College Basketball Knowledge
Since 2003, #2-seeds are 11-5 SU vs #1-seeds in regional finals; dogs are 9-7 vs spread in those games. In Oregon's last 3 losses, opponents shot 26-43 (60.5%) behind arc- Oklahoma shoots 42.6% (#2) on arc (30-71 in NCAAs). Oregon won its last 11 games; their foes shoot 35.7% on arc (#237). Three of seven Ducks in rotation are seniors; Oklahoma has four kids who started 100+ games together. Neither team subs much. Since 1998, underdogs are 15-3 vs spread in West Region final. Big X teams are 6-4 vs Pac-12 this season; favorites are 7-2 vs spread in those games.
Bill Self is 2-3 in regional finals; he was favored in all five games; Kansas won last 17 games, beating Maryland by 16 Thursday- they're making 41.8% on arc (#4). Villanova foes shoot 33.9% on arc (#134); they lost to Oklahoma 78-55 on Pearl Harbor Dec 7, their only Big X game this year. Wildcats are 13-2 outside Big East; their closest game in this event has been 19 points- they crushed Iowa/Miami in last two. Since 2003, #2-seeds are 11-5 SU vs #1-seeds in regional finals; underdogs are 9-7 vs spread in those games. Big X teams are 2-1 vs Big East this season.
Armadillosports.com
Saturday's Elite 8 Tips
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
#1 Oregon (PK, 151) vs. #2 Oklahoma
The Ducks and Sooners have held up as the top seeds in the West, dominating games due to their ball movement and shot-making skills. Both are averaging over 80 points per game in this NCAA Tournament and have won comfortably, albeit a combined 3-3 against the spread. That may be one reason oddsmakers have placed pick’em status on this one, leaving it up to the betting public to decide whether they’re backing the least-respected No. 1 seed or a Buddy Hield-led squad that has been in the spotlight for the last few months. There’s no question both are playing well, but it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see Oklahoma bet into a favorite position between now and tip-off.
On the floor, these are teams with similar strengths, but Oregon certainly has the size advantage. Center Chris Boucher is the nation’s second-leading shot-blocker and is a factor on the offensive end because he’s versatile enough to step out and knock down a jump shot. Dillon Brooks, who had his national coming-out party on Thursday night despite the fact he was First Team All-Pac-12, scored 25 points last round, the last three of which drew the ire of Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski. He’s incredibly mature for the college level, consistently hunting his shot but playing with a very composed demeanor. Elgin Cook, a versatile forward who scored 16 points and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds against the Blue Devils, can similarly beat you inside and out. 6-foot-9 sophomore Jordan Bell comes off the bench and adds even more depth.
The way Oklahoma can defeat the Ducks is to continue shooting the lights out the way they did against a Texas A&M team that typically stifles opponents but had no question for the arsenal surrounding Buddy Hield, who actually had a rough start in the round of 16, often seeing as many as three bodies around him. Hield ended up with 10 boards and 17 points, but it was Jordan Woodard who led five double-digit scorers in the win over the Aggies, scoring 22 and making five of his six 3-point shots. The Sooners shot 49.2 percent.
The Sooners shot 11-for-25 (44 pct) from beyond the arc and will undoubtedly shoot it with impunity here. Hield hit just two of his seven 3-point attempts. This is Oklahoma’s first Elite 8 appearance since 2009. Oregon, the 1939 NCAA Tournament champ (inaugural edition), hasn't been back to the Final Four since. They've won 10 consecutive games, winning the Pac-12's regular-season and tournament titles and setting a new record for single-season wins. Dana Altman is in the Elite Eight for the first time in his 26-season head coaching career. Counterpart Lon Kruger is here with his third team, having reached this stage with Kansas State and Florida. The Sooners are looking to get back to the Final Four for the first time in 14 seasons. The ‘under’ has prevailed in 11 of the last 13 Oklahoma games and has come through in Oregon’s last two games.
