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College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 23

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College Basketball Knowledge

UConn won three of last four games with Georgetown, losing in double OT in last meeting three years ago. Hoyas won seven of last nine games; they're 4-2 in true road games, losing by 4 at Maryland, 13 at Creighton. UConn won last two games by 15-18 points; they beat Ohio State by 20, Memphis by 3 in only top 100 home games. Big East teams are 4-0 vs AAC teams this season (3-1 vs spread).

Oklahoma won five of last seven games with Baylor; Sooners won two of last three visits to Waco. Bears won last five games overall, are 3-0 in Big X home games, winning by 17-28-7ot points. Oklahoma lost two of three Big X road games with only win by hoop at Oklahoma State- they lost in triple OT at Kansas, by 5 at Iowa State. Big X home underdogs are 5-5 vs spread. Sooners are shooting 45.7% on arc, best in US.

Kansas won 13 of last 16 games with Texas, winning last four here, by 10-26-31-5 points. Jayhawks lost two of last three games, losing by 19 at Oklahoma State last game, when they were outscored 43-29 in second half. Last eight Texas games were decided by 8 or less points; Longhorns won last three, winning last game at West Va. Big X home underdogs of 8+ points are 4-5 vs spread. Texas is 2-2 on road, losses by 1-8 points.

Duke lost its last three games by total of nine points, could fall out of top 25 with loss in this game, vs NC State team they've beaten 14 of last 17 meetings, winning last eight played here, seven by 13+ points. Duek is 2-1 as ACC road favorite. Wolfpack upset Pitt for first ACC win in six tries; they're 0-2 in ACC home games, losing by 5-7 points. ACC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-2 vs spread.

Nebraska won its last four games after starting 0-3 in Big 14; Huskers are 0-5 vs Michigan in Big 14 play, losing by 1-16 in games played in Lincoln. Michigan split last four games after starting season 12-3; its one Big 14 road win in three tries was by 10 at Illinois. Michigan is shooting 40.2% on arc in league play. Big 14 home teams are 4-9 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.

UCLA is 3-2 in its last five games with Oregon; Bruins lost two of last three visits here, losing by 18 LY. UCLA won three of last four games after getting swept on Washington trip; Bruins are 2-2 in true road tilts, winning at Gonzaga/Oregon State. Ducks are 3-0 in Pac-12 home games, winning by 3-13-8 points; Oregon is 15-4 against the #22 schedule, so they've been tested. Pac-12 home favorites of 5+ points are 7-4.

Louisville won its last two games by 18-19 points since getting upset at Clemson; Cardinals are 4-1, 2nd in ACC- they're 1-3 in true road games, with win by 5 at NC State. Georgia Tech lost four of five games after its 10-3 start; Jackets split pair of home games, with two games decided by total of 7 points. Louisville won 52-51 (-5.5) in Atlanta LY, in teams' first ACC meeting- Cardinals have #3 eFG% defense in country.

Kentucky is 11-2 in last 13 games with Vanderbilt, winning last seven in Rupp Arena, last four all by 9 or less points. Wildcats are 4-2 in SEC, with four of six on road; they swept Mississippi schools at home by 22-6 points. Vandy scored 78 ppg in winning last three games; they're 1-4 in true road games, with three losses by five or less points SEC home favorites are 13-9 against the spread.

Butler-Creighton split first four Big East meetings, going 1-1 in each gym with last three all decided by 5 or less points. Bulldogs' two wins over Creighton LY were by total of 5 points. Butler is 2-5 vs top 50 teams, losing all four Big East games s top 50 teams- they're 2-2 in road games, winning at Cincy, DePaul. Creighton lost two of its three Big East home games. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-3 vs spread.

Michigan State lost its last three games, but is favored over a Maryland squad that is 11-1 in last 12 games, with only loss by 3 at Michigan. Big 14 home teams are 4-9 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points. Spartans are putting foes on foul line most of anyone in league, not getting there much themselves; they miss injured G Nairn. Maryland is 2-2 in true road games, winning at Northwestern, Wisconsin.

Tex-Arlington won last three games with Ark-Little Rock by 4-7-9, with teams splitting two games played here. Teams are tied in loss column on top of Sun Belt. UTA won its three Sun Belt home games by 15-20-27 points. Trojans are 3-1 on Sun Belt, splitting pair of 3-point decisions in last two games. UALR force turnovers 23.3% of time (#10). Sun Belt home favorites of 8 or less points are 7-5 vs spread.

