College Basketball Information
UConn was down 3 with 0:45 left in first round game with St Joe's, won in OT, beat Iowa State by 5, when Cyclones were playing without best player. Huskies played regionals in NYC, giving them two virtual home games. Florida won its last 30 games; last loss was 65-64 (+4) at UConn on Dec 2 in Storrs; Huskies made 11-24 from arc, outscored Florida 5-2 in last 1:18, after Wilbekin hurt his ankle with 3:01 left. Last ten times there was a Final Four with only one #1 seed, the #1 seed won the title seven of those 10 years. All four Gator wins in this tournament are by 10+ points; since 2005, #1 seeds are 11-2 in Final Four vs non-#1-seeds, but only 8-5 against the spread.
Bo Ryan won four national titles in D-III, so he's been in Final Fours a lot, just not this one. Wisconsin is 13-2 in last 15 games, since a 1-5 skid in January- they beat Florida by 6 way back in November, its only game vs SEC opponent. Since 2000, favorites are 9-6 vs spread in Final Four games without a #1 seed in it. Since '92, teams lower than a #4-seed are 7-10 against spread in Final Four games. Last five times a lower-seeded team was favored over a higher seed, the higher seed went 4-1 vs spread. Kentucky starts five freshmen; all four of its tourney wins are by seven or less points. Wildcats split pair vs Big Dozen teams, beating Michigan, losing to Michigan State- they hold opponents to 32% from arc, #59 in country, very important when playing drive/kick game of Wisconsin.
Faster-paced game in Game 2 favored Fresno squad that went 35-43 on foul line in easy (led by 26 with 13:45 left) 89-75 win; Bulldogs scored a ridiculously good 1.31 ppp, making 15-21 inside arc, 8-15 outside. Siena is at home, but playing in on-campus gym rather than downtown arena. Saints trailed Game 1 by 6 at half in Fresno, held Bulldogs to 25 points in second half- road team won both series games. Siena won eight of last ten games, Fresno won 13 of last 17. 11:30 local tipoff time is 8:30 PT. Siena will have home crowd behind then in 4,000-seat arena, but it was not much of a help in Game 2. Four different Bulldogs took 8+ FTs in Game 2. Fresno took total of 13 foul shots in Game 1.
Armadillosports.com
Final Four Breakdown
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
There’s only four teams left standing in the NCAA Tournament, and we're set to break all four of them down, stating how they can win the National Championship, and how they can lose it as well.
Florida Gators (36-2, 18-15-1 ATS) – The biggest issue which the Gators have right now is that they very well could end up playing two teams in Arlington who beat them in the regular season. The good news? They haven't lost a game since losing to Connecticut up at Gampel Pavilion back in early December. UF has the best "team" in this field as we see it, and the only way that it ends up not capturing a third National Championship under the Billy Donovan’s watch is if the team gets three-point shot happy instead of getting the ball down in the paint to Casey Prather and the rest of the bigs with regularity.
Wisconsin Badgers (30-7, 21-16 ATS) – This Wisconsin team is sort of the anti-Kentucky. There isn't a freshman in the bunch that is playing big minutes. The pros for the Badgers? They're disciplined, they play smart offensive basketball, and they have held their foes under 30 points in six of their eight halves here in the dance. The problem? For our money, they're the least talented side left in this tournament, especially if someone can find some way to match up against Frank Kaminsky. For as good as Shabazz Napier has been for the Huskies, Kaminsky is the MVP of this tournament so far in our eyes.
Connecticut Huskies (30-8, 21-15 ATS) – Our team of the tournament, UConn has made it from a team which should have been knocked out in the opening round against St. Joe's to a team which is just 80 minutes of basketball away from a National Championship. Much like Wisconsin, the problem that the Huskies have now is that they don't have the more talented team on the floor regardless of who the foe is. However, Shabazz Napier is the great equalizer, and if there is a way to beat Florida for a second time this year, it would be his heroics that get the job done. Napier went for 26 points against UF when these teams met in Storrs, and he’s put up at least 24 on the board in three of UConn’s four tourney games.
Kentucky Wildcats (28-10, 19-15-2 ATS) – The Cats might have been a bubble team just four weeks ago, but their run to the SEC Tournament Final is all that really assured they would be in the dance. They have been considered a dangerous team every step of the way, and once they cleared the hurdle of the undefeated Shockers, they were going to be well on their way to the Final Four. The talent is awfully rich at Kentucky, and Head Coach John Calipari knows that he has the best team in America in terms of talent. The only way that falls apart is if it all of a sudden loses that chemistry which it has built over the course of the last few weeks. The only concern from that standpoint is whether Willie Cauley-Stein had a ton to do with that chemistry. His season is likely over with an ankle injury.
UConn vs. Florida
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Florida (36-2 straight up, 18-15-1 against the spread) hasn't tasted defeat since Dec. 2 when it lost a 65-64 decision at Connecticut when Shabazz Napier buried a buzzer beater to lift his team to victory. Napier killed the Gators with 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field and 5-of-8 connections from 3-point land.
In fairness to UF, it didn't have reserve freshman point guard Kasey Hill, who was out with a sprained ankle. Also, back-up freshman center Chris Walker wasn't eligible yet. Most of all, though, SEC Player of the Year Scottie Wilbekin sprained his ankle with about four minutes left and was getting treatment in the locker room at crunch time.
Therefore, Billy Donovan's team didn't have a point guard down the stretch. Nevertheless, Florida took the cash as a four-point underdog, while the 129 combined points stayed 'under' the 131-point total.
The game in Storrs featured 14 lead changes, including three in last minute, and six ties. The game was not without controversy, however. With UF leading 62-59 with 33.5 ticks remaining, Napier buried a 3-pointer to tie things up.
