College Basketball Betting News and Notes Friday, March 27

News & Notes for Friday
By Ken Pomeroy
Nropp.com

#1 Wisconsin vs #4 North Carolina

I feel as if this matchup would be more appropriate if it was a #2 versus a #3 instead of a #1 versus a #4, but more on that in a bit. For the second straight year, the Badgers defeated Oregon in the second round and have advanced to the Sweet 16. And, just like last season, the Badgers are doing it with an offense that has performed far better than its defense. Through two games this season, the Badgers have yielded 1.07 and 1.14 points per possession, but it’s not a topic because the offense has posted totals of 1.37 and 1.18 in those same two games. The reason has been the three-point shooting and how many they’re hoisting. In the two games in the tournament, Wisconsin has attempted 62 two-pointers and whopping 50 three-pointers a big reason as to why Wisconsin enters the Sweet 16 as the tournament’s most efficient team remaining. North Carolina is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time in a few years, but they’ve done it in an entirely different manner than Wisconsin. Through their own two games in the tournament, the Tar Heels have only attempted 17 three-point shots, while getting up an astonishing 92...yes...92!....two-pointers. Thus, we it would appear we have a classic two against three in this game. Will North Carolina’s effectiveness at getting up easy two point shots be enough to overcome Wisconsin’s effectiveness of making long three’s? It’s a really tough matchup to consider because of the extra elements, but let’s take a look. If you’ve seen North Carolina play, not much has changed this year from previous seasons under Roy Williams. They want to push the tempo, they want to get as close to the rim as possible, they’re going to grab a good chunk of their misses, and the offense is usually going to put up some points because of all of this. Defensively, the Tar Heels throw out enough size and usually force opponents to shoot jumpers which is the issue here. Actually, I think the issue isn’t really the fact that they give up a ton of jumpers. The bigger issue, and I’ve brought this up time and time and time and time again, is that the guards are just so much more willing to get out and run offensively that their ability to guard and defend in the half-court has been virtually non-existent. They want to force a jumper, they want the bigs to rebound the jumper, and the transition offense is put to full use almost immediately. Case in point, herein lies the problem against Wisconsin. UNC played around 10 teams this year who really focus their offense around the three-point shot. In those 10 games, North Carolina yielded an average of 25.6 three-point attempts, which is borderline absurd. You give Wisconsin - the #1 most efficient offense in the country - that many attempts from out there, and it’s probably going to be a long night. At the same time, it’s likely what North Carolina is going to do. Forcing Wisconsin into those long shots keeps Kaminsky away from the game plan, at least down low, which in effect also keeps Kaminsky out of the paint, which in effect allows Carolina to run a bit more, but really exposes the Carolina bigs having to shade Kaminsky out front. On the flip side, where Wisconsin has given up the majority of their points also benefits North Carolina. Everything Wisconsin does from a defensive standpoint is designed upon keeping the guards in front of you and forcing them to attack, forcing them into gaps that are covered up and forcing into places where they want you to go - in essence - they don’t allow you to shoot three’s. Believe it or not, North Carolina is perfectly OK with this, and Roy’s going to make it a point to go in down low. I think this game is also more than just the 3’s versus the 2’s...it’s also a game of speed. If North Carolina can force the early jumpers, they’re doing their job, because the speed of this game will be fast, a style of play in which they benefit greatly. I really think all of the pressure is on Wisconsin in this one. They have to play slow. They have to be patient on offense, they have to work the ball down low, they have to get something going on in the interior to open up that outside game or they’re just settling. Against Oregon, they showed that patience, and they settled, and had a poor shooting night. Will that happen again? Not sure. The 3’s on one end, against the 2’s on the other. The team that wants to play fast and has to play fast for success, against the team that wants to play slow and likely needs to keep this one slow to succeed. These games are tough to project, but offer a good amount of entertainment value. Side note: Meeks is semi-important in this game, if not for having his rebounding and defensive ability down low, then just for the simple fact that it gives Roy another body to throw at Kaminsky.

Zzzzinger: North Carolina averaged 1.17 points per possession this year on teams who fall in the bottom half of the country in forcing turnovers, where Wisconsin ranks #317.

#4 Louisville vs #8 NC State

NC State’s found itself back in the Sweet 16 after a more than convincing victory over Villanova on Saturday, which came just two days after a winning bucket at the buzzer over LSU. Will the momentum carry through for another weekend? That’s the tricky part with NC State as we’ve seen this season. The team gets key non-conference wins over Richmond and Boise State, then throws up a few duds against Purdue and Wofford. Losses to Clemson, Wake Forest and Boston College followed and then the team got hot, beating the likes of Louisville, UNC, and Syracuse towards the end of the season. Then, a 53 point showing against Duke in the ACC Tournament followed. The Wolfpack have been about as inconsistent as any team that remains in the field of 16, which is the hard part of trying to project where this team moves forward. Louisville pretty much shocked the world on Sunday with an easy victory over Northern Iowa, and while it wasn’t a shock to some, the manner in which they did it - primarily on the offensive side of the ball - probably was. Snider and Rozier could get into the lane and make a play whenever they wanted, while Blackshear knocked down some shots, and Harrell wasn’t going to be denied. Combine that with a defense that’s been as good as any team in the country over the course of the past month, and it would appear that the Cardinals have gotten past the dismissal of Chris Jones. The Sweet 16 is usually a good time for the Cardinals and Pitino. Over the course of his career, Pitino’s a scintillating 12-1 in the round of 16 games, with the only loss coming last year to rival Kentucky. And that’s not all - check out the Zzzinger for another Pitino trend (or two..or three). In terms of scheme, I think you’ll see both teams struggle with the defenses they’re up against. Was Louisville’s offensive performance (1.20 points per possession - their best output in the past two months) a sign of the tide turning, or a sign of Louisville’s quickness against the UNI guards? I’d like to think the latter. What you’ve seen with NC State’s defense over the course of the past month, is that Gottfried has really changed things up. He’s put a heavier emphasis on his defense starting down low, and he’s done a really good job of forcing teams to penetrate against those bigs where it’s really tough to score on them. It’s the primary reason they beat Louisville earlier this year on the road, and was the single most important factor in their revenge win over Carolina the second time towards the end of the year. If you get some time, go back and watch the first game versus Louisville this year. It’s as if the NC State guards are almost baiting Jones and Rozier to drive into the paint b/c they know what’s behind them helping. The outside-in philosophy has stifled teams for the course of the past month, aside from Boston College and Duke who were able to knock down some jumpers and deem the outside-in useless. Of course, Louisville could still knock down some shots as they did versus UNI, but the inside comparison still favors the defense of NC State. Offensively for NC State, there is quite a bit to like. They have enough balance to catch fire as they have over the past month, but they’ll also go spurts without scoring. The roster is put together for players to fill their roles, but it’s what also causes this team to struggle at times. Barber and Lacey love to attack, but you have a couple big bodies down low that take up space which makes it hard to attack. The three-point shot has been their friend at times, but it’s also been their enemy when they settle. From a pressure standpoint, I think they’ll be OK against the Louisville guards, but I would expect the Wolfpack to see some zone in this contest, too.

