College Basketball Knowledge
Georgetown won 93-73 at St John's Jan 13, making 10-24 on arc in tilt that saw both teams take 30+ FTs. Hoyas lost five of last seven games since then- they lost two of last three home games. Johnnies lost last 10 visits here, last five by double digits. St John's lost its last 14 games; its last win was Dec 13 over Syracuse. Red Storm is is 0-5 on Big East road, with three losses by 18+. Big East double digit home favorites are 7-6.
Oklahoma State waxed TCU 69-48 at home Jan 2, in game they led by 2 at half; Cowboys are 6-1 vs TCU in Big X play, but lost 70-55 in LY's visit here, after winning by 17-22 in previous two visits. OSU is 0-5 on Big X road- they did win at Auburn 10 days ago. Big X home underdogs of 4 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. TCU lost nine of last 11 games; its wins were by 12 over Tennessee, by 1 over Texas.
Duke is 1-5 this season if they score less than 80 points, 16-1 if they score 80+- they lost two of last three home games. Louisville has no postseason next month; they'll treat games like this as their Super Bowl. Duke won 63-52 at Louisville LY, in first game as ACC rivals. Cardinals are 3-1 on ACC road, losing at Clemson by 4; they pounded BC in first game since they were banned from postseason. ACC home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-4 vs spread.
Oklahoma won its last four games with Texas, winning last seven here, five by 9+ points. Sooners lost at K-State Saturday; they're 5-0 at home in Big X, with three of last four home wins by 10+ points. Texas is 7-1 in its last eight games, losing by 9 at Kansas; they held last four foes under 60 points. Longhorns are 2-3 on Big X road, also losing by 1 at TCU, 8 at Texas Tech. Big X home favorites of 8+ points are 9-7.
Quick turnaround for Notre Dame after upsetting North Carolina in last game Saturday. Irish re 2-3 on ACC road, losing last two on foreign soil, at Syracuse/Miami. Clemson is 5-0 at home in ACC, all vs top 60 teams; Tigers are 0-3 vs Notre Dame in ACC play, losing by 4-2-14 points- they're 2-3 in last five games overall, with all three losses on road. ACC home teams are 9-7 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less. .
Samford shot 69% inside arc, was up 49-24 at half in 94-74 home win vs Citadel Jan 5, ending 3-game series skid. Bulldogs are 1-9 since then and lost their last six games- they're 0-6 on SoCon road- this is Samford's 1st road game in 16 days. Citadel is 3-4 in its last seven games, losing its last two games by 40-16 points; they're 2-4 at home in SoCon. SoCon home underdogs of less than 5 points are 2-7 vs spread.
Quinnipiac won its last three games after starting season 5-13; they hit 13-26 on arc in last game, are just 35.3% for season. Bobcats split four games with St Peter's in MAAC play, going 1-1 in each gym- they're 2-3 on MAAC road. Peacocks lost last five games, scoring 55.8 ppg- they're 2-2 at home in MAAC, losing last two home games by 31-8. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-7 vs spread.
Wofford won 65-61 at VMI Jan 5; they're 3-0 vs Keydets in conference play, winning 75-70 in LY's game here. Terriers are 4-1 at home in league play, with three wins by 11+ points, losing only to Chattanooga- SoCon double digit home favorites are 6-2 vs spread. VMI lost 10 of its last 11 games, they're 0-6 on SoCon road with five losses by 15+ points- their only SoCon road loss by less than 15 was by 3 at The Citadel.
NC-Greensboro outscored Furman 7-0 over final 3:08 to nudge Paladins 67-66 back on Jan 5, its fourth win in last five series games. UNCG won four of last seven games after starting season 5-12; they're 1-4 on SoCon road, with only win by 7 at The Citadel. Furman won five of its last six games, losing by 8 at Chattanooga Saturday; they won last three games at home by total of seven points. SoCon single digit home favorites are 17-11 against the spread.
