College Basketball Knowledge
Kentucky lost Polythress (ACL) for year during week; they trailed at the half against Columbia last game but are 10-0 with no wins by less than 10 points- they force turnovers 26% of time (#8). Wildcats are 3-2 last five vs North Carolina; home side won last five series games. Tar Heels lost last two visits here by total of 3 points- they're 2-2 vs top 50 teams.
First road game for 5-1 St Mary's team that lost to Boise State last game; Gaels have played #264 schedule; best win is over #85 New Mexico St. 8-2 Creighton is 2-2 vs top 100 teams; they needed double OT to survive South Dakota last game, after winning at Nebraska. WCC non-conference road dogs are 7-5 vs spread; Big East single digit home favorites are 7-3.
7-1 Utah is off rivalry win at BYU without Loveridge; their three top 100 games (2-1) were all decided by 4 or less points. Utes are making 41.2% from arc, have #8 eFG% in nation. Kansas won last three games by 5-6-5 points, all vs top 25 teams. Pac-12 road underdogs are 4-3 vs spread; Big X single digit home favorites are 5-4. KU's Traylor should return here.
Michigan lost last two games to NJIT/Eastern Michigan, bad losses; this is their first true road game, at 9-0 Arizona squad whose three top 100 wins are all by 4 or less points. Wildcats outscored Michigan 22-12 over last 7:19 to nip Wolverines 72-70 in Ann Arbor LY. Big 14 road dogs are 5-6 vs spread; Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 16-10.
Oklahoma State lost 73-68 to Memphis LY on neutral floor after leading by 10 at half; 7-1 Cowboys lost first true road game at South Carolina by 26 last Saturday- their only top 100 win was by over Tulsa by 15 on a neutral floor. 3-3 Memphis has very young guards; their best win was by 10 over #221 Indiana State-- they turn ball over 24.3% of the time.
Northern Iowa was up 17 at half at Denver Wednesday, won by 10, now goes to opposite extreme, facing pressing VCU squad that turns foes over 25.5% of time (#12). 9-0 Panthers play #344 tempo; VCU plays #42, so contrast in styles. Rams lost three of last five games, all against top 100 teams. A-14 home favorites are 8-6 vs spread; MVC road dogs are 7-7.
Florida State's leading scorer Thomas is academically ineligible, bad news for 4-4 Seminole squad that is 0-4 vs top 100 teams, with three losses by 6 or less points. FSU forces turnovers 21% of time, but makes just 20% from arc. Notre Dame lost 76-74 at FSU LY, losing in last 1:00. FSU hit 8-16 from arc in game they led by 13 late in first half.
First true road game for Cincinnati team that waxed Nebraska 74-59 LY at home, despite Huskers gong 9-20 from arc. Nebraska lost its last two games to Creighton/Incarnate Word, both at home; they're 0-2 vs teams in top 100- best win is over #108 Florida State. 6-1 Bearcats have played #309 schedule so far- they lost by 12 to Ole Miss, its only top 100 tilt.
8-2 Purdue is #331 team in experience thats played #338 schedule; this is Boilers' first true road game- best wins are over BYU/NC State. Purdue is forcing turnovers 21.9% of time. Vanderbilt is #348 in experience playing #308 schedule- they lost two of last three games, with both losses by 3 points. Commodores' only top 200 win was over #115 LaSalle by 13.
8-1 Gonzaga is 3-1 vs top 100 teams, losing by 3 in OT at Arizona; they won by 7 at /St John's in other road game. UCLA is #315 in experience, #293 in schedule; they were down 8 at half to Riverside in last game, are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, beating #90 San Diego of WCC by 7- they lost to Oklahoma/North Carolina on neutral floor in the Bahamas.
Murray State beat Evansville by 13-2 points last two years; Racers split first two road games, winning by 19 at Middle Tennessee, losing by 29 at Xavier. 7-1 Aces have four wins by 8 or less points, winning last game by 3 at Belmont. Aces are shooting 38.5% from arc, have #17 eFG% in country. MVC home favorites are 6-9 vs spread; OVC road dogs 17-15.
Home side won last four North Dakota-North Dakota State games, with UND losing by 26-21 in last two visits here. UND is 0-4 vs teams in top 100, with three losses by 12+ points- teams are shooting 58% inside arc against them. State jas new coach, young team- they lost last two games on road to teams ranked outside the top 200.
BYU won its last eleven games with Weber State, winning last five visits to Ogden by 18-4-30-6-10 points; Cougars lost rivalry game at home to Utah Wednesday- they won by 10 at Utah State in only true road game this season. Weber State doesn't sub much, turns ball over 24.1% of time as they appear to be bit down- its best win was over #212 Oral Roberts.