Zzzzinger: Rick Pitino is 96-31 with at least five days to prepare. Rick Pitino is 17-9 with in-season revenge....and 20-5-1ATS with in-season revenge (9-2 ATS when those scenarios occur in the conference tournament or NCAA Tournament)....and 17 of the 26 revenge situations have occurred on the road or at neutral sites.

#11 UCLA vs #2 Gonzaga

Think of it as Hollywood. A team that probably shouldn’t have been included in the NCAA Tournament not only is given a berth, but upsets #6 seed SMU in their opener. Not only do they just upset them, but they do so by shooting an air ball in the final seconds of the game, an airball that was called a goal tend. They win their next game in convincing fashion, posting one of their better offensive games of the year, and then they carry that momentum to go on to win the NCAA Championship. I’m talking about UCLA of course. It’d be a great movie, even without the improbable ending, but it’s how they’ve gotten to this point and it’s the type of team they’ve been all year. They’re fast, they’re going to let you shoot jumpers - it just so happens the two teams they’ve drawn thus far just aren’t any good at shooting them - and they’re going to force their size upon you offensively and make you pay. Granted, it hasn’t worked much this year until lately. Gonzaga, oh Gonzaga. I think for the most part, everyone expected them to be in this position, with two wins over North Dakota State and Iowa. But in the manner in which they played those games has really opened up the door for some discussion, primarily because of the defense. It’s as if the last game of the year when they lost to BYU, the defense totally changed course. Gonzaga took the court with the mentality of we’re going to outscore you and not worry about defending, and in the conference tournament and the postseason now, it’s still that way. I’m not sure what changed, or why a loss to BYU to close the season would change it, but it has changed. For Gonzaga’s sake, I hope they worked on it with the little break they’ve gotten here. I praised them all year for the most part because of the defense. Let’s face it, we all know Gonzaga can score. Mark Few’s made Gonzaga who they are because they can put the ball in the basket in a number of different ways and have been for the past decade. I’d always shied away from Gonzaga in past years because of the defense, primarily at the guard spots. They were soft, often smaller, often weaker than most opponents. This year was different. Pangos was more active. Bell was more active and physical. Wesley was more active and the size and strength they rolled out at the 3/4 positions was just different than most years. For four months this year, that was the case, and the results - even in the loss to Arizona in OT, it showed that this year was going to be different. Then March comes and the defense is gone. It’s a thing of concern, particularly in a region filled with offensive juggernauts. When and how if Gonzaga loses will probably be a direct result of them simply being outscored at the guard positions. Will that be versus UCLA? I don’t think so. I do think UCLA has some advantages on the offensive side of things, and playing to their speed of play only helps that, but this game really just comes down to the Gonzaga offense and how well they can score, and the vast amounts of options and ways they can score against the zone and all of these different defenses Alford’s been trotting out. He’s gone man-to-man - of which he’s hated because it’s slowed down his offense and the pace of games...which doesn’t make sense on paper if you read that, but here’s his theory...he wants a fast tempo. Against his zone, teams take fast shots. Against his man, teams work the ball more. Fast shots, whether they go in or not, get UCLA the tempo they want to play at. He’s also used some full-court press, some half-court traps, another 3-2 or 1-2-2 type zones and they all revolve around him forcing tempo and him forcing pace. If you watched the first meeting this year, which was a home game against Gonzaga, UCLA pretty much played zone for the entirety of the game. The result was an OE of 1.26 for Gonzaga with the scoreboard reading an 87-74 Zags win. This was normal, and has been normal for Gonzaga teams against any style of zone they have played for years now. As UCLA’s played more this year (that was early on in season), UCLA’s gotten more experience from their younger guys and they’ve adapted into all of these mixing styles and constant switching of defenses. What it’s really done for UCLA has helped out the interior. It’s made them more physical, and it’s given them more options in terms of personnel and more options against teams who do most of their scoring down low. This doesn’t really help with Gonzaga, a team who brings their bigs out (primarily Wiltjer) and can force UCLA to defend out top. It’s a really interesting game and really just boils down to how each coach handles in-game adjustments. Gonzaga has an advantage on the perimeter regardless of what defense, which probably gives them the upper hand. It just seems like a game where both teams are probably going to make extended runs, and a game that sees quite a bit of scoring given the styles that take the floor.

Zzzzinger: Gonzaga posted an offensive efficiency of 1.27 against primary-zone teams they faced this season.

#7 Michigan State vs #3 Oklahoma

Izzo did the unthinkable and has vaulted the Spartans of Michigan State back into the Sweet 16. While unthinkable is probably the wrong word, they didn’t have all that easy of a road to get to this point having to play Georgia and Virginia with weird matchups and different styles of play in those games. They won both games with their physicality and some clutch outside shooting. Oklahoma is back into the Sweet 16, the fourth time Kruger’s taken a different team to the Sweet 16 in his career. Neither of their opening weekend games were pretty, but you saw flashes of why they’ve advanced this far. Both games had their own little mini-stretches where everything came together, where they kept battling and battling and their athleticism won out. March or no March, what really concerns me about the Spartans in this game is the style of play and the athleticism they’re up against is really something they haven’t seen much of this season. When you think about Michigan State in the month of March the past few years, you always know you’re going to get a team that rebounds well, hits timely shots, and all-in-all, executes the game plan to perfection. Doing that against this year’s Oklahoma team gets to be a bit tricky. For starters, if you look at Michigan State’s rise over the course of the past month, a lot of it can be accredited to getting Dawson fully healthy in combination of controlling the glass. Can you do that on Oklahoma and their transition game? It’s a slippery slope, because if you send all of these bigs to the glass on offense, you’re giving up points on the other end against the Sooners. Secondly, Oklahoma is so diverse and so athletic. When you really break it down, they’re the type of team that mirrors a Michigan State of the past. Quick and athletic bigs, tall and lengthy guards built for transition basketball and with that defensive-first mentality. This year, Michigan State’s a bit more physical, and I pointed it out during the course of the year, but the offense is at their best when they can utilize that physicality and score down low. It opens up so much more for Trice and Valentine and everyone else on the outside. When they can’t get that interior game going from the start, they become a bit one-dimensional and a pretty easy team to guard on the perimeter. Against Oklahoma, I’m not sure they can get that interior team going. They’ve been stout on the inside all year long, largely because Thomas and Spangler are built to play many different styles. They can stick down low, or they can come out and defend, which has been most teams problems in stopping Michigan State as of late. These teams are pretty even in roster makeup, and what they want to do, but Oklahoma gets the nod playing to their style, and having the better defensive makeup which I think limits Michigan State with what they want to do offensively - especially if Izzo limits his guys crashing the glass, which I think he’ll do to an extent to protect the transition game - something they just don’t see much of in the Big Ten. Taking the finesse over the physical in this one.