#1 Kansas (-2.5, 145.5) vs. #2 Villanova
The top teams in this region have been impressive in each of their victories in this NCAA Tournament, perhaps more than any other teams in this tournament. Combined, they’re 6-0 against the number. If the Wildcats hadn’t lost in the Big East Tournament final to Seton Hall, there’s little doubt that the earliest these teams would’ve met would’ve been a national semifinal, since ‘Nova would have earned a No. 1 seed if not for stumbling. Both teams were amazing on Thursday night. Villanova forced a bunch of turnovers, but it was its offense that opened eyes, as Miami could do nothing with them in a 92-69 loss that sounds even more impressive when you consider the Hurricanes were the No. 3 seed and looked more overmatched than they were in any ACC game besides a road loss at North Carolina.
Ryan Arcidiacono and Kris Jenkins each scored 21 points and the team as a whole shot 62.7 percent from the field. The Wildcats hit 10-of-15 3-pointers and were 18-for-19 at the free-throw line. They outrebounded Miami 27-17 and consistently beat the Hurricanes to loose balls, something that Kansas head coach Bill Self will undoubtedly point out when his team views film.
Fortunately, the Jayhawks hit the boards hard and came up big against Maryland as a result, winning that battle 43-28. Landan Lucas had 11 rebounds, while Perry Ellis scored 27 points to key the frontcourt effort. Lucas has seemingly been the key for Kansas during this 17-game winning streak. He doesn’t need the ball on the offensive end and dominates on the boards and on intangibles, setting screens and making himself a factor on the defensive end.
Guard play will be pivotal here, as both teams employ a two-point guard look. Villanova’s Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson will tangle with Kansas’ Frank Mason and Devonte Graham, so expect ball-handling and 3-point shooting to be a key factor. The Wildcats have won 15 of 17 have seen the ‘over’ come in 10 of the last 12 times. The Jayhawks are 14-3 ATS over their last 17 and have seen the ‘under’ prevail in their last two outings. Villanova has only been an underdog in one game this season, losing to Virginia.
Oklahoma vs. Oregon Betting Preview
By Covers.com
No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-1, 151)
Oregon defeated Oklahoma on its way to winning the first NCAA Tournament title in 1939, and the top-seeded Ducks will need to go through the No. 2 Sooners again Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. if they hope to return to the Final Four for the first time in 77 years. Oregon will need to find someone to guard Buddy Hield, the two-time Big 12 player of the year who comes in averaging 25.1 points, while Oklahoma will face a similar challenge against Oregon leading scorer Dillon Brooks, who has combined for 47 points in the last two West Region games.
These teams have two common opponents this season in Baylor and Washington State, but the results shed little light on which team might have the edge in this game. Oklahoma beat Baylor by 10 points and two points in conference play, the Ducks knocked off the Bears by seven points in the second game of the season and each blew out Washington State in their only meetings. Both teams faced their biggest challenges of this tournament in the second round, as Oregon needed to rally from seven points down in the final five minutes against No. 8 Saint Joseph's before winning 69-64, the same day Oklahoma held off No. 10 VCU 85-81. The Sooners came back to hammer No. 3 Texas A&M in the Round of 16, a couple hours before the Ducks also posted a 14-point victory against No. 4 Duke.
LINE HISTORY: The first Elite Eight matchup of the Tournament opened at a Pick and the early action was on Oklahoma, moving the line to Sooners -1. Since then however, action has come back on Oregon, moving back to a Pick then to Ducks -1. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Oregon is still a phony No. 1 seed, and they've had an easy path to the Elite 8. They are taking a big step-up in class here against Oklahoma and the Sooners have the offense to match the Ducks. That wasn’t the case in Oregon’s other three games so far." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
ABOUT OREGON (28-6, 13-20 ATS, 15-18 O/U): Both teams feature exceptional supporting casts to go with their leading scorers, but Oregon might have a little more skill in that area. Elgin Cook is a 6-foot-6 forward like Brooks, but prefers to play more on the inside, where he's averaging 15 points and 8.7 rebounds in the tournament. Tyler Dorsey had a strong finish to the regular season, but the freshman guard has struggled with his offensive efficiency during the tournament, and the Ducks feature two elite shot blockers in Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell, who might end up being the difference in this outcome.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (28-7, 21-13 ATS, 15-19 O/U): The Ducks won't come close to matching the Sooners when it comes to chemistry among its starting five, as Hield, Jordan Woodard, Ryan Spangler and Isaiah Cousins have started the last 102 games together. Woodard is having the second-best tournament showing on the team behind Hield, averaging 18 points through the first three games while shooting 9-for-16 from 3-point range. Cousins is the player who needs to pick up his production, as the third starting guard for the Sooners was held to a season-low two points against Texas A&M after shooting 1-for-8 from the floor, though he did contribute eight assists.