There was nothing wrong with the tying trey, but the whistle was absolute garbage. In vintage Reggie Miller-fashion, Napier stuck his leg out as Michael Frazier II breezed past him in contesting the shot attempt. All credit to Napier, as he sold it like the best used-car salesman in the business.
Napier made the free throw for the four-point play and a one-point UConn advantage. Frazier answered with a driving score to put the Gators back in front with 17.7 left. Then the real drama ensued.
As UConn tried to run a high pick-and-roll play for Napier off the dribble, UF perfectly defended it and forced Napier to pick up his dribble with a swarming trap. When Napier couldn't find anyone to pass to, he split the trap and started dribbling again.
Alas, no double dribble was called and Napier rushed a shot that was a hard brick off the glass. The ball came off so hard that it was deflected out into the waiting arms of Napier, who fired away from just inside the top of the key before the horn sounded and got nothing buy nylon.
In the losing effort, UF senior forward Casey Prather scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds. Patric Young added 17 points and seven boards. Wilbekin had 15 points before getting injured.
Since the loss, Florida has won 30 consecutive games to easily break a school record. The Gators, who are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 outings, have won all four NCAA Tournament games by double-digit margins.
After getting past Albany in a non-covering triumph in Orlando, UF advanced to its fourth straight Sweet 16 by spanking Pittsburgh 61-45 as a 5.5-point 'chalk.' Wilbekin was the catalyst with a game-high 21 points, including a 3-pointers at the first-half buzzer that gave the Gators momentum and a 27-22 advantage at intermission.
I was in Memphis last weekend and saw UF eliminate a talented UCLA squad by a 79-68 count as a 4.5-point favorite. Frazier was the hero with a game-high 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting from deep. He drained four consecutive 3-pointers at one point in the first half to allow the Gators to create some distance from the Bruins, who had won five in a row, including wins over Oregon, Stanford, Arizona and Stephen F. Austin.
Playing in its fourth straight Elite Eight, Florida's senior-laden team finally got the monkey off its back. Sure, it was fortunate to face a double-digit seed in Dayton so deep in the Tournament, but a similar scenario against Butler at the 2011 South Region finals in New Orleans didn't work out.
This time around, UF captured a 62-52 win as a 10.5-point favorite. Donovan's bunch used a 15-1 run late in the first half, including a fourth last-second Wilbekin 3-pointer in the last six games, to get past the Flyers, who never got closer than eight in the second half.
UConn (30-8 SU, 21-15 ATS) got a wake-up call after getting blasted 81-48 at Louisville as a nine-point underdog on March 8. Since then, Kevin Ollie's squad has won six of its last seven games both SU and ATS, including four NCAA Tourney wins over St. Joseph's, Villanova, Iowa St. and Michigan St. All six victories came over NCAA-bound foes, including Cincinnati and Memphis at the inaugural AAC Tournament.
Although UConn is in the Final Four as a No. 7 seed, I wouldn't say anything it has done has surprised me with the exception of the win over Sparty, a No. 4 seed that I expected to make it to North Texas.
In its NCAA opener, UConn needed overtime and outstanding free-throw shooting (18-of-20 for 90%) to get past St. Joe's. The Huskies hooked up their backers with an extremely fortunate cover as five-point favorites. Napier produced 24 points, eight rebounds, six assists and three steals. DeAndre Daniels added 18 points.
Ollie's team sent second-seeded Villanova packing with a 77-65 third-round win as a four-point underdog. Napier was limited to eight minutes of playing time in the first half after picking up two quick fouls. Nevertheless, the All-American scored 21 of his game-high 25 points in the second half to guide his team to the winner's circle.
UConn caught a pair of key breaks in the East Region semifinals (and finals) last weekend. First, the venue was Madison Square Garden in New York City, resulting in a huge crowd advantage for the Huskies thanks to their loyal fans who descended upon the Big Apple. Secondly, they faced an Iowa St. team playing without one of the Big 12's best players in Georges Niang, who broke his foot in the Cyclones' opening win of the Tourney.
Whatever the case, UConn got it done and took out Iowa St. 81-76 in a pick 'em affair. Daniels was the catalyst, erupting for 27 points and 10 rebounds. Napier contributed 19 points, five boards and five helpers.
In Sunday's Elite Eight showdown versus red-hot Michigan St., it was UConn's defense that was pivotal in a 60-54 win as a five-point underdog. Napier's game-high 25 points were the difference and his 9-for-9 shooting at the charity stripe helped put the game on ice.
As of early Thursday morning, most books had the Gators favored by 6.5 with a total of 126.5. Gamblers can take the Huskies on the money line for a +250 return.
The 'under' is 22-11-1 overall for Florida, although the 'over' appeared in its NCAA wins over Albany and UCLA. The 'under' is 22-13 overall for UConn, but the 'over' hit in its first three Tourney games before the 'under' appeared in its win over the Spartans.
Tip-off is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. CBS will have the broadcast from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets
The updated future odds at most books have UF as the even-money 'chalk' to win the title on Monday night. Kentucky has +330 odds (risk $100 to win $330), while Wisconsin and UConn are at +375 and +770, respectively.
This is UF's fourth trip to the Final Four in Donovan's storied 18-year tenure. He is 3-0 in the national semifinals. The Gators are in the Final Four for the fifth time in school history. Their only semifinal loss came in Charlotte in 1994 when they allowed an 11-point second-half lead to get away against Duke, which won in come-from-behind fashion thanks to the late-game heroics of a dude named Grant Hill.
UF is gunning for its third national title in the last nine years, while UConn is aiming for a fourth national championship since 1999.
During UF's 30-game winning streak, it has won by six points or more 24 times.
Napier averages team-highs in scoring (18.1 PPG), rebounding (5.9 RPG), assists (4.9 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG).
Final Four Preview
By ASAWins.com
Florida (-6.5) vs. UConn
The Gators are 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games and they are 10-1 SU this season on a neutral court. UConn is 8-0 SU on neutral courts this season. They are on a 6-1 ATS overall run and are 8-4 ATS this season as an underdog.
