Sunday's Best NCAAB Bets
By Covers.com
Murray State Racers at Memphis Tigers
Memphis is already battle-tested heading into Sunday’s home game against Murray State. And that could be a good thing because the Tigers are likely in for another tough one against the Racers, who are 9-0 and on the brink of the Top 25.
Two straight overtime games in mid-November saw Memphis edge Tennessee 99-97 in OT before falling to Georgetown 91-88 in OT one day later. The Tigers are coming off arguably their best performance of the season, during which they needed just 40 minutes to win 71-54 at Miami (FL) on Tuesday.
“We have to make sure we limit their runs,” Murray State head coach Steve Prohm said of the Tigers. “They get a lot of easy baskets in transition. We have to make sure we don't let them score off of turnovers. Shot selection will be key, but we aren't going to go down there and be passive at all. That doesn't mean we won't play fast. We want to be disciplined and make good decisions.
“If we're going to turn the ball over we need to throw it the stands not throw it from me to you and have them get a deflection and get an easy basket. We need to make them score against our defense.”
Even the opposing coach knows Memphis is going to score. The only question is in how many different ways the Tigers are going to do it.
Pick: Memphis
Coppin State Eagles at Illinois Fighting Illini
Coppin State sure isn’t shying away from tough competition during its non-conference schedule. The Eagles have not won any of their big games, but they have tested themselves against Oklahoma, Connecticut, and Purdue.
Next up for Coppin State is another formidable foe in 9-0 Illinois. The Fighting Illini haven’t even played as difficult a schedule as the Eagles, but they just recently picked up the pace with a 71-62 win at Maryland on November 29 and an 82-75 home victory over Gonzaga last Saturday.
The Eagles have experience going up against bigger teams, and this time they will have to do it quite literally.
Illini center Meyers Leonard (7’1’’, 265 pounds) has already played almost as many minutes through nine games as he logged all of last season. He was recently named Big 10 Co-Player of the Week thanks to his performances against the Terps (12 points, six rebounds, three blocks) and Zags (21 points, six rebounds).
“He's just kind of at the beginning of what seems to be a skyrocketing career,” ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb said of Leonard. “I like him a lot. I thought Gonzaga was a pretty good litmus test of where he is because he was going against legit size. You can see the improvement almost game by game.”
Pick: Illinois
NCAAB Preview
Southern Illinois is 1-4, with only win over #344 Chicago State; Salukis are shooting just 22.9% behind arc, 38.6% inside it- they lost their only road game by 7 at Northeastern. Western Michigan is 0-7 vs D-I teams, playing the #4 schedule in country, with none of their opponents ranked under #150 (SIU is #247). MAC single digit home favorites are 6-1-1 vs spread; MVC single digit toad underdogs are 10-8.
Washington State is 3-0 at home, winning by 11-32-26 points; Coogs are 5-4, allowing 50 ppg during current 3-game win streak. Santa Clara won four of last five games, but hasn't played in eight days- they lost by 33 at UCSB in their only true road game. Pac-12 single digit home favorites are 4-11 vs spread; WCC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 7-10 vs spread. Coogs won by 6 in OT at Santa Clara in LY's meeting.
New Mexico State (-10) beat UTEP 89-73 in first meeting, making 9-18 from arc and grabbing 21 offensive rebounds; State lost three of its last four games, and are 2-6 in last eight visits here, with only wins by 6-7 points. Miners are least experienced team in country; this is their first game in 13 days- they allowed 47 ppg in splitting pair of home games. C-USA teams are 9-18-1 vs spread if number is 5 or less points, 4-5 at home. WAC road favorites are 5-3 vs spread.
Detroit got big man Holman back, which helps them a lot; they won last two games, scoring 92 points in last game, Holman's first this year, but Alabama will be smarting after losing last two games to Georgetown by 2, Dayton by 12. Titans are 0-3 on road, losing by 6-6-5 points. Bama Horizon road favorites of 13+ points are 5-3-1 vs spread; SEC double digit home favorites are 8-15-1 against the spread.
UC-Davis is 0-7 vs D-I teams despite shooting 37.9% behind arc, losing two road games by 15-20 points; three of Aggies' last four losses are by 20+ points. Hawai'i is 2-4, with both wins vs Big West opponents; next year, Hawai'i will be Big West team too. Warriors are 0-3 if they score less than 75 points. WAC home favorites of 9+ points are 4-1 vs spread. Big West road underdogs of 15 or less points are 9-11.
Tulane is 10-1 playing worst schedule of 345 D-I teams in USA; Green Wave are playing 9th game against team ranked below #200, plus couple non-D-I games they had. Jacksonville State is 2-5 vs D-I teams, with no wins against teams in top 300. Gamecocks are 0-4 on road, losing by 14-14-5-2 points. OVC road underdogs of 16+ points are 8-6 vs spread; C-USA home favorites are 7-12, 3-4 if spread was double digits.
Florida State is bully team, 6-0 vs teams not ranked in top 125, with all six wins by 13+ points; FSU forces turnovers on 24.3% of opponents' possessions, but they're turning ball over 26% of time themselves. Not good. NC-Greensboro lost its two games vs top 100 teams, losing by 41-22 points to Georgetown/MTSU. ACC home favorites of 20+ points are 4-1; Southern Conference road underdogs of 13+ points are 5-8.
Montana State is 3-3 vs D-I teams, beating three lowest teams they've faced by 6-7-4 points; Bobcats lost by 11 at Riverside in LY's meeting. Cal-Riverside hasn't played in 11 days; they've lost five of their last six games, but lost in OT to Youngstown/BC while beating Washington St. Big Sky home favorites are 3-5 vs spread; Big West road underdogs of 8 or less points are 6-2 vs spread. Riverside scored 45 ppg in losing first two road games, by 11-4 points.