Zzzzinger: Michigan State’s offensive efficiency against top 100 2P% Defenses not named Northwestern this year was 1.02 (Can’t get anything going on the inside, rely on the three-pointer, and shot just 76/221 in these games from beyond the arc).

#1 Duke vs #4 Utah

There has been very little coverage on this game, really, which is a bit surprising, but perhaps it is because everyone knew this was the matchup that we were most likely to see at this point in the Sweet 16. On the Duke side of things, you have an offense that has carried it to this point, or have they? The defense has all of a sudden stepped up, too, yielding just 0.89 and 0.80 points per possession in their first two games of the tournament. Granted, they didn’t play the most talented of offensive teams to get to this point, hence why the defense has looked so good thus far. I think everyone expected Utah in this position, too. They rid a feisty Stephen F Austin team, then handled Georgetown pretty easy to get to this point. In terms of how this game will go, I think both teams have their advantages and I think both teams advantages sort of cross out what the other team is looking to do. If you’ve seen Utah over the course of the past month before entering the tournament, you’ve seen a team that struggled on offense. They struggled on offense because they fell in love with the three. A team that took advantage of mismatches and found their niche in other areas of the ball game just took the court thinking they could out-shoot their opponent. In their first two games of the tournament, they have not done that. Krystkowiak has made it a point for Utah to focus on the game plan, to hammer the ball down low, so that it opens up the perimeter. In essence, they’ve reverted back to “old” Utah pretty quickly. It’s essential that they continue that against Duke, a team that is going to aim at chasing the guards off the perimeter, and a team that is going to limit those three-point attempts. As I’ve said all season, Duke’s been vulnerable to be beaten on the inside. Nearly every team they’ve faced that has made it a point to hammer the ball inside has found success on them just because they’re not the best of defenders on the interior. This is probably the #1 key to this game, because I think you’re going to see a Utah team that attacks, pounds, attacks some more, and pounds the ball inside some more and Krystkowiak will make it a point until Duke is forced to change, where then it opens the outside. Duke on the other hand, well, they’ve been tough to stop. I thought they’d struggle against San Diego State’s double-teams on Okafor which comes from the other post-position - something they struggled with all year, but I think SDSU made it such a point to double and triple from anywhere they left some shooters and were really doomed from the start. Obviously, in beating Duke, you really have to keep up with them from a scoring standpoint, and I think Utah can do just that because of a few matchup nightmares. Simply put, Duke doesn’t have anyone that matchups up with Delon Wright at all. Outside, inside, the attacking game, the athleticism...just not a player on Duke’s roster that’s built for it. Maybe Winslow, but in the occurrences where Wright’s out on the wing, it opens up the painted area for Poeltl to go to work even more. Krystkowiak will not be afraid to go to plenty of iso sets that involved both Wright and Poeltl on the same side of the court, and Duke is almost certainly going to have to adjust (likely over-adjust) to some magnitude to defend it. Don’t get me wrong, Duke’s offense has carried them all year and for good measure - they’re one of, if not the best offense, remaining in the tournament...but this is going to have to be a game where they defend, and do so at a high level to advance. Utah’s size, and their ability to take away that three-ball and have a big down low to somewhat slow down Okafor in a slow setting should give Utah the advantages it needs to keep playing. Duke’s vulnerability really shows up in this one. They’re not the best of teams defending the iso-attacks (see: losses to Notre Dame), and then they over-adjust and the flood gates open for the other team to hit some jumpers. Poeltl and Bachynski staying out of foul trouble is semi-important, too.

Zzzzinger: Duke allowed 1.06 points per possession on teams ranking top 100 in 2P FG% Offense.

Friday's NCAAB Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-8.5, 145.5)

The Bruins have won six of their last seven games with the only defeat in that stretch coming in a tight setback against Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals. Their first two wins in the Big Dance have proven that UCLA can win with defense (60-59 versus SMU) and with offense (92-75 against UAB), while Bryce Alford has been a constant in both games, averaging 24.5 points on 12-of-16 3-point shooting. “People are going to say whatever they want,” said Alford, who averages 15.6 points, second on the team to Norman Powell (16.4). “But when you look back on it, we’ve been in the Sweet 16 last year, and we’re there again this year. That doesn’t just happen. You’ve got to win big games to do that.”

The Bulldogs are the nation's best shooting team (52.4 percent) and also rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring (79.1, 10th) and assists (16.5, sixth). “It’s without a doubt the best offensive team I’ve ever been associated with,” said coach Mark Few, whose team is led in scoring by Wiltjer (17.1 points) and Kevin Pangos (11.8). “The firepower, the versatility, the ability to share the ball.” Wiltjer is 12-of-17 from 3-point range in his last four games, while Pangos is 12-of-22 from the arc during that span.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Gonzaga at anywhere form -9.5 to -8.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five overall.
* Bruins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. West Coast.
* Over is 9-4 in Bruins last 13 NCAA Tournament games.

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3, 130)

The Wolfpack received clutch play from two young forwards in the upset of Villanova, getting double-doubles from freshman Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and sophomore Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds), more than doubling their season averages in each category. “They were relentless rebounding the basketball; that was the difference for us offensively,” N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried told The News & Observer. Anthony Barber (12.3 points, 3.7 assists), who Pitino credited for “dominating the game” after scoring 21 points in the first meeting, is averaging 15.8 points over his last 13 contests after failing to reach 16 in all but three of his first 21 games.

Freshman Quentin Snider (3.8 points) has replaced suspended senior guard Chris Jones in the starting lineup and averaged 13 points and 4.5 rebounds during the Cardinals’ two NCAA Tournament wins. “I don't know what we expected from Quentin Snider; we didn't expect this, to be honest with you. He doesn't get nervous at all, he's a cool customer … and he's gotten a lot better defensively,” Pitino said after the Northern Iowa victory. Leading scorers Terry Rozier (17.2 points) and Montrezl Harrell (15.4) were held to seven points apiece on Feb. 14 – the only game this season in which both players were held to single figures.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Louisville either -2 or -2.5.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Cardinals last 14 overall.