FLORIDA
Why the Gators will win it all: The odds-on favorite to win the tournament, Florida, has won 30 straight games and hasn't lost a game since December 2nd. The Gators have dominated the competition, winning each of their four tournament games by 10 points or more. They rank 1st in KenPom rankings and are the only remaining team that fits the championship mold; top 18 in offensive efficiency and top 21 in defensive efficiency. The Gators’ defense, which is No. 1 in the country in efficiency, has held each tournament opponent to less than one point per possession. It has also held its four opponents under 42% field goals and under 30% three pointers in the tournament. They've gotten to the charity stripe 30 more times and are making 74% of their FT attempts in the tournament.
Why the Gators won’t win it all: Despite being the odds-on favorite, the Gators have an extremely tough road ahead of them. The Gators' only two losses this season came against UConn and Wisconsin - both fellow Final Four squads. The other Final Four team, Kentucky, matched up with Florida three times in SEC play and lost by just one point to Florida in the SEC Tournament Final. The Gators have had the easiest road here, beating a No. 16, a No. 9, a No. 4, and a No. 11. They haven’t been truly tested since beating Kentucky in the SEC Final. Florida has made 74% of its free throws in the tournament, but ranked 279th in free throw percentage during the regular season.
UCONN
Why the Huskies will win it all: The Huskies have the best playmaker remaining in guard Shabazz Napier. Napier is averaging 23.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals while shooting 45.2 percent from three in the Huskies' four tournament wins so far. UConn has made 40% of its three pointers in four tournament wins thus far. The Huskies have a very solid defense. They rank 10th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings and 13th in opponents field goal percentage (39.2%). They get to the charity stripe often and convert at an astonishing rate (4th nationally in free throw percentage). They made an astounding 81-of-92 (88%) free throws through the first four tournament games.
Why the Huskies won’t win it all: UConn had a relatively easy road here. They were lucky to come away with a win over Saint Joseph's in their first game, beat a cold-shooting Villanova squad in round of 32, and benefitted from a HUGE home-court advantage of playing at Madison Square Garden in the last two games against Iowa State and Michgian State. Outside of Napier, UConn's supporting cast can be a bit sporadic and they're unlikely to overcome a poor-shooting night from Napier.
Kentucky (-1.5) vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its four tournament games and has yet to lose to a team outside of the Big Ten this season. They are 4-1 SU & ATS as an underdog this season. Three of the four tournament games have finished "under" the total. Kentucky has covered each of its past seven games. The total has gone "over" in three of its four tournament games.
WISCONSIN
Why the Badgers will win it all: Wisconsin is the only team in the country to beat the regular season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac-12 this year. The Badgers are the most fundamentally sound team remaining. They are extremely smart with the basketball as they turn it over at just a 12.7% rate (ranked 2nd nationally) and they don't commit silly fouls (3rd in opponents free throw rate). They don't give teams many 2nd chances either, ranking 18th in defensive rebounding percentage. Unlike previous editions of Wisconsin hoops, this one is built on an uber-efficient offense, ranking fourth in adjusted efficiency on KenPom.com.
Why the Badgers won’t win it all: Though the defense has looked strong in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Baylor, this unit still ranks just 45th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Ben Brust, Traevon Jackson and Josh Gasser, Wisconsin’s starting guards who all average 31+ minutes per game, stand 6-1, 6-2 and 6-3, respectively. Kentucky's backcourt of the Harrison twins and Young are all 6-6. They are very thin in the frontcourt behind Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes. Should either of the two get in foul trouble, it would spell bad news for the Badgers.
KENTUCKY
Why the Wildcats will win it all: Kentucky disposed of the only unbeaten team in the country (Wichita State), the defending national champion (Louisville) and the defending national runner-up (Michigan). The Wildcats have the most talented roster in Dallas. Four players average 11 PPG or more and star forward Julius Randle has notched a double-double in all four tournament games. They are probably the best rebounding team left. In its last three wins, Kentucky has outrebounded its opponents by an average of 9.3 boards per game. That advantage is especially obvious on the offensive end, where the ‘Cats boast the country’s top offensive rebounding percentage (42.5 percent). In fact, Kentucky has grabbed at least 10 offensive boards in each of its last three victories.
Why the Wildcats won’t win it all: All that talent on the roster comes with inexperience and youth. They are, by far, the youngest team in Dallas and you never know what to expect from youth in big stages – especially with five freshman in the starting lineup. Kentucky converted on just under 40% of its three-point attempts in four tournament games after making just 33.2% during the regular season (ranked 231st nationally). Kentucky can't afford to go back to its old shooting ways in the Final Four. The Wildcats rank 174th in turnover percentage and were -15 in turnover ratio through the first four tournament games.
Young 'Cats face another test
By Sportsbook.ag
Kentucky (28-10) vs. Wisconsin (30-7)
NCAA Tournament: Final Four National Semifinals
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -1.5, Total: 140
Bo Ryan will look to keep his team rolling in his first Final Four appearance on Saturday night as his Wisconsin squad takes on young and talented Kentucky.
Neither of these teams was playing like a Final Four contender a month ago, as the Wildcats went through a 3-4 SU stretch before starting their current seven-game ATS win streak, with the only SU loss during this timeframe coming by one point to No. 1 Florida. They got to this point by beating a couple of favorites in undefeated Wichita State and defending champion Louisville before outlasting Michigan 75-72 on Sunday on a late three-pointer by Aaron Harrison.
The Badgers were a dismal 1-5 (SU at ATS) from Jan. 14 to Feb. 1, but have gone 13-2 SU (9-6 ATS) in their past 15 contests, knocking off Arizona 64-63 in overtime in the West Regional Final. Wisconsin is a versatile offensive team that is as disciplined as any school in the country (nation-low 8.1 turnovers per game), and will test a freshman-laden Kentucky team that has really grown over the past month. In both the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Indianapolis, the eighth-seeded Wildcats found themselves in a double-digit hole early in the game.
