Louisville - Kentucky Preview
Sportspic.com
The Louisville Cardinals and the Kentucky Wildcats regularly meet during the regular season, but they haven't met in the NCAA tournament since 1984. They'll clash in this year's Final Four.
Why Louisville Will Win
When you do your homework and assess your Sports Bet on this game, you must take into account the pressures and dynamics associated with fierce rivalries. One of the things that makes college basketball in general (and the NCAA tournament in particular) so difficult to win is that the motivation levels differ so markedly from game to game. Teams that are lacking in confidence in one game can then be transformed the next game if they're lucky enough to survive. Teams can and do approach certain games in a state of fear and paralysis, only to live another day and exhibit the very fearlessness that was so absent the night before. This very much describes the journey the Louisville Cardinals have taken in this year's NCAA tournament, at least at times.
Louisville barely skated by New Mexico in the round of 32, playing a very shaky brand of basketball but doing just enough to hang on in the end. The Cardinals, having emerged from the first weekend of the tournament intact, re-gathered their strength and their energies and put together a convincing performance in the Sweet 16 round against Michigan State, smacking around the top-seeded Spartans by 13 points, 57-44. Louisville was far more comfortable playing as an underdog four seed against a number one seed than it was as a favored fourth seed against fifth-seeded New Mexico. In the West Regional final against seventh-seeded Florida, Louisville reverted to the edgy, unsettled team it was against New Mexico.
The Cardinals were blitzed in the first 30 minutes and trailed by 11 points midway through the second half. However, they rallied and managed to dig out a 72-68 win when Florida's three-point shots stopped falling. Now, Louisville gets a chance to take on its archrival, Kentucky. The Cardinals won't have pressure in this game. They know they're playing with house money. They have absolutely nothing to lose and should exhibit supreme confidence on the court in the Louisiana Superdome. One great performance, fueled by all this confidence, is very attainable for Louisville. The path to victory very much exists.
Why Kentucky Will Win
The College Basketball Betting experts who follow the sport on a regular basis do not need to offer a lengthy dissertation on why Kentucky will win. The Wildcats have a starting five comprised of NBA-level players – some of them will declare for the draft after this season, while a few will probably stick around for one more season and then turn pro. Anthony Davis is the best player in the sport, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the hardest-working player in all of college basketball. Louisville will play hard, but it will not be able to match the skill level Kentucky can put on the court.
Who Will Win
This is not going to be a blowout, but in the end, Kentucky's superior talent is simply too much to ignore. Louisville coach Rick Pitino will devise a good game plan, but Kentucky's dynamic starting five plus key reserve Darius Miller will outlast the Cardinals in a good, tough game.
College Basketball Betting Pick: Kentucky
Ohio State - Kansas Preview
Sportspic.com
The Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats regularly play during the regular season. Ohio State and Kansas don't, but they did play in December of 2011, setting up their rematch.
Why Ohio State Will Win
When you do your homework and assess your Sports Bet on this game, you must realize that two simple facts are working in favor of the Buckeyes. First of all, they'll have at least a little bit of revenge on their minds. They lost to Kansas on Dec. 10 by a score of 78-67. That game is something that both teams will be thinking about this week leading up to their night fight in New Orleans (it's the second national semifinal at roughly 8:50 p.m. Eastern time, following Louisville-Kentucky), but it will be especially paramount in the minds of the Buckeye players, who were tossed around and overwhelmed at Phog Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas.
Ohio State will want to make a better showing this time around, and since the game will be played on a neutral floor and not on KU's home court, the odds are certainly better for the Buckeyes. The second key fact is that OSU big man Jared Sullinger did not play against Kansas. He was injured, making it that much easier for Kansas to establish a pronounced advantage at both ends of the floor. Kansas will have a hard time handling Sullinger in the low post, not just because Sullinger is a prime-time player, but because the Jayhawks will find it hard to adjust to the experience of playing Ohio State with all of its weapons intact.
Kansas has already game-planned and schemed for Ohio State, beating the Buckeyes once this season, but that time came with Sullinger on the bench. Kansas can say all it wants about prepping for Sullinger, and yes, the Jayhawks have an excellent coach in Bell Self who will give them a good plan, but it will still be hard for KU to actually put that plan into operation. Ohio State should have more leverage, more motivation, and more confidence in this contest. Those claims point to a Buckeye victory.
