College Basketball Betting News and Notes Sunday, March 29

College Basketball Knowledge

Izzo is 20-4 in turnaround games in NCAA tournament; his staff is great at getting kids ready to play on short rest. Michigan State won seven of last eight games overall; Spartans are 1-2 vs ACC teams this year, with upset of Virginia last weekend, losing to Notre Dame in OT by a point, Duke by 10. Louisville threw its PG off team in mid-February but has now progressed to this point; Cardinals are trying for third Final Four in last four years. Big 14 teams are 7-8 vs spread this postseason, 3-4 as a favorite. ACC teams are 10-10 vs spread, 5-1 as underdogs. Izzo is 12-9 in tournament games when lower-seed.

Gonzaga is trying for its first Final Four; Bulldogs have experience edge here (#39, Duke is #330 in experience) but Blue Devil program has better history on its side. Duke won 15 of last 16 games; they're 15-0 outside ACC, allowing 54 ppg in first three tourney wins. Gonzaga's only losses this season were by 3 points each, at Arizona in OT, at home to BYU. ACC teams are 10-10 vs spread this postseason, 5-9 as favorite. WCC teams are 2-5 vs spread, all as favorites. Look at regional finals between 1-2 seeds: since 2003, 2-seeds are 11-4 SU against 1-seeds in regional finals- since '09, 1-seeds are 5-9 vs spread in regional finals.

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Elite Eight Tips
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

All four favorites won their regional semifinal matchup on Friday, more importantly they covered against the spread too. This Sweet 16 clean sweep sets up a pair of highly anticipated showdowns this Sunday afternoon in the Elite 8 Round. On the line is a trip to the Final Four from the right side of the bracket in this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament.

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Louisville

Venue: Carrier Dome
Location: Syracuse, NY
Betting Odds: Michigan State -2½, Total 129

The Spartans came into this tournament as the most feared No. 7 seed in the field and they have held true to form with a three-game run to the Elite 8 both straight-up and against the spread. The biggest win came in the third round when they knocked-out No. 2 Virginia 60-54 as 4½-point underdogs. Michigan State advanced to the East Region final with Friday’s 62-58 victory against No. 3 Oklahoma as a sight one-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER in both of these games.

If Michigan State does go on to the Final Four you can almost guarantee that senior guard Travis Trice had another big game. Through his first three contests in this tournament he has scored 62 points while going 20-for-44 from the field including a 10-for-22 effort from three-point range. Michigan State is averaging 71.9 points per game and shooting 47.1 percent from the field. On the other end of the court it is allowing an average of 63 PPG.

Louisville’s run through the East Region includes a 66-53 upset of No. 5 Northern Iowa as a 2 ½-point underdog and Friday’s 75-65 victory over No. 8 NC State as a 2½-point favorite. The Cardinals are now 7-2 SU in their last nine contests and 3-2 ATS in their last five games. This followed a bit of a rough patch for bettors with Louisville going just 1-5 ATS in its previous six regular season games. It is 4-2 ATS in six games as an underdog this season.

The Cardinals’ success in this tournament has been fueled by the elevated play of sophomore guard Terry Rozier and junior forward Montrezl Harrell. In the three games, Rozier has posted 54 points, 22 rebounds and 16 assists to Harrell’s 46 points, 17 rebounds and six assists. Louisville is averaging 69.2 PPG this season and defensively it is holding teams to 59.4 PPG.

Betting Trends:

The Spartans have covered ATS in five of their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games in the NCAA Tournament.

The Cardinals have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against a Big Ten team and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 12 games in this tournament.

These two last faced one another in the 2012 NCAA Tournament and Louisville came away with a 57-44 victory as a 5½-point underdog. The total stayed UNDER the closing 125-point line.

No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Duke

Venue: NRG Stadium
Location: Houston, TX
Betting Odds: Duke -2½, Total 145

Gonzaga was penciled-in all the way to the Final Four on quite a few brackets before this tournament got underway and so far it remains on track with solid wins over No. 7 Iowa and No. 11 UCLA both SU and ATS. The Bulldogs have now gone a perfect 6-0 SU in their last six outings including a 4-1 mark ATS in their last five games. The total stayed UNDER the closing 144½-point line in this past Friday’s 74-62 win against the Bruins after going OVER in their previous five games.