Earlier in the season, this team would have folded, but it has developed a mental toughness to match all the young talent. Kentucky enters the Final Four with 10 straight NCAA Tournament wins and an outstanding 14-4 ATS mark (78%) in the Big Dance under head coach John Calipari. For this season, the club is a pedestrian 19-17 ATS overall, but 8-2 ATS on neutral courts.
Wisconsin is similar in both regards, going 19-16-2 ATS overall, but 7-1-1 ATS on neutral courts. This No. 2-seeded team is also 7-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in the past three seasons when seeded fourth or higher.
The only significant injury in this game is Wildcats C Willie Cauley-Stein, who is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out of action in the Elite Eight.
These teams have not met since 2003 in the NCAA Tournament when Kentucky prevailed 63-57 but failed to cover the big 11-point spread.
Kentucky was ranked No. 1 in the nation to start the season, and the youngsters didn't handle that pressure very well, as they were trying to do too much. But they have learned to let the game come to them, and are as confident as ever. The Wildcats have had a quality offense this season, averaging 75.4 PPG (60th in nation) on 45.4% FG (118th in Div. I).
But they do not shoot well from long range (33.2% threes, 214th in nation) or at the foul line (68.5% FT, 220th in Div. I), and are not very efficient in handling the ball with a minus-1.4 TOPG margin (278th in nation) and a weak 0.92 Ast/TO ratio (249th in Div. I).
They do a solid job on defense though, allowing 66.6 PPG (82nd in nation) on just 41.0% FG (54th in Div. I) and 32.0% threes (58th in nation). These numbers are helped greatly by their elite rebounding (+9.8 RPG margin, 2nd in Div. I) and interior defense (6.1 BPG, 10th in nation). Kentucky grabs 14.6 offensive RPG (5th in Div. I), which has helped the club lead the country in free-throw attempts (1,101).
The biggest reason for the team's resurgence is the play of PF Julius Randle (15.1 PPG, 10.7 RPG) who leads the nation with 24 double-doubles. The freshman has been dominant in his first NCAA Tournament, recording a double-double in all four games with averages of 15.8 PPG (48% FG) and 12.0 RPG.
The twin backcourt of Aaron Harrison (14.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG) and Andrew Harrison (11.0 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.1 RPG) continues to improve every game, and will have huge advantages when it comes to size against the Badgers guards with their 6-foot-6 statures. Both Harrisons are enjoying solid NCAA Tournament performances with a combined 28.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG and 5.8 APG, but Aaron has only two assists and seven turnovers, while Andrew has shot just 37% FG and 3-of-11 threes.
While Aaron Harrison's game-winning three versus Michigan is getting all the talk, the Wildcats would not have won that contest if not for the huge performance by PF Marcus Lee (2.4 PPG, 1.5 RPG in 6.1 MPG). The freshman Lee, filling in for the injured C Willie Cauley-Stein, finished Sunday's game with 10 points and eight rebounds, with seven boards coming on the offensive glass.
With Cauley-Stein (6.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.9 BPG) most likely out for the Final Four, Lee will be counted upon to have another big game.
Swingman James Young (14.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG) scored 13 points on 3-of-4 from the three-point line in Sunday's win, but carries pedestrian season percentages of 41% FG and 35% threes.
The one thing you can count on from a Bo Ryan team is that it will not beat itself, leading the country in fewest turnovers (8.1 TOPG) and placing second in personal fouls (15.0 per game). This is usually a terrific defense, and this season hasn't disappointed, ranking 37th in the nation with 63.7 PPG allowed) while holding opponents to 42.7% FG (122nd in Div. I) and 34.0% threes (156th in nation).
The biggest disadvantage for Wisconsin on Saturday will be on the boards, as this team has a pedestrian +1.6 RPG margin this season (134th in Div. I). The Badgers have some tall players, but they are not nearly as strong or as physical as the Wildcats.
While the Wisconsin offense does not wow the crowd with ultra-athletic plays, the Badgers have a better offense than usual with 73.5 PPG (89th in nation) on 45.9% FG (85th in Div. I), 37.5% threes (55th in nation) and 74.1% FT (36th in Div. I). At most times during the game, Wisconsin will have at least four players that can hit the outside shot.
The top shooter on the team is SG Josh Gasser (8.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG) who knocks down 44% threes and 87% free throws. He does a great job of moving without the ball, allowing himself to get many wide-open shots.
SG Ben Brust (12.8 PPG, 39% threes, 4.5 RPG), PG Traevon Jackson (10.7 PPG, 38% threes, 4.0 APG) and SF Sam Dekker (12.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) are all guys capable of having big scoring nights. Jackson has been consistently great in all four games of the NCAA Tournament with averages of 12.8 PPG (50% FG), 5.5 RPG and 4.5 APG.
This great supporting cast makes it tough to double down on 7-foot C Frank Kaminsky (14.1 PPG, 38% threes, 6.4 RPG). Kaminsky was absolutely dominant in the Elite Eight win over Arizona with 28 points (11-of-20 FG, 3-of-5 threes) and 11 rebounds, increasing his NCAA Tournament averages to 18.5 PPG (55% FG) and 6.0 RPG.
Check out more Final Four Odds and Matchups at Sportsbook.ag
Florida seeks payback
By Sportsbook.ag
Connecticut (30-8) vs. Florida (36-2)
NCAA Tournament: Final Four National Semifinals
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Florida -6.5, Total: 126.5
No. 1 seed Florida will look to exact some revenge in Saturday's Final Four against a heavy underdog Connecticut team that gave the No. 1 seed one of its two losses this season.
