College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 16

College Hoops Newsletter
By Brandon Shively

South Florida @ Memphis---Memphis is 5-0 ATS the last five meetings winning by 27, 22, 15, 13, and 6 points. The 27 points was the most recent win so if you see how the margin of victory has been increasing every meeting, a win by 30 is in store today. South Florida only averages 58 ppg on the road, shooting only 38.5%. Memphis plays 'monkey defense' at home only allowing 64 ppg on 35.8%. *Memphis by 22*

Cincinnati @ Temple----I like this spot for the Bearcats as they catch Temple in a same season revenger after Temple stunned Cincinnati 70-77 as an 11.5 point dog. After that game, HC Cronin fired up his team and they blew out Tulsa by 19 points then took an undefeated SMU team down to the wire losing by two points. The Bearcats are the more talented team on offense and defense. They have more depth down low in the paint and this is where this game can be won. Temple coming off an overtime loss at Memphis earlier in the week, this is not the best spot for them. *Cincinnati by 6*

Ohio State @ Maryland---Do you think Maryland remembers the 80-56 drumming they took last year against Ohio State? You better believe they remember. I like this spot for Maryland coming off the loss against Michigan where Melo Trimble had his worst game of the season. Trimble will be more assertive. Sulaimon and Layman will hit their threes. Carter and Stone down low...Well, it's just too much for an Ohio State team that is in rebuilding mode this season. *Maryland by 16*

Villanova @ Georgetown---The home team is 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings. Georgetown beat Villanova last year at home, 78-58, in a similar spot and matchup. Georgetown is a team that has played to their level of competition this season. For instance, the Hoyas are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. They lost by two points to Duke on a neutral and by four points at Maryland. While Georgetown took losses against Monmouth and Radford, both of these teams have proven to be better than expected. Fast forward to the current, and the Hoyas have won five of their last six games and have started Big East play at 4-1. This game has big implications. It's a game that Georgetown needs to put on their tournament resume. Villanova has played sluggish the last two games. They were trailing in the 2nd half against Butler and also trailing at the half against Marquette on Wednesday night. I like Georgetown for the 1st half and for the game here. *Georgetown by 3*

Missouri @ South Carolina----Seven factors for this game....1) Missouri sucks.....2) Missouri just got informed they are banned from the postseason on Thursday. Not that they were going to make it to the postseason, but I can't see any motivation here. ...3) South Carolina is coming off their first loss of the season....4) South Carolina is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games....5) Missouri has one senior on their roster...6) South Carolina is an upperclassmen team. 7) Head Coach Frank Martin is the better coach in this game. I love watching his blood vessels look like they are about to bust in his head when he is yelling at his kids on the sidelines. After losing by 23 points at Alabama on Wednesday, I expect the Gamecocks to mash the gas here...BLOWOUT *South Carolina by 18*

Texas AM @ Georgia----Georgia is 4-0 SU and ATS in the four previous meetings since Texas AM joined the SEC. The UNDER is also 4-0 with final scores of 98, 101, 112, and 115 points. However, each meeting has produced more points and Texas AM has their best team in quite a while. Both of the Aggies road wins in the SEC have been come-from-behind victories winning by one point at Mississippi State and by four at Tennessee. Georgia is 3-0 ATS their last three games and I expect another close, low scoring game here. *Under 134.5 or less*

TCU @ Kansas---For whatever reason, TCU went 3-0 ATS Kansas last year losing by 3, 5, and 9 points. However, Kansas is much better this season and TCU has only scored 48 and 54 points in their two road games in BIG 12 Play, losing by 28 and 21 points. Kansas has put up 100+ points in both of their BIG 12 home games this season. The Jayhawks are off a loss which I predicted earlier this week at West Virginia. This is a kill spot for them. *Kansas by 40*

Miami Florida @ Clemson---Big Kudos for Clemson for beating both Louisville and Duke straight up as a homedog in their last two games. This is the first time since 1988 they have beaten ranked teams in consecutive games. All three Clemson wins against Top 10 teams over the last 10 seasons have come against Duke. They are 0-17 SU against all other top-10 opponents over that span. This sets the stage for today's game as they play #9 ranked Miami Florida. The Hurricanes have been a covering machine, but are off a loss at Virginia. It was a close game throughout but the situation favored the Cavaliers much more and they ended up winning by eight points. We have value in this game. The odds makers have adjusted now after Clemson has started off 4-1 in the ACC and off these two big wins. What I know is that BIG WINS = BIG LETDOWNS. I also know that Miami is the much better shooting team on the season, shooting 49% from the floor and scoring 81 ppg compared to only 69 ppg for Clemson. Miami has held Clemson to 58 or fewer points in the last four meetings. Miami is only giving up 57.8 ppg over their last five games. Look for Miami to pull away in the 2nd half and cruise to a cover. *Miami Florida by 7*