Nevada is 3-2 in last five games with UNLV after Rebels had won eight in row over Wolf Pack before that. UNLV won five of six visits to Reno; they're 3-0 overall since changing coaches, winning at Utah State in last game. Nevada is 3-3 in MW despite playing four of six games on foreign soil; Wolf Pack is 6-1 at home, with only loss by 7 to Boise. Mountain West home underdogs are 4-7 against the spread.

Belmont/Tennessee State are last two unbeatens in OVC, Bruins won 11 of last 12 games with TSU, winning last six played here, with four of six won by 11+ points. Belmont won its last seven games after a 7-6 start, winning all three OVC home games by 26-8-18 points. State won its two OVC home games by 5-6 points; they lost by 5 at Tennessee in only top 100 game this season. OVC home favorites are 16-11 vs spread.

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Posted : January 22, 2016 1:57 pm
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NBAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma at Baylor

Baylor Bears riding a five game winning streak (4-1 ATS) enter the contest 15-3 on the year (5-7 ATS) and 5-1 in conference play (4-2 ATS). Bears with four players scoring in double digits lead by Taurean Price (15.0) are netting 80.7 PPG and are solid at keeping the ball out of their own basket allowing opponents 66.6 per/contest on 42.2% from the field, 33.8% from long range. Bears great at protecting home court have won thirteen straight in Waco and sixteen consecutive in front of the frienzied home crowd with a 5-5 ATS mark in lined games.

Oklahoma Sooners losing 82-77 at Iowa State last time out carry a 15-2 (7-8 ATS) record into the game, 1-7 ATS skid overall, 4-2 (1-5 ATS) record within the conference. Lead by last year's BIG XII P.O.Y. Buddy Hield (26.1) along three other double digit scorers the Sooners are dropping 85.7 points/game while allowing opponents 71.6 per/contest. Sooners have struggle away from Norman in true road games going a 4-4 last eight with a 2-6 record against the betting line.

Each team won/covered in its own back yard last season but Sooners remain a commanding 7-4 SU last eleven trips into Waco with a money-grabbing 11-2 record against the betting line.

Providence at Villanova

Villanova Wildcats (17-2, 9-8-1 ATS) look to remain undefeated in Big East play (7-0, 3-4 ATS) when they host Providence Friars (16-3, 11-7 ATS). Defense the moniker for these Wildcats allowing a stingy 60.6 PPG got to lean Villanova's way as they've dominated this series, winning five consecutive games (3-2 ATS) and haven't lost a BIG East regular season or Conference Tournament game in over a year, last falling at Georgetown on Jan. 19, 2015 recording 22 straight with a money-making 16-6 record against the betting line.

 
Posted : January 22, 2016 1:58 pm
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College Hoops Newsletter
By Brandon Shively

Oklahoma @ Baylor - Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia all took losses this week. BIG 12 ranked teams are dropping like flies. That sets the stage for this game as Baylor puts their unbeaten 13-0 record at home on the line against an Oklahoma team that has been burning money now going 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Baylor is off an overtime win against Kansas State which they struggled, but I imagine the team was looking ahead to this game. I could see Oklahoma pulling off the win here, but it will be hard. The Sooners his 17-for-32 three pointers at Iowa State. I don’t see them making nearly as many against a Baylor defense that is better than Iowa State. This total will be high…Maybe too high..I have to pass on a side, but will lean to the ‘UNDER’.

Texas @ Kansas - This is a double bounce game. Texas coming off a win as a double digit road dog. Kansas coming off a loss as a 9 point road favorite. The win for Texas was Shaka Smart’s biggest win of the season. The loss for Kansas was their second of the season. The Jayhawks are now 0-3 ATS their last three games which included a struggle against TCU last Saturday. Texas is playing good ball currently taking care of the ball with Isaiah Taylor running the point. This game still spells letdown for Texas and should be one where Kansas returns to form. I feel like Kansas is due for a cover, but I can’t do it considering that Shaka Smart has his team playing the best of the season.

