NCAA Previews & Picks: Saturday's East Region Action
By Covers.com
No. 8 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 1 Syracuse Orange (-5, 134.5)
THE STORY: Top-seeded Syracuse survived a big scare in its opening-round game against No. 16 UNC-Asheville in a 72-65 victory. If not for a few controversial calls late, it’s possible the Orange wouldn’t have advanced to play No. 8 seed Kansas State in the Round of 32 in Pittsburgh as part of the East Region. Syracuse became the first No. 1 seed since 2002 to trail at halftime against a 16-seed and benefited from a blown out-of-bounds call in the final minute that officials later admitted they got wrong. The Wildcats, meanwhile, erased a five-point second-half deficit to defeat Southern Mississippi 70-64. This will mark the first meeting since 1975.
Pick: Kansas State
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5, 136.5)
THE STORY: The fact No. 2 seed Ohio State easily advanced to the round of 32 came as little surprise, but the complete domination No. 7 seed Gonzaga showed over a quality opponent from the Big East proved the Bulldogs have more than enough to end the Buckeyes’ season early. Ohio State overcame an inefficient offensive effort to win its first tournament game for the third straight season. The Bulldogs hit on all cylinders against West Virginia en route to their fourth appearance in the round of 32 in as many years.
Pick: Gonzaga
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers (Pick, 120)
THE STORY: No. 4 seed Wisconsin did exactly what was expected of it in the round of 64 -- dominating on the defensive end and making enough big shots to turn the game against Montana into a rout. No. 5 seed Vanderbilt will provide a contrast in style to the Badgers, with a strong offense featuring an inside-outside attack. The red-hot Commodores knocked off pesky Harvard on Thursday.
Pick: Vanderbilt
NCAA Previews & Picks: Saturday's South Region Action
By Covers.com
No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 8 Iowa State Cyclones (+10.5, 140)
THE STORY: Kentucky hadn’t lost a game in three months until Sunday’s SEC championship game, but the Wildcats rebounded in fine fashion in an 81-66 victory of Western Kentucky in their NCAA tournament opener Thursday. Now, the Wildcats face the Cyclones in the Round of 32, with a Sweet 16 berth at stake. The Wildcats displayed the dominant form on both ends of the floor they showed throughout most of the regular season against the Hilltoppers, leading by as many as 32 points in the second half. Making their first NCAA appearance since 2005, the Cyclones nearly let a 22-point first-half advantage evaporate before holding off defending national champion Connecticut 77-64 in their NCAA opener.
Pick: Kentucky
No. 12 VCU Rams vs. No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers (-5.5, 138.5)
THE STORY: For a basketball program with such a rich history, Indiana is trying to get back to a place it hasn’t been in a long time. The fourth-seeded Hoosiers, who defeated No. 13 New Mexico State, 79-62 in Thursday’s first round, haven’t played in the second weekend of the tournament since the 2001-2002 team finished as national runner-up. Thanks to the quartet of Jordan Hulls, Cody Zeller, Christian Watford and Will Sheehey (combined for 64 points against the Aggies), Indiana has its best shot in a decade to reach the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, VCU keeps proving the doubters wrong in March. The Rams, who reached the final four as an 11-seed a year ago, were given a No. 12 seed this season, but led by as many 13 before holding on to beat fifth-seeded Wichita State, 62-59 in their opener Thursday.
Pick: VCU
No. 11 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-7.5, 133)
THE STORY: After nearly blowing a 20-point second half lead, Colorado escaped with a Round of 64 victory over UNLV to advance to the NCAA tournament’s third round for the first time since 1997. Now the 11th-seeded Buffaloes will meet a familiar opponent, No. 3 seed Baylor, who they played yearly from 1996 through 2011 in the Big 12 Conference before moving to the Pac-12. The Bears won the most recent meeting in 2011, a 70-66 victory. Colorado, however, holds a 15-9 advantage in the all-time series, including a 4-1 mark in neutral-site games.
Pick: Baylor
NCAA Previews & Picks: Saturday's West Region Action
By Covers.com
No. 6 Murray State Racers vs. No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (-5, 142)
THE STORY: A trip to the Sweet 16 will be on the line when third-seeded Marquette takes on upstart Murray State. Both teams used dominating performances in second round victories; Marquette racing to a 19-point first half lead and pounding BYU 88-68 while No. 6 seed Murray State rallied from a halftime deficit to disrupt and dismantle Colorado State in the second half en route to a 58-41 win. Marquette looks for its second straight Sweet 16 appearance and 15th overall, and Murray State seeks the program's first-ever trip to the regional semifinals.
