Monday's Best NIT Bets
By Covers.com
Illinois State Redbirds at Stanford Cardinal (-7.5, 136)
Illinois State looks to continue its late-season surge in the second round of the NIT against third-seeded Stanford, which is 15-3 at home.
The seventh-seeded Redbirds have won five of their last seven games, including a 96-93 overtime win at Mississippi in the first round. Stanford and Illinois State share two common opponents, Fresno State and Bethune-Cookman.
The Cardinal defeated both teams handily, while the Redbirds lost to Fresno State before routing Bethune-Cookman. The winner will advance to the quarterfinals on March 21 against either fifth-seeded Nevada or eighth-seeded Bucknell, which upset top-seeded Arizona in the first round.
Forward Josh Owens stands one point away from 1,000 for his career, and he’ll need a big game against Illinois State’s formidable frontline. Owens ranks second on the team in scoring (11.7) and first in rebounding (5.7) while starting all 33 games.
Freshman guard Chasson Randle averages a team-high 13.7 points, but he had just nine in Stanford’s 76-65 first-round victory over Cleveland State.
Pick: Cardinal
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Tennessee Volunteers (-5, 134.5)
Tennessee already has exceeded expectations in coach Cuonzo Martin's first year, and the Volunteers will try to continue their march toward a postseason title -- albeit not the most coveted one -- when they face in-state rival Middle Tennessee State in the second round of the NIT.
The winner will face the Miami-Minnesota winner in the third round, Wednesday. Tennessee has been tough at home, winning 13 of its last 14 at Thompson-Boling Arena.
The Volunteers have won five of six and nine of 11 overall. Middle Tennessee State defeated Tennessee in the first round of the 1988 NIT in Murfreesboro, Tenn., but the Vols have won nine straight against the Blue Raiders since.
Pick: Volunteers
NCAAB Preview
Middle Tennessee came to Knoxville in December '10 and lost by 30-- Sun Belt road underdogs are 36-20 vs spread this year, but 7-9 if spread was less than 8 points. SEC home favorites of 8 or less points are 6-7. Vols are 9-2 in their last 11 games, won their last eight at home. MTSU lost by 7 at Vanderbilt in its only game against an SEC opponent.
Minnesota won three of its last four games, with two of those going OT; Gophers beat Va Tech at home by 3, only game vs an ACC opponent. Miami won its last four home games; they lost by 11 at Miami in only game against a Big Dozen foe. ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-8 against spread; Big Dozen road dogs of 6 or less points are 10-4.
Princeton won five in row, nine of last ten games; they won at Rutgers by a hoop, in only game vs Big East foe (they also beat Florida State in triple OT). Big East single digit home favorites are 8-17 against spread; Ivy League single digit road underdogs are 15-6. Pitt lost seven of its last ten games- they beat Penn by 20, in only game against an Ivy opponent.
Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 vs spread; Ivy teams are 11-8-1 vs spread in games where spread was 4 or less points. Horizon road faves are 5-10 vs spread when laying single digits. Butler won eight of its last ten games, losing twice at Valparaiso. Penn won eight of last nine games, losing at Princeton, game that KO'd them from shot at Ivy title.
Illinois State lost MVC title game in OT to Creighton, then made 16-23 behind arc in OT win at Ole Miss last week; Redbirds won four of last five games, none of which were at home. MVC single digit road dogs are 19-16 vs spread; Pac-12 single digit home favorites are 13-15. Stanford won six of last nine games, three of its last four at Maples Pavilion.
Oregon State won five of last six games, winning last three at home by 10-14-21 points; Beavers are 13-3 out of conference, but against #329 non-conference schedule. TCU lost eight of its last nine games; they lost by 24 at Pac-12 doormat USC. Pac-12 single digit home favorites are 13-15 against the spread; MWC single digit road underdogs are 9-16.
Wyoming lost its last six road games, but won by 11 at Colorado in its only games vs Pac-12 opponent this season; Cowboys are 4-8 in their last 12 games overall. Pac-12 teams are 14-16 vs spread when number is 4 or less points; MWC teams are 16-15. Washington State is 5-8 in its last 13 games- they lost by 10 to New Mexico, their only MWC foe.