Oakland @ Green Bay - This is an up and down game. Both teams push the pace. Sure the total is high but only a long scoring drought can stop this one and I don’t see that happening. Oakland is averaging 82 ppg their last five game and Green Bay is averaging 85 ppg their last five games. Green Bay is ranked #2 in the nation in possessions per 40 minutes. Oakland is ranked 11th in possessions per 40 minutes. The OVER is 10-3 in Oakland’s L13 road games. Both teams have played Youngstown State and the totals hit 198 and 196. I think this should be a similar type of score. *OVER*

Duke @ NC State - Duke is coming off three consecutive losses. That’s almost unheard of. Meanwhile, NC State was winless in the ACC before getting a big road win earlier in the week. NC State has a team that does not have much depth. Cat Barber at the point guard will meet his match against the guards of Duke. At the end of the day, I like Coach K in this spot to have his team focused. I like the duo of Grayson Allen with the freshman Ingram. Duke struggled against the 3-2 zone of Syracuse. NC State is no where a good as defensive team of Syracuse. This is a NC State team that has home losses to Florida State by 7 points and to Louisville by five points. Duke is shooting over 50% from the floor on the road this season. My gut tells me they get the cover here. *Duke by 9*

Marshall @ Old Dominion - This is a game where we have two contrasting styles of play. Marshall is ranked 4th in the nation in tempo while Old Dominion is ranked 348th. I like the defensive minded home team here of Old Dominion. Marshall plays NO DEFENSE. Their coach is Dantoni’s brother who used to coach the Phoenix Suns with the run and gun offense. Old Dominion is 5-0 SU the last five meetings and have covered the last four. They won by 17 and 21 last year. Marshall is playing their 4th consecutive road game which is also not favorable while Old Dominion is playing their fourth consecutive home game. Old Dominion is 1-5 ATS in conference play making me a bit gun shy, while Marshall is 5-1 ATS. It’s hard for the oddsmakers to set a total here for this game due to the contrasting styles. Marshall is a perfect 6-0 OVER in conference play putting up NBA numbers. I will lean on my initial gut feeling and say the defensive team prevails here. *Old Dominion*

Seton Hall @ Xavier - Seton Hall battled Villanova to a one point loss on Wednesday night. I don’t see them being able to pick themselves up on the road here against an Xavier team that has BLOWOUT capability at home. Xavier is coming off their first home loss of the season. Their other two conference home games have been wins by 19 and 20 and those were without their point guard Sumner. Sumner is back in the lineup, however went 2-for-12 from the floor in the loss against Georgetown last week. The home team covered both meetings last year in this series. *Xavier*

Louisville @ Georgia Tech - The ACC is a conference that is full of parity. Louisville is a team that I have cashed in with their last two games but these were home games. All three off their losses have been on the road this year. They are 0-2 ATS as a road favorite in ACC play. Georgia Tech has their best team in years. They are coming off back to back losses, but they had a nice lead before losing by one point against Virginia Tech, who has been the biggest surprise in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets did beat Virginia at home 68-64. They are 3-0-1 ATS their last three games as an underdog. Georgia Tech took Louisville down to the wire last year losing by one point but they got the cover as they were getting +5.5 points. Georgia Tech has experience with five seniors and two juniors in the rotation. With three transfers in the rotation, it took a while for the team to get in sync, but now they are in solid form. Georgia Tech also takes care of the ball only turning it over 10 times a game. Even after backing Louisville the last two games, I still question their offensive efficiency and feel it’s harder for their strong defense to compensate on the road. *Georgia Tech* with a lean on *UNDER 133 or more*