Chattanooga raced out to 29-7 lead, beat Mercer 74-62 at home Jan 5th, as home team is now 3-0 in this series since Bears joined SoSon. Mercer won seven of last nine games overall, with both losses in OT; they're 2-3 on SoCon road, with losses by 12-2-6 points. SoCon home underdogs of less than 5 points are 2-7 vs spread. Chattanooga won its last eight and 15 of last 16 games- their only loss was at Furman by 15.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Oklahoma St. at TCU
The Horned Frogs average a modest 68.7 points per game and limit the opposition to 69.5 points per contest. Whether it’s lock-down defense or a lack of offensive scoring ability the Horned Frogs are playing 'Under' the total consistently (5-12 O/U). Horned Frogs get a chance to keep 'Under' gamblers happy when they host Oklahoma State Cowboys as the series is 5-2 'Under' and Pokes are 8-2 'Under' when netting 70 or less points/game.
Texas at Oklahoma
Oklahoma Sooners fell to 19-3 (10-10 ATS) on the season with a 80-69 loss as -4.5 point road chalk at Kansas State in their last game. Lead by last year's BIG XII P.O.Y. Buddy Hield (25.6) along three other double digit scorers the Sooners are dropping 85.0 points/game while allowing opponents 72.0 per/contest.
In their last game, Texas Longhorns improved to 16-7 (11-11 ATS) on the campaign with a 69-59 win over Texas Tech covering the -9.5 point spot. Longhorns net 72.7 per/game with Isaiah Taylor leading the troops dropping 15.3 per/contest. Defensively, Longhorns give up 66.5 per/game on 39.6% from the field, 32.8% from long range.
Home court advantage will play a significant role in Oklahoma winning this contest. The Sooners tough to topple on home court have won eight straight in front of its frienzied home crowd including twelve consecutive hosting a Big-12 opponent. However, you bet Oklahoma at some risk. The Sooners carry into the contest a 4-7 record against the betting line in conference play and are a vig-losing 6-6 ATS last twelve hosting a Big-12 visitor. On the other side, Longhorns come in a money-making 6-1 ATS the past seven on the hardwood, 6-3 ATS last nine trips into Norman.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Big Monday on ESPN features a pair of interesting matchups in both the ACC and the Big 12.
In the opener, the Louisville Cardinals with go on the road to Durham in the first of two February showdowns against the unranked Duke Blue Devils.
Later Monday night, the Texas Longhorns get a shot at one of the top dogs in the conference when they go on the road to Norman to face Oklahoma.
No. 19 Louisville Cardinals at Duke Blue Devils
Opening Odds: Duke -4½, 146
Betting Matchup
The beleaguered Cardinals responded with a resounding 79-47 pasting of the Boston College Eagles as 20-point home favorites this past Saturday just a day after the team announced its self-imposed one-year postseason ban for some alleged wrongdoings. Louisville is now tied for the lead in the ACC at 8-2 straight-up with a 4-6 record against the spread. The total stayed UNDER the 127½-point line against BC and it has stayed UNDER in its last three games.
Along with the Cardinals’ issues off the court, they had to face the Eagles without the services of their top scorer Damion Lee. The senior guard missed that game with a knee injury and he is listed as questionable for Monday night. In 22 previous starts he has averaged 17 points while shooting 47.4 percent from the field. Louisville is averaging 79 points per game and hitting 48.3 percent of its shots.
Duke took a positive step towards moving back into the national rankings with Saturday’s 88-80 victory against NC State, but it failed to cover as an 11½-point home favorite. This was just the third SU win in the Blue Devils last seven games and during this slide they are a costly 2-5 ATS. The total went OVER the closing 152½-point line in that win after staying UNDER in five of their previous seven outings.
One of the biggest issues that Duke has had over the past few weeks is consistency in its scoring. The Blue Devils are averaging a healthy 84.8 points a game, which is the fifth-highest total in the nation, but this number has dropped to 77.3 points in their last seven games. The 88 points scored against NC State could be a good sign especially with sophomore guard Grayson Allen leading the way with a game-high 28 points. He is the second-highest scorer in the ACC this season with 20.9 PPG.
Betting Trends
The Cardinals have failed to cover in their last five road games and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven games on the road.
The Blue Devils are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games played at home.
