Saturday Early Action
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Championship week continues as we count down to Selection Sunday tomorrow. Many automatic bids have been handed out while teams on the bubble are looking to solidify an at-large invitation. We'll take a look at three of the afternoon contests, starting with two old rivals getting together in Atlanta.
N.C. State vs. North Carolina
The Wolfpack continues to scratch and claw their way to a potential at-large berth following victories the last two days against Boston College and Virginia. The triumph over the Cavaliers as three-point underdogs helped out N.C. State, but a win over top-seeded North Carolina will leave the committee with zero doubts about handing the Wolfpack a berth.
The Tar Heels barely cashed as 15-point favorites in an 85-69 rout of Maryland on Friday, improving to 27-4 overall. UNC is stepping closer to a third showdown against Duke potentially in Sunday's conference championship, but first the Heels need to beat the Wolfpack for the third time this season. Roy Williams' squad covered in both victories over the Wolfpack, including a 74-55 drubbing of N.C. State in Chapel Hill as 13-point 'chalk.'
UNC is riding an 8-1 ATS run since the late meltdown to Duke at home in early February, including a 4-0 ATS mark when laying at least nine points. The Wolfpack has covered five consecutive games, while cashing the 'over' in seven of the previous eight contests.
UMass vs. St. Bonaventure
Both these teams picked up underdog victories on Friday, while the Minutemen pulled off a nice upset of Temple, 77-71. UMass takes on a St. Bonaventure squad that hung on to beat St. Joseph's, 71-68 as two-point 'dogs. The Minutemen picked up their 20th win over Temple, but UMass still looks to be on the tournament bubble.
In the only meeting of the season, UMass grabbed a 76-67 victory as three-point home favorites on February 8. The Minutemen rallied from a 10-point deficit, while taking an 18-point lead with four minutes in regulation to run away from the Bonnies. St. Bonaventure finished conference at 3-5 SU/ATS on the road, but the Bonnies owned a 9-0 SU/ATS mark in A-10 play as a favorite.
Inside the conference, UMass covered consecutive games four times (including Friday's win over Temple). However, the Minutemen failed to cash each instance following back-to-back covers, which is something to keep an eye on heading into Saturday.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
The Spartans still have an outside shot of claiming a top seed in the NCAA Tournament if Tom Izzo's club can win the Big 10 tourney. Michigan State attempts to beat Wisconsin for a third time this season on Saturday, as the Spartans dumped Iowa as 11½-point favorites, 92-75. The Badgers basically led from start to finish in Friday's victory over Indiana as short underdogs, 79-71, as Rob Wilson drilled seven treys in the win.
Michigan State took care of Wisconsin in Madison on January 3 in overtime, 63-60 as 6½-point underdogs. Both teams shot poorly from the field as the Badgers hit just 33% from the field, while the Spartans made 40% of their attempts. The Spartans pulled off the sweep in East Lansing on February 16, a 69-55 triumph as six-point 'chalk.' Michigan State shot significantly better the second time around against the Wisconsin defense by knocking down 52% from the floor.
The Badgers are in the midst of a 4-6 ATS run, but has cashed in their last two opportunities as an underdog against Ohio State and Indiana. The Spartans are rolling with a 9-4 ATS mark the last 13 games, including eight victories as a favorite.
SEC Tournament: Semifinals Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-9.5, N/A)
THE STORY: No. 19 Florida and No. 1 Kentucky are more accustomed to playing in the final of the SEC tournament, but meet this time in the semifinals. Their last three meetings in the tournament have come in the title game, with Kentucky winning in 2004 and 2011 and Florida prevailing in 2005. Kentucky handily dispatched the Gators twice during the regular season, winning by 20 in Lexington and by 15 in Gainesville in the regular season finale. Kentucky’s defense will be tested by Florida’s explosive offense, which leads the league in 3-point shooting.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (31-1): The Wildcats had their hands full in the first game of the tournament, but placed four in double figures and beat LSU with a strong second half. Kentucky won despite getting no points from Darius Miller and only two from Marquis Teague. Their ineffectiveness was offset by a pair of double-doubles from Terrence Jones and Anthony Davis, who sat much of the first half with foul trouble. Davis averaged 19 points and 9.0 rebounds in two games against Florida this year and Jones is averaging 13 points and 6.8 rebounds in five career games against the Gators.