Utah Utes vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5.5, 133.5)

The Utes got past Georgetown 75-64 their last time out as four players scored in double figures, led by gritty point guard Brandon Taylor, who went 4-of-8 from 3-point range en route to 14 points. “He can knock it down. He is really good," said Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, whose other compliments included "Wright is one of the top guards in the country" and Poeltl "is a really good player and he is going to be a big-time pro." Dakarai Tucker has given Utah a boost off the bench in this event, totaling 20 points on 60 percent shooting in the last two rounds.

The Blue Devils are 14-1 in their last 15 games and have held five of their last seven opponents below 57 points, although their overall defensive ranking still sits at 131st nationally. Freshman wing Justise Winslow, a Houston native, has been overshadowed by Okafor all season, although his numbers in this tournament - 9.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, six assists, two steals, two blocks - have provided a huge boost. "It’s big," Cook told reporters after Winslow's terrific all-around effort in the round of 32 win against San Diego State. "I know (Winslow)’s going to see all his family - all his family is going to be there. It’s just great to move onto the next round. I know one of his goals was to get to a Final Four, so we got (to Houston), where we can complete it."

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Blue Devils as 5-point favorites.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in Blue Devils last four overall.
* Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+2, 134.5)

The Spartans, who have won 10 of their last 13 games with two of the losses coming against No. 1 West seed Wisconsin, held Georgia and Virginia to 31.6 percent shooting from the field and 19.4 percent from 3-point range. Branden Dawson, a 6-6 senior swingman, is averaging 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in the tournament while senior guard and leading scorer Travis Trice (15 points per game) scored 23 versus Virginia and 15 against Georgia. Michigan State, which has led for more than 76 minutes in its two NCAA games, must improve from the free-throw line as it has converted 31-of-52 in the tournament.

Lon Kruger has utilized the same starting lineup in every game this season with junior guard Buddy Hield - the Big 12 Player of the Year - leading the way at 17.3 points per game after scoring 15 in each of the Sooners' two NCAA contests. The Sooners also possess a pair of threats down low in senior forward TaShawn Thomas (11.4 points, 6.5 rebounds) and junior forward Ryan Spangler (9.9, 8.2), who grabbed 23 boards in the last two contests. Oklahoma, which is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009, has 423 assists against 412 turnovers in 34 games - compared to 607 and 410 in 36 contests for Michigan State.

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners opened anywhere from 1-point faves to +2.5.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Sooners last eight neutral site games.

Friday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

N.C. STATE WOLFPACK (22-13) vs. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (26-8)

Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:37 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -3.0

In an ACC rematch from mid-February, the stakes are higher as Louisville looks for revenge against North Carolina State and a spot in the Elite Eight.

Upstart No. 8 seed North Carolina State is fresh off being the first team in 2015 to drop a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (71-68 on Saturday against Villanova). The Wolfpack were +9.5, but are no strangers to winning SU as heavy underdogs, as you can just ask their Sweet 16 opponents, Louisville, about that. On Feb. 14 these new ACC foes met for the first time in-conference with Louisville as a 10.5-point home favorite only to watch North Carolina State pull off a 74-65 road win. The Cardinals get their shot at redemption against the Wolfpack after a sluggish win over No. 13 seed UC Irvine (57-55) and then a win as 2.5-point underdogs over Northern Iowa (66-53) on Sunday.

Louisville comes into this contest really struggling to cover (3-7 ATS) over their past 10 games. This will also mark the seventh game (eighth game overall) that Louisville plays without dismissed G Chris Jones (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS without Jones). This will be the third time that Louisville will have a “rematch game” (versus a team they lost to) and they won-and-covered both previous instances (Virginia, North Carolina) in the regular season. Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried is 9-10 overall in NCAA Tournament play between his career at Murray State, Alabama and North Carolina State (4-3 with the Wolfpack). Louisville coach Rick Pitino’s NCAA Tournament success is well documented as the only collegiate coach in history to take three different schools to a Final Four. A two-time national champion (Kentucky, Louisville), Pitino’s Cardinals are looking to avoid losing in the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.

In the Valentine’s Day victory at Louisville, North Carolina State was led by its backcourt’s contribution of 45 points combined. Led by G Anthony “Cat” Barber (12.3 PPG, 3.7 APG) who scored 21 of those 45 points (10-for-13 at the free throw line) and supported by G Trevor Lacey (15.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 3PM/G) who had 14 points and senior G Ralston Turner (12.8 PPG, 2.6 3PM/G) who chipped in 10 points, the Wolfpack guards did their part on offense while holding Louisville stars Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to a combined 14 points, while also getting Rozier to foul out in 28 minutes.

The North Carolina State big men also did their part, leading the Wolfpack to a +10 margin on the glass (47-37). C Beejay Anya (4.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 19.3 MPG) contributed eight points, 10 boards and three blocks in the win, while staying on the court for 28 minutes. Anya, who you’ll remember hit the game-winning shot against LSU in the round of 64 to keep the Wolfpack alive in this tournament, is extremely foul prone, but must stay on the floor to battle Louisville’s size. North Carolina State is 6-1 when Anya plays 25+ minutes.

Another young, foul-prone Wolfpack big man, freshman F Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 PPG) has also proven himself integral to North Carolina State’s recent success, as he’s scored double-figures in his past three games. Bruising sophomore F Leonard Freeman (3.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) rounds out the frontcourt, and was a key part in the Wolfpack’s upset over Villanova on Saturday while collecting a double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds). Another win over the Cardinals, though, will begin and end with the Wolfpack’s backcourt taking care of the ball, as Barber, Lacey and Turner only turned it over four times in the first meeting against Louisville’s vaunted defense. North Carolina State only commits 10.5 turnovers per game (22nd in NCAA) which bodes well for repeat success.

The Cardinals seem to have finally found their footing playing without the aforementioned Jones, even though creating easy offense continues to be a problem (61.0 PPG in eight games without Jones). As much as Coach Pitino’s style is a frenetic, pressing, quick-shooting team, this season’s version (at least on offense) is anything but, as both tournament wins over UC Irvine and Northern Iowa have seen Louisville with efficient but very slow-paced offense (57 and 54 possessions, respectively). Part of that had to do with their opponent, but some of it seems to be Pitino playing to his personnel. The Cardinals executed well to the tune of 46% from the field against Northern Iowa and capitalized from the free throw line (17-for-21).