Duke has won two of three meetings both SU and ATS since Louisville joined the ACC. The total went OVER in two of those three games.
Texas Longhorns at No. 1 Oklahoma Sooners
Opening Odds: Oklahoma -8, 147
Betting Matchup
Texas continues to stay in the hunt for the Big 12 regular season title at 7-3 SU in conference play and it is riding a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS following Saturday’s 69-59 victory against Texas Tech as a 9 ½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER 133½ points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in all four games during this current run.
Senior guard Javan Felix led all scorers in Saturday’s win with 20 points, but the main force behind the Longhorns’ success this season has been junior guard Isaiah Taylor. He leads the team in points (15.3) and assists (5.1) and he is shooting a team-best 44.4 percent from the field. Texas is averaging 72.7 PPG and it is shooting just 43.9 percent as a team.
This will probably be the second time this season that Oklahoma gives up the top spot in the AP Top 25 following Saturday’s stunning 80-69 road loss to Kansas State as a five-point favorite. It was the Sooners third conference loss against seven SU wins and they are now 4-6 ATS in those 10 games. The total went OVER 148 in Saturday’s loss and it has gone OVER in four of their last five games.
Buddy Hield is one of the top scorers in the nation with 25.6 PPG and the senior guard came close to matching that average against Kansas State with 23 points. The Sooners have three other players averaging at least 11 points a game as part of an offense that is ranked fourth in the nation in scoring (85.0 PPG). Hield is connecting on 52.4 percent of his shots from the field and he is shooting an effective 51.1 percent from three-point range.
Betting Trends
The Longhorns have covered ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four road games.
The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games at home. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine home games.
Head-to-head in this Big 12 tilt, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six games.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Louisville at Duke (-3.5, 147)
Louisville (19-4 SU, 10-9 ATS) just beat North Carolina at home last Monday, but now they’ll have to play Duke on the road. The Cardinals are a young and inexperienced team, so this road test will likely be more difficult tonight. Louisville did stay focused in an easy 79-47 blowout win over Boston College on Saturday.
Duke ended their 1-4 SU slide with back-to-back wins versus Georgia Tech and NC State, but the Blue Devils will be taking a step up in class tonight. Duke's offense has been strong this season, averaging 84.8 points per game on 47.8% FG (versus opponents that allow just 70.9 ppg on 42.8% FG). However, the Blue Devils have been weaker on defense, allowing 71.6 ppg on 43.6% FG (versus opponents that average 74.9 ppg on 44.8% FG). Louisville holds a substantial edge defensively as the Cardinals allow just 59.8 ppg on 37.6% FG this season (versus opponents that average 74.4 ppg on 44.8% FG).
Louisville visits Duke
By Sportsbook.ag
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (19-4, 8-2 ACC) at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (17-6, 6-4 ACC)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -4, Total: 146.5
A pair of ACC foes seeking a third straight win will collide in Durham on Monday night when Louisville visits Duke.
The Cardinals (10-9 ATS overall) made news on Friday with their self-imposed, one-year postseason ban for NCAA recruiting violations, but that didn't stop the team from destroying Boston College 79-47 the next day. They began the week with a 71-65 home win over then-No. 2 North Carolina, but have struggled a bit away from home this season at 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS.
The Blue Devils (10-11 ATS overall) are also unbeaten this month since falling from the Top-25 ranks, as they prevailed at Georgia Tech 80-71 on Tuesday and then beat NC State 88-80 at home on Saturday, but failed to cover the 11.5-point spread, dropping them to 6-5 ATS at home this season where they are 11-2 SU.
These schools are meeting for just the second time in ACC play, with Duke winning 63-52 on the road last year on Jan. 17, 2015. The schools also split a pair of neutral-court meetings three seasons ago with Louisville rolling to an 85-63 blowout in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight to avenge a 76-71 loss four months earlier.
There are plenty of positive betting trends for both schools on Monday, as the Cardinals are 26-12 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less (or pick) under head coach Rick Pitino, and are also 95-63 ATS (60%) after two straight ATS wins since 1997.
