Monday's Best NCAAB Bets
By Covers.com
Louisville Cardinals at Marquette Golden Eagles (-4.5, 135)
No. 24 Marquette, held off Pittsburgh, 62-57 in large part because of Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder's combined 33 points. Monday's matchup showcases the stingy defense of Louisville against the offensive juggernaut of Marquette.
The Cardinals have relied on their defense, which has allowed 60 points or less 12 times and is second in the Big East in field goal percentage defense. While the defense has been excellent, the offense has struggled as the Cardinals are 12th in the conference in field goal percentage (43 percent), with only Gorgui Dieng and Kyle Kuric shooting over 43 percent.
The Golden Eagles have been one of the best scoring teams in the Big East (2nd at 76.8 points) and are led by Darius Johnson-Odom, who is second in the conference, averaging 18.1 points per game. Jae Crowder adds 16.3 points and a team-high 7.2 rebounds, while shooting 51 percent from the field.
Marquette’s been excellent distributing the ball as well and is tied with Syracuse for the conference lead in assists
Pick: Golden Eagles
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers (-15.5, 133)
Texas A&M will have its hands full trying to slow down No. 9 Missouri's high-powered offense on Martin Luther King Day. The Aggies are averaging only 62.4 points per game, one of the lowest totals in the country, while the Tigers are putting up 83.9 points per contest. Missouri is making 58.3 percent of its field goals, including 8.4 3-pointers per game.
Marcus Denmon is coming off an 18-point performance against Texas. Denmon, who averages a team-high 17.9 points as well as 5.3 rebounds, had two excellent games against the Aggies last year, scoring 22 and 19 points.
Phil Pressey is coming off his second double-double and now has four games of 10-plus assists. Ricardo Ratliffe (13.7 points, 6.8 rebounds per game) has scored in double figures in 15 games and has been over 20 points four times.
Each of the last six meetings between these two teams have played over and we like that trend to continue.
Pick: Over
LOUISVILLE (14 - 4) at MARQUETTE (14 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 62-40 ATS (+18.0 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 83-51 ATS (+26.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MARQUETTE is 2-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-1 straight up against MARQUETTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M (10 - 6) at MISSOURI (16 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 2-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 3-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH (11 - 7) at SYRACUSE (19 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME (11 - 7) at RUTGERS (10 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.
RUTGERS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
RUTGERS is 2-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
RUTGERS is 1-1 straight up against NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR (17 - 0) at KANSAS (14 - 3)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 1-1 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BYU (15 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (6 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
BYU is 160-107 ATS (+42.3 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
BYU is 61-35 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
SAN DIEGO is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 12-32 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games in January games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
RIDER (6 - 12) at FAIRFIELD (8 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
RIDER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
RIDER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
RIDER is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games in January games since 1997.
RIDER is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FAIRFIELD is 2-2 against the spread versus RIDER over the last 3 seasons
FAIRFIELD is 2-2 straight up against RIDER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE ST (11 - 8) at AUSTIN PEAY (5 - 13)
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
TENNESSEE ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE ST is 3-1 against the spread versus AUSTIN PEAY over the last 3 seasons
AUSTIN PEAY is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
IDAHO ST (4 - 13) at PORTLAND ST (8 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO ST is 116-160 ATS (-60.0 Units) in all games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 116-160 ATS (-60.0 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 72-104 ATS (-42.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in January games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 33-59 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 67-102 ATS (-45.2 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 19-38 ATS (-22.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND ST is 2-2 against the spread versus IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND ST is 2-2 straight up against IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE vs. MARQUETTE
Louisville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Marquette
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Marquette
Marquette is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Marquette is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