ABOUT FLORIDA (23-9): Florida struggled to hold off Alabama in its quarterfinal, but used clutch free throw shooting (16 of 19) and 10 3-pointers to survive. The Gators broke a three-game losing streak, but were unable to get much traction against Alabama’s tough defense. Florida will need Patric Young to duplicate his effort in the season finale against Kentucky, where he had 21 points and nine rebounds against the Wildcats’ big guys. The Gators will need more production from Kenny Boynton, who had only seven points in the last meeting against Kentucky after getting 18 the first time around.
TRENDS:
- Kentucky is 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four meetings between the two teams.
- Florida is 0-4 against the spread in its last four.
- The over is 36-16 in Florida's last 52 overall.
TIP-INS:
1. Florida averages 10 3-pointers per game, but made only six in each game against Kentucky.
2. Florida has made 19 of 23 free throws in two games with Kentucky; the Wildcats are 18 for 22.
3. Florida reserve Casey Prather was available to play after returning from a lower back injury, but did not play against Alabama.
ACC Tournament: Semifinals Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
NC State Wolfpack vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-9.5, N/A)
THE STORY: Top-seeded North Carolina might not have ACC Defensive player of the Year John Henson for the ACC semifinals. Henson hurt his left wrist in Friday’s 85-69 victory over Maryland when he was fouled hard on a power move. While initial X-rays appeared negative, coach Roy Williams said Henson could not grip the ball after the injury. The 6-foot-11 Henson would come in handy against the Wolfpack, whose strong inside game powered them to a 67-64 victory over Virginia on Friday. North Carolina won the only regular season meeting, 86-74 at home on Feb. 21.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (28-4): Due to Henson’s injury, the Tar Heels got a glimpse of what James Michael McAdoo can do. The 6-9 freshman hit 5 of 8 shots for 14 points and grabbed eight rebounds in 29 minutes versus Maryland. He is only one of many offensive weapons, including Harrison Barnes (17.4 points, 5.1 rebounds) and ACC Player of the Year Tyler Zeller (16.3, 9.3). But Maryland coach Mark Turgeon said afterward that North Carolina is getting progressively better on defense, too.
ABOUT N.C. STATE (22-11): Sophomore forward C.J. Leslie hit 9 of 11 shots for 19 points and collected 14 rebounds to lead the Wolfpack past the Cavaliers, likely securing N.C. State’s NCAA tournament bid. The Wolfpack are nearly as gifted offensively as the Tar Heels. Point guard Lorenzo Brown ranks second in the ACC in assists (6.4). Forward Scott Wood has buried 15 of his 32 last 3-pointers and leads the conference in 3-point percentage (41.9).
TRENDS:
- The Tar Heels are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight.
- The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 against the number in their last five.
- The over is 7-1 in NC State's last eight.
TIP-INS:
1. Tar Heels point guard Kendall Marshall set the ACC record for assists in a season by dishing out 12 on Friday. He has 310, breaking the record of 303 set by Georgia Tech’s Craig Neal in 1987-88.
2. N.C. State is enjoying its first 20-win season since 2005-06.
3. North Carolina is seeking its third ACC tournament crown in the Roy Williams era.
MARSHALL (21 - 12) at MEMPHIS (25 - 8) - 3/10/2012, 11:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 4-1 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NC STATE (22 - 11) vs. N CAROLINA (28 - 4) - 3/10/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
NC STATE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
NC STATE is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
NC STATE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in conference tournament games since 1997.