The Blue Devils are 17-6 ATS versus good defenses (64 or less PPG allowed) in the past two seasons, and are 32-13 ATS (71%) at home where the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997.
Louisville leads the nation in scoring margin at +19.1 PPG, as its offense puts up 79.0 PPG (50th in D-I) on 48.3% FG (22nd in nation) and 36.6% threes (84th in D-I), while the elite defense allows only 59.8 PPG (4th in nation) on 37.6% FG (7th in D-I) and 30.1% threes (18th in nation). This team is relentless on the glass with its +9.9 RPG margin (9th in D-I) and 14.5 offensive RPG (8th in nation), and forces many more turnovers (14.9 TOPG, 48th in D-I) than it commits (12.1 TOPG, 94th in nation). The biggest weakness for the team is foul shooting (68.8% FT, 203rd in D-I), but that number has risen to 72% FT (65-90) over the past four games.
Louisville has three double-digit scorers that pace the offense in G Damion Lee (17.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.6 SPG), G Trey Lewis (12.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.3 APG) and C Chinanu Onuaku (10.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG). The senior Lee has scored at least 10 points in every game except for two, the team's past two losses to Clemson and Virginia, where he was held to six points in each defeat on a combined 0-for-11 threes. Lee, who played his first three collegiate seasons at Drexel, is shooting a career-best 47% FG to go along with 38% threes and 88% FT. He lit up North Carolina for 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-7 threes) last Monday, but sat out Saturday's win with a bruised knee.
Lewis, who is also senior transfer, was able to pick up some of Lee's lost scoring with 16 points (9-of-9 FT) in 28 minutes on Saturday. Lewis is knocking down 39% threes and 85% FT this season after draining 42% threes at Cleveland State last season.
The 6-foot-10 Onuaku also had a great week with 20 points, 23 rebounds, five assists and two blocks in the pair of victories. The sophomore has now pulled down double-digit rebounds in nine of the past 11 contests, and grabbed six offensive rebounds in 14 minutes versus Duke last season.
Another key to this Cardinals' success is the play of G Quentin Snider (9.6 PPG, 3.7 APG) who ranks fourth in the ACC in Ast/TO ratio (2.7), but missed all four shots he took against Duke last season.
F Deng Adel (3.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG) logged 34 minutes on Saturday, which was 13 more than his previous high, and produced a well-rounded line of 13 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two steals, all of which were career highs for the freshman. He could have another big game on Monday going up against the Blue Devils underwhelming frontcourt.
Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging an eye-popping 84.8 PPG (5th in nation) on 47.8% FG (29th in D-I) and 39.1% threes (23rd in nation). This is a decent foul-shooting team (72.5% FT, 74th in D-I) that rarely turns the ball over (10.0 TOPG, 10th in nation), but has a pedestrian +2.7 RPG margin this season.
This offense needs to be super efficient, because its defense is not strong with 71.6 PPG allowed (172nd in D-I) on 43.6% FG (200th in nation) and 35.3% threes (224th in D-I).
Four different players average more than 11 points per game for Duke, led by Grayson Allen (20.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.0 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (16.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.6 BPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 16 points in a dozen straight games, where he has averaged 21.7 PPG while getting to the line 74 times (85% FT, 63-of-74). Allen has been especially hot during his team's two-game win streak with 55 points on 15-of-28 FG (54%) and 11-of-17 threes (65%).
The 6-foot-9 Ingram has not yet hit that freshman wall, recording 16 straight games of 13+ points, where he's averaged a whopping 19.5 PPG. Ingram has also done a better job of attacking the glass with 9.0 RPG over his past five contests.
The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are junior G Matt Jones (11.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) and freshman F/G Luke Kennard (12.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG). While Jones prefers to try his luck from long range (40% threes), Kennard loves driving to the hole and getting to the foul line where he is nearly automatic at 92% FT (71-of-77). Although Jones has been ice-cold during his past five games (6.8 PPG on 11-of-39 FG), Kennard is coming off a monstrous 26-point effort against NC State where he made 9-of-15 FG and 6-of-11 threes. This long-range accuracy came on the heels of a weak 3-of-19 clip from behind the arc in his previous four games.