NCAA Previews & Picks: Kentucky vs. Baylor
By Covers.com
No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (+7.5, 136)
THE STORY: The Wildcats extracted some sweet revenge in the Sweet 16, and now take aim at the program’s 15th trip to the Final Four. To get there, Kentucky will have to contend with a Baylor team that has won eight of its past 10 games and is in its second regional final in the past three seasons.
The Wildcats beat Indiana, who handed Kentucky its only regular-season loss in December, 102-90 in the regional semifinals on Friday as five Wildcats scored in double figures. The Bears face their stiffest challenge so far in the NCAA, having beaten a 14th seed, an 11th seed and a 10th seed in their first three games. Baylor won its first 17 games this season, and five of its seven losses have come to teams ranked in the Top 10. The Bears beat Xavier in the regional semifinals 75-70.
ABOUT BAYLOR (30-7): In nine seasons as head coach, Scott Drew has resurrected a program rocked by the murder of Patrick Dennehy and harsh NCAA violations. The Bears are fluid and dangerous in the open court, but have a disturbing tendency to play loose with big leads. Senior forward Quincy Acy can dominate inside (as he did against Xavier with 20 points and 15 rebounds), but will be challenged by Kentucky’s athletic frontcourt.
The Bears are one of the more accurate 3-point shooting teams in the nation, ranking 22nd nationally (38.6 percent). Freshman guard Brady Heslip leads the outside assault, hitting 45.6 percent of his attempts beyond the arc (sixth in the nation). But Heslip hit just one 3-pointer against Xavier. A hot day from the outside and the ability to push the tempo could give the Bears a puncher’s chance at derailing Kentucky’s express to New Orleans.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (35-2): Even with national Player of the Year favorite, Anthony Davis, saddled by foul trouble Friday, the Wildcats led most of the way. Kentucky has overwhelmed most of its opposition with a tremendous balance of strong guard play, a dominant frontcourt and excellent interior defense.
Keeping the freshman Davis – the nation’s leading shot blocker – on the floor is critical against the Bears. The Wildcats have six players who can shoulder the scoring load, making defending Kentucky a daunting proposition. Forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist took the lead on Friday, tying a season-high with 24 points. With its defense controlling the backboard and multiple options on offense, Kentucky is the favorite to continue its march to coach John Calipari’s first national championship.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as underdogs.
* Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 NCAA tournament games as favorites.
* Over is 6-1 in Bears' last seven overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats' last five overall.
TIP-INS:
1. Sunday’s winner faces either Louisville or Florida in the national semifinals next Saturday.
2. Baylor and Kentucky have met once before in the NCAA tournament, the Wildcats beating the Bears in the 1948 national championship game, 58-42.
3. Kentucky ranks 79th in the nation in free-throw percentage (71.9 percent), but shot 35-for-37 (94.6 percent) from the line against Indiana. That’s the most free throws made in a NCAA tournament game since 2007.
Pick: Baylor
NCAA Previews & Picks: North Carolina vs. Kansas
By Covers.com
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (-2, 144)
THE STORY: Two of the most successful programs in college basketball history meet in the Midwest Regional final in St. Louis when the No. 2 seed Jayhawks face former coach Roy Williams and the top-seeded Tar Heels.
The teams have split four previous meetings in the NCAA tournament – all of them in the national semifinals or championship game. Both teams survived upset scares in the Sweet 16 on Friday, as North Carolina outlasted Ohio in overtime and Kansas held off a late charge from N.C. State.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (32-5): The Tar Heels were not themselves against Ohio – the offense was out of sync without point guard Kendall Marshall (wrist), and star Harrison Barnes endured a difficult shooting night. North Carolina was able to use its size advantage to dominate the boards, and center Tyler Zeller scored 20 points and grabbed a career-high 23 rebounds. But the Tar Heels won’t find such a mismatch inside against the Jayhawks, who boast a formidable post duo in National Player of the Year finalist Thomas Robinson and 7-foot center Jeff Withey.
