games that included upsets of Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland and Iowa rescued the season. The Badgers come in on a two-game losing streak, including being upset themselves in the Big Ten Tournament after a sloppy effort against Nebraska.
The Panthers nearly lost in their first conference tournament game too, but pulled out a vital win over Syracuse that helped them rest easier on Selection Sunday. North Carolina blew Pittsburgh out 88-71 in the quarterfinals, which means it has lost three of the last four games, extending a run that has seen it drop seven of 11 outright. This the team’s return to the NCAAs after falling short last year and will mark their 11th appearance in 13 season under Jamie Dixon, who is an impressive 9-1 in his first contest. He’s got a veteran team whose most productive players are junior forwards Michael Young and Jamel Artis. Senior point guard James Robinson has struggled with his shot all season but remains a trusted floor general.
Offense has been an issue for Pittsburgh, who have run off a pair of games that have gone 'over' the posted total, ending a stretch where the 'under' prevailed 11 of 13 times. The 'under' is 8-1 in Wisconsin's last nine.
#3 West Virginia (-8, 145.5) vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin
The Mountaineers utilize one of the most effective pressing styles seen in the college game in years, a frenetic, physical tornado style that is relentless in that it takes the “40 Minutes of Hell” Arkansas approach and looks to make you take it literally. Defensively, they come at you in waves, ranking second in the country in turnovers forced per game. Who’s first? That would be the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin, who really dig in and defend and protect the 3-point line extremely well. Obviously, their numbers have been built against lesser competition than West Virginia faced in the Big 12, as SFA dominated the Southland and actually faltered in all five games they played against teams in larger conferences. Baylor, Northern Iowa, Arizona State, Tulane and UAB all defeated the ‘Jacks, who are making their third consecutive NCAA appearance. Brad Underwood beat VCU in his first season, but lost to Utah last season. He’s an incredible 88-13 in his three-year tenure at Stephen F. Austin, winning Southland Coach of the Year honors each time. He’s probably on the way to a major conference near you, especially if he pulls off another upset.
Counterpart Bob Huggins employed Underwood as an assistant at K-State and has served as a big influence on Underwood. Huggins finally reached the NCAAs for the first time as a Big 12 member last year, although he’d qualified his alma mater each of the five years they were in the Big East upon taking over, reaching the Final Four in 2010. Last year’s group made the Sweet 16, the seventh time in his career that Huggins has led a team that far. West Virginia had won six straight prior to losing in its first-ever Big 12 Championship game, falling 81-71 against Kansas. Stephen F. Austin has won a Division I-best 20 consecutive games, including the last nine by 20-plus points. Only four of the Lumberjacks’ games have been on the board prior to this one. SFA is 2-2 ATS. The over is 3-1.
Forward Thomas Walkup is the two-time Southland Player of the Year and led the ‘Jacks in points, rebounds, assists and steals. He’s scored 30 or more five times this season. He’s averaged 15.3 points and 10 rebounds in three NCAA Tournament games. Point guard Trey Pinckney has played a large role on all three NCAA teams as distributor and dogged defender. He’s only taken more than two shots per game once in the last 12 games. Reserve Jaysean Paige is West Virginia’s top scorer, averaging 13.9 points in just 22.4 minutes off the bench. Due to their style of sharing the ball and turning defense into offense, six Mountaineers average at least 8.9 points per game. They’re 6-1 ATS over the last seven.
#3 Texas A&M (-13.5, 155) vs. #14 Green Bay
Last time we saw the Aggies, they were falling short in OT in the SEC Championship game, having come excruciatingly close to winning their first title in their new conference, which would’ve been some accomplishment given how strongly Big Blue Nation had descended upon Nashville. It would’ve been a nice topper for A&M in a season where it has already claimed a share of a regular-season title and enters the NCAAs only one win shy of matching the winningest season in program history. The OT loss snapped an eight-game winning streak where the Ags went 6-1-1 ATS despite being favored seven of eight times. An experienced lineup featuring four seniors has paid dividends, but the team is making their first Big Dance appearance since 2011, so none of these guys have played on this stage. A&M went on an ‘under’ run in 10 of 11 games from Jan. 12-Feb. 13, but its offense has picked up nicely over the last month. Currently, the ‘over’ has prevailed in three of four of its games.
That’s fortunate, since this Green Bay team will inevitably score some points. Although A&M held Ben Simmons-led LSU to 38 points in the SEC semis, they’re going to be tested by a Green Bay team that employs the fifth-fastest pace in the country, quickest in this tournament. They scored 99 to defeat top-seeded Valparaiso in the Horizon League semis, then hung nearly 80 on methodical, defensive-minded Wright State. The Phoenix has won eight of nine games and is 6-0-3 ATS in that same span. Green Bay is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1996, riding first-year head coach Linc Darner, who brought his frenetic tempo from D-II Florida Southern. Senior guard Carrington Love is averaging team-highs with 17.7 points, 3.5 assists and 2.6 steals. The top non-conference win for the Phoenix was a 66-63 home win over Akron. They lost at Stanford, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin.
#1 Oregon (-23, 133.5) vs. #16 Holy Cross
The Ducks have been called statistically the worst No. 1 seed in history by formulas used throughout the sport, but you can’t argue with their success. Dana Altman put himself in the running for National Coach of the Year by winning 14 of his last 16 games with a team no one had being as dominant as they managed to be. Oregon won the Pac-12 outright, completed a double by beating Washington, Arizona and Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament and opened many eyes that hadn’t seem much throughout the season. Forwards Dillon Brooks, Elgin Cook and Chris Boucher make up one of the top frontcourts in the country. The Ducks have covered in five of the last six games.
The Crusaders are a perfect 6-0, both straight up and against the spread, in games that have been on the board this season. All have been against teams in either their league, the Patriot, or the SWAC, as they come a First Four win over Southern U., hanging on 59-55. Holy Cross started fast in that contest, fell behind, and then got a crucial 3-pointer from reserve guard Robert Champion, one of the heroes of the school's Patriot League Tourney run and leads the team in 3-pointers made. Undersized center Malachi Alexander, the leading scorer and rebounder, is shooting nearly 44 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross entered postseason play 10-19 and haven't lost since, winning all of their conference tournament games in opposing buildings before Tuesday's win at a neutral site in Dayton. Head coach Bill Carmody will look to take the Ducks out of their element utilizing a 1-3-1 zone and a precision-based offense that isn't easy to prepare for.
Friday - Session 4
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Notre Dame vs. Michigan
The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Notre Dame (21-11 straight up, 14-15 against the spread) as a three-point favorite early Thursday morning. The line moved to 2.5 within an hour. The total opened at 143. As of Thursday afternoon, the Wolverines were +125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).
This is a 6/11 matchup in the East Region that'll be contested at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn, N.Y. This game will be on CBS at around 9:40 p.m. Eastern.
Michigan (23-12 SU, 17-16 ATS) advanced to the Round of 64 by virtue of Wednesday's 67-62 win over Tulsa as a two-point 'chalk' in Dayton. The 129 combined points stayed 'under' the 142.5-point total. Zak Irvin and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman scored 16 points apiece to lead the way. Duncan Robinson finished with 13 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots.
Michigan has been an underdog 12 times, limping to a 4-8 spread record with three outright victories.
Michigan has played eight games on a neutral court this year, posting a 6-2 SU record and a 4-4 ATS mark.
Michigan has an excellent backcourt featuring Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton Jr. Irvin is averaging 11.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Walton (11.7 PPG) is averaging team-highs in rebounds (5.5 RPG), assists (4.5 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG). Robinson (11.2 PPG) is a pure shooter, draining 44.7 percent of his launches from 3-point range and 88.6 percent of his free-throw attempts.
John Beilein owns the seventh-best career winning percentage among head coaches in the NCAA Tournament. He has a 17-9 record (65.4%).
Mike Brey's squad beat Duke 84-79 in overtime as a two-point underdog at the ACC Tournament quarterfinals last Thursday. Zach Auguste was the catalyst with 19 points and 22 rebounds. On Friday, however, the Fighting Irish were run out of the Verizon Center in Washington D.C., where North Carolina cruised to a 78-47 win as a seven-point favorite in the semifinals. Bonzie Colson scored a team-best 15 points in the losing effort.
Notre Dame has been a single-digit favorite 14 times this season, going 7-6-1 ATS.
Notre Dame has played 11 games against teams in the NCAA field, struggling to a 4-7 record both SU and ATS.
Auguste is one of the nation's best post players, averaging 14.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. He's hitting 54.9 percent of his shots from the field and has 32 blocked shots. Junior point guard Demetrius Jackson is averaging team-highs in scoring (15.5 PPG), assists (4.8 APG) and steals (1.2 SPG).
Brey owns a 9-12 (42.9%) career record in the NCAA Tournament.
Totals have been an overall wash (15-15) for the Irish, but it has seen the 'under' hit in seven of its last 10 outings.
The 'over' is 19-13-1 overall for the Wolverines, but they have seen the 'under' cash in three straight games and five of their last six.
Northern Iowa vs. Texas
This is another 6/11 showdown in the West Region with the winner advancing to face the Wisconsin-Green Bay-Texas A&M winner in Oklahoma City on Sunday. TBS will have the telecast at around 9:50 p.m. Eastern.
The Westgate opened Texas (20-12 SU, 16-15 ATS) as a 4.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 124. The tally has been adjusted to 125, but the Longhorns remain 4.5-point favorites. The Panthers are +175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175).