Just like three years ago when Kemba Walker led them to a national title, the seventh-seeded Huskies are on another improbable NCAA Tournament run because of a superstar point guard, Shabazz Napier. He has been terrific all season, but has taken his game to another level in the tournament with 23.3 PPG (45% threes), 6.0 RPG and 4.5 APG in the four wins, including 25 points, six boards and four assists in Sunday's East Regional Final over Michigan State. Napier was also responsible for the Gators' most recent loss way back on Dec. 2 when his buzzer-beating jumper was the difference in a 65-64 win in Storrs, CT. Besides Napier's 26 points that night, the biggest reason for the win was the three-point shooting of UConn, which made 11-of-24 threes (46%), compared to its opponent's 3-for-9 clip from behind the arc.
But since that defeat, Florida has reeled off 30 straight victories (14-13-2 ATS) with all four NCAA Tournament wins coming by double-digits. The Gators are also led by a dynamic point guard in Scottie Wilbekin, who has averaged 16.8 PPG and 3.0 APG in the NCAA Tournament, including 23 points in the Elite Eight win over Cinderella Dayton last Saturday. UConn (21-15 ATS, 6-5 ATS on neutral courts) has had a difficult path to the Final Four, having to beat teams that play different styles of basketball. After needing overtime to beat Saint Joseph's in the Round of 64, the Huskies then outlasted two great offensive teams in No. 2 seed Villanova and No. 3 seed Iowa State before disrupting a physical Michigan State team with a defense that forced 16 Spartans turnovers.
Florida (17-14-3 ATS overall, 4-3-2 ATS on neutral courts) had made the Elite Eight the previous three seasons, but had not been able to get over that hump. But this is a better defensive squad than those other teams, holding NCAA Tournament opponents to a mere 55.0 PPG on 39.9% FG.
Although the Gators are clearly the better rebounding team, including a 34-26 edge on the boards in the Dec. 2 meeting, Connecticut is 7-0 ATS in non-home games versus good rebounding teams (4+ RPG margin) after 15+ games in the past two seasons.
However, Florida has risen to the occasion versus great teams all season, going 11-3 ATS (79%) when facing a school outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG.
UConn does not possess an explosive offense with only 72.4 PPG (125th in nation) on 44.8% FG (141st in Div. I), but this is a terrific shooting team both from long range (38.9% threes, 27th in nation), and from the free throw line (77.4% FT, 5th in Div. I). In the four NCAA Tournament wins, the Huskies have made a remarkable 81-of-92 free throws (88%), including 41-of-44 (93%) in the past two victories.
Connecticut also does a great job on the defensive end of the court where it limits opponents to 63.7 PPG (38th in nation) on 39.2% FG (13th in Div. I) and 33.3% threes (120th in nation). Although this is a poor rebounding team (+0.4 RPG margin, 180th in Div. I), the club does a great job of blocking shots (5.8 BPG, 16th in nation) and racking up steals with 7.0 SPG (74th in Div. I).
Senior PG Shabazz Napier (17.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 APG) leads this team in nearly every statistical category, and also has Final Four experience as a freshman back in 2011, but he scored just eight points on 2-of-13 shooting in those two victories. But he has certainly developed his game since then, possessing a terrific crossover that allows him to get to the basket at will despite being an undersized point guard. However, while he has been on a tear throughout the tournament, the Huskies have other guys that can score points in bunches.
SF DeAndre Daniels (13.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG) has scored in double-figures in eight straight games, averaging 17.0 PPG (50% FG) and 6.8 RPG during the NCAA Tournament. In the Sweet 16 victory against Iowa State, Daniels finished with 27 points (10-of-15 FG) and 10 rebounds. At 6-foot-9, Daniels is a mismatch with the skills of a two guard, shooting 43% threes and 79% free throws this season. With his length and athleticism, he is very difficult to prevent from getting to the basket, and he gave Florida fits with 14 points (6-of-10 FG) and seven boards in the Dec. 2 win.
Junior Ryan Boatright (12.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.4 APG) is a combination guard that is similar to Napier in that he is always looking to attack the basket. He can also shoot the ball from the perimeter (38% threes), and is one of the quickest players in the country. He has scored in double-figures in all four NCAA Tournament wins (13.8 PPG) and has come up with six steals over the past two contests.
Freshman C Amida Brimah (4.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG) provides very little offense, but shoots 66% FG and does a great job of protecting the rim with 2.3 BPG in just 16.4 MPG.
Senior swingman Niels Giffey (8.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG) knocks down 49% of his threes for the season, but has been in a shooting funk in his past three games at 5-for-18 FG (28%) and 1-of-9 threes. However, he has been the team's best rebounder during the NCAA Tournament with 6.8 RPG. If guys like Napier and Boatright are able to attack the paint like they have this tournament, then Giffey will continue to get open shots. If he is able to get those shots, the Huskies will have a great chance to defeat the Gators for a second time this season.
Florida has everything that a championship team needs with experience, terrific guard play and a huge frontcourt presence. The Gators score just 70.4 PPG (195th in nation), but shoot the ball well at 46.1% FG (77th in Div. I) and 36.2% threes (88th in nation). This is also a very smart team with a +2.4 turnover margin (33rd in Div. I) and just 15.7 personal fouls per game (6th-fewest in nation).
But the reason this team has won 30 straight games is on the strength of its rebounding (+5.1 RPG margin, 25th in Div. I) and defense. Florida limits opponents to a paltry 57.6 PPG (3rd in nation) on 39.9% FG (24th in Div. I) and 32.8% threes (97th in nation). This isn't a great shot-blocking club with only 3.1 BPG (222nd in Div. I), but it compiles 7.1 SPG (60th in nation) thanks to its constant full-court pressure that wears out the opponents.
The team's one Achilles heel is free-throw shooting, as it makes only 66.7% FT (270th in Div. I). With Huskies ability to knock down free throws, the charity stripe could play a huge key in this game if it comes down to the final minutes.