Why Kansas Will Win
The College Basketball Betting experts who follow the sport will tell you that Ohio State probably has an advantage here, but they will also tell you that Kansas has surpassed all odds in getting to this point. The Jayhawks are not as deep or as talented as they've been in past years. They underachieved in the past two NCAA tournaments but have overachieved this time around. Most specifically, big man Jeff Withey has surprised everyone in the sport, emerging as a force near the rim as a shot-blocker and rebounder. Withey is the X-factor who can stop Sullinger and shift the calculus of this game in the Jayhawks' favor.
Who Will Win
This is not a lock, but it's not a toss-up, either. Ohio State's quest for revenge, plus the addition of Sullinger to this contest, will give the Buckeyes two hard-to-deny advantages. Kansas could limit Ohio State in the paint, but Buckeye guard Aaron Craft is likely to shut down KU point guard Tyshawn Taylor. OSU has better matchups at all five positions on the floor.
College Basketball Betting Pick: Ohio State
Final Four Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Louisville vs. Kentucky
As of Friday afternoon, most books had Kentucky (36-2 straight up, 15-21-1 against the spread) favored by 8 ½ or nine. As for the total, it was at 137 1/2 at most spots. U of L is plus-400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).
Louisville (30-9 SU, 22-13-1 ATS) has won eight straight games both SU and ATS, including this past Saturday’s 72-68 come-from-behind win over Florida. Russ Smith scored 19 points in just 22 minutes off the bench to spark a 12-1 run that helped the Cardinals overcome an 11-point deficit with 8:14 remaining. Chane Behanan added 17 points, including several key buckets in the lane at crunch time.
Rick Pitino has U of L in its ninth Final Four and its first since 2005. The Cards won the Big East Tournament at MSG in NYC and then rolled off wins over Davidson (69-62), New Mexico (59-56) and Michigan St. (57-44) before beating the Gators.
Kentucky has taken the cash in three consecutive games since failing to cover the number in an 81-66 win over Western Kentucky in its NCAA opener. The Wildcats blasted Iowa St. by an 87-71 count as 12-point favorites and they followed that up by avenging a regular-season loss at Indiana with 102-90 win. John Calipari’s team covered the number as a 10-point favorite against the Hoosiers in their Sweet 16 showdown at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.
In the South Region finals against third-seeded Baylor, Kentucky fell behind 10-5 in the early going. However, it was all ‘Cats after that as they cruised to an 82-70 win in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated. Davis enjoyed another day at the office against the Bears, producing 18 points, 11 rebounds and six blocked shots. Kidd-Gilchrist paced UK with 19 points, while Terrence Jones had 12 points, nine boards, six assists and three blocked shots.
These teams met on New Year’s Eve in Lexington at Rupp Arena with UK capturing a 69-62 victory as a 10-point ‘chalk.’ The 131 points stayed ‘under’ the 136-point total. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist exploded for 24 points and 19 rebounds. Anthony Davis added 18 points, 10 boards, six blocked shots and three steals, while Doron Lamb was also in double figures with 10 points. Russ Smith was the only U of L player in double figures, scoring a game-high 30 points.
Louisville owns an 8-3 spread record with six outright wins in 11 games as an underdog this season.
UK has compiled a 5-6 ATS record in 11 games as a single-digit favorite.
The ‘under’ is 21-15 overall for Louisville, 10-2 in its last 12 games.
The ‘under’ is 19-16-2 overall for the ‘Cats, who have seen the ‘over’ hit in four consecutive games.
The ‘under’ is on an 11-2 roll in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals.
Tip-off is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
Kansas vs. Ohio State
As of Friday, most spots had Ohio St. (31-7 SU, 20-13 ATS) installed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 136 ½. Bettors can take KU to win outright for a plus-130 return (risk 100 to win $130).
Thad Matta’s team is back in the Final Four for the first time since 2007, when it lost to Florida in the national-title game. The Buckeyes earned their 10th Final Four berth in school history with last Saturday’s night’s 77-70 win over Syracuse as 2 ½-point favorites. Jared Sullinger was the catalyst with 19 points and seven rebounds. Lenzelle Smith Jr. added 18 points and Deshaun Thomas finished with 14 points and nine boards.
Kansas (31-6 SU, 18-17-1 ATS) advanced to the national semifinals thanks to an 80-67 win over banged-up North Carolina in the Elite Eight. The Jayhawks hooked up their backers as two-point favorites, utilizing a triangle-and-two defense for a good chunk of the second half to stymie the Tar Heels. Tyshawn Taylor snapped out of a scoring slump to drop 22 points on UNC. Taylor also had six rebounds, five assists and five steals. Thomas Robinson finished with 18 points and nine rebounds.
