NCAA Previews & Picks: Syracuse vs. Ohio State
By Covers.com
No. 1 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-3, 136)
THE STORY: Top-seeded Syracuse defeated No. 4 seed Wisconsin 64-63 Thursday and earned its first NCAA tournament victory against a Big Ten opponent in seven tries. Now, the Orange will play another Big Ten foe, No. 2 seed Ohio State, with a trip to the Final Four at stake. The Buckeyes, who advanced to the regional final with an 81-66 victory over No. 6 Cincinnati, have made just one Final Four in Thad Matta’s eight seasons, back in 2007. That year, they lost to Florida in the national championship game. Syracuse, meanwhile, hasn’t made the Final Four since 2003 - the year Carmelo Anthony led them to an improbable title. The last NCAA tournament meeting came in 1983, a 79-74 Ohio State victory.
SYRACUSE (34-2): Jim Boeheim’s vaunted 2-3 zone struggled against the Badgers, who converted 14 of 27 3-point attempts - including six straight late in the second half. Ohio State figures to be a more difficult defensive assignment, as the Buckeyes have capable inside scorers and a handful of players who can knock down outside shots. Syracuse, which is without sophomore center Fab Melo after the NCAA declared him ineligible last week, will have its depth tested, particularly on the front line. Forwards Rakeem Christmas and James Southerland will be asked to play productive minutes and the Orange could use a big effort from C.J. Fair, who played 37 minutes and scored 15 points against the Badgers.
OHIO STATE (30-7): Against Cincinnati, the Buckeyes turned in a performance that has become very familiar over the last several months, ever since they dropped their first game against Kansas in early December. Ohio State started strong, taking a 37-25 halftime lead, and then fell asleep as the Bearcats surged into a four-point lead midway through the second half. Eventually, the Buckeyes’ overwhelming talent won out, but they can’t afford to play prolonged inconsistent stretches against the Orange - one of the more complete teams in the field. Jared Sullinger has 53 points and 26 rebounds in three tournament games for the Buckeyes, who have won each game by seven or more and by a combined 41 points.
TRENDS:
* Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Big East.
* Orange are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 11-3 in Buckeyes' last 14 vs. Big East.
* Over is 5-2 in Orange's last seven non-conference games.
TIP-INS:
1. Syracuse is 5-0 against top 25 opponents, while the Buckeyes are just 7-6 against ranked teams.
2. Ohio State won the most recent meeting 79-65 on a neutral court in 2007.
3. If the Orange win, it will mark the fourth straight year that a Big East team advanced to the Final Four.
Pick: Ohio State
NCAA Previews & Picks: Florida vs. Louisville
By Covers.com
No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (+1.5, 131)
THE STORY: Both Louisville and Florida pulled off minor upsets in the West Region semifinals on Thursday night, and now the two tournament-savvy schools will meet with a Final Four berth on the line. The fourth-seeded Cardinals are in the Elite Eight for the fourth time under coach Rick Pitino, while the seventh-seeded Gators are looking for their fourth Final Four appearance since 2000 under coach Billy Donovan. Donovan played for Pitino at Providence and coached under him at Kentucky, but he’s 0-6 all-time against his mentor.
FLORIDA (26-10): This is the team everyone expected to see all season. The Gators’ three tournament victories have come by a combined 70 points, most recently a 68-58 upset of No. 3 seed Marquette. Florida led the nation with nearly 10 3-pointers made per game during the regular season, but the Gators are just 21-of-78 (26.9 percent) from deep in the three wins. They can thank a defense that’s surrendering only 51 points per game for the success, but the shooting will have to improve if they hope to knock off Louisville — a very strong defensive team.
LOUISVILLE (29-9): Speaking of good defense, the Cardinals are putting on quite the show on that end of the court. Led by Gorgui Dieng’s seven blocks, Louisville held top-seeded Michigan State to 28 percent shooting in a 57-44 upset that left the West Region up for grabs. Louisville’s matchup zone and high-pressure defense is giving opponents’ fits, which Florida will have to counter with some accurate long-range shooting. Opponents are just 14-of-63 (22.2 percent) on 3-pointers against the Cardinals in three tournament games.
TRENDS:
* Gators are 14-3 in their past 17 games as a favorite in the NCAA tournament.
* Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their past 7 neutral site games.
* Under is 10-1 in the Cardinals' past 11 games.
* Over is 15-4 in the Gators' past 19 non-conference games.