Gonzaga got past UCLA shooting just 40. 3 percent from the field after leading the nation this season with a 52.4 field goal percentage. Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer has been a force during this three-game run with 55 points and 25 rebounds, but it was junior center Przemek Karnowski who came up big against the Bruins with a game-high 18 points and nine rebounds. The Bulldogs are 10th in the nation in scoring with 79.1 PPG.

The top-seeded Blue Devils come into this region final with three-straight covers in this tournament. They covered a 22½-point spread in a 29-point victory over No. 16 Robert Morris and against No. 8 San Diego State they won by 19 points as nine-point favorites. This past Friday, Duke beat No. 5 Utah 63-57 as a 4 ½-point favorite to improve to 7-1 ATS in its last eight contests. The total has now stayed UNDER in seven of its last eight games.

The Blue Devils match-up well against Gonzaga on the scoreboard with an average of 80.6 PPG and they are ranked third in the nation shooting the ball with a field goal percentage of 50.2. Freshman center Jahlil Okafor posted a game-high 26 points in the 68-49 victory over San Diego State and freshman forward Justise Winslow came up big in Friday’s win with 21 points and 10 rebounds.

Betting Trends:

The Bulldogs have gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against an ACC team, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. The total has gone OVER in 20 of their last 27 games in the NCAA Tournament.

The Blue Devils have now covered ATS in five of their last seven NCAA Tournament games and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last nine games in the NCAA Tournament.

The last time these two teams played each other was in the 2009 regular season with Duke hammering the Bulldogs 76-41 as an 8½-point home favorite. The total in that game stayed UNDER the closing 153-point line.

Sunday's NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet: Elite Eight
By Covers.com

Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5, 128.5)

While other matchups in the Elite Eight feature some of the nation's best players, such as Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky and Kentucky's litany of future NBA draft picks, the East Regional final features a different kind of star-studded affair. Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Louisville's Rick Pitino are two of the best coaches in the country and after working their March magic yet again, their teams will square off in Syracuse, N.Y. on Sunday for a berth in the Final Four. The fourth-seeded Cardinals and seventh-seeded Spartans are the two lowest-seeded teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament.

After his team knocked off the region's No. 2 and 3 seeds in the last two rounds, Izzo is one win away from his seventh trip to the Final Four - all since 1999. "He is the best at what he does," Spartans guard Lourawls Nairn Jr. told reporters. "We're real confident in whatever he tells us to do. As long as we focus on what he tells us to do, we'll be fine." Regarding Pitino, who has been to seven Final Fours - one with Providence, three with Kentucky and three with Louisville, Cardinals forward Montrezl Harrell told reporters: "Everybody has bought into the mentality that Coach wanted and everybody wants the same goal."

LINE HISTORY: Most online books opened Louisville +2, but quickly moved the line to +2.5. The total opened at 128.5 and has yet to shift.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Louisville has been faded in every game since the tourney started and nothing has changed here. Michigan State’s run in the Big Ten tourney, as well as past pedigree, has made it a very public play throughout the Dance. About 75 percent of our bets are on the Spartans, and a lot of it is square money." - John Lester, Senior Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (26-11 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-15-2 O/U): Travis Trice has increased his scoring in all three games of the tournament, going from 15 points in the opener to 23 in an upset of second-seeded Virginia and 24 against Oklahoma, as the senior guard is shooting 10-of-22 from 3-point range in the Big Dance. The Spartans have reached the Elite Eight despite Denzel Valentine shooting 7-of-23 over the last two games and a disappointing team-wide 58.8 free-throw percentage in the tournament. "One more victory would be one of the more sweeter moments of my career," acknowledged Izzo, who is 12-9 in the NCAA Tournament when his team has the lower seed.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (27-8 SU, 13-19-2 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): The Cardinals dismissed Chris Jones - the team's third-leading scorer - from the team in late February but still are one win from their third Final Four trip in the last four seasons. The catalysts for Pitino's latest magical run have been Terry Rozier, who had 17 points and a career-high 14 rebounds in the Sweet 16, and Harrell, whose 24 points against the Sooners were his most since Feb. 11. "I can't say enough about him because he's the toughest guy I've ever coached and he never lets me down," Pitino said of Harrell, who is 12-of-14 from the foul line in the tournament after shooting 58.3 percent over the first 32 games.