Ohio St. senior William Buford knocked down 6-of-8 free throws against the ‘Cuse to get into double figures with 13 points. However, we should note his prolonged shooting slump going into this weekend. Buford, who averages 14.4 points per game, has scored below his average in six of the Bucks’ last seven games. He went 3-for-12 from the field against the ‘Cuse, 1-for-8 against Cincy and 4-of-13 against Gonzaga.
These schools met in the regular season in Lawrence with KU winning by a 78-67 count as a 1 ½-point home favorite. But Sullinger was injured and did not dress out against the Jayhawks, who got 21 points and seven rebounds out of Robinson. Taylor dished out 13 assists, while Elijah Johnson chipped in with 15 points. Buford scored a team-high 21 points for the Buckeyes, who got 19 points from Deshaun Thomas.
KU has been an underdog four times this year, posting a 1-2-1 ATS record with one outright win at Baylor (68-54).
Ohio St. has compiled a 7-9 spread record in 16 games as a single-digit favorite.
The ‘over’ has been a huge money maker in Ohio St. games recently, cashing at a 10-1 clip in its last 11 outings. For the season, the ‘over’ is 20-11-2 overall.
The ‘under’ is 21-13-2 overall for KU.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
South Carolina made a brilliant hire when it plucked Frank Martin away from Kansas St. According to multiple reports, K-St. AD John Currie didn’t make much effort to keep Martin, who took the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament four times in five seasons. That’s a good thing for the Gamecocks, who won just two SEC games this year. Martin will change the hoops culture in Columbia fast.
Even if Bradley Beal bolts for the NBA after his freshman season, Billy Donovan and UF will return the entire roster with the exception of Erving Walker and Beal, who is expected to be a lottery pick. Beal is returning home to St. Louis this weekend to discuss his future with his family. ESPN.com’s Chad Ford has Beal as the No. 4 pick in the first round in his latest mock draft. However, Beal’s father Bobby told the Gainesville Sun, “I know it’s going to be a hard decision for him. Some people say (leaving) is a no-brainer, but I know that he loves college, loves the atmosphere down there. He’s the kind of kid that when he starts something, he likes to finish it.”
Kansas assistant Danny Manning has been named the new head coach at Tulsa. Manning, a superstar player who led the Jayhawks to the 1988 national title, paid his dues and went about becoming a head coach the right way. Congrats and best of luck to him.
NCAAB Preview
Kentucky (-10) beat Louisville 69-62 on New Year's Eve; if I remember right, Cardinals hit two treys in last 0:10 to cover spread in game they trailed 31-16 early. Russ Smith had 30 off bench for Louisville, but two starting guards combined to shoot 4-23. Favorites covered three of four regional finals last week; going back 18 years, last four times favorites did that well in regional finals, underdogs covered two of three in Final Four all four times. Over last 25 years, #1 seed won/covered four of five against #4 seed in national semifinals. Kentucky shot 35.9% when it lost to Vanderbilt in this building 20 days ago; in its only other loss, Indiana made 9-15 from arc back on December 10, in 72-71 win. Since 1999, #1 seed is 7-1 vs spread in national semis against a #3 or lower seed.
Kansas (-1) beat Ohio State 78-67 in Lawrence Dec 10, shooting 58% in game Sullinger missed (back); Thomas had 13 assists despite a sore knee. This is first time since 1995 pair of #2 seeds meet in national semifinals; underdog won that game, which was only meeting of 2's in national semi since tournament went to 64 teams. Over last seven years, favorites are 9-5 vs spread in national semis, but dogs are 5-3 in semifinals if spread was less than 3 points. Kansas holds opponents to 40% inside the arc, (#1 in nation); they're 13-1 in last 14 games, losing only to Baylor in Big X tourney. Ohio State won eight of its last nine games, losing in final of Big Dozen tournament to Michigan State.
