Game of the Day: Oklahoma State at Baylor
By Covers.com
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears (-4, 145)
While Marcus Smart was powerless to stop Oklahoma State from dropping its sixth straight game over the weekend, Baylor’s Kenny Chery put on a show many expect from the Cowboys’ star. The Bears, who host the Cowboys in a battle between the two most disappointing teams in the Big 12 on Monday, snapped a four-game home losing streak with Saturday’s double-overtime win against Kansas State. Chery finished with 20 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds to post the sixth triple-double in school history.
Chery’s career game could serve as salt in the wound for Oklahoma State and Smart, who sat out Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma and will miss Monday as he completes his three-game suspension for shoving Texas Tech fan Jeff Orr on Feb. 8. The Cowboys are in the midst of their longest losing streak since 2008 after beginning conference play with a 4-2 mark and, like Baylor, face an uphill battle to qualify for the NCAA Tournament without a strong finish. Oklahoma State could help its cause with a win on the road, where it is 1-5 in league play.
LINE HISTORY: The Bears are early 4-point faves.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oklahoma State (-9.1) - Baylor Bears (-1.0) - Home Court (-3.0) = Oklahoma State -5.1
INJURY WATCH: Oklahoma State - Marcus Smart (Out - suspension)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “(Marcus Smart is) so talented defensively, and that’s what Okie State will miss the most when he is out." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Baylor won outright in the earlier meeting as an 11.5-point road underdog, which is a bit surprising considering the home team is still 12-3 ATS in the past 15 meetings in this series and both teams have played better at home this year. In fact, when excluding neutral court games, the home team is 29-11 SU in all Oklahoma State and Baylor games this season." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-9 SU, 8-13 ATS, 13-8 O/U): Phil Forte III entered Saturday 41-of-41 from the foul line at home, but went 1-of-4 as the Cowboys missed 10 of their 22 free throws in a 77-74 loss. Four of the team’s last five setbacks have been by six points or fewer and fatigue may be playing a factor as the starters have played 341 of a possible 400 minutes over the last two games. “We had some tired guys out there…they're down. This is as down of a locker room that I've seen,” coach Travis Ford told reporters after the game.
ABOUT BAYLOR (16-9 SU, 7-11-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Isaiah Austin – the Bears’ athletic 7-1 center – took advantage of an undersized Kansas State front line with a career-high nine blocks and could enjoy similar success against the Cowboys, who do not give regular minutes to a player taller than 6-8 Kamari Murphy. Brady Heslip, who drained half of Baylor’s season-high 16 3-pointers in Wednesday’s rout of Texas Christian, went 1-of-8 beyond the arc on Saturday. Heslip had knocked down 26 of his previous 49 3-point attempts since joining the starting lineup five games earlier.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baylor.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings in Baylor.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 64.5 percent of the wagers are on Baylor -4.
Big Monday Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
North Carolina at Florida State
Some offshore betting shops opened North Carolina (17-7 straight up, 13-11 against the spread) as a 1.5-point favorite for Monday's ACC showdown in Tallahassee. However, as of early Sunday night, most books had the Seminoles favored by one point.
Roy Williams' team is on fire with six straight wins both SU and ATS, including Saturday's 75-71 win over Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point home favorite. James Michael McAdoo was the catalyst for the Tar Heels, producing 24 points and 12 rebounds. Marcus Paige buried 5-of-6 attempts from 3-point land and finished with 18 points, four assists and four steals.
Paige and McAdoo form an outstanding 1-2 punch. McAdoo, the junior power forward, averages 15.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Paige averages team-highs in scoring (17.1 PPG) and assists (4.5 APG).
FSU (15-10 SU, 13-10 ATS) is desperate for a quality win over UNC because it has lost five of its last seven games both SU and ATS. The Seminoles are No. 59 in the RPI Rankings. They are just 2-6 against the RPI Top 50 and 5-9 versus the Top 100.