Armadillosports.com
College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Utah at Kansas
On Saturday, the #10-ranked Kansas Jayhawks (7-1, 5-3 ATS) host the #13-ranked Utah Utes (7-1, 5-2-1 ATS) at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. Kansas has reeled off six consecutive wins since their loss to #1 Kentucky taking down Michigan State, Georgetown the past two. Utah also comes into the contest on a 6-0 streak since their early loss to #18 San Diego State defeating Wichita State, BYU the past two on the hardwood. Offense has been much more difficult for Jayhawks this season as they average 70.1 points/game on 41.4 % shooting. Utah is a higher scoring team averaging 78.6 points/game, while shooting the tenth-best percentage in the country at 51.6%. Defensively, Jayhawks allow 63.6 PPG on 40.2% shooting while Utes enter limiting opponents to 57.4 points/game on 35.5% from the field. Utah also excels in guarding the 3-point line, limiting foes to 33.8% from beyond the arc. Kansas struggling a times this season to initiate offense, Utah solid defensively wouldn't surprise Utes pull off the massive road upset. Consider taking the expect 5 point spot knowing Utes have a sparkling 12-2 stretch as underdogs of 6 or less, have cashed 9-12 tickets away from Salt Lake City and are on a profitable 21-7-2 ATS stretch in non-conference games.
Michigan at Arizona
The Wildcats off an easy 87-56 victory over Utah Valley cashing as -27 point favorite put a season opening 9-0 (5-4 ATS) streak and the nations fifth-longest home stretch (27-0 SU, 17-9 ATS) on the line when they host Michigan Wolverines at McKale Center in Tucson Saturday afternoon. Wolverines with a slew of new players dotting the roster losing two straight including a shameful loss to then 2-5 NJT Highlanders won't give Wildcats much resistance. Expect both Wildcat streaks to be extended as they move to 5-0 ATS vs Big Ten opponents while Wolverines fall to 2-7-1 ATS away from Ann Arbor in December non-conference games.
Gonzaga at UCLA
The Bruins returning only three players that had any significant minutes last season face a huge test when Gonzaga pays a visit to Pauley Pavilion Saturday night. The Zags are loaded this season thanks to a strong foundation of returning players including arguably the best pair of shooters in college basketball in Kevin Pangos nailing 48.4% from the field, 40.0% from long range with Gary Bell Jr. dropping 45.0% of his shots, 43.9% from outside. Zags with five players dropping double digits helping the team net 84.4 points/game the Bruins current 8-0 (4-4 ATS) streak on home court is at risk. However, Bruins pretty solid on the defensive end (69.4 PPG) you do bet Zags at some risk as they're 2-6 ATS away from home scoring =< 70.0 points and just 2-9 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
North Carolina at Kentucky
Kentucky (10-0 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) has been a double-digit favorite in nine of its 10 games to date. The Wildcats have won by double-digit margins in every game, including a 72-40 victory over Kansas as seven-point 'chalk' on a neutral court.
John Calipari's team took a significant hit Thursday when junior slasher Alex Poythress tore his ACL and was lost for the rest of the season. Poythress was averaging 5.5 points and 3.3 rebounds per game.
Kentucky has failed to cover the number in three of its last four games. UK came up just shy in a 58-38 win over Providence as a 21-point favorite. Likewise, a 63-51 triumph over Texas as a 12.5-point home 'chalk' wasn't quite enough for its betting supporters. As for Wednesday night, the Wildcats never threatened to take the cash in a 56-46 win over Columbia as 25.5-point home favorites. The Lions raced out to an 11-0 lead and never trailed in the first half, leading by a bucket at intermission. But UK's work on the offensive boards ended up being too much for Columbia. Aaron Harrison scored a team-high 14 points, while Willie Cauley-Stein produced 10 points and 10 rebounds.
North Carolina (6-2 SU, 5-3ATS) is playing its first true road game of the season here. Roy Williams' team bounced back from a surprising 60-55 home loss to Iowa last week by blasting East Carolina by a 108-64 count this past Sunday. Brice Johnson was the catalyst against the Pirates, finishing with 19 points and a career-high 17 rebounds. J.P. Tokoto added 19 points and dished out eight assists against ECU.
UNC is led by Marcus Paige, who is averaging a team-best 14.0 points per game. The junior point guard has a 27/13 assists-to-turnovers ratio, but he is making only 35.5 percent of his shots from the field and 34.0 percent from long distance. Paige has scored in double figures in six of UNC's eight games.