NC STATE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 6-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 6-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FLORIDA ST (22 - 9) vs. DUKE (27 - 5) - 3/10/2012, 3:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 2-2 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-2 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MASSACHUSETTS (22 - 10) vs. ST BONAVENTURE (18 - 11) - 3/10/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST BONAVENTURE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-1 against the spread versus ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-1 straight up against ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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XAVIER (20 - 11) vs. SAINT LOUIS (25 - 6) - 3/10/2012, 3:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAINT LOUIS is 4-1 against the spread versus XAVIER over the last 3 seasons
XAVIER is 3-2 straight up against SAINT LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FLORIDA (23 - 9) vs. KENTUCKY (31 - 1) - 3/10/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 62-40 ATS (+18.0 Units) in March games since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 4-2 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 6-1 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OLE MISS (20 - 12) vs. VANDERBILT (22 - 10) - 3/10/2012, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 2-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
VANDERBILT is 3-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WISCONSIN (24 - 8) vs. MICHIGAN ST (25 - 7) - 3/10/2012, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 3-3 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 4-2 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OHIO ST (26 - 6) vs. MICHIGAN (24 - 8) - 3/10/2012, 4:10 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 7-1 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 6-2 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO (22 - 11) vs. ARIZONA (23 - 10) - 3/10/2012, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BAYLOR (27 - 6) vs. MISSOURI (29 - 4) - 3/10/2012, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MISSOURI is 4-0 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
MISSOURI is 3-1 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OHIO U (26 - 7) vs. AKRON (22 - 10) - 3/10/2012, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 5-2 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 4-3 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW MEXICO (26 - 6) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (26 - 6) - 3/10/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 5-2 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 5-2 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOUISVILLE (25 - 9) vs. CINCINNATI (24 - 9) - 3/10/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VERMONT (22 - 11) at STONY BROOK (22 - 8) - 3/10/2012, 11:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
STONY BROOK is 1-1 against the spread versus VERMONT over the last 3 seasons
STONY BROOK is 4-3 straight up against VERMONT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MCNEESE ST (17 - 14) vs. LAMAR (22 - 11) - 3/10/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAMAR is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
MCNEESE ST is 3-2 straight up against LAMAR over the last 3 seasons
Big Ten Tournament: Semifinals Preview and Picks
By Covers.com
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans (-4)
THE STORY: Top-seeded Michigan State will try to win its third straight game against No. 4 seed Wisconsin, which advanced to the Big Ten tournament semifinals behind a huge effort from an unlikely source. Rob Wilson, a little-used senior guard who averages 3.1 points, scored a career-high 30 and made seven 3-pointers in the Badgers’ 79-71 quarterfinal victory over Indiana. Wisconsin has won the last three meetings in the conference tournament, including a 65-63 victory in the 2008 semifinals. The Spartans, however, won the first two meetings this season by a combined 17 points and are coming off a 92-75 dismantling of eighth-seeded Iowa.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (24-8): Before his breakout performance, Wilson’s previous career high was 13 points in a victory over Michigan in 2010. But against the Hoosiers, he looked unstoppable, hitting 11 of 16 shots and misfiring on only three 3-point attempts. The Badgers have struggled offensively all season, averaging only 63 points and scoring fewer than 60 nine times. But Wilson could be the perimeter shooter they’ve been lacking. In the most recent meeting in mid-February, Wisconsin shot only 34 percent in a 69-55 loss at East Lansing.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (25-7): Playing without injured forward Branden Dawson, the Spartans responded in a big way against the Hawkeyes - turning in one of their best offensive performances of the season. Michigan State shot 70 percent in the first half and took a 55-39 halftime lead, an advantage they stretched to 28 midway through the second half. One concern, however, could be the Spartans’ leaky defense. They’ve allowed 70 or more in three straight games for the first time all year, and the Hawkeyes made 10 of 20 3-point attempts. Michigan State hasn’t won the Big Ten tournament since 2000, the same year it won the national championship.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 23-11-1 in Spartans' last 35 games following a win.
* Over is 7-1 in Badgers' last eight overall.
TIP-INS:
1. The Badgers last won the Big Ten crown in 2008. Their victory in the quarterfinals snapped a three-game losing streak in the conference tournament.
2. Michigan State is 16-12 all-time in the Big Ten tournament, including a 5-2 record as the top seed.
3. Bo Ryan became Wisconsin’s all-time wins leader at 266 with the victory over Indiana.
Pick: Wisconsin +4
NCAAB Preview
C-USA Tournament (Memphis)
Marshall is playing fourth day in row, including a triple OT game in its game Thursday; now they get true road game at Memphis. Tigers beat Thundering Herd twice this year, 83-76 (+8.5) on this floor Jan 28, then 87-67 (+2) at home Feb 25. Memphis won last five times they were in C-USA final, winning by 11-12-26-25-1 point. Marshall's bench played total of only 39 minutes yesterday; this is first time in a decade they've won more than one game in a conference tournament.