TRENDS:
* Oklahoma covered its last game, but is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games.
* Oregon is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 11-2 in Oklahoma's last 13 games overall.
* Under is 7-3 in Oregon's last 10 games overall.
CONSENSUS: The public is fairly split for the West Region final, with 54 percent of the wagers on the No. 1 seed Ducks. As for the total, 66 percent of wagers think the result will go Over.
Villanova vs. Kansas Betting Preview
By Covers.com
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-2.5, 145.5)
Saturday's matchup between Kansas and Villanova features the two teams that perhaps have been more impressive than any other in this NCAA Tournament. Yet, the top-seeded Jayhawks and second-seeded Wildcats are vying for one spot in the Final Four when the teams clash in Louisville to determine the South Region champion.
Leading up to this star-studded matchup that features impact players ranging from freshmen to seniors, Kansas has won its first three games by 26, 12 and 16 points, while Villanova has throttled opponents by 30, 19 and 23 to this point in the tournament. "They're a red-hot team right now," Kansas coach Bill Self said to reporters. "But, honestly, we've been playing pretty well ourselves." Self is looking to get his Jayhawks to the Final Four for the first time since 2012, while the Wildcats have not reached the national semifinals since 2009. "My first responsibility is to these guys. I would love to see them play in the Final Four," said Villanova coach Jay Wright, whose team has won 15 of its last 17, although Kansas has captured 17 games in a row.
LINE HISTORY: Kansas, the South's No. 1 seed, opened as 2.5-point favorites for the regional final over second-seeded Villanova. The early action was on the Wildcats, moving the number to Jayhawks -2, before bouncing back to the opening number and that is where the line currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Villanova has shot the lights out in their three tournament games, so regression has to set in at some point. Kansas has yet to be challenged, and their opponent here is very good. But the Jayhawks have an excellent defense that should prevent the Wildcats from shooting a high percentage once again." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
ABOUT VILLANOVA (32-5, 18-17-1 ATS, 19-16-1 O/U): The Wildcats put on a shooting clinic in their 93-69 victory over Miami (Fla.) in the Sweet 16, connecting on 62.7 percent of their shots from the field, 10-of-15 from the 3-point line and 18-of-19 from the foul line. "If any team is shooting the way we're shooting right now, they'll easily be the most dangerous team in the country," Villanova forward Daniel Ochefu said to reporters after scoring 17 points, joining three of his teammates in double-figures. "But hopefully, we'll keep shooting like that, so we can keep playing the way we are." Fellow senior Ryan Arcidiacono scored 21 points against the Hurricanes and is shooting just over 65 percent from the field (10-of-16 from the arc) in his final NCAA Tournament, while Kris Jenkins is 8-of-11 from long range over the last two games.
ABOUT KANSAS (33-4, 24-11 ATS, 13-21-1 O/U): The Jayhawks defeated the Wildcats in the 2008 Sweet 16 en route to winning the national championship and will have a good chance to top Villanova again if senior Perry Ellis can duplicate his effort against Maryland on Thursday (season high-tying 27 points). Ellis is averaging 23 points in the tournament and leads the team at 17.2 points on the season, but that elusive Final Four is one win away - as Self noted when he said, “This is why (Ellis) came back to school." Kansas desperately needs more production out of its bench, as the Jayhawks reserves combined to shoot 2-of-9 versus the Terrpains and the unit once again will be without sharpshooter Brannen Greene (back spasms).
TRENDS:
* Villanova is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.