ABOUT KANSAS (30-6): The Jayhawks notched their 30th win for the third straight season with the 60-57 win over N.C. State, advancing to the Elite Eight for the second year in a row and the fifth time in nine seasons under Bill Self. Kansas’ path has not been an easy one, though. The Jayhawks got off to slow starts before rallying to beat No. 10 seed Purdue and the 11th-seeded Wolfpack, and they squandered an eight-point lead with less than four minutes left before holding on against N.C. State. Robinson had another big game Friday with 18 points and 15 rebounds for his school-record 26th double-double of the season and his 24th consecutive game scoring in double digits.
TRENDS:
* Jayhawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games as underdogs.
* Under is 16-5 in Jayhawks' last 21 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Tar Heels last five NCAA tournament games.
TIP-INS:
1. Kansas (2,068) and North Carolina (2,065) rank second and third in all-time victories behind Kentucky (2,087).
2. North Carolina is 18-7 all-time in the regional finals and is trying to advance to the Final Four for the 10th time since 1988.
3. Withey’s 10 blocks Friday matched a Kansas record and moved him into first on the school’s single-season blocks list with 126.
Pick: North Carolina
Where the action is: UK-Baylor total unfairly inflated?
By Covers.com
The last two Final Four contestants will punch their ticket to New Orleans Sunday when the South and Midwest Regions conclude. But before the final horn sounds, bettors will have their way with the odds from these Elite Eight matchups.
We talked to Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming in Nevada, about where the early action is for Sunday’s two games – Kentucky vs. Baylor and Kansas vs. North Carolina.
No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears – Open: UK -7.5 Move: UK -8
The Wildcats opened as sizable favorites against the No. 3 Bears after a 102-90 shootout with Indiana in the Sweet 16. The public jumped on Kentucky after that offensive display and has pushed the spread to -8.
“Baylor is long and good inside and they rebound well, which will help against Kentucky,” said Colbert. “But Kentucky is more skilled and will eventually wear them down.”
As for the total, the number opened at 148 and has drawn some early bets on the over. Colbert isn’t sold on the opening total but respects the action coming in on the over.
“Kentucky is probably the best defensive team in the country and Baylor isn’t bad either,” he says. “I think that 148 is bit inflated after last night’s game. Both these teams play good defense. I think it should’ve opened around 146, but they’re betting the over.”
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: KU -2 Move: KU -2.5
Cantor Gaming opened Kansas as a 2-point favorite and has held steady at that spread while other books have jumped half a point. Colbert is a bit surprised that the Jayhawks were posted as the favorites versus the No. 1 Tar Heels and says Friday’s overtime thriller with Ohio is the cause.
“It really got made from (Friday’s) game,” he says. “I would have said North Carolina -2 or maybe, after that game, a pick’em. This is a surprising one.”
Colbert also takes notes that the Midwest Region final takes place in St. Louis, which should make for a pro-Jayhawks crowd, and that UNC point guard Kendall Marshall is still a question mark with a wrist injury.
“I don’t think he’s going to play,” says Colbert. “It’s something we are monitoring very closely heading into this one.”
The total opened at 144 points and has dropped half a point to 143.5. Cantor has taken a small amount of the money on the under but hasn’t received any sharp money on the over/under as of Saturday afternoon.
Baylor vs. Kentucky
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Two more berths to the Final Four in New Orleans next weekend will be handed out Sunday. The first game will take place at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, where top-seeded Kentucky (35-2 straight up, 14-21-1 against the spread) will take on No. 3 seed Baylor.
As of early Saturday night, most books had UK favored by either 7½ or eight with a total of 147½. Gamblers can take the Bears to pull the outright upset for a generous plus-300 payout (risk $100 to win $300).
John Calipari’s team advanced the Elite Eight by avenging a regular-season loss at Indiana in Friday’s 102-90 win as a 10-point ‘chalk.’ With Anthony Davis saddled with foul trouble that limited him to 25 minutes of playing time, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist led the way with 24 points and 10 rebounds. Doron Lamb and Darius Miller added 21 and 19 points, respectively.
Davis finished with nine points, 12 boards and three blocked shots. Marquis Teague scored 14 points and dished out seven assists and Terrence Jones was also in double figures with 12 points.
Baylor (30-7 SU, 14-16 ATS) is in the Elite Eight for the second time in three years thanks to Friday’s 75-70 South Region semifinals win over Xavier. However, the Bears blew the cover for their backers with lackluster play down the stretch.