Oakland @ Detroit---OVER, OVER, OVER. Two teams here that push the pace and run and gun. Oakland is scoring 85.6 ppg and Detroit scoring 81.5 ppg. Oakland's road games are averaging 164 points. Detroit's home games are averaging 165 points. This total is higher but it is warranted as both teams fit each other's style of play. Oakland is 14th while Detroit is 11th in the nation in terms of pace of play. Both teams have played Youngstown State which is another run and gun team. The final scores in these two games were 198 points and 183 points. The OVER is 10-2 in Oakland's last 12 road games and the OVER is 5-1 in Detroit's last six home games. First one to 90 wins this game. I don't care who wins personally, as long as it goes over. *OVER 177 or less*

Kentucky @ Auburn---Kentucky has put up 91 and 110 against Auburn the last two years. The 91 came in the finals of the SEC Tourney last season. It was Auburn's 4th game in four days and one of their big men had gotten injured. Also, Kentucky is not as good this season. They don't have the big men down low to scare anybody. Tyler Ullis can't shoot the three ball and much of their offense is on the two freshmen of Briscoe and Murray. Auburn has one of the best scorers in the SEC in Kareem Canty. Tyler Harris who is Orlando Magic Tobias Harris lil brother is capable of putting up a double double consistently. Bruce Pearl is going to get his team an upset this season. This might be it. Auburn has started off SEC play 1-3 and they need a win or at least a cover bad as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games. Kentucky has road losses this season at UCLA and at Ohio State and at LSU. Take the points with Auburn. *Auburn by 1*

West Virginia @ Oklahoma----The Mountaineers just beat Kansas. I had West Virginia in that game. The win came on their home court. Kudos to them. Now for them to travel to Oklahoma in a meeting where the home team has won the last five meetings, I can't see another upset here. If West Virginia wins this game, they would have beaten the #1 and #2 teams in the same week. Talk about pressure. While it would be a 'helluva' feat, I don't see it happening. Two words...Buddy Hield....Oklahoma is 4-0 SU and ATS the last four meetings. They won last year here by 19 points laying 5.5. In West Virginia's two road games in conference play, they had to rally to beat a bad TCU team and had to go into overtime to beat Kansas State. They are 0-2 ATS on the road in conference play. *Oklahoma by 9*

Iowa State @ Kansas State----Iowa State is 1-3 SU their last four games and coming off an overtime loss at Texas. They are 0-2 SU on the road in conference play. Kansas State is 5-0 ATS their last five games, mainly because of their defense. This series has seen its fair of close games in the past. Kansas State is 3-0 SU in the last three home matchups. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS the last six meetings overall. The last eight meetings have been decided by single digits. *Kansas State by 3*

Wofford @ Mercer---Two common opponents this season are Citadel and Samford. Mercer beat Citadel by 11 while Wofford won by 3. Mercer beat Samford by 19 while Wofford won by 5. I have watched this Mercer team play and they play defense and have a nice blend of guards with big men down low. Wofford is on the decline from last season and it looks like Mercer will be challenging for the conference title. *Mercer by 12*

Alabama @ Vanderbilt---Alabama just knocked off South Carolina who was unbeaten on the season. I've watched the Tide play and they are not good. South Carolina just had a terrible game as they were overdue for a loss. After three consecutive losses, Vanderbilt rebounded with a win and cover against Auburn this week. I wanted to release Vanderbilt as a premium pick, and am kicking myself in the ass for passing on them. I'm not going to pass today, especially with the favorable spot. Alabama is only averaging 55.8 ppg on the road. Vanderbilt has a stingy defense holding teams to 37% shooting from the floor with seven footers Jones and Kornet. *Vanderbilt by 17*