No player came up bigger in the round of 32 than G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2 SPG) who put up his most efficient and effective outing since shouldering more of the scoring load with Jones’ departure (25 points, five rebounds, seven assists, 8-for-13 FG, 8-for-9 FT). Rozier can ill-afford a repeat performance of fouling out with single-digits as he did in the first meeting against the Wolfpack. Jones scored 19 points in that loss to keep Louisville afloat, but the Cardinals obviously don’t have that same depth in the backcourt to fall back on. G Quentin Snider (3.8 PPG) has been steady as the new starter flanking Rozier, scoring double-figures in five of his eight starts, including back-to-back games (on 10-for-20 FG) during the NCAA Tournament. Snider isn’t, however, the havoc-inducing defensive force that the departed Jones was in the open floor.

F Montrezl Harrell (15.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 57% FG) leads the Louisville frontcourt, but is struggling (by his standards) after entering tournament play with three straight double-doubles. Harrell has only grabbed 10 rebounds total in two NCAA games, while scoring just 22 total points. An increase in pace against an average Wolfpack defense could cure what ails him, although Harrell only went 1-for-5 from the field for seven points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting. F Wayne Blackshear (11.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM/G) is the lone senior on the team and is shooting the ball with confidence from deep over his past three games (7-for-16). Given an opening, Blackshear isn’t shy (19 points on 20 shots in the first round win over UC Irvine), and he enjoyed success in the first meeting versus the Wolfpack (19 points on 7-for-10 from the field, 4-for-6 from three).

UCLA BRUINS (22-13) vs. GONZAGA BULLDOGS (34-2)

NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Gonzaga -8.5

UCLA and Gonzaga meet for a second time this season on Friday, but this time a spot in the Elite Eight is on the line.

UCLA has been extremely hot lately, winning six of its past seven games SU and covering in four straight. The team faced UAB last round and won 92-75 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Bruins shot 60.3% from the field in that game and also won the rebounding battle 41-26. Gonzaga, meanwhile, won its fifth straight game in an 87-68 victory over Iowa as a 6-point favorite last round. Over the past three games, the Bulldogs are averaging an outrageous 88.0 PPG. These two teams met at Pauley Pavilion on Dec. 13, 2014, when the Bulldogs won 87-74 as 7.5-point favorites. Gonzaga shot 58.5% from the floor in that game and won the rebounding battle 34-30.

The Bulldogs are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS when facing the Bruins since 1997 and will look to continue that strong play in this head-to-head series on Friday. UCLA is 6-0 ATS after a game where it made 50% of its threes or better this season. It is also 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 75 or more points over the past two seasons. Gonzaga, meanwhile, is 28-14 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games since 1997. UCLA comes into this game at full strength, but Gonzaga continues to be without Josh Perkins (Jaw) indefinitely.

UCLA has really played well recently, but the team now faces a whole different animal in Gonzaga. The Bruins have been a very good team offensively this season, averaging 72.0 PPG (62nd in NCAA) on 44.1% shooting (135th in NCAA). The problem with UCLA is that it has allowed 68.0 PPG (215th in NCAA) this season. The team will need to get creative in order to find ways to stop the Bulldogs Friday. G Bryce Alford (15.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1,0 SPG) should be more than ready to play in this one. Alford is averaging 24.5 PPG in the tournament so far and has gone a ridiculous 12-for-16 from the outside in those two games. He is an excellent shooter and also knows when to get his teammates involved. The last time he faced Gonzaga, Alford had 23 points, three assists and three steals. He’ll need to play well in his matchup with Kevin Pangos in this one.

Gs Isaac Hamilton (10.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) and Norman Powell (16.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) will also need to be productive in this backcourt. Hamilton provided a huge spark against UAB last round, racking up 13 points, seven assists and four boards in 37 minutes. He had 18 points the last time he faced the Bulldogs and will need to make a similar impact Friday. Powell, meanwhile, is averaging 17.0 PPG in the tournament and knows how to attack the basket with the best of them. He had 12 points in 35 minutes against Gonzaga in their last meeting and will need to continue to drive the ball towards the rim and try to draw fouls on the Bulldogs’ monstrous frontcourt.

F Kevin Looney (11.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.3 SPG) had 14 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals the last time he faced Gonzaga. He is very long and athletic and must use that to his advantage on Friday. C Tony Parker (11.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) had a dominant performance last round, putting up 28 points, 12 boards and three blocks against UAB. He had just five points the last time he faced Gonzaga though and must find a way to avoid foul trouble against a much bigger player in Przemek Karnowski.

Gonzaga has been absolutely dominant on offense this season, putting up 79.1 PPG (10th in NCAA) on 52.4% shooting (1st in NCAA). The Bulldogs rebound the ball well (37.9 RPG, 30th in NCAA) and also are willing to share offensively (16.5 APG, 6th in NCAA). Defensively they are allowing just 61.5 PPG (50th in NCAA), but they can get careless at times and really let their opponents go off. G Kevin Pangos (11.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG) is the heart and soul of this Gonzaga team. Pangos is an unbelievable shooter (45% 3PT) and rarely turns the ball over (1.3 TOPG). He did, however, have just nine points (3-for-9 FG, 1-for-6 3PT) the last time he faced UCLA and can’t afford to do that again here.

F Kyle Wiltjer (17.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.9 APG) is another ridiculous outside shooter (48% 3PT) for the Bulldogs. He’s averaging 23.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in two tournament games so far and had 24 points the last time he faced UCLA. Wiltjer will need to stretch the floor against the Bruins. G Gary Bell Jr. (8.4 PPG) is an experienced member of this backcourt. He’s averaging 11.5 PPG in two tournament games so far and will need to come through in stretches when his team is cold. He has hit timely shots throughout the course of his career and will need to continue to do so with this much on the line. C Przemek Karnowski (10.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and F Domantas Sabonis (9.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) will need to control the paint in this game. Tony Parker was hot for UCLA last round and the Bulldogs can’t let him play like that Friday. They’ll need to play well defensively and also draw fouls when they get in the paint on offense.

UTAH UTES (26-8) vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (31-4)

NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -5.5

A clash of styles highlights No. 1 seed Duke taking on No. 5 seed Utah for the right to move on to the Elite Eight.

The Duke Blue Devils and their high-powered offense will look to keep pushing the pace when they face off against Utah and the Utes’ stingy defense and grind-it-out style on Friday night. Duke was able to overpower a similarly-profiled foe, No. 8 seed San Diego State, on Saturday to the tune of a 68-49 win. The Blue Devils shot 55% in the win. Duke is 14-1 SU (10-5 ATS) over its past 15 games, including an opening round 85-56 win-and-cover over No. 16 seeded Robert Morris. Utah defeated trendy upset pick, No. 12 seed Stephen F. Austin (57-50) in the opening round, and then dismissed No. 4 seed Georgetown 75-64 on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Utes shot 58% from the field (8-for-14 from three) and had four players in double-figures in the Georgetown win.