Scott Drew’s team raced out to a 22-4 lead by the under-12 television timeout and it led by 13 at halftime. But Tu Holloway’s 3-pointer with 21 seconds remaining pulled Xavier to within three at 71-68 and basically clinched the spread cover for those who took the Musketeers as underdogs.
Quincy Acy dominated the lane with 20 points and 15 rebounds, scoring on a slew of powerful dunks. Pierre Jackson had another double-double with 16 points and 10 assists. In the first three games of the Tournament, Jackson is averaging 16.3 points and 7.3 assists per game.
Perry Jones III was also in double figures with 14 points against Xavier. Brady Haslip wasn’t as spectacular but still had 11 points on 3-of-7 shooting from the field and 1-of-3 from beyond the arc. In the Tournament to date, Heslip has drained 15-of-25 treys at an incredible 60-percent clip.
UK has been a single-digit favorite 10 times, posting a 4-6 spread record. Meanwhile, Baylor has been an underdog nine times, going 5-4 both SU and ATS.
Bettors should keep in mind that in terms of crowd noise, this is basically a home game for Kentucky. The Wildcats have the nation’s most rabid fan base and they are notorious for invading ‘Cat-lanta’ for SEC Tournaments and NCAA Tourney appearances. I was told that even Indiana’s great fans were overwhelmed by the Big Blue Nation in the dome Friday night.
CBS will have the telecast at 2:20 p.m. Eastern.
Kansas vs. North Carolina
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The last ticket to the Final Four will be handed out Sunday evening when Kansas (30-6 SU, 17-17 ATS) and North Carolina (32-5 SU, 20-16 ATS) meet in the Midwest Regional Final from St. Louis. The two powerhouse programs haven’t met since 2008 when the Jayhawks blasted the Tar Heels 84-66 in the Final Four. Kansas and head coach Bill Self eventually went on to beat Memphis in the Championship one game later.
Fast forward to Sunday’s matchup and most gamblers will be focusing on the status of one player, North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall. The sophomore injured his wrist in the team’s victory over Creighton in the third round. He sat out Friday’s 73-65 overtime victory against Ohio and his absence was felt.
UNC turned the ball over 24 times without Marshall and the offense (40%) couldn’t find any rhythm at all. To put things in perspective, the Tar Heels turned the ball over 20 times in their first two tournament games. His status is expected to be known after the pregame shootaround but missing 9.6 assists and 7.2 points per game is hard to makeup.
Fortunately, North Carolina still boasts a solid frontcourt in Tyler Zeller and John Henson. Plus they have a NBA-talent in Harrison Barnes, but he hasn’t lived up to his billing in the tournament at all. In three games, he’s put up 14, 17 and 12 points. He was awful against Ohio, shooting 3-of-16 from the field and 2-of-9 from 3-point land.
Size has helped the Tar Heels all season but Kansas has the big men to match UNC. Power forward Thomas Robinson (17.7 PPG, 11.9 RPG) has been beast all season, plus center Jeff Withey (9.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG) takes up a lot of space. Withey had 10 blocks in Kansas’ 60-57 win over N.C. State on Friday and Robinson filled up the stat sheet with 18 points and 15 boards.
“From a matchup standpoint, I see a lot of similarities between Kansas and Florida State, which is notable since the Seminoles beat the Tar Heels twice this season, and that was when UNC was at full strength,” explained VegasInsider.com handicapper Keith Fredrick.
Even though opportunities were there, the Jayhawks failed to cover as eight-point favorites. Kansas couldn’t buy a shot from the outside (1-of-14) and its free-throw shooting (11-of-20) wasn’t much better either.
Looking at both teams, it’s safe to say that Kansas is the more fortunate of the two to be here. The Jayhawks cruised past Detroit (65-50), which was a public ‘dog, in the tournament opener but easily could’ve lost to Purdue (63-60) if it wasn’t for some poor execution by the Boilermakers late in the game. Even against North Carolina State, the Jayhawks looked soft at times and out of place. They were very fortunate to have the Wolfpack shoot only 28.4 percent from the field on Friday. What happens when a team actually knocks down open jumpers?
North Carolina has the ability to push the tempo and create shots but outside of the 87 points it put up against Creighton in the third round, Roy Williams’ team has been out of sync.