Texas first-year head coach Shaka Smart owns a 7-5 career record (58.3%) in the NCAA Tournament with one Final Four appearance while he was at VCU.
Texas has lost five of its last nine games, including a 75-61 setback against Baylor as a 2.5-point underdog at the Big 12 Tournament. Connor Lammert had a team-best 15 points in the losing effort. Kerwin Roach Jr. had 13 points and six rebounds, while Shaquille Cleare was also in double figures with 12 points.
Texas has been a single-digit favorite 12 times, posting a 5-7 spread record.
Texas has played 18 games against teams in the NCAA field, going 8-10 SU and 10-8 ATS. The Longhorns own six victories over RPI Top-25 foes, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor and West Va. (twice).
Texas is led by Isaiah Taylor, who averages 14.8 points and 4.9 assists per game. The Longhorns are hoping to get 15-20 minutes out of center Cameron Ridley, who had missed 20 straight games with a foot injury before returning to the court at the Big 12 Tournament. Ridley only played two minutes against Baylor, hitting a pair of free throws and missing his only shot from the field. Ridley averages 11.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 blocked shots per game.
No. Iowa (22-12 SU, 19-13-1 ATS) has been absolutely on fire since Jan. 27, compiling a 12-1 SU record and an 11-1-1 ATS mark. The Panthers have won six in a row while going 5-0-1 ATS. They won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament with wins over So. Illinois (66-60), Wichita State (57-52 in OT) and Evansville (56-54).
Wes Washpun was the catalyst in the MVC finals win over Evansville, producing 18 points, five rebounds, three assists and two steals. Klint Carlson knocked down 8-of-12 shots in a 17-point effort, while Jeremy Morgan was also in double figures with 14 points.
No. Iowa has been an underdog 11 times, producing a 5-6 record both SU and ATS. The Panthers have a 2-0 record against RPI Top-25 foes, a 4-1 mark versus the Top 50 and an 8-3 ledger against the Top 100. They won outright in five of seven games against teams in the NCAA field, including scalps of North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State (twice).
Washpun averages team-highs in scoring (14.3 PPG) and assists (5.2 APG), while Morgan (10.4 PPG) paces NIU in rebounding (5.1 RPG), field-goal percentage (47.7%), steals (1.9 SPG) and blocked shots (0.9 BPG).
The 'under' is 20-13 overall for No. Iowa, cashing in five straight games and seven of their last eight.
The 'under' is 17-13-1 overall for the Longhorns, going 3-0-1 in their last four outings.
Weber State vs. Xavier
This is a 2/15 East Region matchup that'll be played in St. Louis, MO. TNT will have the telecast at about 9:20 p.m. Eastern. The winner will face the survivor of Pitt vs. Wisconsin on Sunday.
The Westgate opened Xavier (27-5 SU, 19-13 ATS) as a 13-point favorite with a total of 147.5. The total hasn't moved, while the number for the side briefly went to 13.5 before coming back to 13. Gamblers can take the Wildcats to win outright for a +750 return (risk $100 to win $750).
Chris Mack's program is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance in the last 11 seasons. Xavier has been to the Sweet 16 in three of the last six years. The Musketeers' No. 2 seed is their highest in school history.
Xavier lost an 87-83 decision to Seton Hall as a five-point favorite in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament last Friday. Edmond Sumner had 21 points, nine rebounds, two steals and four assists compared to only one turnover in the losing effort. James Farr finished with 18 points, 10 boards and three steals.
Xavier has a balance offensive attack with six players averaging 9.4 PPG or better. Trevon Bluiett averages a 15.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Sumner averages 11.3 points, 3.5 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.2 steals per contest. Myles Davis (11.1 PPG) dishes out a team-high 4.2 APG and hits 85.1 percent of his free throws.
Xavier has been a double-digit favorite 15 times, compiling a 7-8 spread record.
Xavier has played 13 games against teams in the field, producing a 10-3 SU record and a 9-4 ATS mark. The Musketeers swept Butler and Providence, in addition to winning non-conference games over Michigan, Alabama, Southern Cal, Cincinnati and Dayton.
Mack owns a 6-5 career record (54.5%) in the Tournament.
Weber State (26-8 SU, 14-16 ATS) is making its sixth NCAA Tournament appearance since 1995. The Wildcats beat Michigan State in the first round of the 1995 Tournament. In 1999, Harold 'The Show' Arceneaux, a New Orleans product, dropped 36 points on North Carolina in a stunning first-round upset.
Weber State won the Big Sky Tournament with victories over Portland State (78-74), North Dakota (83-78 in OT) and Montana (62-59). The Wildcats knocked off the Grizzlies as 1.5-point favorites in the finals. Jeremy Senglin led the way with 20 points, six assists, three rebounds and a pair of steals. Ryan Richardson added 15 points thanks to 3-of-5 shooting from downtown.
Weber State is mired in a 3-9 ATS slump in its last nine games. The Wildcats have been underdogs four times, posting a 2-2 record both SU and ATS. They faced only one opponent in the NCAA field, splitting a pair of games both SU and ATS against South Dakota State.
Weber State is led by forward Joel Bolomboy, who averages 17.2 points and 12.7 rebounds per contest.
The 'under' is 17-13-1 overall for the Wildcats.
The 'over' is 21-11 overall for the Musketeers, hitting in their last seven outings.
Cincinnati vs. St. Joseph's
This is a West Region 8/9 showdown in Spokane, WA., with the winner facing Oregon (assuming Holy Cross doesn't become the first No. 16 seed to ever advance) on Sunday. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:55 p.m. Eastern on TruTV.
The Westgate opened Cincinnati as a two-point favorite. The number went down to 1.5, then up to as high as three early Thursday. By late Thursday afternoon, the Bearcats were favored by 2.5 and the total was 136. St. Joseph's was +120 on the money line.
Cincinnati (22-10 SU, 12-16 ATS) is just 3-3 SU in its last six games and 2-5 ATS in its last seven. The Bearcats are off last Friday's 104-97 loss to UConn in four overtimes. They seemed poised to advance at the AAC Tournament when Kevin Johnson buried a trey with 0.8 seconds left in the third extra session. However, UConn's Jalen Adams answered with a buzzer-beating 65-footer off the glass and the Huskies sealed the deal in the fourth OT. Troy Caupain had 37 points, 10 rebounds, three steals and five assists without a turnover in the gut-wrenching defeat. Octavius Ellis finished with 13 points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots.
As always, Mick Cronin's team gets physical and aggressive with opponents at the defensive end. The Bearcats rank 10th in the nation in scoring defense (62.9 PPG) and 11th in field-goal percentage defense (39.0%).
Cincy owns a 5-8 spread record in 13 single-digit 'chalk' situations.
Cincy went 4-7 both SU and ATS in 11 games against teams in the field. The Bearcats' best wins came at VCU, vs. SMU and two regular-season scalps of UConn. We should note that they lost three games in overtime and four losses came by eight combined points, including a 59-57 loss at SMU and an 81-79 loss at Iowa State.
After losing back-to-back games to close the regular season, St. Joseph's (27-7 SU, 22-10 ATS) went to Brooklyn and won the Atlantic-10 Tournament with wins over George Washington (86-80), Dayton (82-79) and VCU (87-74). Phil Martelli's team took it to the Rams in the A-10 finals as a four-point underdog. DeAndre Bembry erupted for 30 points on 13-of-16 shooting from the field. Bembry also had five rebounds and four assists without committing a turnover. Isaiah Miles finished with 26 points and 12 boards, making 11-of-16 attempts from the floor. Aaron Brown was also in double figures with 13 points.
St. Joe's has been an underdog 10 times, compiling an 8-1-1 spread record with eight outright victories. The Hawks played seven games against teams in the field, posting a 5-2 SU record and a 5-1-1 ATS ledger.
Miles averages a team-high 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He makes 52.8 percent of his shots from the field and 88.3 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe. Bembry averages 17.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. He has a 153/69 assists-to-turnovers ratio and has a team-best 46 steals.
The 'over' is 19-13-1 overall for the Hawks, going 11-2 in their last 13 games.
The 'under' is 17-10-1 overall for the Bearcats, 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Friday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
TEMPLE OWLS (21-11) at IOWA HAWKEYES (21-10)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Iowa -7, Total: 139.5
No. 7 seed Iowa and No. 10 seed Temple look to advance to the second round of the South Region in the NCAA tournament when they tip off on Friday afternoon in Brooklyn.
The Iowa Hawkeyes (14-14 ATS) come into Friday’s game against the Temple Owls (17-13 ATS) truly backing into postseason play. Iowa, a top-10 team with a season sweep over Michigan State plus a win at Purdue on its resume, finished out the season 2-6 SU (1-7 ATS). Their regular season was punctuated by a loss in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to Illinois last Thursday in the waning seconds (68-66, Iowa -10.5). Iowa is a frightening 1-5 SU (0-6 ATS) the last six times they were favorites. Coach Fran McCaffery will hope that eight days off will allow his club to regroup and rediscover the form that led them to a 10-1 start in conference play (from Dec. 29 through Feb. 7). Iowa is 9-6 SU (6-8 ATS) with 3+ days off and 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS) in neutral site games.