Murray State is 9-0 but played three non-D-I teams; Racers are ranked 6th in 3-point shooting (44.8%), 4th from foul line (81.1%); they've got two top 100 wins (So Miss/Dayton) so step up here against Memphis squad that is already playing 5th game vs top 70 teams-- four of their five wins are by 16+ points. C-USA home favorites are 7-12, 3-4 if spread was double digits; OVC double digit road underdogs are 14-12.
Eastern Washington is 4-3, but all three losses were to top 100 teams; their wins are by 9-17-20-7 points. Eagles are putting opponents on foul line more than anyone in country. Cal State-Fullerton is 4-3 vs D-I teams, but lost by 15 to Wichita State in its only game vs team ranked above #214; Titans are turning ball over 26.5% of time (331st). Big West home faves are 7-3 vs spread; Big Sky road dogs of 7 or less are 6-4.
Iona won its last seven games; they're playing 4th road game in last ten days, and their next four games after this are also on road; Gaels are #15 team in offense efficiency, #8 in experience- their three games with top 100 teams were decided by 1-5-2 points. Marshall lost its last two tilts, by 2 at Ohio, by 6 at Syracuse. MAAC road dogs of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread; C-USA home favorites of 8 or less points are 3-7.
S ILLINOIS (1 - 4) at W MICHIGAN (1 - 7) - 12/11/2011, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ILLINOIS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
S ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
S ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SANTA CLARA (5 - 2) at WASHINGTON ST (5 - 4) - 12/11/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SANTA CLARA is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
SANTA CLARA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-0 straight up against SANTA CLARA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW MEXICO ST (5 - 3) at UTEP (1 - 4) - 12/11/2011, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 3-2 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons
UTEP is 3-2 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (5 - 6) at ALABAMA (7 - 2) - 12/11/2011, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CAL DAVIS (1 - 7) at HAWAII (2 - 4) - 12/11/2011, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAL DAVIS is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAL DAVIS is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAWAII is 1-0 against the spread versus CAL DAVIS over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 1-0 straight up against CAL DAVIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE ST (2 - 6) at TULANE (9 - 1) - 12/11/2011, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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UNC-GREENSBORO (2 - 7) at FLORIDA ST (6 - 3) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNC-GREENSBORO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against ACC opponents since 1997.
UNC-GREENSBORO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
UNC-GREENSBORO is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus UNC-GREENSBORO over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against UNC-GREENSBORO over the last 3 seasons
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UC-RIVERSIDE (2 - 5) at MONTANA ST (5 - 3) - 12/11/2011, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTANA ST is 63-42 ATS (+16.8 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
UC-RIVERSIDE is 1-0 against the spread versus MONTANA ST over the last 3 seasons
UC-RIVERSIDE is 1-0 straight up against MONTANA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MURRAY ST (9 - 0) at MEMPHIS (5 - 2) - 12/11/2011, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
MURRAY ST is 49-84 ATS (-43.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 177-133 ATS (+30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 26-40 ATS (-18.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 26-40 ATS (-18.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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E WASHINGTON (5 - 3) at CS-FULLERTON (5 - 3) - 12/11/2011, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E WASHINGTON is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in December games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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IONA (7 - 1) at MARSHALL (5 - 2) - 12/11/2011, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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COPPIN ST (3 - 4) at ILLINOIS (9 - 0) - 12/11/2011, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
FAIRFIELD vs. NEW HAMPSHIRE
Fairfield is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games on the road
No trends available
UNC GREENSBORO vs. FLORIDA STATE
UNC Greensboro is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 6 games
Florida State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Illinois's last 7 games on the road
Southern Illinois is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Western Michigan is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
Western Michigan is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
FLORIDA A&M vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
No trends available
South Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NORTH FLORIDA vs. KANSAS STATE
No trends available
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Kansas State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
USC UPSTATE vs. DAYTON
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dayton's last 6 games
Dayton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
IONA vs. MARSHALL
Iona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Iona's last 13 games on the road
Marshall is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Marshall is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina State's last 5 games
North Carolina State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
UC RIVERSIDE vs. MONTANA STATE
UC Riverside is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of UC Riverside's last 8 games on the road
Montana State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Montana State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
JACKSONVILLE vs. FURMAN
No trends available
Furman is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Furman is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
SANTA CLARA vs. WASHINGTON STATE
Santa Clara is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington State is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
NORFOLK STATE vs. VIRGINIA TECH
No trends available
Virginia Tech is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Virginia Tech is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
ALCORN STATE vs. SOUTH ALABAMA
No trends available
South Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Alcorn State
South Alabama is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
STONY BROOK vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
No trends available
Boston College is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Boston College is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
NEW MEXICO STATE vs. TEXAS EL PASO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico State's last 6 games on the road
New Mexico State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Texas El Paso
Texas El Paso is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing New Mexico State
Texas El Paso is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New Mexico State
JACKSON STATE vs. CALIFORNIA
No trends available
California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
California is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida International's last 6 games on the road
Florida International is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
No trends available
IDAHO vs. SEATTLE
Idaho is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Idaho's last 9 games on the road
No trends available
MURRAY STATE vs. MEMPHIS
Murray State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
DETROIT vs. ALABAMA
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
Alabama is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Alabama is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
EASTERN WASHINGTON vs. CS FULLERTON
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Eastern Washington's last 9 games on the road
Eastern Washington is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
CS Fullerton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
JACKSONVILLE STATE vs. TULANE
Jacksonville State is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
Tulane9-1-1 SU in its last 11 games
Tulane9-0-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
COPPIN STATE vs. ILLINOIS
No trends available
Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
UC DAVIS vs. HAWAII
UC Davis is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Hawaii is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home