Big Ten Tournament: Championship Preview and Pick
By Covers.com
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans (+1.5, 128.5)
THE STORY: Last week, Ohio State visited Breslin Center and came away with a 72-70 victory over Michigan State, denying the Spartans their chance at claiming an outright Big Ten regular season championship. This time, on a neutral floor, the third-seeded Buckeyes will try to prevent them from winning the conference tournament title. Top-seeded Michigan State hasn’t won the Big Ten tournament since 2000, the same year it won the national championship. Ohio State, meanwhile, has won back-to-back conference crowns and could become the first team to win three straight in the event’s 15-year history.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (27-6): Jared Sullinger had a game-high 24 points in the Buckeyes’ 77-55 semifinal victory over No. 2 seed Michigan. Ohio State took a 34-21 lead at the half and clamped down defensively in the second half, holding the Wolverines to just 30 percent shooting and forcing them into 18 turnovers. The Buckeyes, who split the season series with Michigan State, have won four straight games and have won their two conference tournament games by a combined 39 points. Ohio State is 4-3 all-time in Big Ten title games.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (26-7): After suffering a two-game losing streak to close out the regular season, Michigan State has responded with two easy wins in the conference tournament, defeating Iowa by 17 and Wisconsin by 13. The Spartans smothered the Badgers defensively in the semifinals, holding them to just 32 points over the game’s final 30 minutes. In the most recent meeting against the Buckeyes, Michigan State blew a 15-point first-half lead. The Spartans haven’t met Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament since 2009, an 82-70 loss in the semifinals.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
TIP-INS
1. This will mark Ohio State’s fifth Big Ten title game appearance in the last six years.
2. Ohio State is 4-1 against the Spartans in the last five meetings.
3. Draymond Green has had a double double in three straight games, including a 14-point, 16-rebound effort against Wisconsin.
Pick: Michigan State +1.5
SEC Tournament: Championship Preview and Pick
By Covers.com
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-6.5, 139)
THE STORY: Twice this season, the Commodores have pushed the top-ranked Wildcats in the final minutes before losing. Vanderbilt hopes the third time is the charm, when the Commodores make their first SEC championship game appearance in 61 years. Vanderbilt pulled away from Mississippi in the semifinals, setting up a third meeting with Kentucky. The Wildcats edged Vanderbilt by six points in Nashville and nine points in Lexington last month. Kentucky rides a 24-game winning streak into the title game after a semifinal victory over Florida, and is one victory away from its 28th SEC tournament title. The Wildcats are all but assured of being a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament regardless of Sunday’s outcome.
ABOUT VANDERBILT (23-10): John Jenkins, the SEC’s leading scorer this season (19.9), hit five 3-pointers against Mississippi and scored 23 points despite missing his first five shots. A big area of concern for the third-seeded Commodores is Jeffery Taylor’s scoring slump. The SEC’s second-leading scorer (16.8) has just eight points in two tournament games. Vanderbilt has won six of its past eight games. Lance Goulbourne pulled down 12 rebounds in the semifinals,but Goulbourne and Festus Ezeli will face a big challenge against the Wildcats’ athletic frontcourt.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (32-1): Some have questioned how Kentucky would react in close games. The Wildcats won by an average of nearly 19 points in the regular season, and survived close games with LSU and Florida in their first two postseason contests. Freshman Anthony Davis scored 15 points with 12 rebounds in Saturday’s narrow 74-71 victory over No. 19 Florida. Just as critical was the pair of free throws from Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague in the final 15 seconds to secure the victory.
TRENDS:
* Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Commodores' last seven overall.
* Under is 21-8-1 in Wildcats' last 30 neutral site games.
TIP-INS:
1. Vanderbilt’s only SEC tournament title came in 1951, with a 61-57 victory over Kentucky in Louisville.
2. The Wildcats are 119-22 all-time in SEC tournament games, and have won 46 of their past 54 SEC tournament contests.
3. Davis averaged 21.5 points and 9.5 rebounds against the Commodores this season. Jenkins averaged 16.5 points against the Wildcats.