FSU picked up a mandatory 67-60 win at Wake Forest as a two-point road favorite. Ian Miller knocked down 5-of-7 shots from deep and scored a game-high 25 points. Aaron Thomas added 18 points, 14 rebounds and four steals.
Leonard Hamilton's squad has won eight of its 11 home games while going 5-4 ATS. Depending on if and how the line moves, this could end up being the first home underdog situation of the season for the Seminoles.
UNC is No. 27 in the RPI Rankings. The Tar Heels are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50 and 8-5 versus the Top 100.
Although the 'over' has hit in six of its last eight games, UNC has still seen the 'under' go 12-11 overall.
The 'under' is 14-8-1 overall for FSU, 5-4 in its home games.
UNC has won three in a row over FSU both SU and ATS, including a 77-72 win as a three-point underdog in Tallahassee last year. The 'over' is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.
ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Oklahoma State at Baylor
Both of these teams have been fading fast and they're both in dire need of a victory Monday night in Waco. A few offshore shops opened Baylor (16-9 SU, 7-11-1 ATS) as a 5.5-point home favorite, but that number was reduced to four by early Sunday night.
After losing eight of its first 10 Big 12 games, Baylor has won back-to-back contests. The Bears cruised to an easy win at TCU last week and then pulled out a miracle win and cover Saturday. They trailed Kansas State nearly the entire game and were down 30-21 at intermission. But down three on the final possession, an offensive rebound led to a pass out to Brady Heslip, who hadn't made a shot all day but buried a rushed 3-ball at the buzzer to force overtime. The game would go to a second overtime and in that extra session it was all Baylor. The Bears got the scoring in double OT started with a 3-pointer off the backboard. That was ominous sign for Kansas State backers like me. Gamblers on the Wildcats as five-point underdogs suffered a painful loss as Baylor pulled away to win 87-73.
Kenny Cherry was the catalyst against Kansas State, producing a triple-double with 20 points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds and three steals. The winners also got a double-double from Cory Jefferson, who had 21 points and 11 rebounds. Isaiah Austin added 18 points, seven boards and nine blocked shots.
Oklahoma State (16-9 SU, 8-13 ATS) has lost six in a row and seven of its last eight to fall out of the Top 25 and into the heart of the bubble conversation. Even worse for our purposes, the Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive contests. They came out on the wrong side of a 77-74 decision in a gut-wrenching home loss to Oklahoma on Saturday.
In the Bedlam setback vs. OU, Markel Brown scored 26 points and grabbed nine rebounds. Le'Bryan Nash finished with 15 points and 10 boards.
Oklahoma State star Marcus Smart (17.5 PPG) is 'out' Monday as he serves the third and final game of a suspension stemming from shoving a fan in a loss at Texas Tech.
This is a revenge game for Oklahoma State When these Big 12 rivals met in Stillwater on February 1, Baylor captured a 76-70 win over the Cowboys as an 11.5-point road underdog. Heslip hit six 3's and scored a team-high 20 points. Rico Gathers added 14 points and six rebounds, while Jefferson finished with 11 points and 13 boards. In the losing effort, Brown had a game-high 24 points. Nash had 19 points and six boards, while Smart was held to 15 points on 3-of-14 shooting from the field.
Travis Ford's team is No. 42 in the RPI Rankings. OSU is 3-8 vs. the RPI Top 50, 6-8 against the RPI Top 100. The Cowboys' best wins have come over Colorado, Texas and Memphis.
Baylor is No. 49 in the RPI, going 4-7 against the Top 50 and 5-8 versus the Top 100.
The 'over' is on a 6-2 run for the Cowboys to improve to 13-8 overall.
The 'over' has hit in three straight Baylor games. The Bears have seen the 'over' go 11-7 overall, but the 'under' is 5-4 in their home games.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets
I wish Bill Raftery was the analyst for every college basketball game I watch. I also wish there was an auto-mute button for Seth Davis.
Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky scored 17 of his game-high 25 points, including a dagger step-back trey off the dribble at crunch time, to lead the Badgers to a huge 75-62 win at Michigan as 4.5-point underdogs. The Wolverines trailed by 15 at halftime, but they cut the deficit down to three with more than five minutes left. However, Wisconsin promptly answered with back-to-back triples from Josh Gasser and Kaminsky and cruised into the winner's circle from there.
Nebraska beat a top-10 opponent on the road for the first time in 17 years Sunday when it went into East Lansing and emerged with a 60-51 win at Michigan State as a 13.5-point underdog. The Cornhuskers hooked up money-line supporters with an incredible +900 payout (paid $100 on $900 wagers). If you haven't seen Nebraska junior Terran Petteway play recently, you're missing out. This dude is a beast who took over at crunch time in a win at Northwestern last Saturday. He did the bulk of the work Sunday, too, finishing with 23 points and five rebounds. Let's all welcome Nebraska to the bubble-banter conversations we're going to be having in the upcoming weeks. The Cornhuskers had an RPI of 65 before beating the Spartans, so I would think they'll get a bump up into the 50s. They are 6-6 in Big Ten play and have a shot at winning all of their six remaining games: against Penn State, Purdue, at Illinois, Northwestern, at Indiana and Wisconsin. I think Nebraska will be favored in three of the four home games and will be very short 'dogs at Illinois and at Indiana.
Behind strong performances from seniors Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather and Patric Young, Florida captured its first win at Rupp Arena since 2007 on Saturday night in Lexington. The Gators beat Kentucky 69-59 as 2.5-point underdogs. The 128 combined points stayed 'under' the 130.5-point total. UF has now seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5-1 overall clip.
On Sunday, I asked Kenny White of DonBest what his line would be if Florida and Syracuse met this week in Omaha. White would make the Gators two-point favorites.
I asked Cecil Hurt, the long-time Alabama beat writer for the Tuscaloosa News, about the status of Anthony Grant last week. In his fifth season as the head man for the Crimson Tide, Grant has only one NCAA Tournament appearance and zero wins. Hurt indicated that it could go either way depending on how Alabama finishes the season. In other words, the school doesn't want to pay a class act like Grant nearly $10 million to get lost. He has five years at $1.9 million per left on his contract. However, Saturday's loss at South Carolina didn't help Grant's cause.
College Basketball Information
Wm Mary (-3) beat NC-Wilmington 54-50 Feb 5, their third win in row vs Seahawks, who were 1-6 from line. Tribe won five of its last seven games, but both losses were at home. CAA home favorites of 9+ points are 3-5 vs spread. UNCW won two of last three games after starting out 0-10 in CAA; they're 4-2-1 as road underdogs; six of their seven losses on road came by 9 or less points, or in overtime.
Delaware won its last 13 games, is 11-0 in CAA; they were underdogs in three of four CAA road games. Blue Hens (-6.5) beat Towson 83-76 Jan 25, in foulfest with both sides taking 39+ FTs. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-15 vs spread. First road game in 19 days for Hens-- seven of their 10 CAA wins are by 7 or less points. Towson won four home games in a row- they're 3-3 as a CAA home favorite.
North Carolina won/covered its last six games; this is trap game, since they play Duke Thursday, but Tar Heels won at Ga Tech/Notre Dame in last two road games, after losing first three. UNC won five of last six vs Florida State, sweeping FSU by 5-21-21 points LY. Seminoles lost five of last seven games- they're 3-3 at home in ACC. ACC home teams are 8-19 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points.
Oklahoma State lost its last six games, losing by 12-4-19 points in last three road games; this is last game of Smart's 3-game suspension. OSU lost 76-70 (-11) at home to Baylor Feb 1- Bears made 11-23 from arc. Cowboys lost last three visits to Waco by 19-41-10 points. Baylor won in double OT Saturday, its second win in row after a 1-7 skid. Big X home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-3 vs spread.
