College Basketball Betting News and Notes Sunday, March 31

College Knowledge

Florida still hasn't won a game by less than 10 points this year, so if this is a tense struggle, their 0-6 record in single digit games cannot be a help. Gators are 2-0 vs Big Dozen teams, beating Wisconsin/Minnesota by 18, 14 points. Michigan was all but dead Friday, down 14 with 6:51 to play, 10 with 2:32 left, but pulled game out; four starters played 39+ minutes Friday-- a fifth played 35. Donovan is 3-2 in regional finals, but lost last two years, to Butler/Louisville; Gators are #28 in country in experience, Wolverines #342, big edge there. Florida hasn't been taxed yet, beating seeds #14-11-15 to get here. Michigan is #1 team in country protecting the ball; Beilein lost his only regional final to Louisville in OT in 2005. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six regional finals that didn't involve a #1 or #2 seed.

Since '85, Coach K is 11-1 in regional finals, 3-0 when he is a #2 seed vs a #1 (he also lost as a #1 vs a #2). Louisville-Duke last met in NCAAs in '86, when Cardinals won 72-69 in national title game; Duke (even) beat Louisville 76-71 on a neutral court Nov 24, when both teams had played previous two days, and game that Dieng sat out. Duke outscored Cards 23-9 on foul line, but made just 5-25 on arc. Louisville is 13-0 since loss in 5-OT's to Notre Dame, winning last eight games by 8+ points. Take a look at regional finals involving #1 vs #2 seeds: Since 2003, #2-seeds are 9-3 vs #1-seeds in regional finals, despite being underdog in nine of the 12 games. Duke is #4 in country at protecting ball, but their subs took only one shot Friday; they used four starters 36+ minutes.

Armadillosports.com

Michigan vs. Florida: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators (-2.5, 131)

Michigan is part of the Elite Eight for the first time in 19 years while Florida is part of the festivities for the third straight season when the two squads meet in Sunday’s South Regional final at Arlington, Texas. The third-seeded Gators are attempting to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2007, when they won the second of back-to-back national championships. The fourth-seeded Wolverines are still alive due to an epic comeback to beat Kansas in overtime.

Michigan trailed by 10 points with less than three minutes left in regulation against the Jayhawks before Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke caught fire, scoring eight points in the final 75 seconds and forcing overtime with a 28-foot 3-pointer. “We love coaching him because he’s got courage,” Wolverines coach John Beilein said afterward. Florida ousted tournament favorite Florida Gulf Coast with strong defensive play that included 20 turnovers. The next task is ending the streak of two straight losses in regional title games. “It’s so hard just a win a tournament game, never mind advance,” Gators coach Billy Donovan said.

ABOUT FLORIDA (29-7): The Gators lack superstars and the rotation is only eight players deep but anyone can emerge as the key player during any given contest. Senior guard Mike Rosario had 15 points against Florida Gulf Coast and is 10-of-19 from 3-point range during the tournament, while junior forward Casey Prather excelled off the bench with 11 points against the Eagles. “We wanted to come out and play with energy and help our team win,” Prather said of Florida’s strong bench contributions. “I think we did a great job of doing it. We made up our mind that we didn’t want to leave.” Rosario and senior forward Erik Murphy each averages 12.6 points. Senior guard Kenny Boynton chips in 12 points per game, junior center Patric Young averages 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds and junior guard Scottie Wilbekin contributes 9.3 points and 4.9 assists.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (29-7): Freshman forward Mitch McGary has emerged as a star in the NCAA Tournament by averaging 19.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. McGary scored a season-high 25 points and matched a season best with 14 rebounds against the Jayhawks in just his fifth career start. “Coach has done a tremendous job of just allowing me for this opportunity to just get this many minutes, and be in the starting lineup,” McGary said afterward. “I’m honored to have it. He says if you play hard in practice, you’re going to earn these minutes.” McGary’s season averages are 7.3 points and a team-best 6.1 rebounds. Burke, a sophomore point guard, leads the Wolverines in scoring (18.9) and assists (6.9) and finished with 23 points and 10 assists against Kansas. Junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr. averages 14.8 points.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 10-2 in Gators’ last 12 overall.
* Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.
* Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.

TIP-INS

1. Donovan has a 31-10 record in NCAA Tournament play and his .756 winning percentage is third among active coaches, trailing only Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski (.771) and Southern Methodist’s Larry Brown (.760).

2. The Wolverines haven’t won 30 games since compiling a 31-5 mark in 1992-93.

3. The winner faces either Syracuse or Marquette in the Final Four.

Duke vs. Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 137)

Louisville is the final No. 1 seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament and looked unbeatable behind Russ Smith in the first three games. Making the Final Four is never easy, however, and the Cardinals will need to get through No. 2 seed Duke in the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday. The Blue Devils have not had much trouble in their trip to the Elite Eight, either, and like Louisville have plenty of experience going deep in the Tournament.