UNC won two of three games during Thanksgiving holidays at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. After dropping a 74-66 decision to Butler, the Tar Heels bounced back with wins over UCLA (78-56) and Florida (75-64).
UK's Andrew Harrison will be looking to respond from an awful performance Wednesday vs. Columbia. He was an atrocious 1-of-12 from the field, missing all five attempts from 3-point range.
When these schools met in Chapel Hill last year, UNC captured an 82-77 win behind 23 points from Paige. The Tar Heels covered the spread as three-point home favorites. They have beaten UK outright in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, compiling a 9-1 spread record.
The 'under' is 9-1 overall in UK games thanks to the nation's top-ranked scoring defense. The 'Cats are giving up just 45.8 points per game.
Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for UNC.
CBS will have the telecast at noon Eastern.
Michigan at Arizona
Michigan (6-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) has been one of the country's biggest disappointments, unfathomably dropping back-to-back home games to Eastern Michigan and New Jersey Institute of Technology. The Wolverines have failed to cover the number in four straight lined games.
Michigan is led by junior guard Caris LeVert, who is averaging team-highs in scoring (17.7 PPG), rebounds (5.4 RPG), assists (4.1 APG), field-goal percentage (45.3%) and steals (2.2 SPG). However, LeVert made just 4-of-12 from the field and had more turnovers (three) than assists (two) in Tuesday's loss to the Eagles.
Arizona (9-0 SU, 4-5 ATS) has four quality wins on its resume, including scalps of Gonzaga, San Diego State, Kansas State and Missouri. Mark Few's Bulldogs gave the Wildcats a tough test last Saturday night, but Sean Miller's squad was able to capture a 66-63 win in overtime. Gonzaga took the cash, however, as 4.5-point underdogs. Brandon Ashley led four Arizona players in double figures with 14 points.
Arizona is coming off of Tuesday's 87-56 win over Utah Valley as a 27-point home favorite. Stanley Johnson paced the winners with 14 points, seven rebounds, three assists, three steals and one blocked shot. Dusan Ristic came off the bench to contribute 13 points and seven boards in just 18 minutes of playing time. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson chipped in with 12 points and 10 boards.
John Beilein's squad has a pair of quality wins over Syracuse and Oregon. The victory over the Ducks came on a neutral floor.
This will be Michigan's second underdog situation of the season. The Wolverines lost a 60-55 decision to Villanova as 4.5-point 'dogs.
Michigan has watched the 'under' go 4-2 overall.
The 'under' is 5-4 overall for 'Zona, 3-3 in its home games.
Tip-off is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Gonzaga at UCLA
Few might have his best team at Gonzaga (8-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) and that's a bold statement because the Bulldogs have gone to the NCAA Tournament in every one of his 14 previous seasons. However, the Bulldogs haven't advanced past the Sweet 16 since Dan Monson got them there (with a little help from Casey Calvary's last-second putback against my Gators) in 1999 when they lost to eventual champ UConn at the West Region finals in Phoenix.
Gonzaga is led by senior guards Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. Those veterans are loving the arrival of Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer, who is averaging a team-high 16.4 PPG. Domantas Sabonis, the freshman son of Arvydas, has added size and plenty of game to the roster. Sabonis is averaging 11.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. (Can you imagine how nasty Arvydas would've been in college and the NBA if he had landed in the US as a freshman in college before his knees were shot?!)
Pangos is one of the country's best pure shooters. He's averaging 10.4 PPG, making 48.4 percent of his shots from the field. Pangos is shooting at a 40.6 percent clip from deep and is burying 86.4 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe. He has a stellar 49/11 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
Wiltjer isn't the only transfer making an impact for the 'Zags. USC transfer Byron Wesley is averaging 12.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per contest.
UCLA (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS) is No. 113 in the RPI with only one victory over an RPI Top-100 foe. The Bruins beat Long Beach State (#79) 77-63 as 10-point home favorites on Nov. 23.
Since a pair of losses to UNC (76-58) and Oklahoma (75-65) at the Battle 4 Atlantis, Steve Alford's club has won four in a row. UCLA is off a 77-66 win over UC-Riverside as a 17-point home 'chalk.' Norman Powell scored a team-high 20 points, while Tony Parker and Kevon Looney produced double-doubles. Parker had 16 points and 16 rebounds, while Looney went for 12 points and 11 boards. Bryce Alford finished with 16 points and eight assists.
Powell is averaging a team-high 17.9 PPG. Alford, the sophomore who is the head coach's son, is averaging 17.5 points and 7.1 assists per game.
Gonzaga owns three quality wins over SMU, Georgia and St. John's.
Totals have been an overall wash for Gonzaga (3-3) with the 'under' cashing in its lone road assignment.