* Kansas is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
* Over is 10-2 in Villanova's last 12 games overall.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Kansas' last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing Kansas in the South Region Final, with 62 percent of wagers on the Jayhawks. As for the total, bettors are strongly on the over, with 75 percent of wagers on it.
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Oklahoma vs Oregon
#1 Oregon and #2 Oklahoma will be battling for a spot in the Final Four when the teams meet in Anaheim on Saturday. Oregon is coming off of a very impressive victory on Thursday, defeating Duke 82-68 as 3.0-point favorite. Ducks lead by Dillon Brooks along with four other players in double digits shot 49.2% from the field, 43.5% from outside. Oregon's last trip to the Elite Eight in 2007 was not a pleasant one as Ducks walked off at the wrong end of an 85-77 decision vs. Florida.
Oklahoma advanced to the NCAA West Region final with a 77-63 victory over Aggies as 2.5 point favorite. Jordan Woodard (22), Buddy Hield (17) lead five players in double digits as Sooners knocked down 11 of 25 from 3-point range while shooting 49.2 percent from the field. This marks Oklahoma's third trip to the Elite Eight the past twelve NCAA Tournaments with Sooners getting upended 63-47 by Syracuse in 2003 followed by another defeat in 2009 as North Carolina ended Sooners dream with 72-60 victory.
A few betting nuggets to ponder when handicapping this contest. The Ducks are a money-making 8-2 ATS in their last ten NCAA Tournament games. Oklahoma has played in eight NCAA Tourney games since 2013 covering the spread just twice (2-6 ATS). Favorites have not been a good choice in the Elite Eight. The past three Torney's they're a cash draining 2-5-1 against the betting line, 13-27-1 ATS since 2003.
Villanova vs Kansas
Kansas Jayhawks fresh off a 16 point win over Maryland its 17th consecutive victory (14-3 ATS) will be looking to continue that momentum when they take on Villanova Wildcats which recently clawed Miami 92-69. Jayhawks given the nod opening 2.5 point favorite have a slew of betting trends to overcome. Jayhawks have been money-burning choices in the Elite Eight (2-4 ATS) including 0-3 ATS as a top-seed. Additionally, Jayhawks have failed to cash in 3-of-4 encounters vs Wildcats.
Saturday's Elite 8 Action
By Sportsbook.ag
OKLAHOMA SOONERS (28-7) vs. OREGON DUCKS (31-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oregon -1.5, Total: 153.5
#2 Oklahoma and #1 Oregon will be battling for a spot in the Final Four when the teams meet on Saturday.
Oklahoma played its best game of the tournament on Thursday, defeating #3 Texas A&M 77-63 as a 2.5-point favorite. The Sooners had failed to cover the spread in seven straight games before facing the Aggies, so it’ll be huge for their confidence that they were able to win one convincingly.
Oregon, meanwhile, defeated #4 Duke 82-68 as a 3.5-point favorite last game. The Ducks have won-and-covered in two of their three tournament games and one thing this team has done is take care of the basketball. Oregon has turned the ball over more than 10 times in just one of its past five games. Avoiding mistakes is crucial in this tournament and the Ducks will need to make sure they don’t cough it up too often against the Sooners on Saturday. Oregon is an impressive 11-1 ATS after four straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997.
The Sooners are coming off of an impressive win over the Aggies on Thursday and G Buddy Hield (25.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG) has been outstanding through the first three rounds of this tournament. Hield is averaging 26.7 PPG in the first three games and he is 11-for-27 from the outside so far. If he can get hot against the Ducks then the Sooners just might pull off the upset in this one. He will need help from guys like Gs Isaiah Cousins (12.8 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.5 RPG, 1.4 SPG) and Jordan Woodard (13.0 PPG, 1.6 SPG).
Cousins was awful against Texas A&M last game, finishing with just two points on 1-for-8 shooting from the field. He’ll need to be more efficient against this Ducks team on Saturday. Woodard, meanwhile, had 22 points and five assists against the Aggies on Thursday. He is 9-for-16 from the outside in the tournament and if he can stay hot then it’ll take a lot of pressure off of Hield moving forward.