Pick: Vanderbilt +6.5
ACC Tournament Final: FSU-UNC Preview and Pick
By Covers.com
Florida State vs. North Carolina (-6, 142.5)
THE STORY: With a shocking 33-point rout of North Carolina in mid-January, Florida State sent a message to the rest of the ACC: It is tired of being called the conference’s third best team. The No. 3 seeded Seminoles will try to end that sentiment by knocking off the top-seeded Tar Heels again in the ACC championship game. It would be the first tournament title for No. 17 Florida State, which is 3-1 against North Carolina and Duke – the two two perennial powerhouses from Tobacco Road – this season. The Seminoles handed No. 4 North Carolina its worst loss of the Roy Williams’ era – a 90-57 rout in Tallahassee on Jan. 14. Deividas Dulkys hit 8 of 10 3-pointers and finished with a career-high 32 points. Florida State has won three of the last five meetings after losing 10 straight to North Carolina.
ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (23-9): The Seminoles are back in the ACC title game for the second time in four years, but are hoping for a different outcome. Florida State lost to Duke 79-69 in the 2009 final. On Saturday, the Seminoles dispatched of the No. 6 Blue Devils, 62-59, behind 16 points from Michael Snaer, whose 3-pointer with just over three minutes left gave them the lead for good. Snaer, not Dulkys, is the shooter the Tar Heels need to worry about this time. The junior has averaged 19.7 points over the last three games, and has connected on 10 of 14 3-pointers in that span. He scored 17 points in the win over North Carolina.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (29-4): North Carolina will likely secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament if it can win its 18th ACC tournament title, and first since 2008. That will be a difficult chore if ACC Defensive Player of the Year John Henson (wrist), who averages 10.1 rebounds and 2.9 blocks, is out for a second straight game. He is questionable to play. The Tar Heels posted a controversial 69-67 win over North Carolina State without Henson on Saturday. Point guard Kendall Marshall hit a go-ahead bank shot with 10 seconds left on a play that could have been called a charge. Tyler Zeller, the ACC Player of the Year, had 23 points and nine rebounds in the win. Zeller recorded 14 points and 14 rebounds in the first meeting.
TIP-INS:
1. Dulkys is averaging only 5.7 points since his outburst against the Tar Heels.
2. Marshall, who set the ACC single-season assist record, had a season-low four assists and seven turnovers in the first meeting with the Seminoles.
3. “We can’t think about that game and try to use that game to go out and win. It’s North Carolina, it’s not going to be that easy.” - Snaer, on Florida State's rout of the Tar Heels affecting their mindset for this game.
Pick: Florida State +6
SEC Championship
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in back-to-backs win at the 2012 SEC Tournament in New Orleans, but the Wildcats have nonetheless advanced to the finals where they will take on Vanderbilt Sunday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
As of Saturday night, most books were listing Kentucky (32-1 straight up, 12-19-1 against the spread) as a 6 1/2-point favorite with a total of 139.
Vanderbilt (23-10 SU, 16-13 ATS) advanced to the finals with Saturday's 65-53 win over Ole Miss as a seven-point 'chalk.' John Jenkins scored a game-high 23 points thanks to five 3-pointers, while Brad Tinsley added 12 points. Lance Goulborne had a double-double with 10 points and 12 rebounds.
On Friday night, Kevin Stallings' squad dismantled Georgia by a 63-41 count as a 7 1/2-point favorite. Jenkins and Tinsley scored 15 and 12 points, respectively, while Festus Ezeli and Goulborne added 10 points apiece.
UK was sloppy in Friday's 60-51 victory over LSU that was closer than the final score indicated. The 'Cats never threatened to take the cash as 17-point favorites. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist led the winners with 19 points and nine rebounds. Terrence Jones scored 15 points and pulled down 11 boards, while Anthony Davis finished with 12 points, 14 rebounds and six blocked shots.
UK's lackluster play carried over to Saturday's semifinals matchup against Florida. The Gators took control early and led for the first 19-plus minutes, stretching the advantage to 31-21 at the 8:45 mark. Bradley Beal and Erik Murphy were fearlessly attacking the basket and knocking down treys.
However, a late first-half run by UK was capped by a Davis 3-pointer to give the SEC regular-season champs their first lead of the contest. But UF promptly took the lead back early in the second half and led by as many as five.
However, a 14-0 run sparked by Terrence Jones seemingly put the Gators away. But they wouldn't fold, pulling back to within two on a deep 3-ball from Beal, who finished with 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists without a turnover. The 'Cats put the game on ice with free throws in the waning moments to collect a 74-71 win as nine-point favorites.
Doron Lamb scored a team-high 16 points for UK. Davis, Teague and Jones finished with 15 points apiece. UF's Murphy scored a career-high 24 points, draining all four of his 3-point attempts and making 9-of-12 shots from the field.