TRENDS:

*Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
*Cardinals are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.
*Over is 7-3 in Spartans last 10 overall.
*Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 non-conference games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 60.06 percent of Covers users are backing Michigan State -2.5 with 56.7 percent on the under.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 145)

Gonzaga is one win away from its first trip to the Final Four, but the last remaining obstacle is a significant one. The Bulldogs have lost only twice all season - by a total of six points - but now they must get past Duke when the teams meet Sunday in Houston in the South Regional final. Second-seeded Gonzaga is in its first Elite Eight since 1999, while top-seeded Duke is one win from its 16th appearance in the Final Four and its first since 2010.

The Blue Devils won the national championship that year with a veteran lineup, but the current group of Duke stars is a trio of freshmen complemented by a sturdy senior in the backcourt. Justise Winslow starred in Duke's Sweet 16 victory against Utah, while fellow freshman Jahlil Okafor matched a season low with six points and hopes to bounce back against Gonzaga with NBA scouts watching him closely. The Bulldogs rode their two big men, Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis, to a regional semifinal win against UCLA but likely need more production from their star players on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: Duke opened at either -2 or -2.5 initially, but was -2.5 at most books rather quickly. The total opened at 146.5 before dropping to 144.5, then rebounding to 145.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Somewhat split on this game as far as action but we’ve taken some serious sharp money on the Zags. Many of those bettors jumped on the under as well, dropping it 2.5 points from the open. Two high-scoring teams, they love the under. I think we’ll see the total climb back up a bit tomorrow as the public takes a look." - John Lester, Senior Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu

ABOUT GONZAGA (35-2 SU, 18-14-2 ATS, 19-13 O/U): Karnowski and Sabonis are the third- and fifth-leading scorers for the Bulldogs, but they combined for 30 points and 17 rebounds while their teammates struggled to 13-of-47 shooting against UCLA. Among the players who need to step up Sunday are Kyle Wiltjer, who averages a team-high 16.8 points but totaled eight on 4-of-12 shooting Friday, and Kevin Pangos (11.8 points), who went 1-of-7 from 3-point range en route to 10 points against the Bruins. "The one accomplishment that we haven't done is reach the Final Four and we finally have an opportunity to do that," said Bulldogs coach Mark Few, whose team went 10-of-16 from 3-point range in the round of 32 before going 3-of-19 in the Sweet 16.

ABOUT DUKE (32-4 SU, 21-14-1 ATS, 18-16 O/U): A native of Houston, Winslow shot 8-of-14 from the field and 3-of-4 from the arc en route to 21 points and 10 rebounds against Utah to finish with his third double-double in the last four games. "Justise played like a man all night. He did everything we needed," said senior guard Quinn Cook, who had 11 points to join Winslow and freshman Tyus Jones (15) in double figures. The Utes employed constant double-teams on Okafor, who attempted only six shots and only took one free throw while committing four turnovers in perhaps the worst game of his Blue Devils career.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 non-conference games.
*Under is 5-0 in Blue Devils last 5 overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 52.14 percent of Covers users are on Duke -2.5 with 60.5 percent on the over.

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Gonzaga vs Duke

Gonzaga (35-2, 18-14-2 ATS) looking as good as any team in this tournament winning each of its three games by double-digits face Duke (32-4, 21-14-1 ATS) in this Elite-8 showdown. Zags are dropping 82.3 through the iron this tournament on 51.9% from the field, 35.1% from outside. Wiltjer (18.3) leads the Bulldog offense with Pangos (14.7), Karnowski (12.6), Sabonis (12.3) all chipping in double digits to the cause. Zags are a little shaky on the defensive end giving up 68.7 PPG over three games. Bulldogs 2-1 against the betting line so far have a 7-6 ATS mark in Tourney play since 2010. Duke not as efficient in putting the ball in the basket are netting 72.0 per/contest over three games with Okafor (17.6) the top producer followed by Cook (16.0), Winslow (13.3 and Jones (10.3). Defensively, Blue Devils have been a stingy bunch allowing the three opponents just 54.0 points/game on 34.8% from the field, 25.0% from outside. Blue Devils cashing all three tickets for backers enter 11-7 ATS since the 2010 Tournament including a cash stuffing 9-3 ATS as a #1 seed. Expect Duke to sustain its defensive efficiency slowing down that Bulldog offense. That said, lay the small number (-2.5) with Duke as Blue Devils are on a 9-1 ATS streak in NCAA play allowing less than 70 points, Zags are 2-7 ATS netting less than 70 during Tourney time.