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky - I have watched both teams a lot this year. Kentucky is not that good in my opinion and Vanderbilt is the best seven loss team in the nation. Vanderbilt is the tallest team in the SEC and this is a rare game where they have a size and talent edge down low against Kentucky. Vanderbilt is ranked 14th in the nation in defensive efficiency. After starting out 0-3 in SEC play, the ‘Dores have won their last three games. The win against Tennessee was big for the team, but not so big that they can’t prepare for this game. Damian Jones has been getting in foul trouble and HC Stallings has been publicly criticizing the officials. What is encouraging about the win against Tennessee is that Fisher-Davis and Justice combined for 30 points and 10-for-18 from the three point line. To know that your bench players are capable of coming into the game and making the shots that you need is added insurance. For Damian Jones, this is a ‘put up or shut up’ game against the Wildcats. With the NBA scouts in attendance, I really feel he will have one of his best games of the season. Last year, it was Kentucky that had the seven footers. This year Vandy has three seven footers (two that start). Kentucky really has only one three point threat in Jamal Murray. Vanderbilt has four three point shooters at the minimum. Isaiah Briscoe, their 3rd leading scorer shoots only 34% from the foul line. Tyler Ulis only shoots 29% from the three point line. Kentucky’s last home game they only beat Mississippi State by six points. While they are off a 14 point win against Arkansas, the Razorbacks went only 3-for-12 from the three point line. Vanderbilt will hit more than their fair share of three’s in this game. I see the Commodores posing big time problems for this Kentucky team. Vandy is 6-0-1 ATS the last seven meetings and are 4-0 ATS the last four road meetings as they have all been decided by single digits. *Vanderbilt*

Citadel @ East Tenn. - Citadel does is go OVER and that’s all you need to know. They have the worst defense in the nation. All they do is run up and down the court, spread five guys on the perimeter and shoot threes. Then if they are losing at the end of the game, they start to foul early and try to trade three pointers for free throws. East Tennessee State has is averaging 81 ppg their last five games. This comes against slower paced teams like Samford, Mercer, and VMI. They are shooting 43.5% from the three point over their last five games. East Tennessee should hang a 100 ball on this Citadel team. I’m seeing a crazy final score in the 102-87 range. *OVER*

Maryland @ Michigan State - The Spartans are on a three game losing streak and this is not the game they want to try to get back in the winner’s circle. The Terrapins are huge down low and I see . Maryland is 4-2 SU in this series the last six meetings. They beat the Spartans last year by 16 then Sparty got revenge winning by four points, but failing to cover the 4.5 point spread in the BIG 10 tourney in the semifinals. This Maryland team is much better this season in my opinion starting with freshman Diamond Stone and Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter. This team is huge down low and hold a size advantage over the Spartans along with more depth down low. I think they can use the size along with Dez Wells attacking the paint to get to the foul line, and another loss would not surprise me. Take the points with *Maryland*

Oklahoma State @ Kansas State - Oklahoma State is coming off their biggest win of the season against Kansas. This spells BIG letdown and they play at Kansas State where the home team is 16-5 ATS the last 21 meetings with the favorite going 8-1 ATS the last nine. Kansas State has the better defense and starting off 1-5 SU in conference play, they need this win. Two of their six losses have been in overtime. The line is low enough here for us to believe Kansas State gets the cover. *Kansas State*

Auburn @ Florida - This is a game where Florida strives on defense. They have the #1 defense in the SEC in terms of defensive efficiency. Auburn is coming off their biggest win of the season last weekend against Kentucky then got a win over their in-state rival Alabama. That sets the stage for this game. The Gators are 3-0 ATS at home in the SEC. I really like their style of play in this matchup along with the fact of Auburn being in double let down mode. Don’t let the spread scare you here. Just lay it. *Florida*

BYU @ Pepperdine - Two things that I know. BYU is not a good road team and Pepperdine gave Saint Mary’s their lone loss in conference play. This is also BYU’s fourth consecutive road game. They are 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS, but the Cougars loss was a 9.5 point favorite at Portland and although they beat Marymount by 11 on Thursday, the Cougars were down ten points at the half. Fischer and Collinsworth played 39 and 40 minutes. I question their legs for this game. BYU doesn’t have a lot of depth either. Five guys played 30 or minutes on Thursday night. It’s basically a six man rotation with a seventh guy playing five or six minutes. Fischer has played 116 of the 120 minutes in the last three road games. Collinsworth has played 76 of the last 80 minutes. Fatigue could easily be a factor. Pepperdine is 4-0 SU at home in conference play and a PERFECT 8-0 overall at home. They have two seniors and two juniors starting. Pepperdine has three guys shooting over 40% from the three point line. Their top 3 scorers shoot 71% or better from the foul line. Pepperdine is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. They have won the last two at home as a 2.5 and 6.5 point dog. They were an 11 point dog in 2013 and only lost by two points. The last five meetings have been decided by eight points or less. *Pepperdine*

