Monday's Best NCAAB Bets
By Covers.com
Miami RedHawks at Toledo Rockets (-2, 127.5)
Toledo gets to play at home in the first round of the MAC tournament, and the Rockets enter this 7 vs. 10 matchup on a high note.
In Saturday’s 76-51 win over Eastern Michigan, Rian Pearson had 27 points and 11 rebounds, his eighth double-double this season. Curtis Dennis added a career-high 21 points.
Toledo has gone 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games, and is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.
In the earlier meeting between these teams, the Rockets won 63-61 on Jan. 25. They’re playing better ball now. Miami, meanwhile, has dropped three straight.
Pick: Rockets
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels (1.5, 133.5)
Gonzaga guard Kevin Pangos torched the Gaels for 27 points when they met in Spokane on Feb. 9, a 14-point Bulldogs win.
On Saturday, Pangos poured in 30 points as Gonzaga dismantled BYU. Now it's up to the Gaels to stop him in the WCC championship game in Vegas.
"Every way you can get a shot, he knows how to get it," Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett said. "But he's more than that. He's a good penetrator. I think he's become the head of the monster up there. He's what makes them go."
The Bulldogs won’t even have defensive stopper Stephen Holt to try to defend Pangos. He is rehabbing an injured knee.
Gonzaga is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral-site games.
Pick: Bulldogs
NCAAB Preview
Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois twice this season, 47-40 (-2) in DeKalb Jan 7, then 48-45 (-8.5) at home Feb 22; hard to lay points in this game, since Eagles shoot just 40.7% inside arc, 6th-worst mark in country. Eastern is 3-2 in this round last five years, with wins by 3-4-6 points. Huskies haven't won conference tourney game since 2003, with four of last six losses by 6 or less points. Northern lost six of last seven games, with four of the six losses by 10+ points.
Over last seven years, Ball State is 0-5 in this round of MAC tourney, with last three losses all by 4 or less points, or in OT; Cardinals split its games with Western Michigan this year, with home side winning both. Ball State (-6.5) won 78-69 Jan 7 in Muncie, then lost 78-61 (+3.5) Feb 22 in Kalamazoo. Ball snapped out of 1-9 funk by winning last couple games, allowing 52-51 points. Broncos are 11-8 in this event last nine years, 4-1 in this round- they lost eight of their last 10 games overall.
Toledo won five of last six games overall and four in row at home, but it also had awful loss at Northern Illinois; Rockets (+8.5) won 63-61 Jan 25 at Miami, in only meeting this season. Toledo is 0-3 in this tourney last three years, allowing average of 79.7 ppg, but at 7-8 this year, this is best Rockets have done in MAC since '08. This is only second time in decade Miami hasn't gotten tourney bye; Redhawks lost last four games on foreign soil, by 3-15-10-5 points.
Central Michigan (+8.5) lost 71-58 at Bowling Green Jan 25, as Central players other than Ziegler shot just 30.6% for night, while Falcons shot 51% for game. Chippewas lost first MAC tourney game last two years, by 9-14 points; they're 3-1 in this round last five years, and are getting better slowly, splitting last six games overall-- four of last six losses are by seven or less points. Over last six years, more experienced Falcons are 1-4 in this round of tourney.
CAA Tournament
Drexel won its last 19 games, VCU won 16 of last 17; Rams lost 64-58 at Drexel Jan 8, in only series meeting this year. Dragons played seven guys in Saturday's win, really six Sunday (7th guy played 3:00), with three starters playing 34+ minutes in both games last two nights. Drexel won 19 games in row, last losing January 2 at Georgia State. VCU got off to a 41-13 start over rival George Mason Sunday, led by 16 at half, coasted home. Richmond site means Rams will have crowd advantage.
MAAC Tournament
Fairfield underachieved during regular season, finishing T3 in league they were picked to win. Stags don't go to their bench a lot, playing three of their starters 36+ minutes Sunday, after they used those same guys 32+ minutes Saturday. Loyola caught break when Siena upset Manhattan Saturday- they won first two tourney games by 13-10, shooting 63/51% from floor in those wins. Road team won both series meetings this year, as Stags won 68-51 at Loyola, after Greyhounds won 66-63 at Fairfield.
Summit Tournament
#1 seed Oral Roberts/#2 seed South Dakota State played Saturday, their opponents played last night, so they have that advantage.