Utah is 6-4 SU (4-5-1 ATS) in its past 10 games. Utah lost to San Diego State (Duke and Utah’s only common opponent) 53-49 in mid-November to start out its season. Overall against non-conference NCAA tournament teams, Utah is 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS) but the Utes were just 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) versus the Pac-12’s other three NCAA tournament teams. Duke was 2-0 SU (2-0) ATS in non-conference games versus NCAA teams and 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) versus ACC foes that made the NCAA tournament. This is the other Coach K’s (Utes’ coach Larry Krystowiak’s) first NCAA appearance with the Utes (Krystowiak was 1-2 in the NCAA tournament as head coach of Montana). Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is the winningest men’s basketball coach in division 1 history, and he’s won 82 NCAA tournament games. Recently, however, Coach K has overseen two early-round exits for his Blue Devils in the past three seasons. Duke has made the Elite Eight once since 2010. Utes G Kenneth Ogbe (groin) (4.5 PPG) has missed the past seven games and is questionable for Friday night.

Utah boasts the 11th best scoring defense in the nation (56.9 PPG) and the 8th best field goal defense in the nation (38.3% FG), both tops in the Pac-12. These gaudy numbers will be put to the test like never before against Duke’s talented, multi-faceted offense. Utah is 0-4 when allowing teams to shoot above 46% from the field (Duke shoots 50.7% FG). That said, Duke is vulnerable on defense. In the five times Duke has allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, it is 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) with the lone win being a 91-86 overtime squeaker over ACC doormat, Virginia Tech. Utah has been able to shoot 50% or better in four of its past eight games and, like Duke, is a top-10 offense from the field (48.7% FG, 8th in NCAA).

The Utes are led by do-everything senior G Delon Wright (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 2.1 SPG, 53% FG). Wright, as a 6-foot-6 point guard, can easily see over the defense to help Utah get easy buckets. His size and athleticism could prove problematic for Duke’s smaller backcourt. Aiding Wright are juniors, G Brandon Taylor (10.7 PPG, 44% 3PT, 2.3 3PM) and F Jordan Loveridge (10.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 3PM) have started every game for the Utes in their rise from the bottom of the Pac-12 to the Sweet 16. Taylor is coming off of a 14-point performance (4-for-8 from three) versus Georgetown, while Loveridge has scored double-figures in six of his past seven contests.

In seven-foot freshman C Jakob Poeltl (8.7 PPG, 6.9 PPG, 1.7 BPG) Utah will finally be able to offer a like-sized counterpart for Duke’s standout freshman center, Jahlil Okafor. If Poeltl can stay on the floor and force someone else from the Blue Devils to beat Utah from the perimeter, it would greatly enhance Utah’s chances of pulling the upset. To his credit, Poeltl has played fantastic on offense in Utah’s two tournament wins, having only missed one shot (12-for13 FG) for 30 total points. Foul trouble limited Poeltl to 18 minutes in the Georgetown win, however.

Duke’s offense is, at this point, a well-oiled machine. Its aforementioned 50.9% from the field is good for 2nd overall in the nation. Even Duke’s “off nights” from the field are solid, as it has played an astounding 19 straight games shooting 45% or better from the field. Duke's scoring offense, at 80.4 PPG (4th in NCAA) is impressive, but it doesn’t mean the team has to run-and-gun to win. As shown in the Blue Devils’ blowout win over San Diego State, Duke was able to grind out a 68-49 win with offensive efficiency (54.5% FG, 43% 3PT) against an opponent who – similarly to Utah – struggles to score at times. Utah is content to let their opponents grind out possessions, so expect Duke to be aggressive looking to make the extra pass and find standout C Jahlil Okafor (17.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 67% FG).

Utah is a much different defensive team without its own freshman seven-footer, Jakob Poeltl, on the floor, and Okafor is more than capable of getting Poeltl in foul trouble. Okafor has scored 21 and 26 points respectively in his two tournament games. Fellow freshman F Justise Winslow (12.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has been a stat-sheet-stuffer in his two tournament games, averaging 11.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. Don’t be surprised if coach Krzyzewski has Winslow keeping one eye on Utah’s Delon Wright at all times. Gs Tyus Jones (11.6 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Quinn Cook (15.7 PPG, 40% 3PT, 2.8 3PM) round out the firepower for Duke’s offense, as Cook has scored 37 points over his two tournament games (9-for-18 from long distance). Jones has been steady-yet-unspectacular, with 13 assists to only three turnovers, but is capable of popping off for big scoring games when the situation calls for it (see two 20+ point outings versus North Carolina).

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (25-11) vs. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (24-10)

Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -2.0

Michigan State looks to pull off another upset when it plays Oklahoma for a spot in the Elite Eight Friday.

Michigan State faced Virginia in its last game and won 60-54 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Spartans have now won-and-covered in two straight games, allowing just 58.5 PPG in those contests. This team knows how to win games in March and will now look for yet another big win in order to advance in this tournament. Oklahoma is not going to roll over and give it to them though. The Sooners beat Dayton 72-66 as 4-point favorites last round and have now won seven of their past nine games SU. This team has been excellent defensively as well, allowing just 60.5 PPG over the past four games.

These teams last met on Nov. 23, 2013, when Michigan State beat Oklahoma 87-76 as an 11.5-point home favorite. Since 1997, the Spartans are 3-2 SU but just 2-3 ATS against the Sooners, but the meeting in 2013 was their only one in the past three seasons. Michigan State is 13-6 ATS after having won two of its past three games this season. The team is also 13-4 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the past three seasons. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover eight or more of its past 10 games since 1997. F Javon Bess (Foot) is out for the season for Michigan State and Oklahoma is not currently dealing with any significant injuries.

Michigan State has been an extremely tough team to play against on both ends of the floor. The Spartans are scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 47.1% shooting (32nd NCAA) and allowing just 63.1 PPG (85th in NCAA) this season. The team knows how to move the ball (17.1 APG, 4th in NCAA) and is also very good on the glass (37.7 RPG, 36th in NCAA). G Denzel Valentine (14.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.4 APG) is this team’s most important player, and he was fortunate that his team bailed him out against Virginia. Valentine was awful in that game, scoring just four points (1-for-6 FG) with some awful shooting percentages and he also racked up four personal fouls. He’ll need to find his stroke against Oklahoma and he also has to find a way to stay on the court by playing disciplined defense.