North Texas @ UAB - UAB is ballin, especially at home. The Blazers are playing with revenge from last year’s 67-64 loss on the road. After a sluggish start to the season, UAB found their groove and are now 13-0 SU their last thirteen games. They are running C-USA and are going to run all over this North Texas team that likes the size down low to compete here. North Texas prefers to not play defense also as they have given up 84 ppg over their last five games. UAB is averaging 80 ppg at home. North Texas only shoots 59% from the foul line and this is important to note when talking about covering a spread. We are talking about 5-7 free throws that should be made per game which would be extra points. I liked UAB before the season started. I don’t see them being slowed down on Saturday night. *UAB*

 
Posted : January 22, 2016 10:45 pm
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Saturday's Big 12 Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

The Big 12 currently boasts three teams in the first six spots of the AP’s latest Top 25, but that should change following a costly loss earlier this week by all three of these national powers. Turning to this Saturday’s early afternoon college hoops slate, all three teams will get a chance to get back to their winning ways.

No. 1 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 13 Baylor Bears

Betting Point-spread: PICK

Betting Matchup

Oklahoma’s stay at the top spot in the national polls should be brief following this past Monday’s 82-77 loss to Iowa State as a two-point road underdog. It was the seventh time the Sooners failed to cover against the spread in their last eight games. It was also the third-straight game in which they failed to score more than 80 points as opposed to a season-average of 85.7 points per game that is ranked fourth in the nation. Oklahoma is also one of the top rebounding teams in the country with 42.9 a game.

The Bears could make a major jump in the polls with a win on Saturday after going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They did fail to cover their last time out in a 79-72 win against Kansas State as 8½-point home favorites and the total went OVER the closing 139½ point line. It has now gone OVER in four of six conference games this year. Baylor matches-up well against the Sooners with an average of 80.7 points and 39.9 rebounds a game. It has the third-best shooting percentage (48.1) from the field in the Big 12.

Betting Trends

The Sooners are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 conference games and they have failed to cover in their last four games played on Saturday. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 road games.

The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five Saturday games.

Head-to-head in this Big 12 tilt, Oklahoma has gone 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17 road games against Baylor and the total has UNDER in three of the last five meetings.

No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Betting Point-spread: West Virginia -2½

Betting Matchup

West Virginia is another Big 12 team that should take a tumble in the national rankings after suffering a stunning 56-49 loss to Texas this past Wednesday as a heavy 12-point home favorite. The total stayed well UNDER the 146-point closing line and it has now stayed UNDER in its last four games. This followed a big 74-63 victory over Kansas as a one-point home underdog and a tight 70-68 loss to Oklahoma as a 4½ point underdog on the road. Despite this major letdown against the Longhorns, the Mountaineers are still a solid scoring team with 82.3 PPG.

The Red Raiders snapped a SU four-game skid with Monday’s 76-69 victory against TCU as four-point road favorites. They are now 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in conference play with the total going 3-3 in the six games. Both sophomore forward Justin Gray and junior forward Aaron Ross came off the bench in Monday’s win to combine for 30 points. The entire starting five for Texas Tech in that game combined for a total of 30 points. The bad news is that starting center Norense Odiase broke a bone in his foot and is out indefinitely.

Betting Trends

The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after failing to cover in their previous game. The total has gone OVER in 15 of their last 22 Saturday games.

The Red Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and they have covered ATS in five of their last seven games played on a Saturday. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games following an ATS win.

The road team in this conference matchup is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five games between these two. West Virginia is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with a 3-1 record ATS.

Texas Longhorns at No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks

Betting Point-spread: Kansas -9

Betting Matchup

Wednesday’s upset against West Virginia raised the Longhorns’ Big 12 record to 4-2 SU, but they are still just 2-4 ATS in those six games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. Despite the big win, Texas still lacks consistency from one game to the next as far as putting points on the board. After scoring just 57 points in a one-point loss to TCU, it went on to put-up 94 points in an upset over Iowa State and 74 points in a win against Oklahoma State in these three previous outings. Junior guard Isaiah Taylor is the team’s leading scorer with 16.4 PPG.