The Ducks are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now and they are now one win away from surprising a lot of people with a Final Four appearance. If Oregon is going to win then F Dillon Brooks (17.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG) is going to need to catch fire for his team. He’s averaging 23.5 PPG over the past two contests and is 8-for-16 from the outside in those games. He is shooting the ball extremely well and it is opening up the floor for him to drive more.
F Elgin Cook (14.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG) is also playing well for the Ducks lately. He’s averaging 17.0 PPG and 6.5 RPG over the past two games and is a really tough cover. The Sooners often play an undersized lineup, so Brooks and Cook will need to use their size to their advantage.
G Casey Benson (6.0 PPG, 3.1 APG) could be an x-factor in this game. The Ducks will need a guard to step it up in this one and Benson was great against Duke, finishing with 11 points and eight assists.
VILLANOVA WILDCATS (32-5) vs. KANSAS JAYHAWKS (33-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas -2.5, 146.5
#1 Kansas will be going for its 18th straight victory when the team faces #2 Villanova in the Elite Eight on Saturday.
Villanova has been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament, winning its three games by an average of 20.7 PPG. The Wildcats most recently took on #3 Miami and won 92-69 as four-point favorites. They shot 62.7% from the floor in that game and if they continue to play offense like that then it’s hard to imagine them missing out on the Final Four.
The Jayhawks, meanwhile, have now won 17 straight games after defeating #5 Maryland 79-63 as 5.5-point favorites on Thursday. Kansas has won each of its tournament games by double digits and has won-and-covered in 14 of the past 17 games as well. This team is really locked in defensively, as it has now held five of its past six opponents to less than 45% shooting from the field.
These two teams have met just four times since 1997 and they have split victories in those game SU. However, Villanova is 3-1 ATS in those meetings and the Wildcats are also 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Jayhawks won’t be intimidated though, as they are 7-0 ATS when playing away from home on Saturdays this season and 11-2 ATS versus non-conference opponents this season as well.
The Wildcats are coming off of a dominant performance against Miami and G Ryan Arcidiacono (12.3 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG) was brilliant for Villanova in that game. In 35 minutes of action, Arcidiacono finished the game with 21 points on 7-for-11 shooting from the field and 4-for-7 shooting from the outside. He also had three steals on the defensive end. Arcidiacono is a ferocious player on both ends of the floor and he’ll do everything he can to make Kansas’ guards uncomfortable on Saturday.
F Kris Jenkins (13.5 PPG) is also going to need to come out and play a good game on both ends of the floor on Saturday. Jenkins had 21 points, nine boards and four assists against Miami on Thursday. He was on fire in that game, going 8-for-10 from the floor and 5-for-6 from the outside. If he can shoot like that once again on Saturday then the Wildcats may just get themselves into the Final Four.
F Daniel Ochefu (10.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG) is going to be the x-factor in this game, though. Ochefu had 17 points on 7-for-11 shooting against the Hurricanes and that type of offensive performance would really help his team in this one. He will, however, need to dig in defensively on Saturday. The Jayhawks have a number of talented frontcourt players and Ochefu will need to do his best to contain them.
The Jayhawks have been the best team in college basketball all season and they have not skipped a beat in tournament play either. One guy who is playing really well at the moment is F Perry Ellis (17.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG). Ellis had 27 points and five rebounds against Maryland and he also scored 21 points in each of the previous two tournament games. Ellis will need to be on his game on Saturday. He is versatile enough to really give the Wildcats fits in this game.
G Wayne Selden Jr. (13.7 PPG) is also playing well for the Jayhawks right now. Selden Jr. had 19 points, seven boards and six assists against the Terrapins on Thursday. It helps that he is 4-for-10 from the outside, as he has struggled in the tournament in his career but has showed a ton of confidence this year.
One guy that does need to step it up for Kansas is G Devonte’ Graham (11.2 PPG, 1.5 SPG). Graham is averaging just 5.0 PPG through three tournament games and this team will be counting on him to be effective as a scorer later in the tournament.