G Travis Trice (15.0 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is really the reason this team was able to advance. Trice caught fire against the Cavaliers last round, finishing with 23 points (7-for-15 FG, 4-for-8 3PT, 5-for-6 3PT) in 39 minutes of action. Trice will need to continue to knock down outside shoots, which is something he has done all season (37% 3PT). He must also find his teammates when he can’t create for himself, as he is one of the best passers on this Michigan State roster. F Branden Dawson (12.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.6 BPG) is this team’s toughest player inside. Dawson came up huge against Virginia last round, scoring 15 points and also adding nine rebounds and four blocks in 34 minutes of action. He’ll need to continue to protect the rim and finish around the basket for the Spartans.

Oklahoma’s numbers were very comparable to Michigan State’s this season, averaging 71.9 PPG (65th in NCAA) on 43.6% shooting (167th in NCAA) and allowing just 62.8 PPG (74th in NCAA). This team is also very tough on the glass, averaging 38.1 RPG (23rd in NCAA) and 27.1 of those come on the defensive end (5th in NCAA). G Buddy Hield (17.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG) is this team’s best offensive player. Hield is averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament so far, but he is shooting just 34.5% from the field in those two games. He is a good outside shooter (36% 3PT) and must start shooting more accurately, as he can’t afford to shoot his team out of games. G Jordan Woodard (9.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG) played one of his best games of the season against Dayton last round, finishing with 16 points, four steals and three assists in 35 minutes of action. He is the best passer that the Sooners have and if he is scoring like that then this team will be very tough to beat.

Isaiah Cousins (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.3 SPG) is another extremely productive player in this backcourt, but he is averaging just 7.5 PPG in the tournament so far. Cousins will need to be at his best against Michigan State and that would mean he breaks through and finally hits double digits this round. Fs Ryan Spangler (9.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG) and TaShawn Thomas (11.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG) combined for 21 rebounds in the game against Dayton. They did, however, score just 15 combined points and will need to be much better offensively. These guys are both counted on to reach double digits and they’ll need to play well against this Michigan State frontcourt.

Check out more NCAA Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Sweet 16 - East Regional
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

Winning the East Region of this season’s men’s NCAA Tournament became a wide-open affair once both No. 1 Villanova and No. 2 Virginia made early exits, so now it is up to the four remaining teams to stay hot with a trip to the Final Four. The first step in the process is two region semifinal matchups on this Friday night’s slate.

Odds to win East Regional - Sportsbook.ag

Michigan State 8/5
Oklahoma 11/4
Louisville 14/5
North Carolina State 18/1

No. 8 North Carolina State vs. Louisville Cardinals

Venue: Carrier Dome
Location: Syracuse, NY
Betting Odds: Louisville -3, Total 130

The Wolfpack closed as 10-point underdogs in last Saturday’s third round matchup against Villanova, but they were clearly the better team that night in a 71-68 victory to propel them into the Sweet 16. They started this tournament with a tight 66-65 victory against No. 9 LSU as two-point favorites. NC State is 5-1 straight-up in its last six games with a 4-2 record against the spread.

Four of five starters scored in double figures in the win over Villanova and the Wolfpack dominated the boards by outrebounding the Wildcats 45-32. They shot 45.3 percent from the field, but they were just 3-for-11 from three-point range. On the year, NC State is averaging 70.4 points per game and it is hitting 43.7 percent of its shots from the floor. It is averaging 37.8 rebounds a game.

Louisville went 12-6 SU in its first season in the ACC and it capped things off with a thrilling 59-57 victory over Virginia in the conference tournament semifinals as a three-point underdog. The Cardinals squeezed-pact No. 13 UC Irvine in their NCAA Tournament opener as 8½-point favorites, but they won with authority their next time out as 2½-point underdogs in a 66-53 upset of No. 5 Northern Iowa. Louisville is still just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.

The hot hands for the Cardinals in this tournament have been senior guard/forward Wayne Blackshear and sophomore guard Terry Rozier. Blackshear scored a game-high 19 points and pulled-down seven rebounds against UC Irvine and Rozier led the way their last time out with 25 points and seven assists. Louisville is averaging 69.2 PPG on the year, but it has failed to reach that total in its last five games.

Betting Trends:

The Wolfpack are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 13 games in the NCAA Tournament.

The Cardinals have covered ATS in 11 of their last 16 games in the NCAA Tournament and they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 neutral-site games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last nine games following a SU win.

North Carolina State beat Louisville 74-63 in the regular season as a 10½-point road underdog. The total went OVER the closing 132 ½-point line.

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma

Venue: Carrier Dome
Location: Syracuse, NY
Betting Odds: Michigan State -2, Total 135½

The Spartans moved to the head of the class as favorites to win the East following their stunning 60-54 victory against Virginia as 4½-point underdogs. Michigan State started this tournament by beating No. 10 Georgia 70-63 as a six-point favorite. It is now 6-1 SU in its last seven games while going 4-3 ATS. The total has gone OVER in seven of its last nine games.

Senior guard Travis Trice matched his team-high season scoring average of 15 points in the win over Georgia and he raised the bar against the Cavaliers with a game-high 23 points while going 4-for-8 from three-point range. Michigan State is averaging 71.9 PPG and shooting as effective 47.1 from the field.

Oklahoma has quietly worked its way into the Sweet 16 with fairly routine victories against No. 14 Albany and No. 11 Dayton. The Sooners covered a four-point spread in their 72-66 victory over the Flyers their last time out, but they are still just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. The total went OVER the 129-point closing line in that contest after it stayed UNDER in five of their previous six games.

The pair of guards in junior Buddy Hield and sophomore Jordan Woodard helped pace the win against Dayton with a combined 31 points and eight assists and junior forward Ryan Spangler came up big with 12 rebounds. The Sooners shot 44.9 percent from the field, but they were on fire from three-point range; hitting 9-of-18 from beyond the arc. On the year, Oklahoma is hitting 43.6 percent of its shots from the field and averaging 71.9 PPG.

Betting Trends:

The Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games outside the conference and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the Big 12. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament.

The Sooners have failed to cover in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games played at a neutral site.

These two last met in 2013 with Michigan State winning 87-76 in a game that ended as a PUSH with the total going OVER the 154½-point closing line. The Spartans have a 3-2 SU edge in five previous meetings with the series tied 2-2-1 ATS.