Florida @ Ole Miss---The underdog is 11-1 ATS the last 12 meetings. I cashed in last season with Ole Miss +5 as they beat Florida head up, 62-61. The last four meetings have been decided by 1, 1, 3, and 4 points. I don't think that Florida should be the road favorite here, but a win by the Gators would not surprise me. Ole Miss has not been impressive in conference play. They barely beat Georgia on their home court by one point. The Gators have been playing defense and I like a team that I know that is going to buckle down on the defensive side of the ball. The Gators are only allowing 60 ppg on 39% shooting. Devon Walker did not play last game for Florida and they still almost beat Texas AM who is undefeated at home, losing by three points. Walker is listed as probable and I like the Gators who are the more well-rounded team that plays team ball while Ole Miss is a one man show depending on Stefan Moody that takes 28% of the team's shots. Get him in foul trouble and they don't have a chance. *Florida by 4*

IPFW @ Omaha---This is going to be a fade on IPFW primarily based on their leading scorer, Mo Evans, being ruled ineligible for the rest of the season. Evans was averaging 17 ppg with a 2:1 turnover to assist ratio and now Max Landis will not be as effective on the perimeter. IPFW just lost on the road by 16 at South Dakota State. Another double digit loss here would not surprise me. *Omaha by 9*

Austin Peay @ Belmont----I live in Nashville and am familiar with both teams. Belmont will win this game by 18+ points, no question. They have scored 89 and 93 points the last two seasons against Austin Peay. This is a run and gun team that has shooters all over the court. Austin Peay is made up off some kids that got no offers to play anywhere else in college, so they landed here. This basketball program is terrible. Belmont has a proud basketball tradition. *Belmont by 21*

Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

NOTRE DAME (11-5, 2-2 ACC) at DUKE (14-3, 3-1 ACC)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -8.5, 154.5

No. 9 Duke looks to bounce back from Wednesday's loss when it hosts an up-and-down Notre Dame team on Saturday afternoon in Durham.

The Fighting Irish (11-5 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) have alternated wins and losses in the past five games, and secured a 72-64 home victory versus 8-point underdog Georgia Tech on Wednesday, resulting in an ATS push.

The Blue Devils (14-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 68-63 loss at 7.5-point underdog Clemson on Wednesday, which ended their five-game win streak. Notre Dame is playing only its second game as an underdog all season, with the first such contest being a 77-66 defeat at 9-point favorite Virginia on Jan. 2.

That was the only true road loss this season for the Irish, who are 2-1 (SU and ATS) on the road with wins at Illinois on Dec. 2 and at Boston College on Jan. 7, when they shot a blistering 62% FG and 65% threes.

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Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season, going 6-2-1 ATS in Durham with a +27.0 PPG margin. These teams have met just four times as ACC combatants, with the Irish winning three of those matchups (SU and ATS) including the last one on March 13, 2015 when Notre Dame rolled to a 74-64 win in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

But in the lone meeting at Cameron Indoor Stadium one month earlier (Feb. 7, 2015), the Blue Devils won a 90-60 blowout. The key injury in this game is Duke F Amile Jefferson, who remains out indefinitely with an injured foot.

Notre Dame's offense has been strong this season with 78.2 PPG (80th in D-I) on a blistering 49.9% FG (8th in nation) and 39.1% threes (26th in D-I). Ball protection has been key, as the Irish are committing only 9.5 turnovers per game (4th in nation), and they are also a solid rebounding team with a +4.6 RPG margin this season (69th in D-I).

Five Notre Dame players average double-figure points, led by G Demetrius Jackson (17.1 PPG, 5.4 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG), who makes shots on impressive clips of 49% FG, 40% threes and 75% FT. Jackson has pumped in 17+ points and 6+ assists in four straight games (19.8 PPG, 7.3 APG), and was a big reason his team beat Duke last March with 15 points (6-of-11 FG), five assists and three steals.

F Zach Auguste (13.9 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG) rarely takes a bad shot, as evidenced by his 56% FG rate this season. Auguste is coming off a season-high 24 points (10-of-13 FG) with nine boards in Wednesday's win over Georgia Tech, which was one rebound shy of his 10th double-double this season. Auguste got himself in foul trouble in the last meeting with Duke, but still managed to tally eight points, six rebounds and two blocks in 25 minutes before fouling out.

The other three big scorers for this school are G Steve Vasturia (11.9 PPG, 3.1 APG, 3.0 RPG), F V.J. Beachem (11.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Bonzie Colson (11.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG). The junior Vasturia did not shoot well on Wednesday (6 points on 3-of-9 FG), but that followed a four-game stretch of 13+ points for each contest on an impressive 64% FG (23-of-36).

The sharp-shooting junior Beachem knocks down 45% threes this season, while the 6-foot-5 Colson shoots 57% from the floor.