PG Scottie Wilbekin (13.4 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.6 SPG) missed the final 3:01 of the early-season loss in Storrs with an ankle injury, and the offense does not run nearly as smoothly when he's on the bench. Wilbekin isn't a great shooter at 41% FG, but he has knocked down 40% threes and has not committed a turnover in two straight games spanning 73 minutes of action.
Very few players in the country are as imposing as the Gators' muscular senior C Patric Young (10.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG). While he is not going to get a lot of plays called for him, he is tenacious on the offensive glass and gets a lot of second-chance points. Young had a strong game against Dayton last Saturday with 12 points, six rebounds, four blocks and two steals, and powered his way to 17 points and seven boards in the narrow loss at UConn.
Young is also helped out by the team's leading rebounder, PF Dorian Finney-Smith (8.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG). While the sophomore was able to pull down six boards in the meeting in Storrs, he also committed six turnovers in his 24 minutes of action. In his pas three NCAA Tournament games, Finney-Smith has just 6.3 PPG, but also 7.7 RPG.
SF Casey Prather (13.8 PPG, 60% FG, 4.9 RPG) and SG Michael Frazier II (12.6 PPG, 45% threes, 3.5 RPG) are both very difficult to guard on the perimeter. Prather had his way with the Huskies in December with a team-high 19 points (8-of-13 FG) and seven boards. In a game earlier this season, Frazier hit an SEC record 11 three-pointers in a win against South Carolina and has averaged 14.5 PPG (7-of-13 threes) in his past two games. He is the one Gators player that can get a shot in many different ways, and is especially dangerous on the fast break, where he does a great job of spacing the floor to get the wide-open shot.
Check out more Final Four Odds and Matchups at Sportsbook.ag
NCAA Tournament Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Finding a crack in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. But we peel back this weekend's Final Four matchups, looking for some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets this weekend.
Florida Gators vs. UConn Huskies (+6, 126.5)
Gators’ tame defense vs. Huskies’ turnover tenacity
A big part of the Huskies’ improbable Final Four run is their ability to win the turnover battle. Connecticut has 34 total turnovers in the tournament compared to the 54 it has forced opponents to hand over. The Huskies coughed the ball up just six times in the win over Michigan State, while the Spartans posted 16 turnovers.
Florida’s best way to stop Shabazz Napier is to get aggressive on the perimeter, hedge hard on the Huskies’ screen-heavy offense, and make Napier give up the ball. That means those defenders off the ball will need to jump the passing lanes and force Napier to make a bad pass – something they haven’t been great at in the NCAA. The Gators have forced foes to make only 9.3 turnovers the past three games (down from their season average of 13.5) and actually lost the turnover battle, 12-8, versus UCLA in the Sweet 16.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-1.5, 139)
Badgers’ big-shot bigs vs. Wildcats' defensive size
The Wildcats have bullied their way to the Final Four, using their size advantage at almost every position to impose their will on opponents. Kentucky’s beef plugs up the paint and allows the 6-foot-6 guard trio of James Young and the Harrison Bros. to pester the perimeter. However, against the Badgers, Kentucky could find that defense spread thin with Wisconsin’s frontcourt demanding respect from beyond the arc.
The Badgers force opposing forwards to step outside of the paint and get their heels above the 3-point arc, especially Frank Kaminsky. The 7-footer has shown his touch in the tournament with some massive 3-point buckets and shoots nearly 38 percent from distance. Fellow forward Sam Dekker is just as potent from the perimeter. Kentucky is already down a big body with Willie Cauley-Stein out and could find its defense out of order with Wisconsin’s sharp-shooting big men pulling everyone out of the paint.
Final Four Betting Preview: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin
By Covers.com
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
Kentucky was anointed the top team in the country prior to the season and suddenly has an opportunity to emerge as the best at the end of it after a bumpy ride. The eighth-seeded Wildcats face second-seeded Wisconsin in Saturday’s Final Four at Arlington, Texas, and are brimming with confidence due to an impressive tournament run through the Midwest regional. The Badgers qualified for the national semifinals with a solid win over Arizona in the West regional final.
Wisconsin can match the school record for victories by reaching the national title game but will be at an athletic disadvantage against the Wildcats and the players are weary of hearing about it. “You’re in the Final Four, you obviously did something right,” Badgers guard Josh Gasser said at a press conference. “Kentucky deserves credit for a being a good team and I think so do we. We’ve beaten a ton of good teams this year and I think that speaks for itself. We don’t really care what the outside perception is of us.” Wisconsin is in the Final Four for the first time since 2000 while Kentucky is back for the third time in five seasons during John Calipari’s coaching tenure.
LINE HISTORY: The Badgers opened as 2-point dogs and have been bet to +1.5. The total opened 138.5 and is up to 139.
INJURY REPORT: Kentucky: F Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable, ankle)
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Both teams feature 7-foot centers. Both teams have veteran coaches. What Wisconsin lacks in overall team size and athleticism, it more than makes up for with a deep bench. The Wildcats would open as 2.5-point favorites, but money continues to pour in on Wisconsin and that opening line has dropped to 1. " Covers Expert Nick Parsons.
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "I personally made the game a pick’em, but again seeing the kind of support we saw on Kentucky in their recent games, we wanted to open high on them. As predicted, the public has backed the Kentucky but we’ve also seen very sharp support on Wisconsin" Michael Stewart Carbonsports.ag
WHY BET KENTUCKY (28-10 SU, 19-15-2 ATS, 15-19 O/U): Double-double machine Julius Randle (15.1 points, 10.7 rebounds) is the best NBA prospect of the starting freshmen but guard Aaron Harrison (14.1) was the hero in the Elite Eight victory over Michigan when he drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.6 seconds remaining. “I think we all just learned it’s all about winning,” Harrison told reporters at a midweek press conference when asked about Kentucky’s strong tournament showing. “It doesn’t matter individually what you’re doing. You just have to do whatever you can for the team to win.” Guards James Young (14.1) and Andrew Harrison (11 per game) also average in double digits.