ACC Tournament (Atlanta)
Tar Heels' Henson hurt his left hand, played only seven minutes in Tar Heels' 85-69 win yesterday; doubtful they would play him here, even if he is able to go. North Carolina treats NC State like a pinata; they beat Wolfpack twice this year, 74-55 (-13) at home Jan 26, then 86-74 (-6) in Raleigh Feb 21. Wolfpack probably got themselves in NCAAs Friday when they beat Virginia- they only played seven guys, with all starters playing 29+ minutes. UNC won three of last four in this round.
Atlantic 14 Tournament (Atlantic City)
UMass upset top-seeded Temple yesterday, forcing 22 turnovers while making 9-16 from arc; Minutemen (-3) beat St Bonaventure 86-67 back on Feb 8, with Morgan making 6-7 behind arc in game UMass trailed by 3 at the half. Bonnies won six of last seven games; they used three guys 33+ minutes Friday, with Nicholson scoring 25 points with 10 boards- he is best player on floor. UMass is just 3-4 in last seven games; they're 3-6 against the spread as an underdog this season.
SEC Tournament (New Orleans)
Kentucky beat Florida twice this season, 78-58 (-9.5) in Lexington Feb 7, then 74-59 (-5) in Gainesville six days ago; Wildcats are 5-1 in last six SEC semifinals, with four of five wins by 14+ points. Florida is 5-0 last five times they got this far, but this is only second time they've got this far since Noah/Horford graduated. Kentucky's bench played 24 minutes Friday in game where they outscored LSU 23-8 from foul line. Florida failed to cover last three times they were an underdog.
Big Dozen Tournament (Indianapolis)
Over last nine years, Michigan State is 0-6 in this round, and they're not usually 0-6 at anything, so it makes you wonder; State beat Wisconsin twice this season, 63-60 (+6) in OT Jan 3, then 69-55 (-6) at home Feb 16. Only two Spartans played more than 25 minutes Friday in their easy win over Iowa- they played 10 subs. This is first time in four years Badgers are in Big Dozen semis, but Ryan is 4-0 when he gets here, with three of four wins by 3 or less points.
Pac-12 Tournament (Los Angeles)
Interesting that lower seeded team has won last three Pac-12 finals, with last four all decided by 4 or less points. Arizona is no lock for NCAAs; they need to win here, get first Pac-12 tourney title in last decade- they lost final in OT LY. Home teams won both Arizona-Colorado games this year; Buffs (-1.5) got 64-63 win in first meeting, then lost 71-57 (+6.5) in Tucson Feb 9. Colorado playing for 4th day in row; they played four starters 31+ minutes Friday, with bench playing only 36 minutes.
Big X final (Kansas City)
Missouri has only seven scholarship players; shooting guard English got thigh bruise late in game Friday, but did return for while. Tigers are 4-0 in Sprint Center this season, covering all four games- higher seeded team is 9-0 in Big X finals last nine years- Mizzou beat Baylor 73-60 in final three years ago- they beat Bears twice this season, 89-88 (+5) in Waco Jan 21, then 72-57 (-6.5) at home Feb 11. Baylor played five guys 30+ minutes Friday, getting 14 offensive boards in upset win over Kansas.
MAC Tournament (Cleveland)
Ohio-Akron split pair of OT decisions in last two MAC finals; Zips are in 6th straight MAC final (2-3). Ohio is playing third day in row, Akron just second; lower-seeded team won four of last five MAC finals. Home side won both series games this year; Zips (-3) won first meeting 68-63, Ohio (-5) won rematch 85-61 Feb 26. Akron won 11 of last 13 games, is 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as underdog. Ohio played four starters 31+ minutes Friday, holding on for dear life after leading by 11 at half.
Mountain West Tournament (Las Vegas)
San Diego State is 10-1 in this event last 11 years, winning it last couple years; road team won both its games with New Mexico this year. Aztecs (+10.5) won 75-70 in The Pit Jan 18, then lost 77-67 (+1) at home Feb 15. New Mexico won last four games; they fell behind 12-0 in first 2:00 to host UNLV last night, but stayed course and won, getting to finals for first time since winning title in '05. Lobos played eight guys 13+ minutes Friday, with star Gordon only guy to play more than 31:00.