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (26-11) vs. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (27-8)

Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Elite Eight
Tip-off: Sunday, 2:20 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -2.5, Total 128.5

Louisville and Michigan State will duke it out for a spot in the Final Four when the teams meet at the Carrier Dome Sunday.

Michigan State faced Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 and came away with a 62-58 victory as a 1-point favorite. The Spartans have now won-and-covered in all three of their NCAA tournament games and they are playing excellent defense, allowing just 58.3 PPG in those contests.

Louisville, meanwhile, defeated North Carolina State 75-65 as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Cardinals have covered in two straight games and have gotten it going offensively in those victories, averaging 70.5 PPG in those wins. They’ll need to keep scoring the ball efficiently, as they have the defense to keep them in pretty much any game.

These teams last played each other on Mar. 22, 2012. The Cardinals won that game 57-44 as 5.5-point underdogs, but that is their only win both SU and ATS versus the Spartans in their three meetings since 1997.

Michigan State is 13-6 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season. Louisville, however, is an impressive 18-7 ATS in March games over the past three seasons.

The Cardinals come into this game completely healthy but the Spartans will not have Javon Bess (Foot), who is out for the season.

Michigan State has been one of the best two-way teams in the nation this year, averaging 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 47.1% shooting (32nd in NCAA). The Spartans are allowing just 63.0 PPG (82nd in NCAA) on the defensive end, and they allowed just 58 against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16.

G Travis Trice (15.3 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) has been playing out of his mind in this tournament. Over the past two games, Trice is averaging 23.5 PPG and he is 14-for-29 from the field and 8-for-17 from three in those contests. Trice is an excellent shooter from the outside (37% 3PT) and will need to keep up his hot streak against a tough Louisville defense.

G Denzel Valentine (14.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.4 APG) had just four points in the 3rd round against Virginia, but he responded with 18 points and seven rebounds in 38 minutes against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. Valentine can really shoot from deep (42% 3PT) and also does everything else well. He’ll find his teammates when his shot isn’t falling and he always hits the glass hard. He must play well against Louisville in order for the Spartans to advance.

F Branden Dawson (11.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG) is the guy that will need to man the inside for Michigan State. He’ll be going against a very good Louisville frontcourt, but he can’t afford to not show up. He had just six points against Oklahoma last game, but he did grab 11 boards and block a shot.

Louisville hasn’t been great offensively this season (69.2 PPG, 130th in NCAA; 42.9% FG, 211th in NCAA), but the team has gotten it going recently. The Cardinals are averaging 70.5 PPG over the past two games and that makes them extremely tough to beat with their stingy defense (59.4 PPG allowed, 17th in NCAA).

G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 SPG) is a menace on both sides of the ball for Rick Pitino. Rozier was an animal against NC State, finishing with 17 points, 14 rebounds and four assists in 40 minutes of action. He is relentless when attacking the rim and must continue to do so against the Spartans.

F Montrezl Harrell (15.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG) was also unstoppable against NC State on Friday. Harrell had 24 points, seven rebounds, four assists and a block in 40 minutes. He is a very good rim protector and is also capable of dunking anything from within five feet of the basket. He’ll need to perform at a high level against Dawson on Sunday.

G Wayne Blackshear (11.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is a good defender and a solid outsider shooter (32% 3PT) for this Louisville team. He’s averaging 13.0 PPG in the tournament so far and he’ll need to play some solid defense against Valentine in this game.

G Quentin Snider (4.1 PPG, 1.3 APG) will be an x-factor in this game. He has played great since stepping in as a starter for the Cardinals and is averaging 13.3 PPG in three tournament games so far.

