College Basketball Knowledge
North Carolina won its last 12 games since 84-82 loss at Texas back on Dec 12; Tar Heels beat Louisville 70-60 in ACC tourney LY, after home teams won both regular season meetings (UNC lost by 10 in OT here). Louisville got waxed at home by Virginia Saturday, trailing 29-14 at half. Cardinals' best win is #40 Florida State; they're 0-3 against teams ranked higher than that. ACC home favorites of 4 or less points are 6-4.
Oakland won five of last six games, but lone loss was 90-73 at home to Northern Kentucky Jan 19; Norse made 11-25 on arc, shot 60% inside arc. Grizzlies scored 93 ppg in winning first three Horizon road games; all three of their league losses are at home. NKU won four of its last six games after starting season 4-10; they're 2-3 in Horizon home games. Horizon single digit home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread.
Houston won in double OT Saturday; Rob Gray had 31 but sprained an ankle late in game, is doubtful here. SMU beat Houston 77-73 at home Jan 19, outscoring Cougars 24-8 on foul line, its third straight series win. Mustangs are 3-1 on AAC road, winning by 12-24-15 points; they lost last road game, at Temple. AAC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 6-5 vs spread. Houston won last two games after losing previous four.
Florida State made 9-17 on arc in 85-78 win at NC State Jan 13; FSU is 5-3 in last eight series games, but 2-3 in last five played here. Seminoles are 4-2 in last six games, is bubble team; they split four ACC home tilts, losing to UNC/Pitt. single digit home favorites are 11-14 vs the spread. Wolfpack lost seven of last nine games; they're 1-3 on ACC road, with only win as huge underdog at Pittsburgh.
Baylor won seven of last eight games, with only loss to Oklahoma here; Bears lost four of last six games with Texas, but won three of last four in Waco, with wins by 5-7-23 points. Baylor is 3-1 at home in Big X, with wins by 17-28-7 points. Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-3 vs spread. Longhorns won five of last six games, losing by 9 at Kansas; they're 1-3 on Big X road, losing by 8-1-9 points, winning at West Va.
Iona made 14-30 on arc in 64-58 home win over St Peter's 10 days ago; they led by 21 with 11:07 left. Gaels are 10-3 in last 13 series games, but lost two of last three visits here. Iona is 2-3 in last five games, losing last two road games, at Rider/Fairfield. Peacocks lost last three games, by 6-31-16 points; they're 6-4 in MAAC despite playing seven road games. MAAC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 8-4 vs spread.
Monmouth forced 21 turnovers (+13) in 85-69 home win over Siena two weeks ago; game was 41-36 at half. Hawks won last three series games- they beat Saints by 19-6 LY. Monmouth is 13-2 in last 15 games, losing at Army/Manhattan; they're 3-2 as MAAC road favorites, with wins on road by 14-12-8-15 points. MAAC underdogs are 14-5 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
Fairfield scored 90 ppg in winning its last three games, after 9-9 start to season; Stags are 4-2 at home in MAAC, losing to Monmouth, St Pete's. Quinnipiac lost nine of last 11 games, but beat Niagara here on Saturday; they won three of last four games with Fairfield; all four games were decided by 8 or less points. Bobcats won last two visits here, by 1-8 points. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points ae 4-9 vs spread.
Chattanooga outscored Citadel 18-6 over last 3:58 to pull out 84-78 win on road Jan 2; Mocs won last six series games, four by 6 or less points. Chattanooga won five games in a row, 12 of last 13; they won all three home games, by 12-19-10 points. Citadel is 3-2 in last five games; their last three losses were all by seven or less points or in OT. SoCon home favorites of 8+ points are 5-2 against the spread.
Mercer led 36-15 at half of 69-50 home win over Samford Jan 2, its third straight series win- they won 62-61 (-4.5) here LY. Bears lost last two road games, both in OT; they won last two games by 15-15, after going OT three games in row before that. SoCon home underdogs of 6 or less points are 3-5 vs spread. Samford lost six of last seven games, splitting four SoCon home games, beating Citadel, Western Carolina.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
North Carolina at Louisville
It's top-ranked North Carolina against Louisville Monday night at KFC Yum! Center. Tar Heels improved their record to 19-2 (9-11 ATS) on the season, 8-0 (3-5 ATS) in the ACC with an easy 89-62 home win over Boston College as a -26.5-point favorite. In their last game the Cardinals lost 63-47 at home to Virgina as -5.5 point favorite dropping to 17-4 (8-9 ATS) on the campaign, 6-2 SU/ATS within the conference.
These two conference rivals met three times last year. Tar Heels won the first meeting in Chapel Hill 72-71 but lost the cash as -3.0 point chalk. Cardinals returned the favor in Louisville defeating UNC 78-68 in OT cashing as 5 point home underdogs. In the third matchup, Tar Heels prevailed 70-60 as -2.5 point conference tournament favorites.