Pick: Marquette
No. 5 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (-1, 128)
THE STORY: New Mexico has never won back-to-back games in the NCAA tournament and Louisville is attempting to reach the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in eight seasons. The fifth-seeded Lobos held off 12th-seeded Long Beach State in their opening game for their sixth consecutive victory. The fourth-seeded Cardinals have posted five straight wins after beating 13th-seeded Davidson. The victory was Louisville’s first in the NCAA tournament since 2009, after the Cardinals lost their initial game the previous two seasons.
Pick: New Mexico
Saturday Third Round Games
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The field has been cut down to 32 teams after Thursday and Friday's action. Sixteen squads have the right to play in next week's Sweet Sixteen, including a pair of top seeds in Kentucky and Syracuse taking the court on Saturday. We'll start in Pittsburgh with the Orange trying to put a second round scare behind them against upstart Kansas State.
[8] Kansas State vs. [1] Syracuse (-5, 134½)
Both these teams needed to play all 40 minutes in their opening games on Thursday to advance to the round of 32. The Orange staved off 16th seed UNC-Asheville, 72-65, as Syracuse failed to cover as 15½-point favorites. Syracuse continues to play without center Fab Melo, who is sidelined with eligibility issues. The Wildcats trailed Southern Miss in the second half, but K-State rallied for a 70-64 triumph, while cashing barely as 5½-point 'chalk.'
Syracuse has lost only two games all season, but Jim Boeheim's squad owns a dreadful 1-7 ATS mark the previous eight contests. Five of those non-covers came as favorites of seven points or more, as the Orange failed to cash in two victories as 'chalk' of less than five points against Louisville and UConn. Kansas State is just 6-5 ATS as an underdog this season, but the Wildcats picked up three outright 'dog wins against Missouri twice and Baylor.
[7] Gonzaga vs. [2] Ohio State (-7½, 136½)
The Buckeyes look for a return to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season if OSU can get by Gonzaga. The Bulldogs picked up an impressive victory over West Virginia, 77-54 as short favorites, despite traveling cross-country for the second time in three seasons in their opening tournament game. Mark Few's club is 9-2 the last 11 contests, as the two losses came in overtime to St. Mary's and by one point at San Francisco.
Ohio State knocked off Loyola (MD), 78-59 as 17½-point favorites, while limiting the Greyhounds to 35% shooting from the floor. Out of their seven losses this season, only one defeat for the Buckeyes came against a non-tournament team (Illinois). Thad Matta's team is 3-5 ATS the last eight games as a single-digit favorite, while going 4-4 SU. The 'Zags were one of the top 'under' squads in the country, as Gonzaga is riding an 8-1 'under' run the last nine games.
[6] Murray State vs. [3] Marquette (-5, 142)
This matchup showcases plenty of intrigue with a top Big East squad battling an Ohio Valley team that lost just one game this season. Murray State overcame a slow start in routing Colorado State, 58-41 as five-point favorites to win their first tournament game since upsetting Vanderbilt in 2010. The Racers take on a Marquette club that cruised past BYU, 88-68 as five point 'chalk.'
The Golden Eagles have won 14 of 17 games since a two-game skid in early January, while cashing in 14 of the last 19 contests overall. Buzz Williams' group is 7-3 ATS the previous 10 games when laying points, as Marquette has sailed 'over' the total eight times in the last 10 contests. Murray State is red-hot from the covering perspective, going 7-1 ATS the last eight games, while the Racers are 2-0 SU/ATS in the underdog role.
[8] Iowa State vs. [1] Kentucky (-11½, 140)
The Wildcats began their run at the Final Four by dumping Western Kentucky, 81-66, but Kentucky failed to cover as hefty 26½-point favorites. John Calipari's team will no doubt be tested on Saturday as UK takes on Iowa State, as the Cyclones eliminated defending champion UConn, 77-64 as short underdogs. ISU has been overshadowed all season in the Big 12 by Kansas, Missouri, and Baylor, but the Cyclones can make a huge name for themselves and the conference with an upset over Kentucky.