Coach Fran Dunphy’s Owls closed out their regular season 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS), losing in their conference tournament to eventual champion Connecticut, 77-62 (Temple, +4) on Saturday. Temple is an impressive 15-4 SU (12-6 ATS) with 3+ days of rest, and the Owls are 3-4 SU (5-2 ATS) in neutral site games. Temple wasn’t able to garner any out-of-conference wins over NCAA Tournament opponents, going 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS). The Owls did defeat common opponent Minnesota, 75-70 (PK) on a neutral court in Temple’s second game of the regular season.
Iowa went 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) against non-conference NCAA Tournament opponents. Temple went 5-8 SU (7-6 ATS) overall against NCAA Tournament opponents while Iowa went 7-7 SU (8-6 ATS) against NCAA Tournament opponents overall. In total trends, four of Iowa’s last five games have gone UNDER. Coach Dunphy (3-15 NCAA record) has a well-documented history of getting into the NCAA tournament with regularity, but exiting early with just as much regularity. This is Temple’s first appearance in the field of 68 since 2012-13.
The Fran on the other sideline (Iowa’s McCaffery) also doesn’t have a sterling NCAA Tournament resume, as this is his seventh appearance and he has a 3-7 overall record (although he pulled two first-round upsets as the head man at Siena).
Temple’s offense can be confoundingly bad (40.5% FG, 306th NCAA), considering they have some talented offensive players. The Owls really struggle from inside the arc, shooting just 44.5% from two-point range (323rd NCAA). They don’t shoot well from three (34% 3PT, 205th NCAA) but they shoot it often (23.1 3PA, 66th NCAA). Compounding Temple’s struggles from the field, they seldom go to the free throw line (16.5 FTA, 334th NCAA).
What Temple does excel at is not turning the ball over, at only 9 TO/game (1st NCAA). While this is impressive, if Temple is taking bad shots, then the fact that they don’t literally “give it away” doesn’t stand out as much.
Temple’s scoring defense is solid (67.4 PPG, 60th NCAA) but buttressed by the Owls’ slow pace of play (68.9 possessions, 301st NCAA). Temple also sports a negative rebounding margin (-1.5, 240th NCAA) and they don’t force turnovers (11 TO/game, 307th NCAA). Temple does stifle three pointers (31.5% 3PT, 5.9 3PM), which is good considering the three is a main source of offense for Iowa.
Individually, the Owls are led by senior G Quenton DeCosey (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG). DeCosey really hit a wall in his last nine games, however, scoring above his season average just once and averaging 12.6 PPG on just 28.9% FG in that span. Picking up the offense in DeCosey’s stead was sophomore F Obi Enechionyia (11.2 PPG), who averaged 15.6 PPG and 41.8% 3PT (2.6 3PM) in those nine games to finish the regular season. Enechionyia couldn’t raise his level of play in Temple’s loss to Connecticut in the AAC tournament, however, going just 2-13 for five points.
F Jaylen Bond (10.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) provides muscle in the paint for Temple, while G Josh Brown (8.1 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 TO) is the steady point guard behind the Owls’ sure-handed turnover statistics.
Iowa will have to raise its offense back to season-long levels (78.1 PPG, 44th NCAA) if they want to advance to further rounds in this tournament. Temple slows pace down to a crawl, and while Iowa still owns an efficient attack (1.102 points per poss, 93rd NCAA) and moves the ball well (16 APG, 29th NCAA), their offense has stagnated to average only 67.6 PPG in its last five games. Iowa holds a 45% FG (104th NCAA) shooting mark on the season and is stellar from three-point range (38.2% 3PT, 8.2 3PM), and they should also hold a solid advantage on the glass with their size (38.4 RPG, 60th NCAA). This should be a relatively clean game as both teams don’t foul and don’t commit many turnovers.
Iowa’s x-factor is what they bring with long-armed defenders, as the Hawkeyes boast 4.8 blocks per game (38th NCAA). Temple already has trouble scoring, and standout F Jarrod Uthoff (18.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.7 BPG) is one of the most imposing and unique players in the country to deal with. On defense, Uthoff excels at making up for a lack of foot speed with incredible timing contesting (and blocking) jump shots and getting his hands on shots in the paint from difficult angles.
On offense, Uthoff is efficient from mid-range and long range (45.2% FG, 39.2% 3PT). If Temple can avoid the disruptive Uthoff, however, 7-foot Adam Woodbury (7.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG) – while a possible impediment on the glass – does not pose a shot-blocking threat (0.3 BPG). Woodbury is averaging an impressive 11.5 RPG over his last six games.
G Peter Jok (16.2 PPG, 41.5 3PT, 2.5 3PM) is Iowa’s biggest threat from the perimeter and can shoot the Hawkeyes in (or out) of games single-handedly. Jok scored 29 points in the first round Big Ten tournament loss to Illinois. No other Iowa player is averaging more than 8.5 points per game over the Hawkeyes’ last six games, as McCaffery will need to find more contributors against a team of Temple’s defensive ilk.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (21-11) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (20-12)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -2, Total: 130.5
#10 Pittsburgh will be hoping to prevent yet another lengthy tournament run for #7 Wisconsin when the teams meet on Friday.
Everything seemed to be going well for the Panthers after defeating Duke 76-62 as one-point home favorites on Feb. 28, but Pittsburgh responded to that victory by losing three of its next four games. The team failed to cover in all four of those contests and was beaten badly by North Carolina in the ACC tournament, falling 88-71 as a 7.5-point underdog. Fortunately for the Panthers, the tournament brings them a fresh start and they’ll certainly be confident heading into Friday’s game.
The Badgers did not end the season on the best note either, losing 91-80 as six-point underdogs in Purdue to end the regular season and following it up with a 70-58 loss against Nebraska as 5.5-point favorites in the Big Ten tournament. Wisconsin did, however, win eight of its previous nine games before losing those two contests.
The last time the Panthers and Badgers met was Dec. 16, 2006. Wisconsin won that game 89-75 as a four-point home favorite, but Pittsburgh has won-and-covered in two of the three games these teams have played against one another. One trend favoring the Panthers in this game is that they are 27-12 ATS on Friday nights since 1997. The Badgers, however, are 12-5 ATS after a conference game this season.
Pittsburgh was a solid team on both ends of the floor this season, averaging 76.0 PPG (104th in NCAA) and allowing just 67.9 PPG (79th in NCAA). One thing the Panthers are very good at is moving the basketball, as evidenced by their 16.9 APG (14th in NCAA). G James Robinson (10.3 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.2 SPG) is the catalyst for that type of play.
Robinson is a very smart point guard that takes extremely good care of the basketball. His assist to turnover ratio of 3.95 is good for fourth in the nation and he will need to avoid mistakes against this Badgers team. He isn’t just a passer, though, as he also hits 33.3% of his outside shots. If Wisconsin backs off of him then he’ll have no problem making the team pay for it.
The real scorers for this Pittsburgh team are Fs Michael Young (16.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and Jamel Artis (14.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.1 APG). Both guys really know how to get buckets and they do it in a variety of ways. Both of them are capable of finishing at the rim, but they do most of their damage with midrange jumpers. If they can get hot then Pittsburgh might just be marching to the next round.
The Panthers will need somebody like F Sheldon Jeter (8.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG) to step it up on the glass. Pittsburgh does not have a lot of size and Wisconsin likes to score in the paint. Jeter needs to be aggressive defensively and make sure he doesn’t give the Badgers too many second chances.
Unlike the Wisconsin teams of the past two years, this year’s group wins its games by digging in on the defensive end. The Badgers are allowing just 64.6 PPG (26th in NCAA) on the year and score just enough points to win games. One advantage that Wisconsin will have over Pittsburgh on Friday is size. The Badgers are normally overmatched in that department, but the Panthers are a relatively small team and that means Fs Nigel Hayes (16.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.1 SPG) and Ethan Happ (12.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.8 SPG) will be asked to go to work inside.
Happ is more of a traditional big man that does his job around the rim. He is very crafty and uses his body to shield off his defenders in order to finish at the basket. Happ also has incredible hands defensively and he’ll take the ball away from any Pittsburgh player that isn’t careful around him. Hayes, meanwhile, is one of the best players in college basketball and a lot of that is thanks to his versatility. He is capable of posting his defenders up, beating them off the dribble or making them pay by burying the outside shot.
Although Hayes shoots just 31.4% from the outside, he is a far better shooter than his numbers suggest. If he can get it going on Friday then the Badgers shouldn’t have any problem advancing to the next round.
G Bronson Koenig (13.4 PPG) will, however, need to play well in his matchup with Robinson. Koenig is a sniper from the outside at 39.4% from three, but he is also capable of getting to the basket. If he finds his stroke early then it will take a lot of pressure off of Hayes, but Koenig also happens to be very streaky and is capable of having a poor game on this type of stage. It’s important that the real Koenig shows up on Friday or Wisconsin might just be upset.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS (22-10) at ST JOSEPH'S HAWKS (27-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cincinnati -3, Total: 136
No. 8 seed Saint Joseph’s—the Atlantic 10 Tournament champions—looks to keep winning as it goes up against No. 9 seed Cincinnati in the last game of the NCAA tournament’s first round.
St. Joseph’s (22-11 ATS) brings their stellar resume against the spread into Friday night’s game, as one of the few teams to be coming off of a win in their last game (defeating VCU in the A-10 tournament final, 87-74 – St. Joe’s +4.) The Hawks scorched the nets in Brooklyn, taking home their conference crown, shooting 64.8% FG in the championship game win. St. Joseph’s also shot 57.4% FG in their opening win over George Washington while defeating NCAA Tournament bound Dayton, 82-79 (St. Joe’s +2.5) in the semifinals on the strength of great shooting at the charity stripe (22-25) and timely bench scoring.