When Vandy and Kentucky met in the regular season, they went toe to toe for 40 minutes both times. UK finished the game in Nashville on a 6-0 run to win a 69-63 decision as a 4 1/2-point road favorite. Davis produced 15 points, eight rebounds and seven blocked shots. Jenkins scored a team-high 15 points for the Commodores.
The rematch at Rupp Arena in Lexington was held on Feb. 11. John Calipari's team won 83-74, but this was another misleading final and Vandy, which led by one at intermission, took the money as an 11 1/2-point underdog.
As usual, Davis was the catalyst for UK with 28 points, 11 boards and six rejections. Vandy's Jeffery Taylor finished with 19 points and nine rebounds. Jenkins added 18 points, nailing 4-of-9 treys.
Vandy has been an underdog six times, compiling a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright wins at Marquette and at Alabama.
Kentucky has been a single-digit favorite nine times, going 4-5 ATS.
The 'under' is 17-12 overall for Vandy, cashing in each of its last three games. Meanwhile, UK has seen the 'under' cash at a 18-12-2 clip.
Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
FLORIDA ST (22 - 9) vs. N CAROLINA (28 - 4) - 3/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 3-1 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-2 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VANDERBILT (22 - 10) vs. KENTUCKY (31 - 1) - 3/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 62-40 ATS (+18.0 Units) in March games since 1997.
VANDERBILT is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 3-3 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 5-1 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ST BONAVENTURE (18 - 11) vs. XAVIER (20 - 11) - 3/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
XAVIER is 89-61 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
XAVIER is 9-17 ATS (-9.7 Units) in all games this season.
XAVIER is 9-17 ATS (-9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
XAVIER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
XAVIER is 3-0 against the spread versus ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
XAVIER is 3-0 straight up against ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OHIO ST (26 - 6) vs. MICHIGAN ST (25 - 7) - 3/11/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OHIO ST is 185-145 ATS (+25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OHIO ST is 118-87 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 2-2 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 3-1 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Sunday's Top College Basketball Trends
N CAROLINA is 0-10 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days rest (vs Florida State)
VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS off an Under (vs Kentucky)
KENTUCKY is 4-14 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread (vs Vanderbilt)
MICHIGAN ST is 13-4 ATS after allowing 60 pts or less (vs. Ohio State)
NCAAB Preview
ACC Tournament (Atlanta)
Florida State is trying to become first team other than Carolina/Duke to win ACC tournament since Maryland in 2004; Seminoles pounded on North Carolina 90-57 Jan 14, as Dulkys made 8-10 behind arc and FSU had 14 offensive rebounds. Tar Heels' Henson has an injured left hand, doubtful he plays here, even if he is able to go. North Carolina got only four points from its bench yesterday, playing subs a total of 41 minutes. FSU is 6-2 against the spread as an ACC underdog.
Atlantic 14 Tournament (Atlantic City)
Coming into this week, St Bonaventure had won one A-14 tourney game since '04; they've won two this week and six of last seven games overall. Bonnies lost 77-64 at Xavier Jan 14, in game Musketeers shot 50% for night, 8-16 from arc. St Bonaventure played only one guy more than 32 minutes yesterday, as star Nicholson was in foul trouble, which helps some here. Xavier hasn't won this event since 2006; TV people say they are probably in NCAAs, but win here and they can relax.
SEC Tournament (New Orleans)
Kentucky beat Vanderbilt twice this season, 69-63 in Nashville Feb 11, then 83-74 in Rupp Arena two weeks later; Commodores have balance on offense and experienced players who should be able to beat Wildcats, if anyone can this year. Kentucky won this tournament last two years, so they've got 8-game tourney win streak on line. Vandy hasn't been to final of SEC tourney since before I was born (lost in semis last couple years), so this is bigger deal for them than it would be for most teams.
Big Dozen Tournament (Indianapolis)
Michigan State won first meeting with Ohio State 58-48 in Columbus on Feb 11, then Buckeyes ruined Spartans' Senior Day 72-70 last Sunday, after Michigan State had run out to early 24-9 lead. Spartans fell behind early 17-4 yesterday, but pulled away from anemic Wisconsin to win its first semifinal in last decade (1-6). Higher-seeded team won finals of this event last five years, with Ohio State winning three of those five years. Michigan State played three starters 35+ minutes yesterday.