The 'over' is 5-4 overall for UCLA, cashing in three of its last four games. The Bruins have seen the 'over' go 4-2 in its home games at Pauley Pavilion.
ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
Saturday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
South Carolina Upstate Spartans at (20) Maryland Terrapins
USC Upstate leads the Atlantic Sun in steals per game (10.8) and is allowing 55.2 points and 36.4 percent shooting – both second in the league through Wednesday.
Maryland's Evan Smotrycz, who has played only twice this season after averaging 11 points in 2013-14, missed the last three games and is day-to-day with a foot injury.
(11) Wichita State Shockers at Detroit Titans
The Shockers are 127-25 (83.5 percent), the best winning percentage of any Division I team, since the start of the 2010-11 season.
Detroit ranks in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin (13th), steals per game (23rd) and free throw percentage (25th).
(18) North Carolina Tar Heels at (1) Kentucky Wildcats
North Carolina Marcus Paige leads the team with 14 points per game but is just 10-of-32 from the field - 4-of-19 from long range - over the last three contests.
The Wildcats continue to struggle from 3-point range, as they went 2-of-17 against the Lions to drop to 27.7 percent on the season.
Morehead State Eagles at (12) Ohio State Buckeyes
Morehead State has led the Ohio Valley Conference in rebounding margin six straight seasons (2008-14), paced the league in rebounds five of the last six years and had the conference’s top individual four of the past six seasons.
The Buckeyes have been dominant at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 32 points per game while winning by 50 plus points twice.
(15) Oklahoma Sooners at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Oklahoma’s defense has been stout all season, holding opponents to 61.3 points per game on .362 field goal and .273 3-point shooting.
Tulsa's James Woodard has scored in double figures in 37 of his last 43 games but finished with just six points in the loss to Southeastern Oklahoma State.
Nicholls State Colonels at (6) Wisconsin Badgers
Traveling has not been kind to the Colonel. Nicholls State has lost all four games on the road this season and have been outscored by 103 points and outrebounded by 71 in those games.
Wisconsin is 199-22 (.900) at the Kohl Center under Bo Ryan, owning the 4th-highest home win percentage in that span (since 2001-02). That includes a mark of 102-8 (.927) in nonconference games at the Kohl Center.
(14) Utah Utes at (10) Kansas Jayhawks
The Utes can thank a renewed defensive focus for their improvement this season. Utah is leading the Pac-12 in both scoring defense (57.4 ppg) and rebound margin (+10.5).
Kansas are ranked in the top 10, but they are far from perfect. “We’re not a good passing team at all,” Jayhawks coach Bill Self told reporters. “We don’t make the game easier for our teammates.”
Michigan Wolverines at (3) Arizona Wildcats
Michigan has recorded 16 assists and 21 turnovers while averaging 26.5 rebounds during their past two games, where they got upset twice.
The Wildcats have allowed fewer than 60 points on five occasions and have racked up 78 steals compared to the opponent’s 34.
(24) Nothern Iowa Panthers at VCU Rams
Seth Tuttle has scored in double figures every game this season and has shot at least 50 percent from the field in eight of the Panthers' nine contests.
VCU's trademark defense has been a surprising weakness on the young season, as the Rams are allowing 70.3 points - 263rd in the nation.
Oregon Ducks at (25) Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois will be the third ranked team the Ducks have played in nine games this season. The Ducks lost both of those games straight up and against the spread.
As a team the Ducks have 47 blocked shots on the season, averaging 5.9 blocks per game to rank third in the Pac-12.
Texas State Bobcats at (9) Texas Longhorns
The Bobcats surge this season can be thanks to their ability to create turnovers. Texas State is causing an average of 19.6 turnovers per game, while taking the ball away on 25.1 percent of opponents possessions.
The Longhorns have outrebounded their opponents in seven of their first eight games and sport a +13.5 rebound margin entering Saturday's contest.
(8) Gonzaga Bulldogs at UCLA Bruins
The Bulldogs have outscored their opponents 379-239 in the first half this season, an average of 15 points per game.
Freshman Kevon Looney has been dominated this season. The Bruins's stud ranks sixth in the nation in rebounding while leading all freshman in with seven double-doubles.
College Basketball Betting Guide
By: Ryan Mercier
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – Signifying the end of the college football regular season is the traditional matchup between Army and Navy this Saturday. That means it's also time for bettors to shift some of their focus to college basketball. It should be an easy transition with a great tilt tipping off the day as No. 21 North Carolina will take on No. 1 Kentucky at Rupp Arena (12 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Line: Kentucky -12
Ten games in, the undefeated talk has already begun for John Calipari's squad. In Vegas, however, the Wildcats are batting .500 with a 5-5 mark ATS.