WHY BET WISCONSIN (30-7 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-17 O/U): Center Frank Kaminsky (14.1 points) had 28 points and 11 rebounds against Arizona as he continues his transformation from role player last season to go-to scorer. “I really can’t explain it,” Kaminsky told reporters. “It’s just something more of an opportunity this year than in the past. But I can’t thank my teammates enough for helping me get through this.” Guard Ben Brust averages 12.8 points and is 12-of-23 from 3-point range in the NCAA tournament, while forward Sam Dekker (12.4) and point guard Traevon Jackson (10.7) also average in double digits.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 neutral site games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.
Final Four Betting Preview: UConn vs. Florida
By Covers.ocm
Connecticut Huskies vs. Florida Gators (-6, 126.5)
Florida won its 30th straight game to reach the Final Four in north Texas, where they will face the last team to beat them - Connecticut. The top-seeded Gators swept through the South regional and have a chance to avenge both their losses this with the East regional champion Huskies in the mix along with Wisconsin looming in a potential championship game. To get there, Florida will have to find a way to stop Shabazz Napier.
Napier was a freshman on the team Kemba Walker put on his back and carried to a national championship in 2011 and is using a similar model in his senior campaign. The point guard scored 17 of his 25 points in the second half of the regional final victory over Michigan State and has made a habit out of clutch performances in carrying Connecticut. The Gators have a quartet of seniors on which to lean and rarely need any one player to take over the game offensively.
LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 6.5-point faves but now sit -6. The total opened 125 and has been bet upt 126.5.
INJURY REPORT: UConn: G Pat Lenehan (Questionable, undisclosed)
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The Gators have lost only two games this year. They've won 30 games in a row since their last loss. That setback was to these very same Huskies - 65-64 as 4-point underdogs back on Dec. 2. Shabazz Napier of Connecticut is the most dynamic player left in the Tournament, but the oddsmakers clearly believe he'll have his hands full with this tough Florida defense as evidenced by the 6.5-point spread." Covers Expert Nick Parsons.
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Bottom line, this game has been bet fairly evenly with our customers but I can see us eventually getting to 6.5 as we get closer to game time." Michael Stewart, Carbonsports.ag
WHY BET UCONN (30-8 SU, 21-15 ATS, 13-22 O/U): Napier, who was named to the Wooden All-American team Monday, nailed a buzzer-beater to give the Huskies a 65-64 home victory over Florida on Dec. 2, capping a 26-point game. Napier hit five 3-pointers in that contest - two more than the entire Gators team - and has been strong from beyond the arc with 12-of-23 finding the bottom of the net in the last three games. DeAndre Daniels provided plenty of support with 27 points and 10 rebounds in the Sweet 16 win over Iowa State and helped keep Connecticut in the game in the first half of the regional final against Michigan State before Napier got going.
WHY BET FLORIDA (36-2 SU, 18-15-1 ATS, 11-22-1 O/U): The Gators are a dominant defensive team and held their four previous NCAA tournament opponents to an average of 55 points, with only UCLA breaking 60 in a 79-68 decision in the Sweet 16. Florida won each of those four games by double figures and had little trouble slowing down Dayton with a full-court press in the regional final. “One of the things I think it all comes down to is on the defensive end of the floor,” Florida coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “It’s very, very difficult to go on runs if you don’t get stops. I think a lot of our runs can be predicated on the fact that defensively we’ve gotten stops, and stops get you out on the break.”
TRENDS:
* Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.
* Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-3 in Gators last 10 non-conference games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 55 percent of wagers are on the Huskies.
Final Four Analysis
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
The NCAA Tournament never seizes to amaze with another great tournament filled with great down-to-wire games and surprises. This year’s final four is filled with programs familiar with national success but no one expected these four teams to all be together in Dallas. Here is a look at each team and the key matchups in the Final Four.
Florida Gators: As the only #1 seed remaining and the #1 overall ranked team entering the Big Dance, Florida might look like a clear favorite. The championship odds are not overwhelming for Gators however. Florida has lost twice all season and both of those foes are also in the Final Four, setting up a potential storybook ending if they could avenge both of those losses.
Florida has one of the top defenses in the nation and the Gators force opponents in long frustrating possessions. The pace for the Gators certainly impacts the lower scoring numbers for opponents and Florida has not forced turnovers at the same rate in the NCAA Tournament. In the regular season meeting with Connecticut, the Huskies won the turnover battle and had no trouble hitting outside shots with 11 three-point makes. Connecticut is +20 in turnovers so far in the tournament, which has propelled the Huskies to this position.
Florida can also go through great scoring droughts on offense as they struggled early against Albany and Pittsburgh and while they have won the four NCAA Tournament games with an average margin of 12 points, the final scores have often been a bit misleading. While the other teams in the Final Four have all snuck out a few narrow wins in games that could have gone either way, Florida has not needed late drama so far in the tournament. Florida has certainly had the easiest path of any team in the Final Four however, getting a #11 seed in Dayton in the Elite Eight matchup with the most dangerous teams in the region losing early.
The Gators have also been fortunate at the line as they have shot 30 more free throws than their opponents in the four tournament games. Free throw shooting was expected to be a potential Achilles heel for Florida in the postseason, but so far Florida has shot almost 74 percent from the line despite being one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation in the regular season. If there is a matchup that could expose the Gators at the line this is it as Connecticut gets to the line often and has made over 77 percent on the season for one of the best rates in the nation.