Colson had a monster game in last year's ACC Semifinals, when he came off the bench to score 17 points (5-of-9 FG, 7-of-8 FT) with five rebounds. Defensively, this team has a tough assignment with the Blue Devils, but this is a disciplined bunch that commits only 15.0 fouls per game (4th-fewest in nation) and still blocks 4.3 shots per game (94th in D-I).

But due largely to the lack of forced turnovers (9.8 TOPG, 340th in nation), the team is allowing a pedestrian 68.3 PPG (114th in D-I) on 42.3% FG (146th in nation) and a brutal 38.0% threes (313th in D-I). That doesn't bode well against a Saturday opponent that can light teams up from long distance.

Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging a collective 86.6 PPG (5th in nation) on 48.1% FG (33rd in D-I) and 38.7% threes (30th in nation). The team is a decent foul-shooting squad at 72% FT (71st in D-I), and really helps itself out by ranking eighth in the nation in made free throws (329) and 13th in free-throw attempts (455).

The Blue Devils are a quality rebounding team with a +4.5 RPG margin (75th in D-I), and they don't hurt themselves with turnovers either (10.2 TOPG, 13th in nation). This offense needs to be super efficient, because defense is not a strong suit with 69.3 PPG allowed (139th in D-I) on 42.9% FG (167th in nation) and 34.5% threes (205th in D-I).

Five different players average at least 10 points per game for Duke, led by G Grayson Allen (20.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (16.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.6 BPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 16 points in six straight games (20.7 PPG) and made 7-of-9 shots at Clemson on Wednesday. The 6-foot-9 Ingram has not yet hit that freshman wall with 10 straight games of 14+ points, where he's averaged a whopping 20.2 PPG.

The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are G Matt Jones (13.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.2 SPG) and freshman F/G Luke Kennard (11.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG). While Jones prefers to stroke from long range (42% threes), Kennard loves driving to the hole and getting to the foul line, where he is almost automatic at 93% FT (55-of-59).

Jones was a non-factor in the loss to Notre Dame last season, when he scored only four points on 1-of-4 FG with one rebound, one steal and zero assists in 28 minutes.

WEST VIRGINIA (15-1, 4-0 Big 12) at OKLAHOMA (14-1, 3-1 Big 12)

Sportsbook.ag LineLine: Oklahoma -6.5, 157.5

No. 11 West Virginia tries to knock off the country's top-two teams in the same week when it visits No. 2 Oklahoma on Saturday.

The Mountaineers (8-5 ATS) are still riding high after Tuesday's 74-63 win over No. 1 Kansas, which gave them eight straight wins, but are facing a Sooners team (7-6 ATS) whose only SU loss all season came in triple overtime at Kansas on Jan. 4.

Since that cruel defeat, they have won two straight games over Kansas State and Oklahoma State, but failed to cover the spread for either contest.

These teams have split the past four meetings with the home team winning and covering each time. After West Virginia coasted to an 86-65 win last Jan. 13, Oklahoma returned the favor three weeks later with a 71-52 trouncing in Norman.

The Mountaineers have scored 90.0 PPG in their three true road games this season, all SU wins, but are just 1-2 ATS in these contests. They are also destroying teams when playing on at least three days' rest at 8-0 SU (4-2 ATS) with a beefy +30.9 PPG margin.

However, the Sooners are crushing teams by 21.5 PPG at home, where they are 8-0 SU, but are only 3-3 ATS at Lloyd Noble Center. While they haven't lost yet as a favorite this season (11-0 SU), they are just 5-6 ATS when giving points.

West Virginia has excelled in many facets this season with 85.3 PPG (10th in D-I) on 47.0% FG (54th in nation), but this is not a good outside shooting team (31.3% threes, 295th in D-I) and it doesn't cash in from the foul line either (66.3% FT, 264th in nation).

However, the Mountaineers are always attacking the glass with a +11.2 RPG margin (7th in nation) and 17.2 offensive RPG (2nd in D-I), and generate a big chunk of their offense from a heavy pressing defense nicknamed "Press Virginia.” It leads the nation in both steals (11.4 SPG) and forced turnovers (20.9 TOPG).

The team allows only 63.4 PPG (22nd in D-I) on 41.7% FG (118th in nation), and limits opponents to a mere 27.3% threes (6th in D-I). The offense is very balanced with five players averaging at least nine points per game, but nobody is scoring more than 15 per contest.

