College Basketball betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, November 10th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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West Virginia beat Texas A&M 81-77 at home LY; they were up 18 at half, made 11-26 on arc but only 11-23 on foul line. Aggies fought back behind 10-21 shooting on the arc. A&M has couple of kids out for this game, which is being played in Germany. Texas A&M has 4 starters back from a 16-15 team that went 8-10 in SEC. Return of 6-10 Williams helps them. West Virginia isn’t as deep as normal, might not press as much, but they’re still expected to be a top 10 team. Last year, SEC teams were 11-6 vs spread when facing a Big X team.
North Carolina crushed Northern Iowa 85-42 LY; game was only 33-26 at the half. UNI shot 6-24 on the arc, wound up 14-16, 9-9 in the Missouri Valley. Panthers are picked 3rd in MVC this year, a league weakened by Wichita’s departure. UNI has three starters back this season. North Carolina lost three starters from its national title team, plus PG Berry (broken hand) is out for a few weeks. Going to take a while for Carolina to get some chemistry. Last two years, ACC teams are 7-2 vs spread when playing an MVC opponent.
Missouri is supposed to make a quantum leap into the top 25 after winning 27 games combined the last three years; they’ve got a top 5 recruiting class and four starters back from LY’s 8-24 that got the last coach fired. One of their assistant coaches is the dad of two of their recruits; go figure. Iowa State lost four starters from LY, is in rebuilding mode, after making NCAAs the last six years. Cyclones lost 73% of scoring, 56% of rebounding, 78% of assists from LY. You’d think it will take some time for the newcomers to come together.
USC is one of the teams caught in crosshairs of SneakerGate; they’ve got at least one player who is sitting out right now. Trojans have all five starters back from 1 26-10 team that won an NCAA tourney game last March, but their chemistry is an unknown, seeing as one of their assistants is under indictment. Fullerton lost three starters from LY’s 17-15 team; Titans struggled on offense and lost their leading scorer. Fullerton has seven new kids; five freshmen, five JC transfers, so early on this year, they figure to struggle as they get to know each other. Last couple years, Big West teams are 12-22 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 opponent.
Long Beach State toned down its pre-Big West schedule because five players transferred last spring; 49ers have seven new players and lot of holes to fill, including point guard- they brought in a JC PG and also one from Finland. San Francisco returns nine of its top 10 scorers from LY’s 20-13 team tbat went 10-8 in a top-heavy WCC. Eight of their first nine games are at home Dons think they can be a top 3 team in the WCC- they’re picked 4th. Last two years, WCC teams are 20-17 vs spread when facing a Big West opponent.
Georgia Tech is playing UCLA in China; what a mess. Three UCLA players (all freshmen) are under house arrest in Shanghai, after a shoplifiting incident- they will not play here. Friend of Ga Tech’s coach went public with claims he has helped the coach pay off Tech players with illegal benefits. Two Tech players stayed home in Atlanta because of that. One of the freshman was supposed to be UCLA’s power forward; Bruins figure to share the PG spot this year- they’re thin without those three kids. Tech was a surprising 21-16 LY; expectations were higher now, until the off-court issues reared their head.
Memphis had six kids bolt the program last spring; they’ve got two starters and a walk-on back- they’ve got eight new players, only 10 on scholarship overall, are picked in lower half of the AAC. Memphis has decent big guy; they’re thin at guard. Alabama has one guy ineligible, another guy hurt; both starters- they’re still talented, but thin. Last two years, SEC teams are 9-6 vs spread when playing AAC squads. This game is at the Naval Academy in Annapolis.
Weber State score 1.17 ppp in LY’s 77-71 win at Utah State, its first win over the Aggies in last five meetings- they shot 63% inside the arc. Aggies won their last two visits to Ogden, 77-71/73-70. Utah State has two really good 6-4 soph guards; big-time schools tried to poach McEwen; he is that good. Danny Ainge’s son is a freshman sub for USU. Weber State isn’t real deep; they need their freshmen to produce, sooner than later. Last two years, Big Sky teams are 15-13 vs spread when playing a Mountain West team, 5-4 at home.
East Tennessee St lost four starters from SoCon title team that lost 80-65 to Florida in NCAA tournament- they’re 51-20 the last two years. ETSU coach Forbes was JC coach, is a recruiter; Buccaneers’ only returning starter is a 6-4 senior PG- it’ll take time for them to gel. Northern Kentucky has four starters back from 24-11 team that won Horizon tourney, lost 79-70 to Kentucky in first round of NCAA’s. Last two years, SoCon teams are 4-0 SU/ATS vs Horizon teams; ETSU won/covered vs Green Bay-Detroit-Milwaukee.
Siena lost four of five starters from LY, has no seniors this year- 10 of their guys are frosh/sophs. Starting on road is tough duty, especially with untested PG’s. Saints do have a 6-8 freshman who was on the Canadian National Team. Charleston has all five starters back from LY’s 25-10 team, is picked to win the CAA. Cougars shot only 33.2% behind arc LY; if they improve that, they’ll be a Cinderella in March. Last two years, MAAC teams are 8-5-2 vs spread vs CAA opponents.
St Bonaventure won its last six games with Niagara, the last three by 10+ points each. Niagara has won only 32 games the last four years; they’re expected to be better this year, with all five starters back from LY’s 10-23 team that lost six of its last seven games. Bonnies has 4 starters back from LY’s 20-12, 11-7 team; they’re picked to be a contender in A-14. Bonnies have one of best backcourts in A-14, with two senior guards- they have 60 wins the last three years. Last two years, MAAC teams are 12-9 vs spread when playing A-14 teams.
Cal-Irvine beat South Dakota State 73-58 at home LY; Irvine held Jackrabbits to 0.83 ppp, led by 14 at half. Anteaters won 114 games the last five years; they’ve got three starters back, but lost 48% of team’s scoring from LY. They need a go-to scorer to emerge; their defense should be fine. South Dakota State went 8-8 in Summit but won 9 of last 12 games, including the conference tourney; they’ve got three starters back from that team- they need to develop a point guard.
Washington’s new coach Hopkins was a Syracuse aide for 22 years, but he is from California; Huskies went 9-22 LY, fell into trap of recruiting top 100 recruits who bolted after one year in college. Washington has four starters back but lost Fultz to the NBA. Belmont has 117 wins the last five years, is once again expected to contend in the OVC, a lesser league than the Pac-12. Bruins have three starters back from a 23-7 team that won an NIT game at Georgia. Belmont expects to play a little faster this year, which may help in OVC more than it will here.
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