Kansas fell from the top spot in the national rankings with the loss to West Virginia on Jan. 12 and it should slide again following Tuesday’s stunning 89-67 loss to Oklahoma State as a nine-point road favorite. The Jayhawks are now 4-2 SU in conference play with a 2-4 record ATS. The total went OVER 142 against the Cowboys after staying UNDER in their previous three contests. Kansas is averaging 84.8 PPG this season, but this number has dropped dramatically to just 67.3 points over its last four games. Leading scorer Perry Ellis (15.8 PPG) has just 23 combined points in his last two starts.

Betting Trends

The Longhorns have failed to cover in five of their last seven road games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 12 conference games.

The Jayhawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Saturday games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games played on Saturday.

Kansas has won four of the last five meetings SU with a slight 3-2 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings.

 
Posted : January 22, 2016 10:49 pm
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Saturday's Night Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Maryland at Michigan State

Michigan State (16-4 straight up, 10-9 against the spread) will try to avoid an unfathomable four-game losing streak Saturday night when it takes on Maryland at Breslin Center. As of Friday afternoon, one offshore shop had opened the Spartans as 3.5-point favorites.

Tom Izzo’s team lost its third consecutive game Wednesday at home when Nebraska came into East Lansing and won a 72-71 decision as a 14-point road underdog. In his postgame presser, Izzo described his team’s situation as a “mid-life crisis.” Fortunately for the Spartans, they are accustomed to Izzo fixing flaws and getting his team ready to play its best basketball in March.

Denzel Valentine produced 24 points, six assists and six rebounds in the losing effort against the Cornhuskers. Eron Harris had 14 points in 22 minutes of playing time, draining all four of his attempts from 3-point range. The Spartans hit 11-of-18 shots (61.1%) from downtown and enjoyed the rebounding advantage (35-31). However, just as Izzo noted in his postgame presser, Nebraska shot at a 50.0 percent clip (29-of-58) from the field.

Since returning from an injury that kept him out for four games, Valentine is scoring at a 17.8 points-per-game clip. For the season, the senior slasher is averaging 18.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game.

Maryland (17-2 SU, 9-10 ATS) is one-half game back of the Big Ten co-leaders, Indiana and Iowa, both of whom remain undefeated in league play. The Terrapins improved to 6-1 in Big Ten action with Tuesday’s 62-56 win over Northwestern in overtime. They failed to cover the number as 12-point home ‘chalk.’ Melo Trimble scored 18 points and dished out six assists, while Robert Carter tallied 10 points, 14 rebounds, three blocked shots, two assists and one steal. Diamond Stone was also in double figures with 11 points in only 15 minutes of playing time.

Like Valentine, Trimble is a likely All-American selection. The sophomore guard is averaging 13.9 points, 5.7 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Stone is averaging 13.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, while Carter is scoring at a 13.2 PPG clip and pulling down a team-best 7.0 RPG.

Michigan State has won eight of its 10 home games, posting a 5-4 spread record.

If the line holds and Maryland is an underdog, it’ll be just its second such spot this year. The Terps lost 89-81 at North Carolina as 7.5-point ‘dogs.

Michigan State is No. 30 in the RPI Rankings, going 4-2 against the Top 50 and 6-3 versus the Top 100. The Spartans’ top four wins including home victories over Florida and Louisville, in addition to neutral-court scalps of Kansas and Providence.

Maryland is No. 9 in the RPI Rankings, but it is winless in a pair of games against Top-50 opponents. The Terps lost 89-81 at North Carolina and 70-67 at Michigan. They have five Top-100 wins, including a neutral-floor triumph over UConn.

The ‘under’ is 11-8 overall for Michigan State, 6-3 in its home games.

Totals have been an overall wash for Maryland (9-9), but it has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in its four true road assignments. The ‘under’ has cashed at a 6-2 clip for the Terps in their last eight outings.

ESPN will have the broadcast at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

Arizona at California

Arizona (16-3 SU, 11-8 ATS) is tied for second place in the Pac-12 with Southern Cal and Oregon, with each team one game back of league-leading Washington. The Wildcats are 4-2 in conference action, while the Golden Bears are 3-3 in league play. As of Friday afternoon, one offshore book had UA favored by two points.