Fred Hoiberg's squad is in the midst of a 12-2-1 ATS run, while cashing as double-digit underdogs at Kansas and Missouri. The Cyclones compiled a 9-4-1 ATS record as a 'dog, even though ISU's best non-conference win came on Thursday over UConn. Kentucky hasn't helped backers this season with a 14-game stretch of non-covers from November through mid-January, while riding a 2-7 ATS stretch the last nine contests. The Wildcats have compiled a 6-4 ATS record in the tournament under Calipari, but two of those non-covers came as large favorites in the opening round.
Late-Night Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
These games will be played at The Pit from Albuquerque, New Mexico
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (4) Wisconsin
The SEC and Big 10 will matchup here in what’s expected to be a tight low-scoring affair between Vanderbilt (25-10 SU, 18-13 ATS) and Wisconsin (25-9 SU, 17-14 ATS). Both schools looked sharp in the tournament openers as the Commodores dropped Harvard 79-70 and the Badgers stifled Montana 73-49 in wire-to-wire fashion.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Bruce Marshall believes Wisconsin rugged defense could have trouble stopping Vanderbilt’s offense. He explained, “Head coach Bo Ryan, might have to consult with Badger football coach Bret Bielema to come up with something different to impede arguably the best coordinated attack he has faced this season, not to mention a foe that is hardly about to blink at any Wisconsin wrestling tactics after staring down the likes of Kentucky, Marquette, and several others during the Commodores' ultra-challenging 2011-12 slate. Scoring remains another obvious key to victory, and we simply prefer the Vandy offensive options, led by the dynamic duo of John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor.”
Wisconsin boats a talented player named Taylor too, point guard Jordan but Marshall also believes he could be in for a rough performance.
“Taylor has been effectively schemed out of the offensive flow by several Wisconsin opponents this season, and the Dores' defensive perimeter is not likely to abandon its responsibilities defending the arc with big man Festus Ezeli as an effective safety net behind them.”
Make a note that Vanderbilt is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on neutral courts this season. The Badgers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) aren’t too shabby either.
Total players are staring down a number hovering between 121 and 122. Even though the Badgers love to slow it down, they’re on an 8-2 run to the ‘over’ and both teams have gunners that can fill it up from the outside.
The Commodore or Badgers will meet the winner of Syracuse and Kansas State from Boston next weekend.
(11) Colorado vs. (3) Baylor
Gamblers have to be scratching their heads on this line. Baylor (28-7 SU, 13-15 ATS) just beat South Dakota State 68-60 in its tournament opener and they barely covered the 7 ½-point number, thanks to four free throws at the end of the game. The line against the Jackrabbits was apparently spot-on by the oddsmakers but now the Bears are giving the same spread to what I believe is an underrated Colorado (24-11 SU, 17-14 ATS) squad. The question is how do you fade the Buffaloes here? They’ve won and covered five straight, four instances as underdogs too. The team is winning with defense, allowing an average of 55.4 points per game over this span, and clutch shots.
In case you forgot, Colorado was a Big 12 school in 2011 and these teams do have a history. The last four meetings were split, but the Buffaloes captured three covers. In the final encounter, Baylor notched a 70-66 victory in 2011 from Waco.
Some experts, including Bruce Marshall, believe Baylor’s size and Colorado’s inability to execute could be the difference here. “Bears coach Scott Drew will have noticed that Colorado wilted under the Runnin' Rebels' full-court pressure in the final 10 minutes on Thursday night, when the Buffs committed the majority of their whopping 23 TOs and nearly coughed up a 20-point lead. Moreover, CU's propensity for hitting extended dry patches on the attack end (which have been recurring throughout the season) allowed UNLV to get a real look at a game that it had no business doing so. Only guard Carlon Brown is capable of creating his own shots for the Buffs, whose physicality also doesn't figure to play as well vs. Baylor's NBA-sized frontline.”
Even though most of the totals in this year’s college basketball season have been spiked up immediately, some believe blindly by betting syndicates, this number (133.5) has held steady. Colorado (20-11) has been an ‘under’ team all season and its last five have gone ‘under.’
Considering this year’s tournament has had its fill of upsets already, it’s probably not smart to look ahead. However, the winner of this game will meet the winner of No. 10 Xavier and No. 15 Lehigh in next week’s Sweet 16 showdown.