Big East Tournament (NYC)
Cincinnati is in first Big East final; they beat Louisville 60-56 (-1.5) Feb 23 at home, in brickfest where Cardinals were 1-14 from arc, Cincy 8-31 inside arc. Cardinals played four starters 33+ minutes Friday, but game wasn't fast paced; this is their third Big East final in last four years (1-1). Louisville is playing fourth day in row, Cincy just third, but Bearcats had double OT win Thursday- they played four starters 37+ minutes in last night's game, with two subs playing 16-3 minutes.
Big West Tournament (Anaheim)
UCSB beat Long Beach State in last two Big West finals, but lost twice to 49ers this season, 71-48 (+2) at home Jan 21, then 70-58 in Pyramid (+8) Feb 22, but Niners' 2nd-leading scorer Anderson has sprained knee, hasn't played in tournament- he had 19 in win at UCSB. Long Beach has five seniors in its 8-man rotation; this is their last shot to get to NCAAs after winning league by four games LY, but losing in final. Gauchos only played two guys more than 28 minutes last night.
WAC Tournament (Las Vegas)
New Mexico State ran out to 21-2 lead over Hawai'i last night, had lead cut to 61-60 with 10:35 left before pulling away late; Aggies used four starters for 36+ minutes, playing only two subs- they swept Louisiana Tech this year, winning 83-73 (-5.5) in Ruston Jan 7, then 83-72 (-12.5) at home Feb 4. Tech won five of last six games, covering all six, winning SU as underdog last two nights- they played four starters 32+ minutes Friday, but did use four subs. Winner-take-all for NCAA bid.
Armadillosports.com
Saturday's Top College Basketball Trends
N CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days rest (vs NC State)
WISCONSIN is 16-3 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog (vs Michigan St)
KENTUCKY is 4-13 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread (vs Florida)
Championship Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
This Saturday, Championship Week in men's college basketball marches-on toward Selection Sunday and the start of the real madness with a number of conference tournament finals including championship games in the Big East, Big 12, and PAC-12.
The following is a brief look at a few of Saturday's top championship matchups along with a few key statistics to help handicap the games.
Big East Championship - Louisville Cardinals (25-9) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (24-9)
Louisville lost four of its last six regular season games straight-up and went 0-5 against the spread in its last five, but suddenly found new life in this tournament. Coming in as the No. 7 seed, the Cardinals knocked-off Seton Hall 61-55 as four point favorites before cruising to an impressive 84-71 victory over second-seed Marquette as 3 ½-point underdogs. Louisville landed in this title game with a 64-50 romp over No. 3-seed Notre Dame as a 3 ½-point favorite. It is now 17-13-1 ATS overall and the total has stayed 'under' in six of its last seven games
Cincinnati entered the Big East Tournament as the fourth seed with a 12-6 SU record in conference play. It squeaked-by No. 5 seed Georgetown 72-70 as a 3 ½-point underdog in the quarterfinals and shocked No.1-seed Syracuse 71-68 in the semifinals as an eight-point underdog. The Bearcats are now 7-1 both SU and ATS in their last eight games and 15-12 ATS overall. The total has stayed 'under' in six of their last seven games.
Cincinnati has beaten Louisville in five of the last eight meetings SU and is 6-2 ATS. This season, the Bearcats came away with a 60-56 victory over the Cardinals as two-point home favorites. The total has stayed 'under' in six of the last seven meetings.
Big 12 Championship - Baylor Bears (27-6) vs. Missouri Tigers (29-4)
Baylor stumbled into this tournament with a 4-4 SU (3-5 ATS) record in its last eight regular season games including a an 80-72 setback to Iowa State in the finale but quickly righted the ship in the postseason with an 82-74 victory over fifth-seed Kansas State in the quarterfinals as a two-point favorite. The No. 4 Bears then went on to shock top-ranked Kansas 81-72 in the semifinals as 6 ½-point underdogs. They are now 12-14 ATS overall and the total has gone 'over' in their last three games.
Missouri went 11-2 SU (6-5-2 ATS) in its last 13 regular season games to earn the No. 2 seed for this tournament. The Tigers wasted little time advancing to the semifinals with an 88-70 romp over seven-seed Oklahoma State as 11 ½-point favorites and once there, pounded six-seed Texas 81-67 as six-point favorites to earn a place in this title game. They are now 17-9-2 ATS on the year and the total has gone 'over' in 17 of those 28 games.
Missouri is 5-1 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the Bears including an 89-88 victory on Jan.21 as a 4 ½-point road underdog and a 72-57 beatdown on Feb.11 as a six-point home favorite. The total has stayed 'under' in four of the last five meetings.