Since losing back-to-back games at UCLA and at USC two weeks ago, Sean Miller’s team has won three in a row both SU and ATS. Arizona thumped Stanford 71-57 as a 5.5-point road favorite Thursday night in Palo Alto. Gabe York hit four treys and finished with a game-high 19 points. Ryan Anderson added 18 points and eight rebounds, making all seven of his shots from the floor and 4-of-5 at the charity stripe. The Wildcats destroyed the Cardinal on the glass with a 41-25 rebounding advantage.

Anderson is UA’s leading scorer (15.0 PPG) who averages a double-double (10.1 RPG) and is shooting at a 57.1 percent clip from the field. Anderson, a transfer from Boston College, is draining 40.0 percent of his launches from 3-point range.

Arizona freshman guard Allonzo Trier is averaging 14.8 PPG, while York is scoring at a 13.7 PPG clip. Senior center Kaleb Tarczewski is averaging 10.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.

Arizona is the best rebounding team in the Pac-12 and ranks eighth in the country in rebounding margin (11.3).

California (13-6 SU, 9-10 ATS) is undefeated in 12 home games with a 7-5 spread record. However, Cuonzo Martin’s squad won’t have its leader in scoring and assists, as Tyrone Wallace (14.5 PPG, 4.5 APG) will miss his second straight game with a broken bone in his hand. Wallace isn’t expected to return until late February at the earliest.

Without Wallace for the first time all year, California snapped a three-game losing streak by knocking off Arizona St. 75-70 as a seven-point home favorite Thursday night. Ivan Rabb was the catalyst with 20 points, eight rebounds, six assists and three blocked shots. Jaylen Brown added 17 points despite fouling out and playing only 20 minutes due to foul trouble. Jabari Bird contributed 10 points and eight rebounds, while Sam Singer dished out eight assists and pulled down six boards. Jordan Matthews was also in double figures with 10 points.

Martin pulled a monster recruiting class last year, hauling in a pair of consensus Top-10 players in Brown and Rabb. Both have been ‘as advertised’ to date. Brown is averaging 14.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, while Rabb is averaging 12.7 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. Rabb, the 6’10” Oakland product from Bishop O’Dowd High School, has a team-best 27 blocked shots and is making 64.6 percent of his shots from the field.

Arizona is No. 26 in the RPI Rankings, going 2-3 versus the Top 50 and 6-3 against the Top 100. The Wildcats own road wins at Arizona St., at Stanford and at Gonzaga. They have a pair of wins over a likely NCAA Tournament team in Boise St. and blasted Washington by 32 points at home.

Cal is No. 48 in the RPI, compiling a 4-3 record against the Top 50 and a 5-5 mark versus the Top 100. The Golden Bears owns quality victories at home over Saint Mary’s, Davidson, Colorado, Utah and ASU. There was no shame in a 63-62 loss at Virginia and a 68-65 setback at Oregon.

Arizona has won four in a row both SU and ATS in this rivalry, including a 73-50 win at Cal on Jan. 24 of last season. The Wildcats beat the Golden Bears three times last year by margins of 23, 39 and 22 points.

The ‘over’ is 13-6 overall for the Wildcats after cashing in seven of their last eight contests.

The ‘under’ is 10-9 overall for the Golden Bears, 7-5 in their home games. However, they have seen the ‘over’ cash in three straight outings.

The ‘over’ has hit at a 20-8 clip in the last 28 head-to-head meetings between these long-time conference rivals.

Tip-off in Berkeley is slated for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Gonzaga is in legit danger of perhaps missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Mark Few took over the program in 2000. The Bulldogs dropped a 70-67 decision Thursday night at Saint Mary’s, but they did cover the number as five-point underdogs. Few’s team played its standard non-conference schedule featuring heavyweights like Washington, Arizona, UCLA, Texas A&M, UConn and Tennessee. But the Bulldogs are 0-4 against the RPI Top 50 and lost at home to BYU. We should note that Gonzaga’s five losses have come by just 15 combined points. The ‘Zags lost by one to the Aggies and the Cougars.

Since covering the spread in its first 12 games, Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games.

If Monmouth (14-5 SU) doesn’t win its conference tournament, it is going to be an interesting case for the selection committee. The Hawks have quality wins galore, including road wins over teams in the Big Ten, Big East and Pac-12. They beat USC and Notre Dame on neutral courts, won by double digits at Georgetown and knocked off UCLA at Pauley Pavilion in the season opener. But Monmouth lost at Manhattan on Thursday night and also has defeats at Canisius and at Army.