Coach Phil Martelli’s Hawks actually were squarely on the bubble going into conference tournament play, having dropped consecutive games at home to St. Bonaventure and bottom-feeder Duquesne. The Hawks only played three NCAA tournament teams in their non-conference schedule, going 2-1 (2-1 ATS) against “Big Six” foes Villanova (loss) and Temple (win), while also defeating MAC champion Buffalo in the third game of the Hawks season.
The Hawks have a “Power Six” win on a neutral court over Virginia Tech, which highlights their 5-2 (5-2 ATS) neutral site record. St. Joseph’s does well on 3+ days rest with a 14-2 (11-4 ATS) record. Even more impressively, St. Joseph’s is 8-2 (8-1-1 ATS) as an underdog.
Cincinnati (12-16 ATS) comes off one of the most memorable games of the season, a heartbreaking four overtime defeat in the American Athletic Conference tournament to eventual champion Connecticut, in which the Huskies needed a half-court shot to force a fourth overtime. The Bearcats had defeated Connecticut in their previous two regular season meetings. Cincinnati closed out the season at 6-4 (4-6 ATS). The Bearcats played more non-conference NCAA Tournament opponents than St. Joseph’s and went 1-3 (1-3 SU) with their only win coming against common opponent VCU on the road (69-63, Cincy -2) on Dec. 19. Cincinnati’s non-conference losses include at Xavier and at home versus Iowa State and Butler. The Bearcats did defeat Nebraska and George Washington in neutral site games before taking their one neutral site defeat to Connecticut last Friday.
As a favorite, Cincinnati is 17-7 (10-14 ATS). In total trends, the OVER is 11-2 in the last 13 games St. Joseph’s has played. This is only the third NCAA appearance for coach Martelli since St. Joseph’s famed 2003-04 Elite Eight team. The Hawks exited in the first round in both occasions since that Elite Eight run, their last appearance coming in 2013-14. Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin has taken his Bearcats to the tournament now for six straight seasons and is 3-4 overall. Cincinnati was a No. 8 seed last season, narrowly defeating Purdue (66-65) before losing to No. 1 overall seed Kentucky in the round of 32.
It will be interesting to see how coach Cronin gets his kids to rebound after the most draining loss of “Championship Week” last Friday. Cincinnati gets 7 days of rest but is only 10-7 (6-9 ATS) with 3+ days of rest or more. While the multiple overtime periods gave Cincinnati a chance to boost their scoring numbers, hitting 97 points for the game, the Bearcats do have big issues putting the ball in in the hoop (42.8% FG, 227th NCAA). Cincinnati has shot no better than 37.8% FG in their last three games and only have hit their season shooting average twice in their past nine games. While the Bearcats can hit from long range (7.6 3PM, 34.5% 3PT) they get frigid cold from beyond the arc at times (see 1-19 3PT versus SMU on Mar. 6 and 1-18 3PT at Temple on Jan. 16).
Cincinnati plays at a very slow tempo (69 poss. per game, 282nd NCAA) which helps their scoring defense rank 9th in the country (62.9 PPG). The Bearcats defense isn’t solely pace-aided, however, as they manage to play very physical (5.8 BPG, 5th NCAA; 7.9 SPG, 19th NCAA) and crash the glass (12.1 ORG) all without fouling (15.6 PF, 6th NCAA). Due to this, Cincinnati unsurprisingly owns the #2 two-point FG% defense in the country (40.9%). It should be interesting to see how the Bearcats play against a team, such as St. Joseph’s, who’s been difficult to deter at the rim or take the ball away from, and whether Cincinnati can impose its will on the offensive glass, as St. Joseph’s also excels on their defensive glass.
Shooting issues have been well-documented, but when Cincinnati is making shots, they have multiple options on offense (four double-figure scorers). G Troy Caupain (13.2 PPG, 4.8 APG) leads the way for the Bearcats and is coming off of a career-high 37 points (10 rebounds, 5 assists) in the loss to Connecticut. G Farad Cobb (10.7 PPG) provides a long range threat for the Bearcats (39.3% 3PT, 2.3 3PM) while F Gary Clark (10.7 PPG, 9 RPG) and F Octavius Ellis (10 PPG, 7.7 RPG) are both physical, long-armed forwards who block 1.5 shots each per game. Both Ellis and Clark closed out the season well, combining for 21.7 PPG and 21.9 RPG in their last eight games, and will be key in taking defensive responsibility for St. Joseph’s two best players.
The Hawks rely on standout forwards Isaiah Miles (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 52.4% FG) and DeAndre Bembry (17.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.5 APG). Unfortunately for St. Joseph’s, Cincinnati matches up very well on defense with St. Joseph’s, being able to (most likely) deploy the aforementioned Clark and Ellis on Miles and Bembry.
The Hawks proficient offense (77.6 PPG, 57th NCAA) runs through Bembry as a point-forward, and Cincinnati’s Caupain (at 6’4”) could also draw the defensive assignment. St. Joseph’s strengths on offense are highlighted by the Hawks ranking in the top 60 in assists per game, rebounds per game, and two-point FG%. St. Joseph’s shoots 45.4% FG overall (85th NCAA) but struggles mightily from beyond the arc (32.7% 3PT).
St. Joseph’s averaged 85 PPG in their three game run in Brooklyn to the conference tournament title. Miles and Bembry averaged 22.3 and 20 PPG, respectively, while G Aaron Brown (10.3 PPG) stepped up to provide a big third option with 16 PPG in the A-10 tournament. Brown’s continued contributions will be huge for St. Joseph’s chances at advancing beyond the first round.
St. Joseph’s is also very good at taking care of the ball (10 TO/game), as Bembry isn’t the only player they can run the offense through, given the emergence of freshman G Lamarr Kimble (6 PPG) and sophomore G Shavar Newkirk (8.1 PPG). While St. Joseph’s defense leaves much to be desired at times, they could make life rough for Cincinnati.
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
West Virginia vs Stephen F. Austin
West Virginia (26-8, 20-11 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U) enters 'The Big Dance' having won/covered in six of its last seven outings. Mountaineers man-handled in their 81-71 Big 12 conference semi loss against Kansas are going to be extremely motivated to get the win in this contest. Although, Stephen F. Austin (27-5, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) hits the hardwood ridding a 20 game win streak the Lumberjacks haven't faced anything close to the level of competition Mountaineers bring to the court. Mountaineers are a far superior team in terms of talent level and competition get the win/cover. Mountaineers are 15-6-1 ATS last 22 NCAA Tournament games, 11-5 ATS vs non-conference foes. Lumberjacks are 1-3 SU/ATS in NCAA Tournament play, 2-6 ATS vs non-conference opponents.
South Region First Round Betting Preview
By Covers.com
No. 15 NC-Asheville Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-17.5, 141.5)
Following a disappointing conclusion to the Big East tournament - combined with an NCAA Tournament seed and region that are slight letdowns, as well - Villanova tips off in the Field of 68 on Friday in Brooklyn against UNC Asheville. After losing to Seton Hall in the Big East tournament title game on Saturday, the Wildcats had to settle for a No. 2 seed in the South Region (instead of their ideal No. 1 seed in the East) but must regroup quickly against a 15th-seeded Bulldogs squad that defeated Georgetown earlier this season.
Villanova has not made it out of the NCAA Tournament's opening weekend since 2009, but the current crop of Wildcats was ranked No. 1 in the nation as recently as last month and comes in with a variety of dangerous weapons. Josh Hart, a first-team All-Big East selection, is Villanova's best and most consistent player, although Kris Jenkins and Ryan Arcidiacono are effective complements to the junior guard. UNC Asheville, which upset top-seeded Winthrop in the Big South tournament championship game, will try to be as physical with Villanova as Seton Hall was on Saturday. “I think we're going to learn a lot from this game,” Wildcats coach Jay Wright told reporters after losing to the Pirates. “This was a tough, physical, athletic team that that really got into us in the first half and took us out of our offense. And I think they're the kind of teams you meet in the (NCAA) Tournament. So it's great to have that experience. We made a lot of mistakes because of what they did.”
LINE HISTORY: Villanova opened as 17.5-point favorites. The total opened at 141.5 and has held tight all week. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT UNC ASHEVILLE (22-11, 6-0 ATS, 2-4 O/U): The Bulldogs are in the Big Dance for the first time since 2012, when they were seeded 16th and nearly upset No. 1 seed Syracuse before falling 72-65 in a controversial Round of 64 matchup. Freshman Dwayne Sutton was named MVP of the conference tournament after capping his run with a 25-point, 18-rebound performance - both career highs - against Winthrop. Sutton averages 12 points per game, joining four of his teammates in double-figures, a group that is led by Dylan Smith (13.5 points), who made 77 3-pointers - 41 more than anyone else on the team.
ABOUT VILLANOVA (29-5, 15-17-1 ATS, 17-15-1 O/U): The Wildcats had won 12 of 13 before losing to Seton Hall in a game where they got very little production from Arcidiacono and backcourt mate Jalen Brunson, who combined to shoot 2-of-11 for five points. Jenkins drained five 3-pointers in that contest and averages 13.3 points, although he has surpassed that average in each of his last nine games. Hart (15.5 points) recorded eight double-doubles in the first three months of the season but has not come particularly close in his last seven games, although his scoring production and shooting efficiency remain steady.
TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 vs. Big East.
* Over is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 overall.
No. 11 Hawaii Warriors vs. No. 4 California Golden Bears (-4.5, 141.5)
California’s highly touted defense will be tested Friday as the fourth-seeded Bears meet No. 13 Hawaii in the first round of the NCAA Tournament’s South Region in Spokane, Wash. Cal earned its first top-five seed since 1997 despite falling to Utah in overtime of the Pac-12 tournament semifinals, while Hawaii beat Long Beach State in the Big West tournament title game to clinch its first trip to the Big Dance since 2002.
The Bears led the Pac-12 in scoring defense (67 points per game) while holding opponents to 39.3 percent shooting but need to be careful not to underestimate a Hawaii team that averaged a Big West-high 77.8 points per game. The game features a matchup of two dynamic senior point guards in Hawaii’s Roderick Bobbitt and Cal’s Tyrone Wallace, who averaged 15.3 points and 4.4 assists and had a season-high 26 points in Friday’s loss to Utah. Bobbitt, a native of Oakland, led the Big West in steals and assists but was limited by foul trouble in Saturday’s 64-60 win over Long Beach State. Hawaii also matches up well in the frontcourt, where Big West player of the year Stefan Jankovic will be tasked with slowing down Cal freshmen forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb.
LINE HISTORY: California opened at 6.5-point favorites but a potentially disasterous injury to Cal's Tyrone Wallace has moved the line all the way down to -4.5. The total opened at 141 and went up as high as 143.5 at one point during the week, but it has settled back down to 141.5 - also as a result of Wallace's injury. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT HAWAII (27-5, 14-12 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U): The Rainbow Warriors, who were picked to finish third in the Big West preseason poll under first-year coach Eran Ganot, shared the regular-season title with UC Irvine before tying the school's single-season wins record with the victory over Long Beach State. The 6-foot-11 Jankovic averages 15.7 points and 6.6 rebounds and was named to the Big West all-tournament team along with guard Aaron Valdes, who scored 14 points in the title game. The team’s opportunistic backcourt includes senior Quincy Smith, a Bay Area native who averaged 7.7 points and 1.7 steals.
ABOUT CAL (23-10, 18-14-1 ATS, 16-17 O/U): After opening Pac-12 play 4-5, Cal won eight of its final nine regular-season games and defeated Oregon State in the conference quarterfinals before falling to Utah. Brown was named Pac-12 freshman of the year after averaging 15.0 points and 5.5 rebounds, and Rabb has likewise been as good as advertised while averaging 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. The Bears’ veteran backcourt features a trio of sharpshooters in Wallace, Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird, who rediscovered his stroke during the team’s late-season surge and averaged 16.5 points in the Pac-12 tournament.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Golden Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 in Golden Bears last 5 non-conference games.
No. 10 Temple Owls vs. No. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes (-7.5, 140)
Seventh-seeded Iowa makes its third straight trip to the NCAA Tournament and faces No. 10 Temple in the first round of the South Regional on Friday in Brooklyn, N.Y. The Hawkeyes, who registered their fourth straight 20-win season under coach Fran McCaffery, attempt to make it past the second round for the first time in its sixth try since 1999.
McCaffery's team put together an impressive run of 16 wins in 18 games between November and February, but have lost six of its last eight games, including its only game in the Big 10 tournament. The Hawkeyes are carried by the tandem of senior forward Jarrod Uthoff and junior guard Peter Jok, who have accounted for 44 percent of the team's scoring and 53 percent of its made 3-pointers. "It's March now and it's win or go home so we need to stay positive and regroup," Jok told the media. The Owls return to the tournament after a two-year absence on a roll, winning 13 of their last 17 games after opening with an 8-7 record under coach Fran Dunphy, who takes the Owls to their sixth NCAA tournament in his 10 seasons but first since 2013.
LINE HISTORY: Iowa opened as seven-point favorites and were bet up slightly to -7.5. The total opened at 138.5 and rose to 140 throughout the week. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT TEMPLE (21-11, 17-13 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U): The Owls don't do anything particularly spectacular aside from playing defense, but even that wasn't there in a 77-62 loss to Connecticut in the American Athletic Conference tournament. Overall, Temple limits the opposition to 41.7 shooting from the field and 31.4 percent from 3-point territory, but occasionally its will throw in a clunker as it did against the likes of Villanova, Tulsa and UConn. Quenton DeCosey is the main cog on offense, averaging 15.6 points and Jaylen Boyd cleans up underneath with 8.3 rebounds per game.
ABOUT IOWA (21-10, 14-14 ATS, 14-14 OU): Uthoff and Jok appeared to go through a shooting slump toward the end the season, which could explain the Hawkeyes' swoon. Over a five-game span that included four losses, Uthoff made 35.3 percent and Jok 34.8 percent, but the duo seem to come out of it in a loss to Illinois in the Big 10 tournament. The other main contributors for the Hawkeyes are Anthony Clemmons, Mike Gesell, who leads the team with 6.3 assists per game, and Adam Woodbury, the top rebounder at 8.5 per contest.
TRENDS:
* Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Hawkeyes are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Owls last 6 neutral site games.
* Under is 4-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 games following a straight up loss.
No. 12 South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. No. 5 Maryland Terrapins (-9.5, 143)
At times this season it looked like Maryland might end up on a top line come NCAA Tournament time, but the Terrapins finished out the season with losses in five of their last eight games - including the Big Ten tournament - to end up as the No. 5 seed in the South. Maryland will take on No. 12 seed South Dakota State in the first round on Friday in Spokane, Wash.
The Terrapins were 15-1 before running through the gauntlet of a tough Big Ten schedule but remain one of the most talented teams in the country behind sophomore guard Melo Trimble and the front line of Diamond Stone, Robert Carter and Jake Layman. Trimble was held to 11 points on 2-of-15 shooting in the 64-61 loss to Michigan State in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament and is hoping to guide his team out of the first weekend after falling in the second round to West Virginia in the NCAA Tournament as a freshman. Trimble and company will not have an easy road to Sunday with Jackrabbits, who rolled through the Summit League tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last five years. South Dakota State will test Maryland’s front line with freshman forward Mike Daum, who has scored in double figures in 20 straight games.
LINE HISTORY: Maryland opened as nine-point favorites and the public has bet that number up to -9.5. The total opened at 145 and has been bet down a full two points to 143. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (26-7, 15-14 ATS, 14-15 O/U): The Jackrabbits are peaking at the right time with wins in six straight games after knocking off rival North Dakota State in the Summit final. “Our kids, literally, this is as hard as I’ve seen them play all year in terms of being in tune with each other,” South Dakota State coach Scott Nagy told reporters. A team defensive effort, a team rebounding effort. I’m super happy for the seniors, particularly Deondre (Parks), George (Marshall) and Keaton (Moffitt), because last year we weren’t able to go, but they’re going to get the NCAA experience this year.” Marshall (14.9 points) and Parks (14.7) will get the job of stopping Trimble.
ABOUT MARYLAND (25-8, 15-16-1 ATS, 12-19-1 O/U): Three of the Terrapins’ last four losses came by five or fewer points, and they managed only two field goals over the final 10 minutes of the semifinal loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten tournament. “To be honest with you, through the ebbs and flow of the season, you just kind of have to look at your last game," guard Rasheed Sulaimon told reporters after the latest setback. "Sometimes you're going to play at your highest level. Sometimes you're not. We definitely had both throughout the whole season. Just looking at this game, I'm proud of everything we accomplished." Sulaimon averages 11.1 points but failed to reach double figures in five of the last six contests.
TRENDS:
* Jackrabbits are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
* Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 5-0 in Jackrabbits last 5 overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Terrapins last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
West Region First Round Betting Preview
By Covers.com
No. 10 VCU Rams vs. No. 10 Oregon State Beavers (+4.5, 141)
Oregon State will snap a 26-year NCAA Tournament drought, the second-longest active streak among major conference programs in the country, when it faces VCU on Friday in Oklahoma City. The Beavers, considered a bubble team by some NCAA Tourney prognosticators, cruised in as a surprising No. 7 seed in the West Region and open with a Rams squad that will be making its sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
The return to the NCAA Tournament for the Beavers is filled with ironies. Oregon State's last previous trip to the NCAA Tournament occurred in 1990 when future Naismith Hall of Famer and longtime NBA defensive stalwart Gary "The Glove" Payton played point guard. This year Wayne Tinkle's squad is led by Payton's son, Gary Payton II, who earned his second consecutive Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Award and also was a first team all-conference selection. And should the Beavers get on a roll and make it to the Elite Eight they could very likely see a familiar face - Civil War rival and No. 1 seed Oregon.
LINE HISTORY: This is another case where the books and the selection committee didn't see eye-to-eye, as the 10th seeded Rams opened as 4-point faves over the 7th seeded Beavers. Since then bettors backed VCU, moving the line to -4.5. The total has moved from its opening number of 141. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT VCU (24-10, 20-9 ATS, 14-15 O/U): The Rams didn't miss a beat despite the departure of head coach Shaka Smart to Texas, earning a share of the regular season Atlantic 10 title and then making it to their fourth consecutive A-10 Tournament championship game where they lost to Saint Joseph's, 87-74, on Sunday. "Our expectations were a little bit lower than they've been this year," coach Will Wade, a former Smart assistant, said. "I don't think a lot of people thought we'd tie for the regular season and (get) back in the conference final." Four starters return from a squad that fell 75-72 in overtime to Ohio State in the first round of last year's NCAA Tourney - including senior guard Melvin Johnson, who leads the team in scoring (17.4) and has made 104 3-pointers; junior guard JeQuan Lewis (10.7); and junior forward Mo Alie-Cox (10.2).
