College Basketball Knowledge
Michigan State won four of last five games, losing in OT at Purdue last game; Spartans are 3-2 at home in Big 14, winning last two at home by 9-34 points. MSU won its last four games with Indiana, winning last two here by 5-20 points. Hoosiers lost two of last three road games, by 3 at Wisconsin, 5 at Indiana, their only losses in last 17 games. Big 14 home favorites of 8 or less points are 15-10 vs spread.
Pitt won its last two games with North Carolina by 5-13 points; but lost 75-71 in only ACC visit here, in 2014. Pitt is 3-5 in its last eight games after starting season 14-1, losing three of last four on road, with losses by 18-13-2 points. UNC plays Duke Wednesday; they lost two of last three games, and struggled to win 68-65 at lowly BC in last game. ACC double digit home favorits are 9-8 against the spread.
Syracuse won seven of its last eight games; this is their fiest road game in three weeks. Orange is 2-3 on ACC road, winning at Wake/Duke, losing by 8 at Virginia in last road tilt- they hammered Boston College 62-40 at home Jan 13, shooting 62% inside arc; Eagles are 0-11 in ACC. Orange are 4-1 vs BC in ACC games, winning by 10-14 in two visits here. ACC double digit home underdogs are 4-1 against the spread.
UMass upset URI/VCU in its last two home games, but those are their only two wins in last ten games. Minutemen lost last four road games, all by 8+ points- they won last four games with Duquesne; taking four of last five visits here. Duquesne won three of last four home games, but allowed 84.5 ppg in losing its last two games overall. A-14 home faves of less than 8 points are 10-12 against the spread.
Temple won its last four games, with all three all by 5 or less points or in OT; Owls won 70-63 at South Florida two weeks ago- they were +8 in turnovers (13-5) in beating USF four 4th straight time, winning by 1-13 in last two visits here. Bulls are 5-20 this year, losing last couple of games by 31-34 points; their only two wins in last 14 games were on road. AAC double digit home favorites are 6-12 vs spread.
Illinois State won 55-52 at Bradley Jan 20; teams were combined 10-44 on arc. Redbirds won last four series games, none by more than sixteen points. Braves lost last eight visits here, last four by 30-20-16-10. MVC home favorites of 15+ points are 8-0 vs spread. State won six of its last seven games, winning last three at home by 9-12-5 points. Bradley lost seven of last eight games; they're shooting 26.8% on arc (#350).
Evansville beat Loyola 74-66 at home Jan 19, shooting 59% inside arc; Purple Aces won four of five series games, winning by 3-9 in two visits here. Aces lost four of last six games after starting season 17-3. MVC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. Ramblers are 3-1 in last four games but lost last home game to Illinois State; Loyola is 2-4 at home in Valley, with only wins over Drake, Indiana State.
Utah made 11-22 on arc, scored 1.35 ppp in 92-71 win at Washington State Jan 21; home side won six of seven series games- Utes won 67-59 here LY, its only win in three Pac-12 visits to Pullman. Utah won last four home games, by 6-9-22-8 points; they won six of last eight games overall, getting swept in Oregon LW. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 6-2 vs spread. Wazzu lost in double OT Thursdsy at Colorado.
Florida State lost 72-59 at Miami Jan 9, its 5th loss in last seven games with Hurricanes. Miami won two of its last three visits here; they shot 64% inside arc in first meeting. Seminoles are 3-2 at home in ACC with losses to UNC/Pitt- they won four of last five games overall. ACC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 5-7 vs spread. Miami won six of its last seven games; they're 2-3 on ACC road, winning at BC/Ga Tech.
Minnesota is 0-12 in Big 14, amidst rumors Richard Pitino will join his father at UNLV next year. Gophers' only top 100 win this year was in November against Clemson. Iowa-Minnesota split last six meetings, but Gophers won here LY for first win in their last four visits to Iowa. Big 14 home favorites of 15+ points are 7-4 vs spread. Hawkeyes are 6-0 at home in conference, with one win by more than fourteen points.
USC beat Arizona 103-101 in four OTs Jan 9, blowing 12-point lead in last 5:23 of regulation; home side won five of last six series games, with Trojans losing last six visits here, last three by 16-24-30 points. USC is 3-3 in last six games after starting season 15-3, losing last three on road, allowing 82.7 ppg. Arizona won its last four games, last two by 6-5 points. Pac-12 single digit home favorites are 23-14 vs spread.