#1 seed has gotten to Summit League final last nine years; Oral Roberts beat Western Illinois twice this season, 71-70 (-4.5) in Macomb Jan 12, in double OT, then 61-51 (-12) at home Feb 11. Eagles won seven in a row, 20 of last 21 games; since 2005, they're 5-1 in this round of Summit tourney, winning semifinal games by 11-19-21-16-6 points. WIU played all five starters 31+ minutes last night; none of four subs they used got more than seven minutes on floor.
Southern Utah was down 11 with 2:40 left before rallying to pull off an unlikely 84-82 upset over Oakland last night; Thunderbirds shot 58% for night, surviving Oakland's 15-27 onslaught behind arc in game where defense wasn't a priority. South Dakota State beat SUU twice this year, 75-68 (-5) on road Jan 5, then 66-56 (-15) at home Feb 4. Jackrabbits are team with four guys who make 40%+ behind arc (39.6% as team, #4 in country protecting ball). SUU'swin last night was tough game.
Sun Belt Tournament
North Texas is 14-3 in this tournament last five years, losing in final LY after winning it year before; Mean Green won Sunday night, despite star Mitchell being held to 5 points- home team won both their games with . Arkansas State this season. ASU upset top-seed Middle Tennessee last night, thanks to Blue Raiders going 0-5 from foul line in last minute; ASU's bench played a total of only 63 minutes in last two games, with all five starters going 30+ minutes both games last two nights.
Western Kentucky covered 11 of their last 13 games, winning SU as the underdog last two nights; they've won last four games overall, but lost 78-65 (+15) at Denver Jan 15, with Pioneers making 10-17 behind arc in game they led 43-16 at half. Denver won its last five games, all by 11+ points covering four, and non-cover was win by 19 over UL-Monroe in game they laid 20.5. Denver's Princeton offense tough to prep for in a day, tough to guard when playing third day in row.
WCC Tournament
WCC finalists had Sunday off, so this should be higher quality game, as Gonzaga-St Mary's meet in WCC final for fourth year in row, Bulldogs won two of previous three, all decided by 12+ points- they've won six of last eight WCC tourneys overall. Home side won both Gonzaga-St Mary's games this season; Gaels (-4) won 83-62 in first meeting Jan 12, then lost rematch 73-59 (+3.5) Feb 9 in Spokane. Defensive ace Holt is still out for St Mary's. Both teams are in NCAAs, no pressure here.
Armadillosports.com
Championship Monday
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Championship Week in men's college basketball kicks-off this tonight with four conference title games in the Mid-Majors. The following is a brief look at each of the four matchups along with a few key statistics to help handicap the games.
Colonial Athletic Association - Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. Drexel Dragons
VCU gained notoriety for its magical run to last year's Final Four, but it comes into this game needing a win to guarantee a spot in this season's NCAA Tournament. The Rams finished the regular season 25-6 straight-up and were 13-3 SU in conference play. They knocked-off Northeastern 75-65 in the first round of the CAA Tournament as 12-point favorites and beat George Mason 74-64 in the semifinals as six-point favorites. VCU is now 17-14-1 against the spread overall and 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 games. The total has gone 'over' in five of its last seven games.
A one-point victory over Old Dominion as a 2½-point road underdog on February 25 sealed the CAA regular season title for Drexel. It went on to upend NC-Wilmington 59-47 as a 13-point favorite in the first round and beat ODU again 68-51 as two-point favorites in the semifinals to earn a berth in this championship game. The Dragons recent run extended its current winning streak to 19 games including a 64-58 victory over VCU in early January as one-point home underdogs. They have been equally impressive ATS this season with a 19-11 record overall and a 4-1 record in their last five games. Drexel is 3-3 SU against VCU in the past six games and 5-1 ATS. The total has stayed 'under' in five of the last seven meetings.
West Coast Conference - Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 21 St. Mary's Gaels
This will be Gonzaga's 15th-straight appearance in the West Coast Conference title game. It earned its place in this year's game with a 77-58 victory over BYU in the semifinals as a 2½-point favorite. The Bulldogs are now 25-5 SU on the year and 13-3 SU in conference play. They went 13-15-1 ATS and the total stayed 'under' in 21 of their 29 games. Gonzaga is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall and 5-8-1 ATS on the road. The total has now stayed 'under' in its last seven games.