ABOUT OREGON STATE (19-12, 16-13-1 ATS, 20-10 O/U): The Beavers finished in a three-way tie for sixth place with USC and Washington in the Pac-12 and lost to Cal, 76-68, in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney - which is why people in Corvallis were a tad nervous until the NCAA Tournament pairings were released. Payton has been spectacular at times, leading the team in scoring (15.9), rebounding (7.9), assists (5.1), steals (2.5) and SportsCenter appearances for highlight-reel dunks. Two other players average in double figures - freshman forward Tres Tinkle (13.1) and freshman guard Stephen Thompson Jr. (10.8) - but it's the Beavers' 1-3-1 zone defense that has helped key the team's turnaround, forcing an average of 13.5 turnovers per game and holding opponents to just 32.9 percent shooting from 3-point range.
TRENDS:
* VCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus Pac-12 opponents.
* Oregon State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 VCU's in its last five games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 7-0 in Oregon State's last seven neutral site games.
No. 15 Cal. State-Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners (-14, 140)
Oklahoma will try to avoid another first-round upset when the second-seeded Sooners open the NCAA Tournament on Friday against No. 15 CSU Bakersfield in the West Region at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma fell to No. 12 seed North Dakota State in the opening round two years ago, but rebounded to make it to the Sweet 16 last season.
The Sooners most recently lost in the Big 12 tournament semifinals Friday against West Virginia, as Buddy Hield's half-court basket was ruled to have left his hand a fraction of a second late in the 69-67 defeat. Hield, a 6-foot-4 senior guard, is still having one of the best seasons of any player in the country, averaging 25 points and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 46.4 percent from 3-point range. CSU Bakersfield is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance after knocking off New Mexico State on Saturday to win the Western Athletic Conference tournament title. The Roadrunners have won five straight and nine and 10, but the closest they've come to playing a team the caliber of Oklahoma was a 94-59 loss to Saint Mary's back on Nov. 29.
LINE HISTORY: No. 2 seed Oklahoma opened as 13.5-point favorites and have been bet up to -14. The total has stayed put at the opening number of 140. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT CSU BAKERSFIELD (24-8, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U): The Roadrunners won't feel completely out of their element as four of their players are from the neighboring state of Texas, including third-leading scorer Dedrick Basile (12.0 points) and fourth-leading scorer Damiyne Durham (11.8). Basile, a 5-10 junior guard, is averaging 14.5 points during the current five-game winning streak while shooting 12-for-22 from 3-point range, including the game-winner against New Mexico State. Durham, a 6-4 freshman guard, also shoots the ball well from deep, taking nearly twice as many 3s as Basile on the season, but may have to exert a lot of energy guarding Hield on the other end of the floor.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (25-7, 12-18 ATS, 13-17 O/U): Hield may still be steaming following his performance against West Virginia, when he not came a split-second from nailing the game-winner, but was held to a single-digit point total for the first time this season. Hield, the two-time Big 12 Player of the Year, has followed up most of his subpar performances with huge efforts this season, most recently scoring 33 points against Texas last month after finishing with 17 the game before against Oklahoma State. Just in case Hield has another off-night, the Sooners will look to fellow guards Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins to pick up the scoring slack.
TRENDS:
* Cal. State-Bakersfield is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS in its last five overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Cal. State Bakersfield's last nine games overall.
* Under is 10-1 in Oklahoma's last 11 games overall.
No. 14 Green Bay Phoenix vs. No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (-13, 155)
Following a four-year absence, Texas A&M makes its return to the NCAA Tournament on Friday with a first-round matchup against No. 14 seed Green Bay in a South Region affair in Oklahoma City. The third-seeded Aggies reeled off eight consecutive wins before a tough overtime loss to Kentucky in the finals of the SEC tournament on Sunday and have matched the highest seed in program history.
Billy Kennedy took home SEC Coach of the Year honors and boasts an experienced squad with four senior starters. Danuel House is perhaps the most decorated of the bunch and the All-SEC second-team selection had a career-high 32 points in the loss to the Wildcats while fellow senior and leading scorer Jalen Jones had 15 and nine rebounds. The Phoenix, who lead the nation in steals amidst a run of high-scoring affairs, also have eight wins in the last nine games and upset Horizon League regular-season champ Valparaiso en route to the conference tourney crown and the school's first Tournament berth since 1996. Carrington Love leads the way with 17.7 points per game for first-year coach Linc Darner, a former two-time captain as a player with Purdue.
LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M have held steady at the opening number of -13. The total also hasn't seen any movement, sticking at 155. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT GREEN BAY (23-12, 20-10-2 ATS, 18-14 O/U): Love had 23 points in the upset of Valparaiso but took a back seat in the finals win over Wright State, as Jordan Fouse led the way with 16 points and Charles Cooper had 15. Fouse averages 12.8 points on the season but is up to 16.1 over his last eight games and an even more impressive 18.5 during the conference tournament. Love, who also led the Horizon League in steals (2.7), hit 84 3-pointers, more than double any of his teammates.
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (26-8, 15-12-2 ATS, 12-17 O/U): Jones and House do the bulk of the scoring, but senior point guard Alex Caruso - the school's all-time leader in assists and steals - runs the show. Caruso has 43 assists against 10 turnovers over his last seven games and fellow starting guard Anthony Collins has given it up just twice in 85 minutes in a four-game stretch for a squad that entered Sunday tied for 19th in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.45). The Aggies could have an interesting ride in Oklahoma City, which is roughly five hours away by car and could feature a second-round encounter with rival Texas, whom they defeated in the Battle 4 Atlantis on Nov. 25.
TRENDS:
* Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Texas A&M is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Green Bay's last 10 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 Aggies' last five games following a SU loss.
No. 16 Holy Cross Crusaders vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-23)
Dana Altman has presided over the most successful six-year run in Oregon's 111-season program history, but his success in the NCAA Tournament has usually been fleeting at best. After earning a No. 1 seed for the first time, his Ducks eye the beginning of a deep run in first-round action of the West Region on Friday when they face No. 16 seed Holy Cross in Spokane, Wash.
Oregon, which has amassed at least 21 wins in each of Altman's six seasons, has made only one Sweet 16 appearance under his leadership and bowed out in the second round in each of the previous two years. The Ducks swept the Pac-12 regular-season and tournament title for the first time in school history, however, suggesting they could be primed for their first foray into the Final Four since winning the first NCAA Tournament in 1939. The Crusaders, who are the only team with a losing record in this year's field, continued their unlikely postseason surge with Wednesday's 59-55 victory over Southern in a First Four contest in Dayton, Ohio. Holy Cross ended a 63-year winless drought in the NCAA Tournament with its fifth straight victory, all of which have come away from home.
LINE HISTORY: The No. 1 seed Ducks opened as big 22.5-point favorites and have been bet up to -23. The total remains at its opening number of 133.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT HOLY CROSS (15-19, 6-0 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Malachi Alexander (team-high marks of 11.8 points, 5.6 points, 2.9 assists) nearly logged his first triple-double Wednesday - finishing with seven points, eight rebounds and a career-high eight assists - after scoring a record 83 points during the Patriot League tournament. The Crusaders have relied almost exclusively on a 1-3-1 defense during their winning streak, holding Southern nearly 18 points below its season average after allowing an average of 57.3 points during their conference tournament. Robert Champion (11.7 points) led all scorers with 19 points off the bench versus the Jaguars and went 3-for-5 beyond the arc, matching the number of 3-pointers Southern hit as a team (3-for-20).
ABOUT OREGON (28-6, 19-12 ATS, 14-17 O/U): The Ducks played one of their most complete games in a 88-57 title-game rout of Utah on Saturday, shooting 51.6 percent - including 11-of-22 beyond the arc - while scoring 28 points off 20 turnovers and 23 points off 17 offensive rebounds. Oregon features two of the Pac-12's top four shot-blockers in Jordan Bell (1.7) and Chris Boucher (3.1; second-best in the nation), who is the only player in conference history with at least 100 blocks and 35 3-pointers. First-team All-Pac 12 performers Dillon Brooks (team-high 16.8 points) and Elgin Cook (14.5) are two of four double-digit scorers for the Ducks, who averaged 88.7 points during the conference tournament.
TRENDS:
* Holy Cross is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Oregon is 6-1 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 4-0 in Holy Cross' last four neutral site games.
* Over is 7-3 in Oregon's last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
No. 11 Northern Iowa Panthers vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns (-4.5, -124.5)
Two tough defenses will be on display when sixth-seeded Texas faces No. 11 Northern Iowa in Friday's first-round matchup in the West Region in Oklahoma City. First-year head coach Shaka Smart, who went 7-5 in the NCAA Tournament while at VCU, has the Longhorns ranked second in the Big 12 in blocked shots and fourth in scoring defense at 68.1 points.