UCLA lost five of last seven games, is 13-11 and likely headed to NIT; they lost last three road games, allowing 82.3 ppg in losses by 14-19-6. Arizona State lost 81-74 at UCLA Jan 9, after leading by 6 with 11:49 left to play; Bruns are 8-2 in last ten games with ASU, but lost last two visits here, by 18-2 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 4 or lsss points are 5-7 vs spread. ASU won its last two games after a 2-8 skid.
Rider won 66-60 at Niagara nine days ago, outscoring Eagles 20-8 on the foul line, with +6 turnover ratio (14-8). Broncs are 12-2 in last 14 games with Niagara, winning seven of last eight here. MAAC double digit home favorites are 3-5 vs spread. Rider lost tough 69-68 game to Monmouth Friday- they led by 14 with 3:58 but lost. Niagara lost four in row, eight of last nine games; they're shooting 27.4% on arc (#348).
St Peter's won 70-53 at Canisius Jan 9, shooting 56% inside arc; winning for first time in last seven series games. Griffins won last three visits to Jersey City by 9-4-3 points. Peacocks are 4-2 at home in MAAC, with wins by 16-13 in last two games. Canisius lost five of its last six games; they lost last three road games, by 7-11-23 points. MAAC home faves of 5 or less points are 5-6 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Sunday’s college basketball slate gets a fast start out of the gate with a pair of Top 10 teams in both the ACC and the Big Ten trying to successfully defend their home court. In the first of two 1 p.m. (ET) tips, the ACC’s Pittsburgh Panthers go on the road to Chapel Hill to face the No. 9 North Carolina Tar Heels. The other early start is a Big Ten tilt between the Indiana Hoosiers and the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing.
Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 9 North Carolina Tar Heels
Opening Odds: North Carolina -10
Betting Matchup
Pittsburgh has dropped its last two games straight-up, but it was able to cover against the spread in Tuesday’s 65-63 loss to Miami as a 7½-point road underdog. The Panthers are an even 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games while alternating a loss with a win over this entire stretch. The total stayed UNDER 143 in the loss to the Hurricanes and it has stayed UNDER in six of the Panthers’ last eight games.
Junior forward Michael Young was the only Pittsburgh starter in double figures in Tuesday’s loss with 12 points and sophomore forward Ryan Luther added 12 points off the bench. Young is the team’s leading scorer with 16.6 points per game and he is also the Panthers’ top shooter with an impressive 55.4 field goal percentage. Pitt is averaging 78.4 PPG and it is holding teams to 66.3 points at the other end of the court.
The Tar Heels are at the top of the ACC standings at 9-2 SU, but both of those losses came in their last three games. After falling to Louisville and Notre Dame on the road to start the month of February, they snuck by Boston College 68-65 on the road this past Tuesday as heavy 20½-point favorites. North Carolina is now a costly 1-6 ATS in its last seven games with the total staying UNDER in all six of those ATS losses.
North Carolina is averaging 83.8 PPG this season, but this average has fallen to just 74.6 points over its last five games. Senior forward Brice Johnson leads the team in scoring with 16.3 PPG and he is pulling down a team-high 10.2 rebounds a game. The Tar Heels remain deep in scorers with five additional players averaging at least 10 points a game. North Carolina is shooting 48 percent from the field and it is pulling down an average of 40.9 rebounds a game.
Betting Trends
The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road, but they fall to 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played on Sunday. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four road games.
The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and they have failed to cover in four of their last five games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games at home.
Head-to-head in this ACC clash, Pitt has won two of three previous meetings both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in all three games.
Indiana Hoosiers at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans
Opening Odds: Michigan State -7½
Betting Matchup
Indiana continues to stay in the thick of the Big Ten regular season title race at 10-2 SU in conference play, but it has failed to cover in three of its last five games. The Hoosiers were able to cover as three-point home favorites in this past Thursday’s important 85-78 victory against No. 4 Iowa. The total went OVER 152 points in that game after staying UNDER in their previous three games.
The Hoosiers are the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation with 84.1 PPG led by senior guard Yogi Ferrell’s 17.1 scoring average. He went cold in the win against Iowa with a 2-for-12 shooting performance as opposed to his 46.2 field goal percentage on the year. Both Troy Williams (12.8 PPG) and Thomas Bryant (12.0) are each scoring in double figures and shooting better than 50 percent from the field. Indiana as a team is hitting 50.9 percent of its shots from the field this season.