Armadillosports.com
NCAA Final Four Preview & Pick: Louisville vs. Kentucky
By Covers.com
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-8.5, 136)
THE STORY: One of college basketball’s fiercest rivalries figures to rise to an unprecedented level of intensity when the Cardinals and Wildcats meet in New Orleans for a berth in the national championship game. Kentucky’s appearance in the Final Four is no surprise. The Wildcats lost just one game in the regular season and have faced little opposition in rolling to 36 victories in 38 games. The Cardinals, meanwhile, saved their best work for late in the season. Louisville, which won the Big East tournament championship, rides an eight-game winning streak into New Orleans. Kentucky beat the Cardinals 69-62 on New Year’s Eve in Lexington and owns a 29-14 lead in the series.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (30-9): The Cardinals lost four of their final six games entering the Big East tournament and battled injuries all season long. So how did Louisville win the conference title and then slay top-seed Michigan State and Florida on its way to New Orleans? Start with defense. The Cardinals have allowed just 56.3 points during their winning streak, and smothered Florida with a 23-8 surge in the final 10 minutes of the West Regional final on Saturday. The Cardinals rank third nationally in 3-point field-goal percentage defense (38.0 percent) and seventh in steals (8.9). But can Louisville play well enough on offense to stay close to Kentucky? The Cardinals shoot just 42.5 percent from the field (220th in the nation). Sophomore Russ Smith led the Cardinals with 19 points in the regional final, and Louisville got 17 points from freshman Chane Behanan, the West Regional’s most outstanding player.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (36-2): In their first four NCAA games, the Wildcats showed both the ability to completely take control with dominant stretches against Western Kentucky, Iowa State and Baylor, and the toughness to hold a stubborn Indiana just out of striking distance. The Wildcats’ balanced attack has shined in the tournament. Freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist earned most outstanding player honors of the South Regional after scoring 43 points in his past two games. Kentucky shot 80.2 percent from the free-throw line in its past two games (65-for-81), and continues to make life tough on opposing offenses with its strong interior defense (six blocks by freshman Anthony Davis against Baylor). Kentucky leads the nation in blocked shots (8.6) and field-goal percentage defense (37.5 percent).
TRENDS:
* Under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Wildcats are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
* Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.
TIP-INS:
1. The Cardinals and Wildcats did not play for 24 years, until the 1983 Mideast Regional final, won by Louisville 80-68 in overtime. That game led to the renewal of a series that dates back to 1913.
2. The Wildcats are two wins away from their first national title since 1998. Their coach in that championship season? Current Louisville coach Rick Pitino.
3. Louisville scored 15 points off turnovers against Florida, illustrating the Cardinals’ pressure-driven defense that’s helped fueled their late-season surge.
Pick: Kentucky
NCAA Final Four Preview & Pick: Ohio State vs. Kansas
By Covers.com
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (+2.5, 136.5)
THE STORY: Something was missing when Kansas beat then-No. 2 Ohio State on Dec. 10 at Allen Fieldhouse -- namely Buckeyes star Jared Sullinger -- but both teams will be at full strength for the rematch Saturday in New Orleans. Sullinger and teammate Deshaun Thomas will clash with Kansas star Thomas Robinson and 7-footer Jeff Withey in a matchup of two of the nation's top frontcourt duos.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (31-7): The Buckeyes are in their 10th Final Four and are seeking their second title -- and their first since 1960 -- after a 77-70 win over No. 1 seed Syracuse on Saturday. They're certainly peaking at the right time to win it. After losing three of five during a rough stretch in February, the Buckeyes have won eight of nine, with the loss coming in the Big Ten tournament final against Michigan State. Five Buckeyes have averaged double-digits in the tournament, led by Thomas' 21.8 points to go with 8.5 rebounds per game.
ABOUT KANSAS (31-6): The Jayhawks advanced to their 14th Final Four with an 80-67 win over No. 1 seed North Carolina on Sunday. It's the Jayhawks' second trip to the Final Four under coach Bill Self, who led them to the 2008 national title. Robinson led the Jayhawks with 21 points and seven rebounds in the first meeting, but he almost certainly will see a different defensive look from the Buckeyes with Sullinger in the lineup. Perhaps more important to the Jayhawks, though, is whether senior point guard Tyshawn Taylor can give a more consistent performance than in the first meeting -- he had nine points and 13 assists, but also seven turnovers, in the victory in December.
TRENDS:
* Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven NCAA tournament games.
* Jayhawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten.
* Over is 10-1 in Buckeyes' last 11 overall.
* Under is 17-4 in Jayhawks' last 21 NCAA tournament games.
TIP-INS:
1. The Jayhawks have won six of nine all-time meetings, including four straight.
2. Both teams have come to expect double-doubles from their star forwards. Robinson has set a Kansas record with 26 this season, and Sullinger is 10th all-time at Ohio State with 34 in his career.
3. Kansas has won 13 of 14 to reach the 30-win plateau for the third straight year and the fifth time in six seasons.
Pick: Ohio State