Armadillosports.com
MIDDLE TENN ST (26 - 6) at TENNESSEE (19 - 14) - 3/19/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
TENNESSEE is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all home games this season.
TENNESSEE is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TENNESSEE is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TENNESSEE is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (20 - 14) at MIAMI (20 - 12) - 3/19/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ILLINOIS ST (21 - 13) at STANFORD (22 - 11) - 3/19/2012, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
ILLINOIS ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PRINCETON (20 - 11) at PITTSBURGH (18 - 16) - 3/19/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PRINCETON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games this season.
PRINCETON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
PRINCETON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
PRINCETON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PRINCETON is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
PRINCETON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PRINCETON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BUTLER (21 - 14) at PENNSYLVANIA (20 - 12) - 3/19/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUTLER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 107-66 ATS (+34.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
BUTLER is 133-102 ATS (+20.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
BUTLER is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PENNSYLVANIA is 69-97 ATS (-37.7 Units) in all home games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 69-97 ATS (-37.7 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TCU (18 - 14) at OREGON ST (20 - 14) - 3/19/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 118-157 ATS (-54.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OREGON ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
OREGON ST is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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WYOMING (21 - 11) at WASHINGTON ST (16 - 16) - 3/19/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
WASHINGTON ST is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Middle Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Middle Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Middle Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
PRINCETON vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Princeton's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
BUTLER vs. PENNSYLVANIA
Butler is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Butler's last 5 games on the road
Pennsylvania is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pennsylvania is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
MINNESOTA vs. MIAMI
Minnesota is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
TCU vs. OREGON STATE
TCU is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of TCU's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oregon State's last 12 games at home
Oregon State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
WYOMING vs. WASHINGTON STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wyoming's last 6 games on the road
Wyoming is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington State's last 5 games at home
ILLINOIS STATE vs. STANFORD
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Illinois State's last 9 games on the road
Illinois State is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Stanford's last 5 games at home
Stanford is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
CBB Cheat Sheeet
By Scott Spreitzer
Pregame.com
MTSU v. TENNESSEE: Vols put just 2 players a night in double-digits in scoring. One of those, Jeronne Maymon is listed as questionable (knee). Tenny on an 8-0 SU run at Thompson-Boling Arena, covering 8 of the last 10. This one is all about whether or not MTSU's LaRon Dendy can continue to get his looks inside against a strong interior defense.
MINNESOTA v. MIAMI-FLA: Gophers go from playing a team of lilliputians (Savannah State) to a team that sports a pair of players 6'10" and taller in Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson. If Ralph Sampson-III doesn't play (questionable) the Gophers will have just one key player (Rodney Williams) taller than 6'6".
ILLINOIS STATE v. STANFORD: A pair of young teams go at it. ISU "canned" 17 of 23 (73.9%) of their 3-pointers in their previous game, making 63% of their FGA overall. Despite that, they had to go to OT to win by 3 at Ole Miss. And it should be noted the Rebels made just 59% of their FT attempts or it could have been Ole Miss advancing.
PRINCETON v. PITTSBURGH: Panthers couldn't miss in last game, including a 14 of 25 night from behind the arc. Only shot 3 FTs (made 1) but beat Wofford by 23, showing that they are focused despite playing levels below the Big Dance. Princeton hung 96 on 60% shooting to advance past Evansville.
BUTLER v. PENN: Tyler Bernardini did not play in Penn's win over Quinnipiac. He is the Quakers second leading scorer and second leading rebounder. The guard is questionable (foot). Penn = 13 of 27 treys last game. Butler had 3 guards combine to make 7 of 12 treys. Bulldogs hit less than 29% from behind the arc on the season.
TCU v. OREGON STATE: Frogs were terrible on the MWC road this season and play very little defense ranked 326th and 301st in FG percentage allowed and 3-point defense. OSU will trap and trap some more against TCU's backcourt. But are the Beavers trustworthy as relatively big chalk?
WYOMING v. WASHINGTON STATE: Cowboys faltered on the offensive end down the stretch scoring less than 59 points in 7 of their last 13 games. In fact, they scored 48 points or less in 4 of those games, including 38 in one contest. Washington State scored 89 points on 60% shooting against San Fran last time out, but they scored 55, 46, and 43 points in 3 of their last 5 games.