GONZAGA BULLDOGS (35-2) vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (32-4)

NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas
NCAA Tournament – Elite Eight
Tip-off: Sunday, 5:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -2.5, Total: 144.5

Mark Few looks to guide Gonzaga to its first Final Four appearance when the team faces Duke Sunday.

Gonzaga has looked like a team on a mission in this tournament, defeating UCLA 74-62 in the Sweet 16 for its third straight double-digit victory. The Bulldogs have covered in their past two games and their defense has looked locked in, allowing just 65.0 PPG in those contests.

Duke, meanwhile, defeated Utah 63-57 as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. The Blue Devils have won-and-covered in all three of their tournament games and they’ve given up 57 or less points in all three of those contests.

The last time these two teams played each other was Dec. 19, 2009, when Duke won 76-41 as an 8.5-point favorite. The Blue Devils have won-and-covered in the only two meetings between these teams since 1997.

Gonzaga is 19-7 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are also 23-10 ATS as neutral court underdogs of six points or less since 1997. Duke, however, is 14-7 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite this season. G Josh Perkins (Jaw) is out indefinitely for Gonzaga and Duke is not currently dealing with any significant injuries.

Gonzaga has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging 79.1 PPG (10th in NCAA) on 52.4% shooting (6th in NCAA). This team shares the ball extremely well (16.5 APG, 6th in NCAA) and also is very tough on the glass (37.9 RPG, 30th in NCAA). On the defensive end, the Bulldogs are allowing 61.5 PPG (50th in NCAA) and have been playing very well in the tournament.

F Kyle Wiltjer (16.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.9 APG) struggled in the win over UCLA, scoring just eight points (4-for-12 FG, 0-for-3 3PT) in 30 minutes. Wiltjer is this team’s most reliable scorer and will need to get back on track against Duke. He can really shoot the ball from behind the arc (47% 3PT) and should be able to have his way with a Duke team that is weakest at the power forward position.

G Kevin Pangos (11.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.3 SPG) is also a very good outside shooter (44% 3PT) and is very experienced. He’ll need to be on his game and make sure his teammates are in the right spots on the floor in this one.

G Byron Wesley (10.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG) is likely going to see a lot of time matched up with Justise Winslow. He will need to knock down open shots when he gets them, but he’ll really just need to be sound defensively against Duke’s red-hot forward.

C Przemek Karnowski (11.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG) will be matched up against Jahlil Okafor in this one. Karnowski was a monster against the Bruins last game, finishing with 18 points (8-for-11 FG) and nine rebounds in 28 minutes. If he can play some solid defense on Okafor then the Bulldogs will have a very good chance of advancing.

F Domantas Sabonis (9.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) will also need to come in and disrupt Okafor for a little bit. Sabonis is averaging 15.0 PPG and 8.5 RPG over the past two contests and will need to keep up his strong play Sunday.

Like Gonzaga, this Duke offense has been pretty much unstoppable this season. The Blue Devils are putting up a ridiculous 80.6 PPG (4th in NCAA) on 50.2% shooting (3rd in NCAA). They do struggle at times defensively though, allowing 64.6 PPG (126th in NCAA) this season.

C Jahlil Okafor (17.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG) really struggled against Utah, finishing with just six points and eight boards in 32 minutes. Okafor will need to be on his game against the Bulldogs, as this team probably can’t afford to have him not score in double-digits again.

Fortunately for Duke, F Justise Winslow (12.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG) really stepped it up against Utah. He had 21 points (8-for-13 FG, 3-for-4 3PT), 10 rebounds and two blocks in 37 minutes of action and really shot the ball well. If he can come through with an offensive performance like that in this one then Duke will be in very good shape.

G Tyus Jones (11.5 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG) had 15 points, three assists and three rebounds against Utah in 38 minutes of action. Jones had struggled to score the ball with just 8.0 PPG in the previous two tournament games. He should be feeling confident coming into this game and will need to be good because his matchup with Pangos will be crucial.

G Quinn Cook (15.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.0 SPG) had 11 points and four rebounds in 38 minutes against Utah. Cook is the leader of this Duke team and is very experienced.

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