Michigan State is likely to drop out of the top ten in both major polls following this past Tuesday’s 82-81 overtime loss to Purdue, but it still covered in that game as a 2½-point road underdog. The Spartans are now 4-1 SU in their last five games with a perfect 5-0 mark ATS. The total went OVER 143 in Tuesday’s loss and it has gone OVER in their last three games. Michigan State is 13-8 ATS this season when closing as a favorite.
Senior guard Denzel Valentine went off in the loss to Purdue with a game-high 27 points and he remains the Spartans’ leading scorer with 19 PPG. He has now scored 20 points or more in his last three starts. Valentine also leads the team in assists with 6.9 as part of the Spartans’ 20.4 assists a game which is the highest total in the nation. They have also played stout defense at the other end of the court with a points-allowed average of 63.6.
Betting Trends
The Hoosiers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Sunday games and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five road games.
The Spartans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and they have covered in five of their last six games played on Sunday. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight home games.
The road team in this Big Ten tilt has covered ATS in five of the last six meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four meetings. Indiana is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games against Michigan State.
Sunday's Top 25 Trends
VegasInsider.com
Pittsburgh at North Carolina
North Carolina snapped a two-game skid by rallying past Boston College on Tuesday, 68-65, but failed to cover as 20½-point road favorites. The Tar Heels have stumbled to a 1-6 ATS record the last seven games, while posting a 1-4 ATS mark in five home conference contests. Pittsburgh owns an 0-7 ATS mark in the last seven games off a cover, coming off a 65-63 loss at Miami as 7½-point road underdogs. The Panthers are 2-1 SU/ATS against the Tar Heels since entering the ACC in 2013, including an 89-76 home victory over UNC last season.
Indiana at Michigan State
Indiana picked up a huge home victory over 4th-ranked Iowa on Thursday, 85-78 as 3½-point favorites to improve to 10-2 in the Big 10. The Hoosiers are listed as an underdog for the fourth time this season, beating Michigan and Notre Dame in their last two opportunities in this role. IU has won four of six conference road games, but lost two of its past three contests away from Bloomington at Penn State and Wisconsin. Michigan State saw its four-game winning streak end in an overtime setback at Purdue on Tuesday, but the Spartans cashed as three-point ‘dogs. The Spartans won both meetings with the Hoosiers last season, including a 20-point blowout in East Lansing.
Miami, Fl. at Florida State
The Hurricanes go for the season sweep of the Seminoles after dominating FSU at home last month, 72-59 as nine-point favorites. Miami has won three straight games since losing at North Carolina State, but all three of UM’s conference losses have come on the road. Florida State’s four-game hot streak was snapped in Thursday’s 85-72 loss at Syracuse, the third time the Seminoles have allowed at least 84 points on the road in ACC play. At home has been a different story defensively for FSU, as the ‘Noles have given up 74 points or less in four straight in Tallahassee since allowing 106 points to UNC in the home conference opener.
Minnesota at Iowa
It’s been a rough season for the Golden Gophers, posting an 0-12 record in Big 10 play. Minnesota has covered four straight times in the double-digit underdog role, including at Indiana and Michigan in the last month. Iowa lost only its second conference game in 12 tries at Indiana on Thursday, 85-78. The Hawkeyes own a perfect 12-0 record at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, including a 5-1 ATS mark as a home favorite against Big 10 opponents. Five of six home conference games have eclipsed the ‘over’ for Iowa, with the lone ‘under’ coming in their last home victory over Penn State, 73-49.
USC at Arizona
The last time these teams hooked up in Los Angeles, USC outlasted Arizona in four overtimes, 103-101 on January 9. The Trojans cashed as 3½-point underdogs, picking up only the second cover in the last eight matchups with Arizona. USC looks to bounce back after having its three-game winning streak snapped at Arizona State on Friday, 74-67, the lowest point total the Trojans have put up this season. Arizona is riding a four-game hot streak after rallying past UCLA on Friday, 81-75, but the Wildcats failed to cash as 11½-point favorites. The Wildcats have covered in seven of their last 10 home games, while going 7-2 ATS in the past nine as a home favorite of nine points or more.
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Indiana at Michigan State
In one of the biggest college basketball clashes of the weekend, the Indiana Hoosiers (20-5, 10-2 in Big Ten) will travel to the State of Michigan to take on the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (20-5, 7-5), a Sunday afternoon NCAAB online betting showdown that is expected to produce a lot of fireworks in East Lansing.