TIP-INS:
1. Donovan and Pitino have never faced each other in the NCAA tournament.
2. Pitino is now 10-0 all-time in the Sweet 16, but he’s 5-4 in the Elite Eight.
3. Florida is 32-12 all-time in the NCAA tournament, including a 28-9 mark under Donovan.
Pick: Florida
NCAAB Preview
Donovan is 18-2 in last 20 NCAA games, but 0-6 as head coach against his mentor, Pitino; no #7 seed has ever made Final Four- they're 0-6 in regional finals, with West Virginia in '05 last #7 seed to get this far- they lost 93-85, to Louisville. Since 1998, in regional finals without either a #1/#2 seed, underdogs are 8-2 against the spread. Louisville held its first three opponents in this tournament to 35-39-29% from floor, 14-63 on arc; Cardinals won last seven games, holding last four opponents to 51.2 ppg. Florida has three double digit wins in tournament- they lost four of last five games coming into the NCAAs.
Syracuse is an underdog for first time this season; they're first #1 seed to be underdog in regional final since St Joe's in '04 (lost 64-62, +3.5). Since 2004, #1 seeds are 9-10 SU in regional finals, but just 3-6 when facing a #2 seed; over the last nine years, underdogs are 25-11 against spread in regional finals. Since '87, #1 seeds are 1-5 SU in regional finals when an underdog, 2-4 vs spread. Ohio State won seven of last eight games, with wins over Gonzaga/Cincinnati in last two; Sullinger will exploit Syracuse 2-3 defense that is lacking without Melo. Since 2007, Big East teams are 5-3 in regional finals; Big Dozen teams are 5-1 since '05.
Armadillosports.com
OHIO ST (30 - 7) vs. SYRACUSE (34 - 2) - 3/24/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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FLORIDA (26 - 10) vs. LOUISVILLE (29 - 9) - 3/24/2012, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MERCER (25 - 11) at FAIRFIELD (22 - 14) - 3/24/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MERCER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MERCER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OHIO ST vs. SYRACUSE
OHIO ST: 11-3 ATS playing w/ one or less days rest
SYRACUSE: 0-6 ATS on neutral court if total is 135 to 139.5
FLORIDA vs. LOUISVILLE
FLORIDA: 1-5 ATS if dog last game
LOUISVILLE: 7-0 ATS on neutral court
Ohio St. vs. Syracuse
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The only region in which form has held and will feature a No. 1 and No. 2 seed in the finals is the East, which will culminate with Saturday’s showdown between Syracuse and Ohio St. at TD Garden in Boston.
As of early this afternoon, most books had Ohio St. (30-7 straight up, 19-13 against the spread) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 136. Gamblers can back the top-seeded Orange to win outright for a plus-135 return (risk $100 to win $135).
Syracuse (34-2 SU, 18-17 ATS) has survived a pair of major tests to get to the region finals. The most recent one came Thursday night from a game Wisconsin squad, but the Orange prevailed 64-63 thanks to a crucial defensive stop on the Badgers’ last possession.
Syracuse’s extended zone forced Jordan Taylor to take a deep, contested 3 that was rebounded by the Badgers, but a hurried baseline turnaround jumper was nowhere close.
C.J. Fair paced the ‘Cuse with 15 points, seven rebounds and four steals. Scoop Jardine made 5-of-8 shots and finished with 14 points and four assists. Dion Waiters was also in double figures with 13 points.
Ohio St. got a huge second half out of point guard Aaron Craft in its Sweet 16 battle with Cincinnati, pulling away for an 81-66 victory as an eight-point favorite. The Buckeyes led by 12 at intermission, but the Bearcats surged into the lead with a 21-6 run to start the second half.
But Craft’s tenacious defense sparked Ohio St. to a 17-1 run that put the game away and put money in the pockets of Buckeye backers. Craft finished with 11 points, six steals, five assists and four rebounds, and his defensive effort was the main reason why Cincy committed 18 turnovers.
Deshaun Thomas scored 20 of his game-high 26 points in the first half, while Jared Sullinger produced a double-double with 23 points and 11 boards.
Thad Matta’s team has covered the spread in two of its three NCAA games and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. The non-cover in the tourney came in a 73-66 win over Gonzaga as an eight-point favorite last weekend.
Ohio St. owns a 6-9 spread record in 15 games as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Syracuse is mired in a 2-8 ATS slump, but we should point out that this is its first underdog situation of the year.
As always, the key to beating Syracuse will be attacking its zone defense with dribble penetration into the gaps. Craft is a good man to do that, although he’s a mediocre shooter from the perimeter. But that’s ok if he can create better looks for Thomas and William Buford, both of whom can stroke it from beyond the arc.