TEXAS A&M vs. MISSOURI
Texas A&M is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Texas A&M is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Missouri is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
Missouri is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
PITTSBURGH vs. SYRACUSE
Pittsburgh is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
Syracuse is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Syracuse's last 10 games
RIDER vs. FAIRFIELD
Rider is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Rider is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Fairfield is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Fairfield is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
TENNESSEE STATE vs. AUSTIN PEAY
Tennessee State is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Tennessee State is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Austin Peay
Austin Peay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Austin Peay is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games
NOTRE DAME vs. RUTGERS
Notre Dame is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Notre Dame is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Rutgers is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 6 games
BAYLOR vs. KANSAS
Baylor is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas's last 5 games
BYU vs. SAN DIEGO
BYU is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
BYU is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games on the road
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
IDAHO STATE vs. PORTLAND STATE
Idaho State is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Idaho State's last 6 games on the road
Portland State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland State's last 7 games
EASTERN WASHINGTON vs. SEATTLE
Eastern Washington is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Eastern Washington is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
No trends available
Monday's Top College Basketball Trends
NOTRE DAME is 1-10 ATS Away off ATS loss (vs Rutgers)
TENNESSEE ST is 0-6 ATS off conference game (vs Austin Peay)
FAIRFIELD is 0-6 ATS off SU loss (vs Rider)
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS at home off home SU win/ATS loss (vs Baylor)
LOUISVILLE is 14-4 ATS after allowing 60 pts or less (vs Marquette)
MISSOURI is 11-2 ATS at home off BB wins (vs S Illinois)
PORTLAND ST is 3-12 ATS off SU win (vs Idaho St)
Games to Watch
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The 2011-12 men’s college basketball season has reached the halfway point of its first full month of conference play and we have already seen our fair share of stunning upsets and fantastic finishes as teams continue their quest to secure a place in this year’s NCAA Tournament in mid-March. Every game on the schedule from now until the start of the conference tournaments at the end of the season is a golden opportunity for the top teams in the country to continue to build a resume that is worthy of an automatic invitation to the big dance.
The following is a brief look at the top matchups for each day this week along with a few facts and figures to help handicap the games.
No. 15 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 24 Marquette Golden Eagles
Louisville cruised past DePaul this past Saturday 76-59 as a 15½ -point home favorite to raise its record on the year to 14-4 straight-up and 7-7-1 against the spread. It was just the Cardinals’ second victory in their past five games after opening the season with 12 straight wins.
Marquette upended Pittsburgh 62-57 as a 9½ -point home favorite on Saturday to post just its third victory in its last six games. The Golden Eagles are also 14-4 SU and 6-8-1 ATS. They are 9-1 SU at home this season, but only 1-5-1 ATS. Marquette has been opened as a five-point home favorite over the Cardinals.
College Basketball Gambling Preview: Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks
By Fairway Jay
Sportsmemo.com
Kansas and Baylor battle in a key Big Xll game Monday night with both teams 4-0 in conference play. They should put on a great show at raucous Allen Fieldhouse, where Kansas is 60-1 SU the last 3+ years. Baylor’s collection of big men may be the best in the nation with a long, athletic group of forwards and some top NBA prospects including sophomore Perry Jones lll and freshman Quincy Miller. Kansas counters with a 7-foot center and the league’s No. 1 rebounder, junior Thomas Robinson.
I saw Baylor (17-0) play West Virginia in December at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. The Bears’ athleticism and length is impressive and they remain one of just three undefeated teams in the country.
Here is a statistical profile of tonight’s top game on ESPN.
League stats show the following.
• Baylor leads the league in scoring at 79 ppg while Kansas has the league’s No. 1 scoring defense allowing just 57 ppp
• Baylor is No. 2 in scoring defense at 62 ppg
• Kansas (+18) and Baylor (+16) lead the Big Xll in scoring margin
• Kansas (34%) and Baylor (38%) lead the Big Xll in field goal defense
• Baylor leads the league in 3-point shooting (42%) and Kansas is No. 2 in 3-point shooting defense
• Kansas (7.0) and Baylor (5.0) lead the league in blocked shots per game
• Baylor leads the league in assists (17) and steals (9) per game
• Both teams are +8 in rebounding margin to lead the league
Despite a rising total, let’s play this game under the total as a Free Fairway Forecast.
NCAAB Preview
Louisville won six of last seven games vs Marquette, winning three of last four visits here, with wins by 3-14-2 points. Cardinals lost four of last six games, losing last three against top 100 teams by 3-7-2 points- they're 2-2 on road, winning at Butler/St John's. Marquette is 3-2 in Big East, with four of five games decided by 7 or less points; they're 9-1 at home, with only loss to #35 Vanderbilt. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-5 against the spread.
Texas A&M won its last six games vs Missouri; Aggies are only Big X team this group of Mizzou seniors hasn't beaten. A&M won last three visits here by 3-8-3 points, but they're struggling this year, losing five of last six games vs D-I teams, with Big X road losses by 10-9 points. Big X double digit home favorites are 4-5 vs spread. Missouri won both its conference home games, by 38-11 points; they make 57.6% of 2-point shots, best mark in country.
Pitt is stunningly 0-5 in Big East, with three of last four losses by 5 or less points; they rank #327 in country in forcing turnovers. Panthers are 8-1 in last nine games vs Syracuse, winning last five visits to the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is 6-0 in Big East, winning its home games by 26-7-23 points; they force turnovers on 27.2% of possessions (#4 in country). Five of their six league wins are by 13+ points. Big East home favorites of 13+ points are 4-1-1 vs spread.
Notre Dame won six of last seven games with Rutgers, losing 74-73 last time they were here; underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in last nine series tilts. Irish are 3-2 in Big East, with four of five games decided by 11+ points; they're 1-4 on road, with three of four losses by 16+ points. Rutgers is 2-3 in Big East after home upset of Florida fueled some optimism; they were down 26 at half in last game. Favorites are 6-3 vs spread in Big East games when spread is 3 or less points.
17-0 Baylor is underdog for 4th time this year (Northwestern/K-State/ BYU were first three), but Bears lost eight of last nine games vs Kansas, with Jayhawks winning their last four visits here, by 20-15-10-6 points. Kansas won its last seven games; they're 7-3 vs top 100 teams, losing to Duke-Kentucky-Davidson. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in Big X games when spread is 5 or less points. Jayhawks won their two Big 12 home games, by 18 over K-State, 9 over Iowa State (down 3 at half).
BYU (-22.5) pounded San Diego 88-52 Dec 31, holding Toreros to 23% from floor; they were up 10 at the half. Cougars played only three road games, winning by 19 at Utah, 8 at LMU, losing at St Mary's; Cougars have been killing teams at home, making 40.9% behind arc, but haven't done as well on road. San Diego lost six of last seven games, losing WCC games by 36-6-11 point. WCC double digit underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 2-1 at home.
Rider is 7-3 in last ten games against Fairfield, winning last three visits to this gym, by 17-8-9 points, as visitor won five of last six series games. Broncs won five of last seven games after a 1-10 start; they're 3-3 so far in MAAC, with losses by 16-20-4 points. MAAC double digit home favorites are 2-6 against the spread. Fairfield was expected to contend at top of MAAC, but they've lost five of last six games, losing last two by a combined total of five points.
Home team won nine of last 11 Tennessee State-Austin Peay games, as State lost seven of its last eight visits here, losing by 24-18-45-7-1-2-15 points. Tigers are 3-3 in OVC; 3-0 at home, 0-3 road, losing road games by 5-6-7 points- their last five games were all decided by 7 or less pts. Peay won its last two games, by 15-3 points, after starting season 3-13; their only OVC home loss was to unbeaten Murray State. OVC home favorites of 7 or less points are 8-4 against the spread.
Idaho State is 4-11 in last 15 games with Portland State, losing three of last four visits here, losing by 23-27-35 points. Bengals are 2-3 so far in conference, with both wins on road- their losses are by 14-4-24 points. Big Sky single digit favorites are 10-6-1 vs spread, 5-5 at home. Vikings didn't play Saturday, so they've had two extra days to prepare for this- they're 2-3 in conference, but already lost to Montana/Weber State, two teams that are dominating the league this season.