These games will be played at the Rose Garden from Portland, Oregon
(12) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (4) Indiana
After watching Virginia Commonwealth (29-6 SU, 19-14 ATS) knock off Wichita State 65-62 on Thursday as a 7 ½-point underdog, it might be hard to fade this school. However, when you see Indiana (26-8 SU, 18-10 ATS) opened as a six-point favorite over VCU, it tells you something about both schools. First, VCU is a well-coached team but it’s also been fortunate. The Shockers, a very good offensive team, shot 38 percent from the field and the officials also called the game tight. Shaka Smart has a good defensive team and they make clutch shots but what happens when they don’t catch the breaks.
Indiana had a very impressive 79-66 victory against New Mexico State on Thursday as the team shot 59 percent from the field. The Hoosiers dominated from start to finish and frustrated the Aggies on both ends of the court. Jordan Hulls led all scorers with 22 points, 12 coming from 3-point land.
VCU has been great as an underdog this season, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Hoosiers have been steady (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) outside of Bloomington, still a step below the Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS).
The total opened at 137½ and spiked up to 138½ points. VCU likes to press of makes and Indiana isn’t your typical Big 10 squad. The Hoosiers like to run and they have the bigs, especially Cody Zeller to fill the lanes. Both squads saw the ‘under’ cash in their openers.
Whoever comes out of this contest will could be looking at Kentucky in the Sweet 16, if the Wildcats get past a scrappy Iowa State squad on Saturday.
(5) New Mexico vs. (4) Louisville
The last game on the board for Saturday is arguably the best matchup and the oddsmakers tend to agree. Louisville (27-9 SU, 19-13 ATS) opened as a one-point favorite over New Mexico (28-6 SU, 23-8 ATS) and the number has held steady or moved up a half at a handful of shops. Since losing its regular season finale to Syracuse (49-58), Rick Pitino and the Cardinals have ripped off five consecutive wins and covers. On Thursday, Louisville held off Davidson 69-62 as a 5½-point favorite. The Cards were in control for most of the game and earned a quality win despite having to deal with a long road trip and an early tip-off (10:40 a.m. ET).
New Mexico didn’t have any issues on Thursday either as it stopped Long Beach State 75-68 as a four-point favorite in what was a close game. The win for the Lobos was their sixth in a row and more importantly it was their sixth straight cover. Gamblers riding this team have seen them post a 23-7 ATS mark this season, which is the best nationally.
VI expert Joe Nelson feels strength of schedule could be the difference here. “New Mexico didn’t play much of non-conference schedule with a win over St. Louis as the only standout effort and while statistically the Lobos have great efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball, Louisville had to go through a far tougher schedule this season. For the season both teams have outstanding defensive numbers but Louisville did it against better competition and the Cardinals have been far better so far in neutral site games. Over the last five games against quality teams Louisville is holding foes to just 56 points per game on less than 38 percent shooting. Opponents have hit 17 percent from 3-point range in that span against Louisville,” said Nelson.
Louisville has only played five games on a neutral court and its gone 5-0 both SU and ATS, plus the ‘under’ has cashed in four of the contests. Meanwhile, the Lobos are 6-1 both SU and ATS in these situations, the lone loss coming by three points in overtime.
NCAAB Preview
Syracuse's title hopes took big blow when Fab Melo was declared out on Tuesday; Orange were terribly flat in squeaking by NC-Asheville in first round, trailing by 4 at half, making just 5-23 behind arc. Over last seven years, #1 seeds are 16-11-1 vs spread in this round (26-2 SU), but this is also the least points a #1 seed has laid in a 2nd-round game since 2000, when Wisconsin upset #1-seed Arizona out west. Since 2005, Big East second round favorites are 10-14-1 against the spread. Kansas State has the #9 offensive rebounding team in country; Syracuse is #341 on other end of the court (5th-worst) and that was with Melo in lineup. Over last four years, 2nd-round favorites of 5 or less points are 19-11 vs spread.
#2 seeds are 7-11 vs spread in this round when facing a #7, with six SU losses. Young Gonzaga won nine of its last eleven games, with two losses by total of five points; their tough pre-conference schedule helps them play well here. Over last three years, second round favorites of more than 5 points are 14-9-1 vs spread. Gonzaga shot 56% from floor, made 9-17 from arc in 77-54 rout of West Virginia; they were up 18 at half- they're 2-5 in this round since '03, losing by 1-19-2-22-22 points. Ohio State is 7-4 in its last 11 games; they outrebounded Loyola 45-23 in easy 78-59 first round win. Gonzaga's first two losses this year were pair of 7-point losses to Big Dozen teams (Illinois/Michigan State).