Why Bet on Indiana
In their biggest test of the season, a clash against the No. 4 Iowa Hawkeyes, the Hoosiers showed the creamy stuff that is reserved for champions, delivering a statement 85-78 upset victory; a win that in fact came after they had taken (and blown) a commanding 16-point lead in the game. Indiana’s lethal offense, averaging 84.1 PPG (10th-best in the nation) and 16.4 APG (25th-best in the nation), was in full showcase against Iowa, balancing deep and close-range shooting to outclass the Hawkeyes in meticulous fashion, of course led by Player of the Year candidate Yogi Ferrell. Meanwhile, Indiana’s backups were equally up to the task, contributing 24 points compared to the zero points posted by Iowa’s backups.
Playing at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center will be an entirely different thing together, given the Spartans have lost just one home game all season, and that was in fact a lucky 72-71 win by Nebraska that could have ended up in a Sparty win had Michigan State not missed a couple of key shots down the stretch. Even so, Indiana has a pretty nice résumé, boasting of a decent number of marquee wins, which should be a big motivation for them to strive for a winning performance this Sunday.
Why Bet on Michigan State
While the Hoosiers have been pretty solid offensively, their defense has struggled, especially in Big Ten play. On the season the Hoosiers are allowing 68.8 PPG (ranked 109th in the nation). This leaky defense opens an opportunity for Sparty’s Player of the Year candidate and triple-double machine Denzel Valentine to get some solid production, along with his trustworthy teammates. Though Sparty is averaging 79.5 PPG (which is a bit low compared to Indiana’s average), the home-playing Michigan State is dishing out an NCAAB-best 20.4 assists per game. This ability to spread the ball around the court could prove very pivotal down the stretch, especially in instances that Sparty’s star players don’t have enough space to shoot.
Another big advantage for Michigan State is that the team is giving up just 63.6 PPG (15th-best in the nation), a defense that is guaranteed to cause fits to Ferrell and Co. Suffering the 82-81 road defeat to Purdue on Tuesday night was a big blow to the Spartans’ Big Ten title credentials and horrifying exposure to Sparty’s not-so-good-looking defensive underbelly, but if you’ve watched Michigan State this season, you would agree with me that the Spartans are never easy to beat, particularly when they are playing at home.
Indiana at Michigan State Predictions and Picks
Truth as it is that this clash will be decided by several factors, the bottom line is that the game is highly likely to come down to the star play of opposing guards Valentine and Ferrell. Defensively, both players aren’t as strong, so their offensive contribution will probably matter most. And as far as the season so far is concerned, Indiana’s assist and scoring leader Ferrell is averaging 17.1 PPG and 5.6 APG. Conversely, Valentine, who is also Sparty’s leader in assists and scoring, is averaging 19.0 PPG and 6.9 APG). The edge here is therefore on Valentine and Sparty. Then, of course, there is the fact that Sparty’s defense is way much better than Indiana’s, while the Hoosiers offense can go toe-to-toe with Indiana. Added to the fact that this game will be interestingly played on Valentine’s Day, I see the matchup ending up to be Valentine’s—pun intended—and not Ferrell’s.
Pick: OVER: Score Prediction: Michigan State 84, Indiana 79
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Minnesota at Iowa
The Iowa Hawkeyes look to get back into the win column Sunday evening when they host Minnesota Gophers. Hawkeyes fell to 19-5 (13-8 ATS) on the season, 10-2 (8-4 ATS) in Big Ten play with its 85-78 loss Thursday at Indiana. Hawkeyes, no slouches at putting the ball through the hoop dropping 80.5 PPG are flawless on home court at 12-0 straight-up, 7-2 ATS in line games. Hawkeyes are also on a sharp 12-3 (10-4-1 ATS) stretch hosting a conference rival.
In their last game, the Gophers at the wrong end of an 84-72 decision vs Michigan increased the horrible slump to thirteen straight (5-8 ATS) giving the team a 6-18 (7-15 ATS) record overall, 0-12 (5-7 ATS) mark within the conference. Gophers averaging a lowly 69.2 PPG, life on the road has certainly been a challenge. Away from Minneapolis, the team sports an 0-6 (2-4 ATS) record in true road games, 1-3 (0-4 ATS) mark in neutral site affairs. In the last seventeen matchps on a Big Ten opponents hardwood the Gophers are just 2-15 straight-up, 5-12 against the betting line.
Oddsmakers noting home court will play a significant role in this contest have pegged Hawkeyes a whopping -19.0 point favorite.