Sweet 16 - South Regional
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Odds to win Midwest Regional - Sportsbook.ag

Duke 6/5
Gonzaga 6/5
Utah 5/1
UCLA 18/1

No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 UCLA

Venue:NRG Stadium
Location: Houston, TX.
Betting Odds: Gonzaga -8.5, Total: 145.5

Gonzaga (34-2 straight up, 17-14-2 against the spread) is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009. Mark Few has taken the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament in all 16 seasons of his tenure, including five Sweet 16 appearances, but he has never pushed his team to the Elite Eight. They last appeared in the Elite Eight in 1999 thanks to a West Region semifinal win over Florida on Casey Calvary's putback dunk in the final seconds. The 'Zags would lose to eventual national champ UConn in the Elite Eight in Phoenix.

Gonzaga destroyed Iowa by an 87-68 count as a six-point favorite in the Round of 32. Kyle Wiltjer paced the winners with 24 points and seven rebounds, making 10-of-12 shots from the field, including 4-of-6 from downtown. Kevin Pangos added 16 points, banging home 4-of-7 attempts from 3-point land. Domantas Sabonis finished with 18 points and nine rebounds.

UCLA (22-13 SU, 19-16 ATS) has won eight of its last 11 games and going back even further, it is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 outings. Steve Alford's club has taken the money in six consecutive contests from the underdog role.

UCLA advanced past the first round thanks to a comeback win over SMU. Trailing by two with about 13 seconds remaining, Bryce Alford's rushed a fadeaway trey that was well contested and was about to come up short. But good fortune was on the side of the Bruins, as Mustangs' center Yanick Moreira inexplicably committed goaltending to put UCLA in front by one point (it was a dumb play by Moreiera, but the kid owned it at the postgame presser and is forgiven in my book). On the ensuing possession, SMU's Nic Moore had a pair of looks to take the lead in the final seconds, but his shots were off the mark. The Bruins won 60-59 as 3.5-point underdogs. Alford was 9-of-11 from 3-point range and scored a game-high 27 points, while Norman Powell added 19. SMU used a 19-0 run sparked by a trio of 3's by Moore, who finished with 24 points, to take a 53-44 advantage with 4:34 remaining.

In the Round of 32, UCLA qualified for a second straight Sweet 16 appearance on Alford's watch by pulling away late in a 92-75 win over 14th-seeded UAB. The Bruins cashed tickets as 5.5-point 'chalk' behind 28 points, 12 rebounds and three blocked shots from Tony Parker. Bryce Alford added 22 points and five assists, while Powell finished with 15 points.

These teams met on Dec. 13 at Pauley Pavilion with Gonzaga winning an 87-74 decision as a 5.5-point road favorite. The 161 combined points went 'over' the 146-point total. Wiltjer led the way with 24 points, while USC transfer Byron Wesley produced 20 points, nine rebounds, four assists and a pair of blocked shots. Sabonis finished with 10 points and six rebounds. In the losing effort, Alford and Isaac Hamilton scored 23 and 18 points, respectively.

The 'over' is 19-12-2 overall for Gonzaga.

The 'under' is 21-13 overall for UCLA, going 17-7 in its last 24 contests.

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Utah

Venue:NRG Stadium
Location: Houston, TX.
Betting Odds: Duke -5, Total: 133.5

Duke (31-4 SU, 20-14-1 ATS) is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after collecting a pair of easy spread covers in blowout wins over Robert Morris and San Diego St. last weekend. The Blue Devils pounded the Aztecs 68-49 as nine-point 'chalk' thanks to Jahlil Okafor's 26 points, six rebounds and three blocked shots. Quinn Cook added 15 points, while Justise Winslow stuffed the box score with 13 points, 12 boards, five assists, four steals and three blocked shots.

With the win over Steve Fisher's team, Duke made it to the Sweet 16 for the 13th time in as many tries as a No. 1 seed. Mike Krzyzewski had not faced Fisher in 23 years since his 1992 team beat Fisher's 'Fab Five' squad for the national title. That was the widest gap between two coaches meeting in Tournament history.

Okafor's 47 points through a pair of NCAA Tournament games is the most ever by a Duke freshman.

Duke hasn't tasted defeat against a team not named Notre Dame since Jan. 13.

Utah (26-8 SU, 21-11-1 ATS) advanced to the Sweet 16 in its first Tournament appearance since 2009 by capturing a 75-64 win over Georgetown as a 4.5-point 'chalk' in the Round of 32. Brandon Taylor led a balanced offensive attack with 14 points and five assists, as he buried 4-of-8 from beyond the arc. Delon Wright added 12 points, five boards and five assists.

Utah has a pair of outstanding guards in Taylor and Wright, who averages a team-high 14.7 points per game. He has a 176/66 assists-to-turnovers ratio and also has a team-best 70 steals. Wright averages 4.9 rebounds per game and makes 51.8 percent of his attempts from the field, in addition to 83.4 percent of his shots from the charity stripe. Taylor is the Utes' second-leading scorer with a 10.5 PPG average. Taylor has a 116/54 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Also, he shoots at a 43.9 percent clip from beyond the arc and drains 84.6 of his attempts from the free-throw line. Forward Jordan Loveridge (10.2 PPG) missed seven games due to injuries, but he makes 44.9 percent from 3-point land and 87.3 percent at the line.

Utah has been an underdog four times, compiling a 2-1-1 spread record with one outright victory. The Utes won by four at BYU.

If Utah has the lead with five minutes remaining, Duke could be in big trouble because the Utes are 26-0 when they have the lead after 35 minutes of play.

The 'over' is 18-15 overall for Duke, but the 'under' has cashed in four straight games and six of its last seven.

The 'under' is 16-15-1 for Utah, 7-3 in its last 10 games.

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

UCLA vs Gonzaga

After five straight round of 32 departures the Gonzaga Bulldogs dispatching North Dakota State and 7th-seed Iowa are back in the Sweet-Sixteen and will face 11th-seed UCLA Bruins. Gonzaga will no doubt be looking for Tourney revenge as this is a rematch of the shocking Sweet 16 closing seconds loss to UCLA in 2006. Bulldogs (34-2, 14-14-2 ATS) priding themselves on a strong offense drop 79.5 through the iron sinking a nation best 52.7% of their shots. Wiltjer leads Bulldogs in scoring averaging 17.1 PPG, followed by Pangos (11.8), Karnowski (10.9) and Wesley (10.5). Zags are also very solid on the defensive end allowing 61.5 points/game on a stingy 39.1% shooting. Bruins (22-13, 19-16 ATS) are not as efficient in putting the ball in the basket at 72.2 per/game on 44.5% shooting and are not as strong defending allowing opponents 68.0 per/game on 41.7% from the field. Oddsmakers have pegged the Gonzaga 8.5 point favorite. Betting trends line up well for Bulldogs. The status as 8.5 chalk or less points has working well for Zags (13-4-2 ATS) while UCLA has not lived up to betting expectations in an underdog roll of 8.5 or less (3-7 ATS).