Texas will be looking to pull a second straight upset on the road Saturday when it goes to Lawrence for a 2:00 p.m. Eastern tip. The Longhorns went into Morgantown on Wednesday night and beat West Virginia by a 56-49 count as 12-point underdogs. They’ll be significant ‘dogs again at Kansas.

Fresh off its fourth consecutive victory in Big Ten play, Nebraska will attempt to cover the number for the sixth straight time when it hosts Michigan on ESPN2 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

Florida has won back-to-back games since losing at heartbreaker at Texas A&M. The Gators will collide with Auburn on Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. Bruce Pearl’s team brings plenty of confidence to the O-Dome after scoring consecutive home wins over Kentucky and Alabama.

Ole Miss might be without three starters for Saturday’s game at Mississippi State. Stefan Moody, the SEC’s leading scorer, is ‘questionable’ due to a hamstring strain.

If you don’t get the Pac-12 Network (Arizona State at Stanford at 11:00 p.m.), the last televised game on the board will be UNLV at Nevada. This game will tip at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. The Rebels are unbeaten in three games since firing head coach Dave Rice.

Can you name the mascot of the nation’s best ATS team? If you can, that’s impressive. If you can’t, it’s the IUPU-Ft. Wayne Mastodons, who are 14-2 versus the number. They host IUPUI at 7:00 p.m. Easter on Saturday night.

 
Posted : January 23, 2016 4:47 am
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Game of the Day: Maryland at Michigan State
By Covers.com

Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State (-3.5, 140.5)

No. 10 Michigan State is trending in the wrong direction and the Spartans look to break a three-game losing streak when they host No. 5 Maryland in Saturday's Big Ten showdown. Michigan State dropped one-point decisions to Wisconsin and Nebraska in its last two outings while the Terrapins are a half-game out of first place in the conference race.

Spartans coach Tom Izzo admits his team's confidence has dipped due to the skid but made it clear there isn't any signs of panic. "I haven't lost the team, haven't lost the locker room," Izzo told reporters. "Nobody is upset about this and that. We just got to get more guys playing a little bit better and maybe a bit smarter." Maryland's only Big Ten blemish is a road loss against Michigan on Jan. 12 and the team rebounded with a 35-point trouncing of Ohio State before surviving a 62-56 overtime victory against Northwestern on Tuesday. "Some nights things don't go well and you just have to figure out ways to win," Terrapins coach Mark Turgeon told reporters.

LINE HISTORY: Despite the Spartans current slump, they have opened as 3.5-point home favorites. The total opened at 140.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Maryland - G D. Wiley (out for season, knee).

Michigan State - F K. Goins (probable Saturday, foot), F M. Costello (probable Saturday, ankle), G L. Nairn (out indefinitely, foot).

ABOUT MARYLAND (17-2, 9-10 ATS, 9-9-1 O/U): Freshman center Diamond Stone has provided the Terrapins with a strong inside scorer; he has 12 consecutive double-digit outings while averaging 13.5 points and shooting 59.9 percent from the field. Sophomore point guard Melo Trimble leads Maryland in scoring (13.9) and assists (5.7) while junior forward Robert Carter Jr. averages 13.2 points and a team-best seven rebounds. Gritty senior forward Jake Layman (10.9) and senior guard Rasheed Sulaimon (10.4) also score in double figures for a team shooting 50.9 percent from the field, a figure that ranks fifth nationally.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (16-4, 10-9 ATS, 8-11 O/U): The Spartans' slump began shortly after the return of do-everything guard Denzel Valentine from a four-game absence due to a knee injury and the player averaging 18.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists said his team needs to play with more intelligence. "We need to come out and be ready to play," Valentine told reporters. "Maryland is a great team and has good players. We just can't make late-game mistakes. We've been playing well enough the last few games. We just haven't played smart enough." Senior guard Bryn Forbes ranks second on the squad in scoring (13.1) but is averaging just 5.7 points on 5-of-22 shooting during the three-game losing streak.

TRENDS:

* Maryland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Michigan State's last 4 Saturday games.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Maryland's last 4 road games.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-three percent of wagers are backing Maryland in this Big Ten showdown.

 
Posted : January 23, 2016 4:19 pm
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