The bigger story for bettors is Kentucky's defense. UK is first in the entire country in defensive field-goal percentage at 28.7. That is a huge reason why the Wildcats are 9-1 to the UNDER this season.
Keep in mind for the future, Kentucky has not played a true road game yet. This will be its 10th home contest already.
Speaking of a first true road game, this will be UNC's first of the season. The Tar Heels are battle-tested, though, having played two top-25 teams and four neutral-site games.
While North Carolina has been more profitable at 5-3 ATS, they have underachieved as illustrated by two outright losses as favorites this season. This will be its first test as a dog.
The big news for the Wildcats is that forward Alex Poythress tore his ACL in practice and will be out for the season. Poythress was logging over 20 minutes per game.
Trends: The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Kentucky's last 27 home games....North Carolina is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
The Linemakers' lean: It‘s easy to be gun shy about North Carolina in this spot. Kentucky, after all, has been built up as unbeatable, and the Tar Heels lost at home to Iowa 10 days ago. But this is way too many points to give a team that is closer to Kentucky‘s level than most think. Sure, Kentucky wiped out Kansas (72-40 as a 7-point favorite on a neutral court), but the spread is the equalizer and Kentucky has covered only five of its 10 wins and is 1-3 ATS in its last four. Look for a low-scoring defensive game, with UNC hanging around. The play is on Carolina +12.
Utah vs. Kansas
The Line: Kansas -4
One of the most intriguing games of the weekend will be No. 13 Utah against No. 10 Kansas at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO.
The Utes are on fire against the number, 5-1 ATS in their last six. An overtime win over Wichita State was the only loss and Utah was up by 11 with about five minutes to go as a 3-point favorite. Against the two best teams Utah has seen, San Diego State and Wichita, the Utes are 1-1 straight-up and 0-1-1 ATS.
On paper, Utah has clear advantages on both offense and defense. The Utes are one of the most efficient teams in the nation, shooting 51.6-percent and hold teams to 35.8-percent shooting.
On the other hand, the only blemish KU has this season is losing to Kentucky, and the Jayhawks are also 5-1 ATS in their last six. The talent is there, Bill Self is a good coach, and Kansas is winning. However, it still looks like they are trying to find an identity. The Jayhawks rebound well, but so do the Utes.
Trends: The UNDER is 14-4 in Utah's last 18 neutral-site games, but the OVER is 4-1 in its last five overall....Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.
The Linemakers' lean: Utah may feel like the right side because Kansas looks as though their struggling mightily at times, but the Jayhawks' talent has prevailed every game since getting routed by Kentucky. Both teams are on a roll, each winning six straight games (5-1 ATS), but Utah’s run has been more impressive, beating Wichita State last week and then winning at BYU Wednesday. The Utes shoot 51 percent from the field while Kansas clanks in at 41 percent. We expect this game to come down to the wire, but don't necessarily see any value on the dog.
Gonzaga at UCLA
The Line: Gonzaga -4.5
Stay up late and watch what looks to be a nice west coast battle between No. 9 Gonzaga (8-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) and UCLA (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS).
The Bulldogs already got their first true road game out of the way in Tucson against Arizona -- it's hard to find a tougher test than that. Gonzaga was ahead late but lost in OT 66-63 as a 4.5-point underdog.
In this spot the Zags are a road favorite and for good reason. They are one of the highest-scoring teams in the country at 84.4 points per game but more importantly, they get it done efficiently. Gonzaga is top-10 in the nation in both assists and field-goal percentage.
UCLA can fill it up, too. The Bruins score 81.5 points per game and and rack up the assists as well. While it appears they have the rebounding edge over Gonzaga, the Bruins get more chances with a shooting clip of 46.3-percent.
Thus far, the Bruins beat the bad teams and struggle with better competition, losing by double-digits in their first two chances as a small underdog.
Trends: The UNDER is 17-6 in Gonzaga's last 23 road games and 9-4 in UCLA's last 13 home games.
One more lean from The Linemakers:
Murray State at Evansville (-7.5). The Evansville Purple Aces come off a huge win at Belmont Tuesday night, 65-62 as 5.5-point underdogs, which kept their record against-the-spread nearly perfect on the season at 6-0-1. It’s obvious this team is much better than expected, and the ratings haven’t quite caught up with them. D.J. Balentine has been lighting it up nightly at 20.5 ppg, and as a team Evansville is shooting 53.8 percent and averaging 18.8 assists. They should beat Murray State by 10-points or more, so laying -7.5 sounds good to us.