PAC-12 Championship - Colorado Buffalos (22-11) vs. Arizona Wildcats (23-10)
Colorado knew it probably had to win this tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament after finishing sixth in the PAC-12 standings. It got to work right away with a 53-41 win over No. 11 seed Utah as a 13-point favorite in the first round. From there it upset No. 3 seed Oregon 63-62 as a 3 ½-point underdog. The Buffaloes pulled-off another upset as six-point underdogs with a 70-59 victory over No.2-seed California in the semifinals. Colorado is 15-14 ATS overall but just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games. The total has stayed 'under' in eight of its last 10 games.
Arizona's 12-6 SU record in the PAC-12 was good enough to earn the fourth seed for this tournament. It knocked-off No. 5 UCLA 66-58 as a three-point underdog in the quarterfinals and then beat No. 9 Oregon State 72-61 in the semifinals as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Wildcats are 18-14 ATS this season and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games.
They lost to Colorado 64-63 on Jan.21 as two-point road underdogs, but evened the score with a 71-57 romp over the Buffaloes as 6 ½-point home favorites on Feb.9. The total stayed 'under' in both of these games.
Conference-USA Championship - Marshall Thundering Herd (21-12) vs. Memphis Tigers (25-8)
# No. 6 seed Marshall is 13-13-1 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four games. The total has gone 'over' in seven of its last nine games.
# No. 1 seed Memphis is 16-12-2 ATS on the year and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games. The total has gone 'over' in three of its last five games.
# Head-to-head, the Tigers are 9-1 SU in the last 10 games and 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The total has gone 'over' in four of the last five meetings.
Mid-American Conference Championship - Ohio Bobcats (26-7) vs. Akron Zips (22-10)
# No. 3 seed Ohio is 13-12 ATS this season and 0-3 ATS in its last three games. The total has gone 'over' in three of its last five games.
# No. 1 seed Akron is 18-10 ATS overall and 5-3 ATS in its last eight games. The total has gone 'over' in four of its last five games.
# Head-to-head, the Bobcats have won four of the last five meetings SU and are 5-1 ATS in the last six games. The total has gone 'over' in four of the last six meetings.
Bubble Update
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Friday was a big movement day on the bubble, with the situation becoming downright crowded with losses by Southern Mississippi, California, Miami,Fl., and Nevada further muddying the waters.
Meanwhile, on the top lines, the loss by Kansas in the Big XII semis vs. Baylor likely removes the Jayhawks from a number one regional seed.
For the moment we project Ohio State, as long as it wins the Big Ten Tournament, as the team to take KU's place on the top line, although Michigan State could also still move into that mix. We think the best the winner of the Missouri-Baylor Big XI title game can do is a second seed.
After Friday's games, here's how our projected seeds (1 thru 16) for the Big Dance set up as of AM, Saturday, March 10...
No. 1 seeds...Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, North Carolina.
No. 2 seeds...Duke, Baylor, Kansas, Michigan State.
No. 3 seeds...Marquette, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri.
No. 4 seeds...Indiana, Florida State, Georgetown, Louisville.
No. 5 seeds...Wichita State, Creighton, Memphis, Florida.
No. 6 seeds...Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Temple, San Diego State.
No. 7 seeds...Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, New Mexico, Murray State.
No. 8 seeds...Saint Louis, Vanderbilt, UNLV, Purdue.
No. 9 seeds...Iowa State, Kansas State, UConn, Virginia.
No. 10 seeds...Alabama, BYU, Long Beach State, NC State.
No. 11 seeds...Arizona, Virginia Commonwealth, Colorado State, West Virginia.
No. 12 seeds...Miami-Fla., Xavier, Texas, South Florida, Drexel.
No. 13 seeds...Akron, New Mexico State, Harvard, Southern Miss, Iona.
No. 14 seeds...Loyola-Md., Davidson, Detroit, Belmont.
No. 15 seeds...Lehigh, UNC-Asheville, South Dakota State, Montana.
No. 16 seeds...Long Island, Lamar, Norfolk State, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky.
Last four in...South Florida, Drexel, Southern Miss, Iona.
First four out...Washington, Seton Hall, California, Mississippi State.
Next four out...Northwestern, Nevada, Marshall, Ole Miss.