Backing either team has it's challenges. UNC is ridding a 5-8 ATS skid and 6-11-2 ATS slump. Cardinals carry a 2-8 ATS rcord its last ten on the hardwood. However, were rolling the dice with UNC. The Tar Heels with five players in double digits netting a solid 85.8 points/game on 48.5% shooting, 30.8% from long range take advantage of Cardinals struggling to keeping the ball out of their own basket last three allowing opponents 72.3 PPG on 47.7 % from the field, 31.7% from outside.
Big Monday Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The month of February gets off to a hot start in men’s college basketball with a pair of huge matchups featuring a trio of nationally ranked teams as part of ESPN’s Big Monday slate.
Starting in the ACC, the No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels will head to Kentucky to face the No. 16 Louisville Cardinals and the backend of Monday’s ESPN double-header is a Big 12 battle between the Texas Longhorns and the No. 17 Baylor Bears in Waco.
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 16 Louisville Cardinals
Opening Odds: Louisville -1½, 151
Betting Matchup
North Carolina is riding a 12-game straight-up winning streak following Saturday’s 88-62 win against Boston College, but it was just the third time the Tar Heels covered against the spread in their last eight games. The total went OVER the 146½-point line in that game and it has gone OVER in 10 of their last 13 outings. North Carolina is the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation with an average of 85.8 points a game and it is also ranked fourth in assists with 18.8 a game.
The Cardinals fell to 6-2 SU in conference play following Saturday’s 63-47 loss to Virginia as five-point home favorites. They are now just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and they have failed to cover in their last three games as favorites. The total stayed UNDER the closing 129½-point line in that game after going OVER in their previous three contests. Louisville’s defense is still one of the best in the nation in points-allowed; giving-up an average of just 60.2 points a game,
Betting Trends
The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 10 road games.
The Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on Monday, but they have failed to cover in six of their last seven games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven home games.
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in the last four meetings and it has a 3-2 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in the last two meetings after going OVER in the previous six games between the two.
Texas Longhorns at No. 17 Baylor Bears
Opening Odds: Baylor - 4½, 139.5
Betting Matchup
Texas has won five of its last six games both SU and ATS following Saturday’s 72-58 victory against Vanderbilt in a non-conference clash as a 2½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER 136 in that game and it has now stayed UNDER in three of its last four games. The Longhorns opened-up a 15 point lead over the Commodores at the half and guards Eric Davis and Kerwin Roach Jr. came off the bench to combine for 28 points to help pace the win. Texas is averaging 73.2 points a game and it is shooting 43.5 percent from the field.
The Bears have won seven of their last eight games SU, but after failing to cover in this past Saturday’s 83-73 victory against Georgia as 11½-point home favorites in another Big 12/SEC showdown they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four outings. The total went OVER 138½ points in that win and it has gone OVER in three of their last four games. Baylor is the top team in the nation went it comes to assists with 20.2 a game and senior guard Lester Medford has led the way with 7.1 assists a game.
Betting Trends
The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record and the total has stayed UNDER in 11 of their last 14 conference games.
The Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and the have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games played at home.
Head-to-head in this Big 12 tilt, the road team has covered in eight of the last 11 meetings and the total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine games played at Baylor.
No. 13 SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars
Opening Odds: SMU -5½, 146
Betting Matchup
SMU bounced back from a stunning 89-80 loss to the Temple Owls on Jan. 24 as a six-point road favorite with a solid 80-68 victory over Memphis this past Saturday as an 11-point favorite at home. The total stayed UNDER 149½ points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games. The loss to the Owls snapped a SU winning streak of 18 games and the Mustangs are now 19-1 SU with a 12-0 record at home. Their lineup boasts six players scoring in double figures led by senior guard Nic Moore’s 15.7 points a game. SMU is averaging 80 points a game and it is shooting an effective 50.6 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from three-point range.
Houston comes into this AAC tilt with a two-game SU winning streak after dropping its previous four conference matchups. The Cougars are 5-4 SU in the AAC this season with a 4-4-1 record ATS. They knocked-off East Carolina in a wild 97-93 victory this past Saturday in a game that ended as a PUSH. The total went OVER the closing 144-point line and it has now gone OVER in three of their last four games. Houston is averaging 78.6 points a game, but this average has fallen to 71.3 points in its first nine conference games.
Betting Trends
The Mustangs have failed to cover in five of their last seven games following a SU win and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven road games.
The Cougars are 8-3 in their last 11 home games and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five home games.
The underdog in this AAC matchup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in six of the last eight games between the two.
UNC, Louisville clash
By Sportsbook.ag
NORTH CAROLINA (19-2, 8-0 ACC) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (17-4, 6-2 ACC)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -1, Total: 148
No. 2 North Carolina looks to remain perfect in ACC play on Monday night when it visits a No. 19 Louisville team just two days removed from a humiliating home loss.