Due to the Marshall factor, Kansas opened as a three-point favorite over North Carolina. The line quickly dropped down to 2 and some offshore betting shops have lowered it to 1 ½.
According to VI expert Marc Lawrence, past trends don’t favor Kansas. “The Big 12 has gone 0-10 against the spread in their last 10 appearances in the Elite Eight,” said Lawrence.
Since the line is so short, straight up numbers are far more important here. Then again, North Carolina has five losses on the season and two of them came by exactly one point, setbacks to Kentucky (72-73) and Duke (84-85).
The total on this game opened at 144 and the number has dipped to 143.
Kansas has seen all three of its games in the tournament go ‘under’ the number. North Carolina has produced a 2-1 mark to the ‘under’ and that number could be 3-0 if you got in late on the Creighton game since some books closed at 160.5 (87-73 final). While that could’ve gone the other way, some ‘over’ players are probably still upset that Ohio and UNC only put up 12 points in the extra session, which kept the game ‘under.’
If you’re looking at the ‘over’ in Sunday’s matchup then you need both teams to get 71 points on the board.
Is it doable?
Absolutely but at the end of the day, totals in basketball are usually determined by 3-pointers made and free throws made. Perfect example is yesterday’s action. Florida and Louisville combined for 14 treys, while Ohio State and Syracuse attempted 67 free throws and they converted 51. Both games went ‘over’ and neither of the two had an up-and-down pace.
The pace should be there on Sunday, especially if Marshall gives it a go. UNC has attempted 65 shots in each of its three tournament games, while Kansas took 62 and 64 in its last two. Against Detroit, the Jayhawks only took 50 shots but they went to the charity stripe 23 times.
Kansas has seen the ‘under’ go 21-12 this season and even more telling, the Jayhawks have seen the ‘under’ go 15-2 outside of Lawrence this season. UNC owns an 18-18 total mark, which includes an 11-8 mark to the ‘over’ on the road.
The winner of this game will meet Ohio State in next week’s Final Four semifinal from New Orleans.
NCAAB Preview
Since 2003, underdogs are 26-12 against spread in regional finals; since 2002, dogs of 8+ points are 7-1-1 vs spread in this round. Baylor is 5-4 vs spread as an underdog this season, 2-4 in last six tries-- six of their last seven games went over the total. Kentucky's game Friday night was tougher than normal, against a rival. Indiana shot 52%, even though their PG is out for the year. Baylor has better athletes than Indiana- they got out to 20-4 lead early on Xavier, then held on to advance. Bears were in this same exact spot two years ago, got hosed by refs in 78-71 loss (+4) to Duke. UK better not look ahead to potential game with Louisville.
Nothing matters in Carolina-Kansas game as much as Marshall's health; if he can't give them some kind of minutes, some kind of lift, then UNC is going to get rolled here-- you can't win this kind of a game without a solid floor general. White was OK Friday, but now he has to do it again 45 hours later and Ohio did exploit him on defense. Since 2004, #1 seeds are 9-11 SU in regional finals, 3-7 when facing a #2 seed. Kansas hasn't shot the ball at all last two games, making just 7-38 from arc in struggles with Purdue/NC State (trailed both games at half); Carolina turned ball over 24 times Friday; Marshall did practice a little bit yesterday.
Armadillosports.com
BAYLOR (30 - 7) vs. KENTUCKY (35 - 2) - 3/25/2012, 2:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 20-31 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 20-31 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 64-43 ATS (+16.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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KANSAS (30 - 6) vs. N CAROLINA (32 - 5) - 3/25/2012, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
KANSAS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
N CAROLINA is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 125-94 ATS (+21.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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OAKLAND (20 - 15) at UTAH ST (20 - 15) - 3/25/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1997.
UTAH ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games in all tournament games since 1997.
OAKLAND is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BAYLOR vs. KENTUCKY
BAYLOR: 8-1 Over playing w/ one or less days rest
KENTUCKY: 9-18 ATS off 3+ SU wins
KANSAS vs. NORTH CAROLINA
KANSAS: 15-6 Under on neutral court
NORTH CAROLINA: 1-11 ATS Away playing w/ one or less days rest