Murray State is 3-0 as a dog this season; this is first time they're getting points since winning 76-72 at Memphis (+10) Dec 11. Racers will have home crowd behind them, but Marquette is big step up from Colorado State. Golden Eagles are just as athletic as Murray and they defend well, forcing turnovers on 23.7% of possessions (#22 in country.Marquette got to Sweet 16 LY for first time under Williams; no OVC team has been to Sweet 16 in last decade- they've lost second round games by 2-17 in last two tournaments. Murray advanced Thursday despite shooting just 13-26 at foul line, 5-17 from arc. OVC underdogs of 5+ points are 19-22 against the spread this season.
Iowa State makes 38% behind arc, which you have to have against the Kentucky shot blockers; Cyclones are 7-2-1 v spread in last ten games as an underdog, playing in Big X. Interesting to see ISU's White inside against Wildcat defense that blocks 21.2% of opponents' shots. Iowa St. was +17 on boards in first round win over UConn, game they led 34-14; Cyclones have several transfers who've been around- that gives them a toughness lot of teams don't have- they split with both Kansas/Baylor, so they're not going to be awed here. Kentucky won its last two second round games, by 30-8 points. #1 seeds laying double digits in a second round game covered six of their last ten tries.
Wisconsin has been favored in seven of last eight second round games, but is 4-4; #4 seeds are 6-17 vs spread in last 23 second round games vs #5 seeds, with 5's 10-4 in last 14 games when pointspread was 3 or less points. Vandy got monkey off back from previous first round upsets by beating pretty good Harvard team Thursday, shooting 54% from floor. Badgers play 2nd-slowest pace in country, but veteran Vandy team (five seniors in rotation) can play at any pace. Wisconsin made 10-19 from arc in easy win over Montana, but Commodores hold foes to 30.2% on the arc. SEC teams are 4-0 in second round games the last two years.
Baylor-Colorado were Big 12 rivals until Buffs bolted to Pac-12 before this season; home team won seven of last eight meetings, with Colorado winning both Big 12 tourney tilts, but most of that was before Baylor became a top 25 team- they beat Buffs 70-66 in last meeting LY. Buffs aren't nearly as talented as Baylor, but they're well-coached and on roll, winning four games in Pac-12 tourney last week, then beating UNLV in first round when they got up 20, then held on for dear life, winning by 4. #3 seeds are 6-3 vs spread in last nine second round games vs #11 seeds. Colorado turned ball over 23 times against UNLV's pressure Thursday; Baylor forces turnovers on 21.4% of possessions.
Louisville is on roll after winning Big East tourney last week; last two teams that won Big East tourney got to Final Four. Cardinals allowed an average of 52 ppg in last three games- they held Davidson to 35% in win Thursday. That said, New Mexico has won six games in row and 13 of last 15- they have NBA player in Gordon, plus poised freshman PG in Greenwood to handle Louisville pressure. Lobos make 38% from arc. #4 seeds are just 6-17 vs spread in last 23 second round games against #5 seeds. Mountain West teams are 11-8 vs spread on road when spread in less than 5 points. Big East teams are 15-17. Lobo have never gotten to Sweet 16, so this coudl be biggest win in program history.
VCU will pressure Indiana team whose point guard is out with injured knee; Rams won five of last six NCAA tourney games, and were dog in all six- they're 4-1-1 vs spread as an underdog this season, they're 18-1 SU in last 19 games, losing at George Mason by point on buzzer beater. CAA road underdogs of 7 or less points are 6-17 vs spread this season. Indiana shot 59% in easy win over New Mexico State, but Aggies shot 55%; if Rams can score, that allows them more chances to press, which is their best chance to score. Big Dozen away favorites of 7 points or less are 12-5 against the spread this season.
Other Tournaments
Seton Hall is 2-0 vs Atlantic 14 teams this season, beating St Joe's by 8, Dayton by 5. Pirates are 14-3 this season vs teams not in the top 80 in country. UMass won four of its last five games winning at Miss State in double OT Tuesday, which ended Rick Stansbury's tenure at MSU.
Oakland won six of last eight games; they lost by hoop to Ohio, won by 17 over Bowling Green in games vs MAC opponent. Buffalo won four of its last five games, losing only to Ohio U by 3; they hold opponents to 43% inside arc, 15th in country.
Toledo won eight of its last ten games, winning last six games at home. Robert Morris forces turnovers on 24% of possessions; they beat Ohio in only game vs MAC opponent- they won nine of last 11 games.
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