The Tar Heels have ripped off 12 straight wins since a buzzer-beating loss at Texas on Dec. 12, but are just 5-7 ATS during this span. They have shot at least 50% in eight of these dozen straight wins and are facing a Cardinals team that just allowed a season-high 58% FG in Saturday's 63-47 loss to Virginia; their first home defeat of the season. After starting the season 6-1 ATS, Louisville is a dreadful 2-8 ATS in its past 10 contests.
These schools met three times in the Cardinals inaugural ACC campaign last year with both teams winning at home and the Tar Heels taking the rubber match 70-60 in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals. While UNC shot 46% threes and 88% FT in that victory, Louisville made only 18% threes (4-of-22) and 60% FT (12-of-20).
There are plenty of reasons for bettors to choose either side on Monday, as the Heels are 64-40 ATS after four straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997, and are 54-36 ATS in February games in this same span. The Cardinals are 18-7 ATS following a double-digit conference loss under head coach Rick Pitino, and their Monday opponent is 2-9 ATS versus good shooting teams (45%+ FG) after 15+ games in the past two seasons.
North Carolina's offense is difficult to contain with 85.8 PPG (4th in nation) on 48.5% FG (20th in D-I), but shoots a woeful 30.8% threes (312th in nation). The Heels are outstanding at handling the basketball with 18.8 APG (4th D-I) and 10.5 TOPG (17th in nation) for a stellar 1.79 assist-to-turnover ratio (2nd in D-I). This team is always aggressive on the glass with a +9.4 rebounding margin (13th in nation) and 14.0 offensive RPG (17th in D-I). But this defense isn’t great, as it allows 70.2 PPG (147th in nation) on 42.0% FG (113th in D-I) and a dreadful 37.2% threes (301st in nation).
F Brice Johnson leads the team with 16.8 PPG and 10.2 RPG and has recorded 12 double-doubles this season. He shoots a blistering 62% FG (13th in nation) and also has 1.3 blocks per game. Johnson took over the ACC Quarterfinals matchup with Louisville last season when he scored 18 of his 22 points in the second half.
PG Marcus Paige had 13 in that victory and has been steady all season with 59 assists and only 13 turnovers (4.5 Ast/TO ratio). This has helped him lead this team despite seeing his numbers drop across the board from 14.1 PPG, 40% threes, 87% FT and 4.5 APG last season to 12.7 PPG, 33% threes, 74% FT and 3.9 APG this season.
The Heels have three other double-digit scorers in G Joel Berry II (12.6 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.6 SPG), F Kennedy Meeks (11.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and swingman Justin Jackson (11.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.1 APG). Berry is the best shooter on the team at 38% threes, while Meeks provides muscle inside with 58% FG. Jackson is best when driving to the basket, as evidenced by his strong 56% two-point FG rate and feeble 21% threes.
Louisville averages a strong 79.3 PPG (50th in D-I) on an efficient 48.5% FG (22nd in nation) and 36.8% threes (78th in D-I). The team turns the ball over just 12.0 times per game (88th in nation) and also crashes the glass with a +10.4 RPG margin (8th in D-I) and 14.6 offensive RPG (10th in nation). The Cardinals have an excellent defense that allows only 60.2 PPG (5th in D-I) on 37.7% FG (6th in nation) and 30.7% threes (30th in D-I), but those numbers have risen to 70.5 PPG on 46.2% FG allowed over the past four games.
Louisville has three double-digit scorers that pace the offense in G Damion Lee (16.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.6 SPG), G Trey Lewis (12.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.4 APG) and C Chinanu Onuaku (10.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG). The senior Lee has scored at least 10 points in every game except for two, the team's past two losses to Clemson and Virginia, where he was held to six points in each defeat on a combined 0-for-11 threes.
Lee, who played his first three collegiate seasons at Drexel, is shooting a career-best 46% FG to go along with 36% threes and 87% FT. Fellow senior transfer Lewis is also coming off a brutal performance versus Virginia (4 points on 1-of-6 FG) which followed a 22-point night at Virginia Tech on Wednesday. Lewis is knocking down 40% threes and 83% FT this season after draining 42% threes at Cleveland State last season.
The 6-foot-10 Onuaku did not attempt a single shot versus Virginia on Saturday and committed five turnovers in 19 minutes of action. He'll be needed to keep the UNC big men off the boards, and assuming his illness doesn't limit him too much, Onuaku will be expected to grab at least 10 rebounds for the eighth time in 10 games. He also has multiple blocks on 11 separate occasions this year.
Six-foot-9 sophomore F Jaylen Johnson (5.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG) could also see more action than his typical 17.0 MPG this season to try to combat Carolina's size. In Wednesday's win at Virginia Tech, Johnson had 11 points, nine rebounds and three assists.