St. Mary's comes into this title game as a 2½-point underdog with the total line set at 134½ points. It squeezed-out an 83-78 win over San Francisco as an eight-point favorite to earn its place in the finals. The Gaels are now 26-5 SU overall and 14-2 SU in conference play. They locked-up the West Coast regular season title with a 67-60 victory over San Francisco on February 25 as four-point road favorites. They are 13-13 ATS overall, but just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. The total has stayed 'under' in five of their last seven games. St. Mary's split the season-series with the Bulldogs with each team winning SU and ATS at home. Gonzaga has a slight 5-3 edge both SU and ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has stayed 'under' in five of the last seven games.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference - Fairfield Stags vs. Loyola (MD) Greyhounds
Fairfield survived a 65-63 scare against Rider as an 8 ½-point favorite in the first round of the MAAC Tournament and pulled-off an 85-75 upset over regular-season champ Iona as a 4½-point underdog in the semifinals to earn a place in the title game. The Stags are now 19-13 SU and 12-16-1 ATS. The total has stayed 'under' in seven of their last 10 games.
Loyola rolled over Niagara 86-73 as an eight-point favorite and beat Siena 70-60 as a 7 ½-point favorite to work its way into this game. The Greyhounds come in with an overall record of 23-8 SU and are 13-5 SU in conference play. They went 13-9-3 ATS overall and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Loyola lost to Fairfield 68-51 on February 12 as a 3½-point home favorite, but beat the Stags 66-63 as a five-point road underdog in mid-January.
Southern Conference - Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Davidson Wildcats
Western Carolina ended the regular season with a losing record in conference play but its three-game tear in the conference tournament including an 82-77 victory over UNC-Greensboro as a 2½-point favorite has it in tonight's final. The Catamounts are 17-17 SU and 14-16 ATS. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and the total has gone 'over' in five of their last six.
Davidson came into this tournament as the No. 1 seed in the North Division with a 13-2 SU record in conference play. It held true to form in this tournament with three wins both SU and ATS including an 83-67 romp over Elon as a 13½-point favorite in the semifinals. The Wildcats are 24-7 SU and 17-12 ATS on the year and 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games. They hold a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS edge over Western Carolina in the last eight meetings including an 88-67 victory this season as 14-point home favorites.
VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 6) vs. DREXEL (26 - 5) - 3/5/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DREXEL is 5-1 against the spread versus VA COMMONWEALTH over the last 3 seasons
DREXEL is 3-3 straight up against VA COMMONWEALTH over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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N ILLINOIS (4 - 25) at E MICHIGAN (14 - 17) - 3/5/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 6-1 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 4-3 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BALL ST (15 - 14) at W MICHIGAN (12 - 19) - 3/5/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) in all games this season.
BALL ST is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALL ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents this season.
W MICHIGAN is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 3-3 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 3-3 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI OHIO (9 - 20) at TOLEDO (16 - 15) - 3/5/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
TOLEDO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 3-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 2-1 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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C MICHIGAN (10 - 20) at BOWLING GREEN (16 - 14) - 3/5/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in March games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 2-1 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 2-1 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GONZAGA (25 - 5) vs. ST MARYS-CA (26 - 5) - 3/5/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
GONZAGA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
ST MARYS-CA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GONZAGA is 104-75 ATS (+21.5 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
ST MARYS-CA is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 5-3 against the spread versus ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 5-3 straight up against ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FAIRFIELD (18 - 13) vs. LOYOLA-MD (22 - 8) - 3/5/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOYOLA-MD is 3-3 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
FAIRFIELD is 4-2 straight up against LOYOLA-MD over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Northern Illinois's last 9 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games when playing Northern Illinois
MIAMI (OHIO) vs. TOLEDO
Miami (Ohio) is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toledo
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toledo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami (Ohio)
Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. BOWLING GREEN
Central Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Central Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Bowling Green is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Central Michigan
Bowling Green is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
BALL STATE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ball State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Western Michigan
Ball State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Western Michigan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Michigan's last 6 games
GONZAGA vs. ST. MARY'S
No trends available
St. Mary's is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
St. Mary's is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Gonzaga
Monday's Top College Basketball Trends
BOWLING GREEN is 11-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses (vs C Michigan)
LOYOLA-MD is 10-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite (vs Fairfield)
N TEXAS is 13-2 ATS after a conference game (vs Arkansas St)
1-11 ATS in road games after a combined score of 115 points or less (vs W Kentucky)