Sunday's Best NCAAB Bets
By Covers.com
Long Beach State 49ers vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Long Beach State has played the toughest schedule in the nation thus far, and the 49ers will further test themselves on Christmas in the final of Honolulu's Diamond Head Classic.
Kansas State certainly qualifies as a difficult opponent. The Wildcats are 9-1 and their only loss came to West Virginia in double overtime on December 8. So far in this tournament they have disposed of both Southern Illinois and UTEP without too much trouble.
Freshman guard Angel Rodriguez is heating up for Kansas State. Rodriguez scored a game-high 16 points against UTEP in Friday's semifinals, including 11 in the second half. He also dropped 17 on Southern Illinois and scored 13 in a victory over Alabama last Saturday.
“I gained a little bit of confidence, and every day in practice and in games it keeps growing and growing and growing,” Rodriguez said. “Finally, today I felt like I was playing how I play. Before, I didn’t have much confidence. I felt kind of stuck, scared to take a shot, scared to make a pass, scared to make a mistake. But as time went on my confidence grew a lot.”
Long Beach State has experience going up against the big boys, but they may not have enough if Rodriguez keeps this up.
Pick: Kansas State
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Xavier Musketeers
Xavier entered the Diamond Head Classic as the No. 15 team in the nation, so it probably did not expect itself to be playing in the seventh-place game on Christmas.
Mainly because of the ugly brawl earlier this month against Cincinnati, however, that's exactly where the Musketeers find themselves. They are 0-3 since the melee, including 0-2 so far in Honolulu. Their first two post-fight setbacks came by double-digits and they lost to Hawaii in overtime on Friday.
"We struggled defensively in the second half," head coach Chris Mack said after losing to the Warriors. "We're struggling offensively. We got some open looks we didn't knock down. This was as disappointing a game for as long as I've been around."
The Salukis are struggling, too, but they did well to extend Clemson to overtime on Friday. Forward Mamadou Seck scored 18 points against the Tigers.
Pick: Southern Illinois
S ILLINOIS (3 - 7) vs. XAVIER (8 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
S ILLINOIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CLEMSON (7 - 5) at HAWAII (6 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
UTEP (5 - 6) vs. AUBURN (8 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.
UTEP is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LONG BEACH ST (7 - 5) vs. KANSAS (8 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
LONG BEACH ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
LONG BEACH ST is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
LONG BEACH ST is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 1-0 straight up against LONG BEACH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. XAVIER
No trends available
Xavier is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Xavier is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
CLEMSON vs. HAWAII
Clemson is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Clemson's last 7 games on the road
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
TEXAS EL PASO vs. AUBURN
No trends available
Auburn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LONG BEACH STATE vs. KANSAS STATE
No trends available
Kansas State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
NCAAB Preview
All eight teams in Diamond Head are playing third game in four days.
Xavier is 0-3 since getting players suspended after the Cincinnati game, but they do have starting guards back here; they blew 11-point halftime lead in OT loss to host Hawai'i Friday. Musketeers are 3-1 vs teams not in the top 150, winning by 11-23-6 points, but they're still thin inside. 3-7 Southern Illinois was outscored 26-11 on line in Friday's OT loss to Clemson; Tigers scored 21 points in 5:00 OT. Salukis are 0-3 vs teams in top 100, losing by 19-25-8 points.
7-5 Clemson needed OT to beat a bad Southern Illinois team Friday, as Tigers' bench combined to go 1-10 from floor in 50+ minutes of action. Clemson is 2-1 in true road games, winning at Citadel/Iowa, losing by 16 at Arizona; Tigers are 6-0 vs teams not in top 200, with all six wins by 8+ points. Hawai'i split pair of tough games this week, beating Xavier in OT after losing at buzzer to Auburn; Warriors turn ball over 23.6% of time, which could be problem against Xavier's terrific backcourt.
8-2 Auburn's only losses are to teams in top 60, when they were held to 59-43 points; take away Sullivan, and Tigers shot 7-41 in semifinal loss to Long Beach. #140 UTEP is coached by Floyd, who replaced Barbee when he jumped to Auburn. Miners are 2nd-youngest team in country, so not many of them played for Barbee. UTEP lost tough 78-70 game to K-State in semifinals; they were -15 on boards. Improving Miners have won three of their five games against teams not in the top 150.
9-1 Kansas State rebounds 41.3% of its own misses, #7 team in nation on offensive boards; they were +15 on boards in semifinal win. Wildcats have only one senior in rotation; they're 2-1 vs top 40 teams, losing in double OT to West Virginia, beating Va Tech/Alabama. Long Beach has #2 experienced team in country playing #3 schedule; this is already their 7th game against team in top 60. 49ers have five seniors and a junior in their 8-man rotation.