Texas might look a little different with the return of senior center Cameron Ridley, who missed 20 games with a broken foot before returning briefly at the conference tournament. The Panthers, who won nine of their last 10 regular-season games before claiming the Missouri Valley Tournament, are ranked 11th nationally in scoring defense (62.9). The Panthers are making their fourth Tournament appearance in the past eight years, winning a first-round game last year against Wyoming. Friday's winner will face either Texas A&M or Green Bay on Sunday.
LINE HISTORY: No. 6 Texas opened as 5-point favorites, but bettors like Northern Iowa as the line has come down to Texas -4.5. The total has been bet up a half point from 124 to 124.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT NORTHERN IOWA (22-12, 19-13-1 ATS, 13-20 O/U): Senior guard Wes Washpun, who hit the buzzer-beater in the MVC title game and was named the tournament MVP, leads the Panthers with 14.3 points and 5.2 assists. Senior guards Matt Bohannon (11.8 points) and Paul Jesperson (10.7 points) add to the balanced offensive attack while junior guard Jeremy Morgan (10.4 points) leads the Panthers - who own non-conference wins against North Carolina and Iowa State - with 5.1 rebounds. The Panthers lost three of their top four scorers from last year's 31-win squad and overcame a 2-6 start to league play.
ABOUT TEXAS (20-12, 16-15 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): Junior guard Isaiah Taylor leads the Longhorns with 14.8 points and 4.9 assists. Prince Ibeh earned Big 12 defensive player of the year honors after leading the team in rebounds (6.3) and blocks (2.6) since Ridley's injury. Freshmen Eric Davis Jr. (7.5 points) and Kerwin Roach Jr. (7.4 points) have been consistent contributors, with Roach scoring in double figures in three of his last four games.
TRENDS:
* Northern Iowa is 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall.
* Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 5-0 in Northern Iowa's last five games overall.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Texas' last four games overall.
No. 9 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 8 St. Joseph's Hawks (+2.5, 136.5)
No. 8 seed Saint Joseph's looks to build off its biggest victory of the season when it takes on ninth-seeded Cincinnati in the first round of the West Region in Spokane, Wash., on Friday. The Hawks knocked off VCU 87-74 on Sunday to claim their second Atlantic 10 tournament title in the last three years and secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament after missing out on March Madness last year.
"It's a special achievement for this group, especially the seniors," Saint Joseph's coach Phil Martelli told reporters. "They have a wonderful team character and they've been like this since August." Cincinnati earned its sixth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament on the back of another 20-win season - its sixth straight under coach Mick Cronin. The Bearcats were left to sweat out Selection Sunday after falling to Connecticut (in part due to a 62-foot buzzer beater in the third overtime) of the American Athletic Conference tournament quarterfinals on Friday. Cincinnati has held six of its last 10 opponents to 60 points or fewer and hopes to use its stifling defense to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.
LINE HISTORY: Despite being the No. 9 seed, Cincinnati opened as 2-point favorites, but early action came in on St. Joe's , moving the line to Cincy -1. Since then the Bearcats have seen more action and the line has moved back to Cincy -2.5. The total is down a half point from the opening number, going from 137 to 136.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT SAINT JOSEPH'S (27-7, 22-10-1 ATS, 19-13-1 O/U): Atlantic 10 Player of the Year DeAndre Bembry led the Hawks with 30 points to go along with five rebounds and four assists in the win over VCU. Senior forward Isaiah Miles added 26 points and 12 rebounds against the Rams en route to earning the Atlantic 10 tournament's Most Outstanding Player honors. "We went through a rough year last year," Bembry told reporters. "I'm happy the guys on the team last year got to see a championship this year."
ABOUT CINCINNATI (22-10, 12-16 ATS, 10-17-1 O/U): Troy Caupain filled up the stat sheet in the loss to the Huskies as he racked up a career-high 37 points to go along with 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals after being named to the All-AAC first team earlier in the week. Octavius Ellis added 13 points and 10 rebounds for his seventh double-double of the season while Gary Clark also got into the act with 12 points and 12 boards against UConn. The Bearcats are 3-1 all-time against Saint Joseph's but haven't played the Hawks since 1969.
TRENDS:
* Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
* St. Joe's is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last four versus A-10 opponents.
* Over is 9-0 in St. Joe's last nine games following a SU win.
East Region First Round Betting Preview
Covers.com
No. 10 Pittsburgh Panthers vs. No. 7 Wisconsin Badgers (-2, 131)
Wisconsin is making its 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, but it’s certainly a different Badgers bunch than the team which reached the Final Four the past two seasons. Wisconsin, which features a first-year coach and a revamped roster, are the East Region’s seventh seed and will face 10th-seeded Pittsburgh in the first round Friday in St. Louis.
Greg Gard, who took over as the Badgers’ interim coach when mentor Bo Ryan suddenly resigned Dec. 15, was officially had his interim tag removed March 8 when he received a five-year contract from the school. Gard, who is in his 16th season at Wisconsin, lost four of his first six games at the helm, including a 1-4 Big Ten start, but the Badgers won 11 of their next 12 before dropping their last two prior to Selection Sunday. “This is an extremely special moment for me and our family,” Gard said at the March 8 news conference. “But I think just special for the state of Wisconsin, from the standpoint of being one of their own, that's been able to trek through their career at various stops around the state, and to ultimately be in this position to be able to lead your home state institution's flagship school into the future.” That immediate future begins with the Big Dance date against Pittsburgh, which is making its 13th NCAA Tournament appearance in the last 15 seasons.
LINE HISTORY: Wisconsin opened as 2-point favorites, the spread dropped down as low as -1 at one point earlier in the week, but came back up to the opening number by Thursday. The total opened at 131 and has held steady. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT PITTSBURGH (21-11, 12-17 ATS, 13-16 O/U): The Panthers did miss the NCAA tourney a season ago for only the second time in 13 seasons under coach Jamie Dixon, finishing 19-15. “It means a lot to make the tournament knowing where we were last year,” senior guard James Robinson said in a Pittsburgh news release Sunday. “We know Wisconsin is going to play hard, and we’ll get right to work (Monday) to prepare for the game.” With 10.3 points per game, Robinson joins forwards Michael Young (16.0) and Jamel Artis (14.4) as double-digit scorers for the Panthers, who finished ninth in the ACC with a 9-9 record and were ousted by top-seeded North Carolina 88-71 in the conference-tournament quarterfinals.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (20-12, 16-16 ATS, 14-18 O/U): The Badgers bounced back from their 1-4 Big Ten start to finish 12-6 and tie for third place in the standings before being upended by Nebraska 70-58 in the second round of the conference tournament in Indianapolis. Junior forward Nigel Hayes (16.3 points per game) and junior guard Bronson Koenig (13.4), the two starters remaining from last season’s national championship game loss to Duke, are the team’s leading scorers and also are averaging a combined 5.6 assists per outing. Meanwhile, 6-9 freshman forward Ethan Happ is averaging 12.7 points and a team-most 7.8 rebounds.
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
* Badgers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 Friday games.
* Under is 8-1 in Badgers last 9 overall.
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (-8, 145.5)
West Virginia will be a heavy favorite Friday when the third-seeded Mountaineers face No. 14 seed Stephen F. Austin in the first round of the NCAA Tournament’s East Region in Brooklyn, N.Y., and it’s easy to understand the logic. Coach Bob Huggins’ squad recorded an impressive win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals and took a one-point lead into the half against Kansas in the title game before falling 81-71.
Guard Jaysean Paige leads a balanced attack for the Mountaineers, whose high-pressure defense forces more turnovers per possession than any team in the country. Guard Daxter Miles Jr. turned in one of the best defensive performances of the season in the Big 12 semifinals by holding Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield to six points on 1-of-8 shooting, and the 6-foot-3 sophomore will need another strong effort against the upset-minded Lumberjacks. Stephen F. Austin won its third straight Southland Conference tournament on Saturday with a 82-60 rout of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and the Lumberjacks led the league in scoring (80.7 points per game) and defense (63.3 points). Coach Brad Underwood's squad upset fifth-seeded VCU two years ago in the NCAA Tournament and face a similar challenge against the Mountaineers.
LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 7.5-point favorites over Stephen F. Austin and the spread was bet up slightly to -8 by Thursday evening. The total opened at 147 and gradually dropped all week to settle at 145.5. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (27-5, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): The Lumberjacks are riding a 20-game winning streak and boast one of the nation’s most underrated stars in senior guard Thomas Walkup, who averaged 17.5 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists and earned the conference tournament MVP for the third straight year. Forward Clide Geffrard and guard Demetrious Floyd earned All-Tournament honors for the Lumberjacks, who aren’t lacking for confidence. “This team is very good,” Underwood told reporters. “We’re not going to be afraid of the moment. It’s one game at a time, and that’s the way we’re going to approach it.”
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (26-8, 20-11 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U): The Mountaineers were among the nation’s worst 3-point shooting teams during the regular season and that continued in the Big 12 final as they finished 2-of-15 from beyond the arc. The stellar frontcourt, which includes the imposing duo of Jonathan Holton and Devin Williams, left an impression on Kansas guard Wayne Selden Jr. “It’s a dangerous group,” he told reporters. “You know, the way they press, it’s really unconventional, but it works for them, and they could be really dangerous in the tournament.”
TRENDS:
* Lumberjacks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
* Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Lumberjacks last 6 Friday games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Mountaineers last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
No. 15 Weber St. Wildcats vs. No. 2 Xavier Musketeers (-13, 147.5)
Xavier worked its way to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and is looking for a second straight trip to the Sweet 16 and beyond. The Musketeers will get things started against 15th-seeded Big Sky champion Weber State on Friday in the East Region in St. Louis.