Weber State won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they're 3-1 as road favorites, winning road games by 12-9-20 points, with losses at No Colorado/Sacramento. Wildcats won three in row, 10 of last 11 games vs Idaho State, winning 65-59 (-9) at home Jan 20; Wildcats made 12 of 25 from arc, were -7 (13-6) in turnovers. Big Sky home underdogs of 6 or less points are 11-5. Bengals are 5-2 at home (both losses are by 5).
Davidson (-22) beat Citadel 62-43 at home Feb 1, but they trailed by a point early in second half; Wildcats won their last eight games, are 6-0 as SoCon road favorites, with five road wins by 11+ points. Citadel is 2-7 vs spread in last nine games; they're 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 4-5-13-18-21 points at home. SoCon home underdogs are 2-15 against the spread. Davidson is making 45.8% of its 3's in league play.
Georgia State lost at Troy Saturday, its first Sun Belt loss in 11 games; Panthers are 2-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 9-1-26-20-10 points- they covered five of last seven games overall. Texas State is 2-3 as road underdog, losing road games by 23-5-4-7 points- they're 4-1 vs spread in last five games overall. Sun Belt home favorites of 8 or less points are 5-10 vs spread. Georgia State has 3-game lead for #1 seed.
Armadillosports.com
College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Oklahoma State at Baylor
Two teams headed in opposite direction square of in Waco when Baylor Bears (16-9, 7-11-1 ATS) host Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-9, 8-13 ATS). Bears open the week with a boat load of confidence having won back-back games including a most recent 87-73 OT victory over K-State which snapped a four-game home losing streak. On the other side, Cowboys playing without Marcus Smart their top scorer dropped a 74-77 heartbreaker at home against in-state rival Oklahoma and hit the floor on a six game slide. Cowboys upended 76-70 as 11.5 point faves by Bears earlier in Stillwater are a tempting revenge play. However, momentum and home court advantage on Baylor's side we suggest sticking with small fave Bears who enter having won/covered four of the past five meetings and own a smart 6-1 ATS streak hosting Pokes. If that were not enough, Bears are facing a team that struggles cashing on the road posting a 1-8 ATS mark last nine away from Stillwater including 1-5 ATS in conference play.
UNC at Florida State Preview
By Tim Nolan
Playbook.com
UNC has won their last six games. The Tar Heels are 7-4 in the ACC after an 0-3 start. P.J. Hairston was expected to lead the team in his junior season but he hasn't played a minute due to him being suspended from the team. Leslie McDonald missed eight games and when he returned it took away from the team chemistry. McDonald started the year shooting only 35% from the field but has improved. The team has adjusted and played much better after putting Kennedy Meeks in the starting lineup along with Marcus Paige, James Michael McAdoo, J. P. Tokoto and McDonald. Freshman Joel James has seen less action and forward Brice Johnson has been a force off the bench as he averages 10 points per game.
UNC has played overs in the second half in six of their last eight games. Here are their second half totals with their opponent:
Pittsburgh 80
Notre Dame 85
Maryland 72
NCSU 91
Georgia Tech 92
Clemson 83
Virginia 70
Boston College 85
UNC plays at Florida State and the Seminoles have played their share of second half overs as well. Here are their last few results:
Wake Forest 75
Miami 90
Maryland 79
NCSU 72
Notre Dame 76
Virginia 73
Charlotte 86
FSU is led by Thomas at 13.3 ppg, White 12.8 ppg and Ian Miller 12.7 ppg. Thomas and Miller shoot close to 86% from the line so they can make late free throws. UNC only shoots 62% from the foul line but Marcus Paige is at 91%, so if UNC is ahead near the end of the game he will have the ball.
The Tar Heels like to play fast under coach Roy Williams and the second halves have shown that lately.
Take UNC/FSU over in the second half. Two units if the total is under 74 and one unit if it is 74 or higher.