F Devin Williams (14.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG) is the go-to scorer with 53% FG and 74% FT, and has tallied at least 12 points and six boards in each of his past three games (14.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG). Williams didn't play in Norman last season, but he controlled the paint in the home win over the Sooners with a double-double (14 points and 11 rebounds).

Senior G Jaysean Paige (13.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG) is shooting 51% FG and 39% threes this season, and was the hero on Tuesday with 26 points (6-of-13 FG, 14-of-17 FT), five steals and four rebounds in the win over No. 1 Kansas. Lightning-quick guards Jevon Carter (12.6 PPG, 3.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) and Daxter Miles Jr. (11.5 PPG, 2.1 SPG) are both outstanding at taking the ball away, but Carter is a much better shooter (39% threes) from long range than Miles (28% threes).

Carter dropped 18 points (4-of-6 threes) off the bench in the home win versus Oklahoma last season, but was held to five points in the loss in Norman. F Jonathan Holton (9.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG) provides more muscle down low, with at least eight boards on nine separate occasions this year. Holton also pulled down 14 rebounds (5 offensive) in only 38 minutes in the series with the Sooners last season.

Oklahoma has some similarities to its Saturday opponent, as the team averages a hefty 87.3 PPG (3rd in D-I) on 47.9% FG (37th in nation), but unlike the Mountaineers, the Sooners drain an impressive 46.1% threes (2nd in D-I).

They also crash the boards with ferocity, as they lead the nation in defensive rebounds (32.4 per game) and hold a +7.0 RPG margin (30th in D-I). Although the defense allows a pedestrian 71.1 PPG (175th in nation), it does so on low shooting rates of 38.3% FG (19th in D-I) and 30.6% threes (31st in nation). Oklahoma is tough in the paint with 5.9 blocks per game (10th in D-I), but the school forces only 11.4 turnovers per game (305th in nation).

The Sooners’ offense revolves around superstar G Buddy Hield, who is averaging 26.6 PPG (2nd in nation) with 5.7 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG. He shoots an eye-popping 52% threes (4th in D-I) and 90% FT (13th in nation), and netted 21 points in both meetings with West Virginia last season on 14-of-26 FG (54%) and 8-of-14 threes, while also adding 13 rebounds.

Amazingly, Hield is not even the best long-range shooter on his team, as G Jordan Woodard (15.3 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.7 RPG) is making 55% threes (3rd in D-I) and 85% FT, which ranks third-best in the Big 12 Conference. Woodard was a non-factor in the loss at Morgantown last season (6 points, 3 assists in 28 minutes), but against WVU in Norman, he tallied 12 points (3-of-5 FG, 6-of-7 FT), five rebounds and three assists. He did commit six turnovers, however.

The other two main scorers for the Sooners are G Isaiah Cousins (12.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG) and F Ryan Spangler (11.2 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.3 APG). Cousins has 11 games of 10+ points this season, but has been in a major shooting funk since Christmas, where he has made only 26% FG (15-of-58) and 5-of-21 threes (24%) in the past five games.

Cousins had 14 points, but also five turnovers, in the loss at West Virginia last season. He finished with 10 points and zero turnovers in the home win.

Spangler has racked up six double-doubles in his senior season and has been unselfish with four assists in each of his past two contests. Although Spangler is making a career-best 43% threes, he is also shooting a career-low 59% from the foul line. In last season's series with West Virginia, Spangler averaged a solid 10.0 PPG and 6.5 RPG.

NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

West Virginia at Oklahoma

Oklahoma (14-1, 7-6 ATS) will host West Virginia (15-1, 8-5 ATS) in Norman Saturday afternoon. Sooners, behind leading contender for player of the year Buddy Hield (26.6 PPG, 5.7 RBG) are one of the best teams in the country on offense (87.3) dropping 47.9% from the filed, 46.1% from outside. Flawless on home court (8-0, 3-3 ATS) this season, Sooners have now won 25 of 26 in front of its frenzied home crowd going 14-8 in line games. Sooners dominating this series have won/cashed 5-of-7 meetings since West Virginia joined the Big-12 including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in Norman.

Sooners face a stiff test, Mountaineers are no slouches when it comes to scoring (85.2) and are one of the best at keeping the ball out of their own basket giving up just 63.4 points/game on 41.7% from the field, 27.3% from long range. Consider West Virginia, the Mountaineers are 13-2 ATS in lined games allowing opponents 75.0 or less, the Sooners are 2-9 ATS held at =< 75.0 points/game and a money-burning 2-10 ATS vs the conference.