Wisconsin Badgers: While the Badgers don’t have the perception of being a great offensive team, Wisconsin has by far the best offensive efficiency ratings of any of the four teams in Dallas. Wisconsin has also played the toughest overall schedule to this point as well. Wisconsin has one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation and this is very good shooting team everywhere on the floor.
This has not been a great Wisconsin defense, however, even with impressive showings against Baylor and Arizona, allowing just 115 points in those two games. Thirteen times this season Wisconsin allowed 70 or more points and while the Badgers don’t give the ball away on offense, they also have not created many extra opportunities with turnovers on the defensive end. Wisconsin is a very good defensive rebounding team and that will be the key matchup against Kentucky, the best offensive rebounding team in the nation statistically.
On defense, Wisconsin will force Kentucky into a half court offense, something that the Wildcats have struggled with at times. Kentucky is a low assist team that relies on individual plays and putbacks with the great rebounding frontcourt. The focus will be on Frank Kaminsky, who has been one of the best players in the tournament, but Sam Dekker will also play a vital role for the Badgers. Dekker has been hurt by having to play the 4 most of the season against bigger players but that could help to neutralize Julius Randle and the offensive rebounding for the Wildcats as Dekker can pull players away from the basket with his versatility.
Kaminsky and Dekker both could be potential first round NBA picks either this year or next year so the perceived talent gap for Kentucky is not as great as most likely believe. Kentucky will have a size edge on the perimeter against Wisconsin as the Harrison twins will tower over the Wisconsin guards but the excellent passing for the Badgers can help to neutralize that edge. Wisconsin won the 1941 national title and made a fluky run to the Final Four in 2000, so this is certainly the program with the least championship history as the moment will be big for this squad, including long time coach Bo Ryan making his first Final Four appearance.
Connecticut Huskies: Connecticut looked like they would be one-and-done most of the way against St. Joseph’s before forcing overtime and actually covering in the opener. The Huskies faced a tough path with wins over title contenders going against Villanova, Iowa State, and Michigan State, but they have had some good fortune as well. Georges Niang did not play for Iowa State and Villanova was perhaps seeded too high with the Big East looking rather weak at this point. The win over Michigan State came as a big surprise for many, but the Spartans had been an inconsistent team all season and the hot shooting the Spartans enjoyed early in the postseason was not going to continue. It was also a much worse Michigan State defense than anyone seems to realize.
While Connecticut has scored nearly 77 points per game in the tournament this is a team led by its defense. The Huskies were a top 10 team in two-point shot percentage on defense and Connecticut is not only one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation; they are a team that often has a free throw attempt edge as they manage fouls well defensively. Shabazz Napier is also a player that can take over games like no other perimeter player left in the field.
Connecticut shot over 93 percent from the line during the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games to hold on in two close games. Those games came in very comfortable environment at Madison Square Garden as the Huskies enjoyed a great venue edge to reach the Final Four despite being a #7 seed. Connecticut’s offense had plenty of rough games against some of the best defensive teams it has faced in AAC play like Louisville and Cincinnati and the Huskies will need to be able to hang in there in a slower paced physical game to succeed.
Connecticut does not have the strength and bulk that Florida has, but the Huskies are a very tall and deep team that can force Florida into being more of a jump shooting team. Outside of Scottie Wilbekin and Michael Frazier, the Gators don’t have many options away from the basket that can score efficiently. Wilbekin’s shooting numbers are also a lot worse for the season than most would expect as he has played great in the tournament. Outside shooting, turnovers, and free throw trips will likely decide the fate for the Huskies.
Kentucky Wildcats: The Wildcats were the preseason #1 team as the season started, sitting with just 5/1 odds to win the NCAA title (compared with 18/1 for Florida, 33/1 for Connecticut, and 50/1 for Wisconsin). By the seeding, it is a huge surprise that Kentucky is in the Final Four, but the path has not been as impressive as it sounds, beating three of last year’s final four teams. Wichita State was a deserving #1 seed, but the Shockers had not played high quality competition or battled in many close games. Louisville was a vastly overrated team based on the 2013 championship as this year’s team had no high end wins and Kentucky had already defeated them earlier in the season. Michigan was the best team in the Big Ten all season, but the Wolverines don’t play great defense and in a shooting match Kentucky was able to hit one more shot as part of an epic shooting day for the Wildcats that will be tough to replicate.
Kentucky’s success in Texas will depend on whether or not they can continue shooting as well as they have been. The Wildcats are a 33 percent three-point shooting team on the season but in the huge wins over Wichita State, Louisville, and Michigan, they shot over 44 percent. That includes making 7 of 11 three-point shots against Michigan including the game winning shot that broke a tie in the final seconds. Despite the next level talent and obvious athleticism for the Wildcats this is not a team that creates turnovers and gets a great deal of transition baskets. Those fast break opportunities are especially unlikely to happen against Wisconsin. The points-per-possession numbers for Kentucky have been off the charts so far in the tournament, and at this stage in a massive arena a decline in efficiency seems inevitable.
The offensive rebounding edge for Kentucky has not been as pronounced as it seems as Kentucky has averaged just over a three rebound edge per game on the offensive glass in the NCAA Tournament. Fouls could also play a big role against Wisconsin as the game will be expected to be a defensive grind. Kentucky will not likely have Willie Cauley-Stein, but Marcus Lee came out of nowhere to contribute against Michigan and there is depth in the front court for the Wildcats. How tight the game is called will be important as Kentucky could likely handle some early interior fouls better than Wisconsin could and if Kaminsky gets into early foul trouble it could be a long night for the Badgers.
Both Kentucky and Wisconsin have lost to some bad teams this season with the Wildcats losing to South Carolina just over a month ago and falling against Arkansas twice in the regular season. Wisconsin hit a January rut and lost to Indiana and Northwestern in a stretch with losses in five of six games. Both teams have delivered impressive close game wins so far in the tournament and it could take another great late moment to decide the finalist in a very intriguing national semifinal.