The No. 2 seed is the highest in school history for Xavier, which has reached the NCAA Tournament in 10 of the last 11 seasons and reached the Sweet 16 in three of the last six trips. The Musketeers boast one of the top offenses in the country at an average of 81.3 points and pushed that number to 87.9 over the final seven games. Sophomore guard Trevon Bluiet leads four player averaging double figures at 15.5 points but was one of three players to foul out for the Musketeers in an 87-83 loss to Seton Hall in the Big East tournament semifinals. The Wildcats can put up some points as well (averaging 76.7) and punctuated a Big Sky regular season title by beating second-place Montana 62-59 in the tournament final to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons.
LINE HISTORY: Xavier opened as big 13.5-point favorites and the spread came down slightly to -13 by Thursday night. The total open at 147.5 and hasn't budged an inch all week. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT WEBER STATE (26-8, 14-16 ATS, 13-17 O/U): The Wildcats have a distant history of NCAA Tournament success - knocking off Michigan State in the first round in 1995 and North Carolina in the opener in 1999 - and are returning again after a bounce-back season that saw them improve from 13-17 to conference champions. "I’m just so proud of this team,” Weber State coach Randy Rahe told reporters. “We went through so much last year but to do this is great. I’m so happy for our team and how once again, they found a way.” Junior guard Jeremy Senglin leads the team with an average of 18.2 points and was named the Big Sky tournament MVP after putting up 22.3 points in the three victories.
ABOUT XAVIER (27-5, 19-13 ATS, 21-11 O/U): The Musketeers landed in a brutal East bracket that includes traditional powers North Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Notre Dame and Wisconsin among the top seven seeds. Xavier can score with any of those teams from the starting unit and the bench, where senior James Farr takes the lead. The 6-10 forward serves as the team’s sixth man most games and enters tournament play on a strong run by scoring in double figures in each of the last six contests.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
* Musketeers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 Friday games.
* Over is 7-0 in Musketeers last 7 overall.
No. 11 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3, 143)
Notre Dame's surprising collapse in the ACC tournament last weekend was certainly not what coach Mike Brey expected, but it did allow the Fighting Irish to get something its next opponent only wish it could have - rest. Sixth-seeded Notre Dame looks to rebound from its worst offensive showing of the season when it faces road-weary No. 11 seed Michigan on Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.
"We could make our travel plans at halftime; let me put it that way," Brey told reporters last Friday after his squad, which entered the ACC tournament semifinals as one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country, went more than 11 minutes without a field goal in a 78-47 drubbing against North Carolina. The season-worst scoring effort was all the more surprising after the Irish battled back from a 16-point second-half deficit the night before to rally past Duke in overtime. The Wolverines entered last Thursday on the NCAA Tournament bubble prior to upsetting top-seed Indiana before losing to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament semifinals. Michigan, which will be playing its fifth game in nine days, earned the right to face Notre Dame after edging Tulsa 67-62 on Wednesday in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio.
LINE HISTORY: Notre Dame opened as 3-point favorites for their game against Michigan the day after St. Patrick's Day and the line has held solid. The total opened at 143 and has also been steady. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (23-12, 17-16 ATS, 19-13-1 O/U): The Wolverines, who led the Big Ten with 9.3 made 3-pointers entering Wednesday, rank second among NCAA Tournament teams with a school-record 332 triples despite going 6-of-25 beyond the arc against Tulsa. Michigan used a tiebreaking 3-pointer from little-used Kameron Chatman with 0.2 seconds remaining to beat the Hoosiers and received more unexpected contributions Wednesday from freshman Moritz Wagner, a deep reserve who doubled his season total entering the game with four blocks and pulled down a career-high eight boards. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (8.5 points) has scored at least 14 points in four straight and six of his last eight outings after doing so only five times in his team's first 27 games.
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (21-11, 14-15-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): The Wolverines don't appear to have an answer in the post for 6-10 forward Zach Auguste (14.4 points, ACC-best 10.8 rebounds), who is averaging 15.7 points and 11.9 rebounds with eight double-doubles over his last 12 contests. Demetrius Jackson (team-high marks of 15.5 points, 4.8 assists and 1.2 steals) has failed to meet his scoring average in seven straight contests, averaging 11 points on 4-of-20 from the field during the Irish's two-game run in the ACC tournament. Jackson's limited contributions recently have been minimized somewhat by the increased production from V.J. Beachem (11.3 points), who is 12-of-24 beyond the arc over Notre Dame's last five contests.
TRENDS:
* Wolverines are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
* Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wolverines last 6 Friday games.
* Under is 14-3-1 in Fighting Irish last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
Midwest Region First Round Betting Preview
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No. 10 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 7 Dayton Flyers (-1, 129)
Despite losses in five of its last six games, No. 10 Syracuse is back in the NCAA Tournament and will face No. 7 Dayton in the first round of the Midwest Region on Friday at St. Louis. The Orange, who were ineligible for the tournament last year, endured an up-and-down season, posting a pair of winning streaks of at least five games and a pair of losing streaks of at least three games.
Syracuse does not lack for weapons, as it has senior Michael Gbinije, freshman Malachi Richardson and freshman Tyler Lydon among five players who play better than 30 minutes per game. Gbinije, who was named to the All-ACC second team, averages close to 18 points while shooting 40 percent from 3-point territory and Lydon has been even better from beyond the arc for a team that is not afraid to hoist 3-point attempts. The Orange have attempted 776 treys this season, good for 37th in the nation. The Flyers won nine straight games at one point this season, but followed that with a 4-4 mark in their last eight games, including a loss to Saint Joseph's in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament.
LINE HISTORY: Syracuse opened this First Round matchup as 1-point faves, but the line has jumped the fence since then and it is now Dayton who is the 1-point fave. The total has been bet down 2-points since opening, moving from 131 to 129. Check the complete line history here.
ABOUT SYRACUSE (19-13, 16-15 ATS, 17-14 O/U): The story of the game for the Orange will be defense and whether it can contain Dayton's 3-point shooting like it has for most of its opponents. Only 10 teams in the country have limited the opposition to a lower 3-point percentage than Syracuse, which held 17 teams to under 30 percent from beyond the arc this season. "I thought we could make this (NCAA Tournament) because we've got good wins," coach Jim Boeheim told the media. "This is probably the happiest I've been on Selection Sunday since I've been coaching."
ABOUT DAYTON (25-7, 13-17-1 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U): Like Syracuse, the Flyers have four players who score in double figures, led by the duo of Charles Cooke and Dyshawn Pierre. Cooke, a member of the All-Atlantic 10 first team and defensive team, averages 15.7 points and six rebounds from his guard spot, while Pierre contributes 13 points and a team-leading 8.6 rebounds per game. Head coach Archie Miller has three strong 3-point shooters in Cooke, Pierre and Scoochie Smith, who will need to convert against Syracuse's zone defense.
TRENDS:
* Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* Dayton is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Syracuse's last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 8-3 in Dayton's last 11 games overall.
No. 15 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (-18, 143.5)
Michigan State didn't earn a top seed for the NCAA Tournament like many expected, but the Spartans have done well as the No. 2 seed in their history and they'll try to continue that trend beginning Friday against No. 15 Middle Tennessee in the Midwest Region in St. Louis. Michigan State won the national title as the No. 2 seed in 1979 and advanced to the 2009 championship game seeded in the same slot.
Michigan State captured the Big Ten Tournament title with a 66-62 win Sunday against Purdue after knocking off Maryland and Ohio State in the two prior days. If the Spartans hope to win the Big Ten's first national title in 16 years, they'll need some support for Denzel Valentine, who averaged 17.3 points, nine assists and 8.7 rebounds during the conference tournament to earn the outstanding player award. Bryn Forbes needs to find his groove from long range for Michigan State, shooting 5-for-23 from 3-point distance over the last four games after shooting 26-for-40 in the previous four. Middle Tennessee will be making its second NCAA Tournament appearance in the last 27 years following its Conference USA Tournament title over the weekend.
LINE HISTORY: Michigan State opened as 17.5-point favorites and have been bet up to -18. The total has been bet up 2-points from 141.5 to 143.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (24-9, 17-15 ATS, 14-17-1 O/U): The Blue Raiders feature four players who average double figures in scoring led by 6-foot-2, 220-pound guard Giddy Potts at 15 points a game. Potts missed three games recently with a concussion, but appears to be back to full strength after averaging 15 points in the three conference tournament games and shooting 7-for-11 from 3-point range in that span. Reggie Upshaw, at 6-7, and 6-6 Perrin Buford will face a big-time size disadvantage against the Spartans and their starting front line of 6-9 Matt Costello and 6-10 Deyonta Davis.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (29-5, 22-11 ATS, 16-17 O/U): Costello is looking for a better performance in this season's tournament than what he did last year, when he averaged four points in five games in the Spartans' run to the Final Four. Costello has reached double figures in scoring in six of the last seven games leading into this tournament and contributed a season-high four blocked shots in Sunday's win against Purdue while finishing with eight points. Junior guard Eron Harris might also be a key figure in this tournament, especially if Valentine is regularly double-teamed and Forbes continues to struggle from long distance.
TRENDS:
* Middle Tennessee State is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Middle Tennessee State's last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Michigan State's last six neutral site games.