Buford, who averages 14.8 points per game, is in a shooting slump, though. He made just 1-of-8 from the field against Cincy and has been held below his scoring average in five of the Buckeyes’ last six games.
The ‘over’ is 19-11-2 overall for the Buckeyes, cashing at a lucrative 9-1 clip in their last 10 games.
The ‘under’ is 19-15-1 overall for the Orange, 4-2 in its last six outings.
Tip-off is slated for 7:15 p.m. Eastern with CBS providing the telecast.
Florida vs. Louisville
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
In the 1987 NCAA Tournament, Providence head coach Rick Pitino and star senior guard Billy Donovan led the Friars to the Final Four in New Orleans. Twenty-five years later, Donovan and Pitino will lead their respective schools up against each other in the West Region finals in Phoenix for the right to go to this year’s national semifinals in The Big Easy.
Most betting shops opened fourth-seeded Louisville (29-9 straight up, 21-13-1 against the spread) as a one-point favorite but as of Friday afternoon, most spots had the Gators listed as 1½-point favorites with a total of 131½.
U of L has won seven in a row both SU and ATS, including Thursday’s 57-44 win over top-seeded Michigan St. as a 5½-point underdog. The Cardinals hooked up money-line supporters with a plus-200 payout (risk $100 to win $200).
Chane Behanan was the catalyst for Louisville with 15 points, nine rebounds and three steals. Russ Smith came off the bench and added 11 points in just 17 minutes of playing time.
Pitino’s team played sensational defense against the Spartans, who shot an abysmal 28.6 percent from the field. The Cards also forced MSU into 15 turnovers.
During Louisville’s seven-game winning streak, it has taken out the likes of Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Marquette en route to winning the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. Then in the NCAA Tournament, the Cards bounced Davidson (69-62) and New Mexico (59-56).
Gorgui Dieng is a dominant defender in the lane, something UF hasn’t seen during its current three-game winning streak. Dieng had nine rebounds, seven blocked shots and three steals against Michigan St., altering shots and playing a pivotal role in the Spartans’ woeful shooting night.
Florida (26-10 SU, 15-15-1 ATS) was sent to the West Region and given a No. 7 seed despite spending a good chunk of the season in the Top 10 of the national rankings. However, the draw has turned into a good thing for the Gators, who blasted 10th-seeded Virginia 71-45 in their opener.
Next, UF got to face a No. 15 seed because Norfolk St. stunned second-seeded Missouri two days before. Kenny Boynton scored a team-high 20 points to lead the Gators to an 84-50 shellacking of the MEAC champs.
On Thursday at US Airways Arena, the same venue where UF lost a Sweet 16 heartbreaker in the 1999 Tournament courtesy of a last-second putback by Gonzaga’s Casey Calvary, it captured a 68-58 win over third-seeded Marquette as a one-point underdog.
Bradley Beal needed just 10 shots from the field to produce a game-high 21 points. The freshman guard/forward also had six rebounds, four assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. As I noted in my take on sleepers before the Tournament started, Beal has the type of talent to ‘pull a Carmelo’ (‘Cuse circa 2003) and lead UF to a national title.
Erving Walker and Boynton added 11 points apiece against the Golden Eagles, who were hampered by the fact that Big East Player of the Year Jae Crowder got into foul trouble early in the first half.
If you told me that Florida would make just 21-of-78 shots from 3-point land at a mediocre 27-percent clip in its first three games of the Tournament, I would’ve told you it would no longer be in the field. Nevertheless, the Gators are back in the Elite Eight for the fifth time on Donovan’s watch.
That’s because they have been outstanding defensively. In fact, UF has given up the third-fewest amount of points in Tourney history during the shot-clock era for the span of the first three games.
Florida let a double-digit second-half lead get away in last year’s Elite Eight overtime loss to Butler in New Orleans. That will surely have Walker, the senior point guard who is UF’s all-time leader in assists and the school’s second-best 3-point marksman, and the rest of his teammates extremely hungry for success Saturday afternoon.
The win over Marquette improved Donovan’s career record in the NCAA Tournament to 28-9. That’s good for the third-best mark percentage-wise (.757) among active coaches, behind only Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski and UNC’s Roy Williams.
The ‘over’ is 18-13 overall for UF, but the ‘under’ has cashed in each of its three NCAA Tournament games.
The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Louisville games and 10 of its last 11. For the season, the ‘under’ is 21-14 overall for the Cards.
In six all-time head-to-head matchups between the mentor and the protege, Pitino's teams have bested Donovan's all six times. The most recent was a 74-70 U of L win over UF at the O-Dome in Gainesville in December of 2004.
Tip-off on CBS is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern.