College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 28

College Basketball Knowledge

Kentucky's last seven wins are all by 13+ points; they hold opponents to 26.7% on arc, their defensive eFG% is 38.9%, #1 in country. Wildcats are 2-0 vs ACC teams this season, beating North Carolina by 14, Louisville by 8. Notre Dame has #1 offensive eFG% in nation (58.5%), making 39.2% on arc, 58.4% inside it; Fighting Irish won last eight games; their non-ACC schedule has been 6th-easiest in country. ACC teams are 9-10 vs spread this postseason, 4-1 as underdogs; Kentucky is 1-2 vs spread in NCAA tournament; no sense grouping them in with rest of SEC teams. Since '09, 1-seeds are 5-8 vs spread in regional finals.

Wisconsin (+3.5) beat Arizona 64-63 in OT in this game LY, exact same scenario as this one; Sean Miller is 0-3 in regional finals, but Arizona won its last 14 games overall- they beat Michigan by 27 in only game against Big 14 team this year. Badgers won last nine games, beating Oregon by 7 last weekend. Big 14 teams are 6-8 vs spread this postseason, 2-4 as an underdog. Pac-12 teams are 9-6 vs spread, 5-4 when favored. You look at regional finals between 1-2 seeds: since 2003, 2-seeds are 10-4 SU against 1-seeds in regional finals. In West Region finals, underdogs are 14-3 vs the spread the last 17 years.

CIT Tournament

NJIT is an independent that is playing 10th straight home game, winning last three D-1 games- they scored 82 ppg in winning first two games in this tournament, beating UNH/Cleveland State. Canisius won six of last eight games, scoring 84.5 ppg in beating Dartmouth, Bowling Green in first two games of this tournament- they won last three true road games. MAAC teams are 3-2 vs spread this postseason, 2-1 as an underdog.

Armadillosports.com

NCAA Tournament Biggest Betting Mismatches: Elite Eight
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-11, 136)

Irish’s short bench vs. Wildcats’ talent surplus

Even when Kentucky wasn’t playing its best this season, it would prevail simply because it had more talent to choose from. So if one of its starters was having an off night, a reserve would step up. John Calipari goes deep - like “fish with lights on their head” deep – down his bench and has eight players averaging more than 20 minutes of floor time per game. It’s like a relentless tide of talent, with wave after wave of 5-star recruit smashing the ball in your face.

Notre Dame doesn’t have quite as deep a talent pool. And by pool, we mean puddle. Mike Brey runs a seven-man rotation with four players racking up 32 or more minutes per game. The Irish not only are outgunned in this matchup but not having a reliable bench to turn to is A: Rough when making adjustments and B: Rough in a tournament format on short rest against a Kentucky team that presses the tempo.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 133.5)

Wildcats’ so-so shooting vs. Badgers’ battling bigs

All the attention in this NCAA rematch will be on how Arizona’s frontcourt will handle Wisconsin big Frank Kaminsky, who stomped all over the Wildcats with 28 points in last year’s Elite Eight. Arizona has the talent to tie up Frank “The Tank” and made some good adjustments on Xavier’s “Stain Train” Matt Stainbrook in the second half of Thursday’s win. So, with the heavyweights trading blows in the paint, it leaves the game to be decided on the perimeter where Arizona just hasn’t been that great.

The Wildcats have shot 14 for 41 (34 percent) in their last two games, including just 7 for 22 against the Musketeers’ pesky 1-3-1 zone. Arizona doesn’t actually try many from deep, averaging only 5.2 makes from beyond the arc per game – second lowest of all Sweet 16 programs. North Carolina put in work from distance against the Badgers, hitting eight 3-pointers, as did Oregon in their loss to Wisconsin in the Round of 32. Hell, even Coastal Carolina went 7 of 12 from range in the Round of 64. Does Arizona have the chops from downtown to do the same damage?

Saturday's NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 134)

If it feels like Wisconsin and Arizona just played each other for a berth in the Final Four, it's because they did. The Badgers and Wildcats meet in the Elite Eight for the second straight year Saturday when they face off in Los Angeles in the West Regional final. Frank Kaminsky scored 28 points - six in overtime - and added 11 rebounds as Wisconsin won last year's matchup 64-63 to lift the Badgers to their first Final Four since 2000.

That Wisconsin team was seeded No. 2 while this year's top-seeded Badgers return many of the same faces, including Kaminsky - the potential National Player of the Year - and versatile forwards Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes. Arizona was the No. 1 seed a year ago, while the current crop of second-seeded Wildcats is led by a new face in freshman swingman Stanley Johnson, who is surrounded by a familiar group of veterans. Arizona has not been to the Final Four since 2001, losing each of its last four trips by a total of seven points.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Wisconsin between +1 and +2, with a total of 134.

ABOUT ARIZONA (34-3 SU, 23-14 ATS, 16-21 O/U): The Wildcats carry a 14-game winning streak into Saturday as they look to build off Thursday's 68-60 triumph versus Xavier in which T.J. McConnell posted 17 points and Kaleb Tarczewski added 12 points and 12 rebounds. "The next step is a big one," Arizona coach Sean Miller said after his team shot 17-of-19 from the foul line while committing only eight turnovers. "The fact that we're playing Wisconsin ... it's almost as if we had a summer to think about it, and we have to somehow make that to our advantage." The Wildcats could benefit from more production from Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who is 4-of-16 from the field over the last two games and managed only two rebounds against Xavier after averaging 10.3 boards in the previous four contests.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (34-3 SU, 19-17-1 ATS, 17-20 O/U): The Badgers outlasted North Carolina 79-72 on Thursday as Dekker scored a career-high 23 points and grabbed 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Kaminsky contributed 19 points and averages team highs of 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds for a Wisconsin team that has scored at least 70 points in eight straight games. "These guys have been through a lot. They've seen the good runs. They've seen the bad runs," Badgers coach Bo Ryan said to the media. "But this group never gets discouraged to the point where they get down on themselves or their teammates, and that's what's fun."

TRENDS:

*Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
*Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
*Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 neutral site games.
*Under is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 Saturday games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Per Covers Consensus, 62 percent of wagers are on the Badgers.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-11.5, 137)

If Kentucky didn't make a big enough statement during the first 4 1/2 months of the season, Thursday's performance put Notre Dame - and the rest of the NCAA Tournament field - on high alert. The top-seeded and undefeated Wildcats are coming off one of the most impressive wins in recent NCAA Tournament history and hope to follow up that performance when they face the Fighting Irish in Saturday's Midwest Regional final from Cleveland. The winner of this game heads to the Final Four - a concept that is much more familiar for the Wildcats than the Irish.

Kentucky went to the Final Four in 2011, won the NCAA Tournament in 2012 and finished as the national runner-up in 2014, while Notre Dame has not reached the Final Four since 1978. The third-seeded Irish shot 75 percent in the second half in Thursday's 81-70 victory over Wichita State - their eighth straight win. The Wildcats, of course, have won every game they have played since losing to Connecticut in last year's title game, but few of those wins have been more impressive than Thursday's 78-39 rout of West Virginia.

LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened at 11-point favorites before quickly moving to 11.5. The opening total of 137 has yet to move.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (32-5 SU, 16-13 ATS, 14-13 O/U): The Irish placed four players in double figures on Thursday, led by Zach Auguste (20 points), while All-American candidate Jerian Grant chipped in nine points and 11 assists. Notre Dame is the second-best shooting team in the nation (51 percent), while five players on the team - paced by Pat Connaughton (92) - have drained at least 40 3-pointers. "I'm sure whenever it ends I'll be able to look back and (say) it's been an amazing season for us," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told reporters, adding "I don't know if we've had a more special season in the history of our basketball program."

ABOUT KENTUCKY (37-0 SU, 19-16-2 ATS, 15-22 O/U): The Wildcats became the first team to ever double-up an opponent this late in the NCAA Tournament, while their 39-point margin of victory matched a Sweet 16 record and their 39 points allowed marked the fewest given up in the Sweet 16 since 1975. Trey Lyles (14 points) and Andrew Harrison (13) led five players in double figures for Kentucky, which limited West Virginia to 24.1 percent shooting. "They were what I thought they were," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told reporters. "That's the best defensive team I think that I've ever coached against. And when they're making shots, there's nobody going to beat them."

TRENDS:

*Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
*Wildcats are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.
*Under is 13-3-1 in Fighting Irish last 17 NCAA Tournament games.
*Favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of Covers Consensus players are on the underdog Fighting Irish.

Saturday's Elite Eight Tips
March 27, 2015
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Wisconsin

Venue: Staples Center
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: Arizona -1½, Total: 133½

Wisconsin is playing in its second rematch in this March’s tournament, as the Badgers knocked out Oregon in the round of 32 for the second straight season. Now, Bo Ryan’s club hooks up with Arizona for the right to advance to the Final Four once again, facing a Wildcats’ team that looks to avenge a 64-63 overtime setback to Wisconsin nearly a year ago to the day.

In that victory by the Badgers (also played in Southern California at Anaheim’s Honda Center), Wisconsin erased an early eight-point deficit in the first half, while taking a five-point lead with 13 minutes remaining in regulation. The Badgers and Wildcats went back and forth towards the end of regulation as the two teams were tied at 54-54 after 40 minutes. Frank Kaminsky scored six of his game-high 28 points in overtime to lift the Badgers to their first Final Four since 2000, while Arizona was denied its first Final Four appearance since 2001.

The Wildcats are riding a 14-game winning streak, as Sean Miller’s squad scratched and clawed past a solid Xavier club in a 68-60 victory in Thursday’s Sweet 16 showdown. Arizona failed to cash as 11½-point favorites, as it never came close to covering that heavy number as Xavier trailed by just four points with 5:30 remaining in regulation. The Wildcats knocked down its last 17 free throw attempts, including four in the final minute for the eight-point final margin. Following a 13-2 ATS run from mid-January through the opener of the Pac-12 tournament, UA has compiled a 2-3 ATS record the past five games, while the Wildcats own a 2-5 ATS mark in the past seven NCAA tournament contests.

Wisconsin won its ninth consecutive game in Thursday’s 79-72 victory over North Carolina, barely covering as six-point favorites. The Tar Heels led by four points (60-56) with seven minutes remaining in regulation, but a 9-0 run by the Badgers put them in front for good, while UW converted all eight free throw attempts in the final minute to clinch the cover. Both teams shot exactly 26-of-56 from the floor, as Kaminsky paced the Badgers with a 23-point, 10-rebound effort.

The Badgers are listed as an underdog for the first time this season, while last receiving points in the Final Four last March against Kentucky in a 74-73 loss as one-point ‘dogs. In last season’s matchup against Arizona, Wisconsin closed as 3½-point underdogs in the one-point triumph. Following an 0-4 ATS run to close out February, the Badgers have covered five of the previous eight games with three ATS losses coming as favorites of 12 points or more.

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Kentucky

Venue: Quicken Loans Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH
Betting Odds: Kentucky -11, Total: 136

John Calipari’s loaded squad put together its most impressive effort of the tournament in Thursday’s 78-39 blowout of West Virginia as 13½-point favorites. Kentucky jumped out to an 18-2 advantage, as the Wildcats scored more points in the first half (44) than the Mountaineers did in the entire contest (39), while WVU was limited to a horrid 24% shooting from the floor. UK covered for the first time in three tournament wins, as the ‘Cats improved to 8-2-2 ATS in the past 12 tries as a double-digit favorite.

Notre Dame struggled to put away Northeastern and Butler in its first two tournament victories, failing to cover each time. However, the Irish started hot against Wichita State in Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup and dominated the Shockers in an 81-70 triumph as two-point underdogs to advance to their first Elite Eight since 1978. Notre Dame knocked down 55% of its shots from the floor, as guards Demetrius Jackson and Pat Connaughton combined to shoot 14-of-22 for 36 points.

Following the blowout of Wichita State, Mike Brey’s club improved to 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season, which includes outright victories over North Carolina twice, Duke twice, and Louisville. Since 2010, the Irish has failed to cover seven of the past eight tournament contests, with the lone ATS win coming on Thursday night. Notre Dame has been a solid team to back after scoring at least 80 points, owning a 10-1 SU mark since mid-December.

Kentucky continues to be listed as a heavy favorite, but the Wildcats have been most profitable as a favorite of 13 points or less by putting together a 9-5 ATS record. The ‘Cats took care of business against both ACC foes on its schedule, cruising past North Carolina (84-70) and Louisville (58-50), while covering each time. Over the last two tournaments, UK has covered five of nine games, which includes one push and failing to cash against Hampton as 34-point favorites in the second round.

These teams last met in December 2012 in South Bend as the Irish ripped up the Wildcats, 64-50 as 1½-point favorites, the season following Kentucky’s first national title under Calipari. Notre Dame knocked Kentucky out of the NIT in 2009 with a 77-67 victory, as the Irish and Wildcats last met in the NCAA tournament back in 1970.

ELITE-8 Betting Trends - March 28, 2015 Carlo Campanella
By Carlo Campanella
Sportspic.com

March Madness continues this weekend as Wisconsin, Arizona, Duke, Louisville, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Michigan State & Notre Dame advancing to the Elite 8 round. With 8 teams remaining, we still have 3 of our 4 #1 seeds alive (Kentucky, Wisconsin & Duke), along with 2 of the 4 #2 seeds (Arizona & Gonzaga). Our highest remaining seed is #7 Michigan State, who faces the second-highest remaining seed, #4 Louisville.

#1 Kentucky vs #3 Notre Dame
Kentucky 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 Elite 8 games
Kentucky beat Michigan 75-72 last year (2014) as -2.5 point favorites in Elite 8
Kentucky 7-1 Over/Under in the Elite 8 from 1996-2014 games
Notre Dame has never played in the Elite 8

#1 Wisconsin vs #2 Arizona
Wisconsin 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in Elite 8 games
Wisconsin 2-1 Over/Under in Elite 8 games
Wisconsin beat Arizona 64-63 last year (2014) as +3.5 point Dogs in Elite 8
Arizona 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in last 4 Elite 8 games
Arizona 1-3 Over/Under in last 4 Elite 8 games

#4 Louisville vs #7 Michigan State
MSU is 3-1 SU & ATS last 4 Elite 8 games
MSU 2-2 Over/Under last 4 Elite 8 games
MSU lost last year (2014) to U Conn 60-54 as +5 point Dogs in Elite 8
Lousiville 2-0 SU & ATS last 2 Elite 8 games
Louisville 4-1 Over/Under in Elite 8 games
Louisville beat Duke 85-63 in Elite 8 in 2013

#1 Duke vs #2 Gonzaga
Duke 4-1 SU & 2-3 ATS last 5 Elite 8 games
Duke lost in 2013 to Louisville in last Elite 8 game
Duke 4-2 Over/Under last 6 Elite 8 games
Gonzaga made only Elite 8 appearance in 1999, losing 67-62 to U Conn