The Cardinals have won 13 straight games going back to the regular season and have lived up to the hype as the No. 1 overall seed thanks in part to a total of 81 points in three NCAA Tournament games by Russ Smith. Duke can match Smith and Louisville shot for shot with Seth Curry, who went for 29 points in the Sweet Sixteen win over Michigan State and is 10-for-20 from 3-point range in the Tournament. After being bounced by a No. 15 seed last season, the Blue Devils are trying to make their first Final Four appearance since winning the National Championship in 2010.

ABOUT DUKE (30-5): Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski has not faced Louisville coach Rick Pitino in the NCAA Tournament since Christian Laettner’s historic shot against Kentucky in the 1992 Elite Eight ended one of the greatest college basketball games ever. Krzyzewski’s 2012-13 team is not quite the same, but it does have a plethora of scoring options. Curry was just the latest to take over for Duke after sharing the scoring load with Mason Plumlee in the opening game of the Tournament and letting freshman Rasheed Sulaimon take over in the third-round victory over Creighton. Sulaimon attacking the paint helped open things up for Curry to hit six 3-pointers in the 71-61 victory over the Spartans on Friday. All five starters scored at least 14 points the last time the Blue Devils faced the Cardinals, with Plumlee’s 16 points leading the way in a 76-71 win in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on Nov. 24.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (32-5): The Cardinals were without center Gorgui Dieng in the November meeting with Duke, but Peyton Siva collected 19 points and six steals and Smith scored 17 to keep things close. Dieng is shooting 87.5 percent in the Tournament and should make things more difficult for Plumlee this time around. Louisville has won its 13 straight games by an average of 17.3 points but was sluggish in the Sweet Sixteen win over Oregon due to a cold virus making its way through the squad. Smith had the worst of it on Friday but still managed 31 points in the 77-69 win. Siva spent most of the game in foul trouble but backup point guard Kevin Ware went 5-for-7 off the bench in his place. The Cardinals are largely the same team that reached the Final Four last season, though Smith has taken on a greater role.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Blue Devils’ last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals’ last seven overall.

TIP-INS

1. The schools have not met in the NCAA Tournament since Louisville defeated Duke in the 1986 National Championship game.

2. Krzyzewski is attempting to reach his 12th Final Four, which would tie legendary UCLA coach John Wooden for the record.

3. Smith’s 81 points are the most ever for a Cardinals player in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament.

Sunday's Elite Eight
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Final Four takes place next Saturday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, as two more spots need to be filled out on the dance card. Four big-time programs look to advance to the Peach State, as Florida takes on Michigan, while Duke battles Louisville. We'll begin in the Lone Star State with two schools that have gotten together for bowl games, but not tournament showdowns.

South Regional

(3) Florida vs. (4) Michigan

Both the Gators and Wolverines had to rally from double-digit deficits on Friday night to advance to the Elite Eight, but both squads put together their comebacks in different ways. Florida erased an early 15-4 deficit to upstart Florida Gulf Coast en route to a 62-50 victory, but the Gators didn't cash as 14-point favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan pulled off a bit more dramatic rally to reach the round of eight.

Kansas sat two minutes away from the regional final, but the Jayhawks squandered a 10-point lead late in regulation as Trey Burke's three-pointer in the final seconds forced overtime. The Wolverines responded in the extra session by capping off a 33-17 run in a 12-minute span to upend the Jayhawks, 87-85 to cash as 1½-point underdogs. Burke put the Wolverines on his back by scoring 13 points in a 5 ½-minute stretch, giving Michigan its first Elite Eight appearance since 1994.

The Gators covered in their first two tournament games in victories over Northwestern State and Minnesota, while Billy Donovan's team failed to knock down some key free throws in the final seconds in the non-cover against Florida Gulf Coast. Florida fell to 6-11 ATS the last 17 games, but eight of those ATS defeats came as 'chalk' of 10 points or more. As a favorite of single-digits, the Gators own a mediocre 3-4 ATS record, including outright losses away from Gainesville against Kentucky, Missouri, and Arizona.

Michigan closed the regular season with a 1-9 ATS record in the final 10 games, but John Beilein's club has cashed four of five postseason contests (including the Big 10 tournament). The Wolverines are just 2-2 ATS this season when receiving points, as the Maize and Blue did lose outright at Indiana and Ohio State as underdogs. Michigan has trended towards the 'over' in the 'dog role, cashing three times in four opportunities.

Florida is listed at 2½-point favorites, while the total is set at 131.

Midwest Regional

(1) Louisville vs. (2) Duke

The only top-seed left in the tournament is Louisville, who plays with revenge after losing to Duke in the Bahamas back in November. The Cardinals won their 13th straight game following Friday's 77-69 Sweet 16 triumph over Oregon, but Louisville couldn't close for backers as 11-point favorites. Rick Pitino's squad led by 14 points at the half, as the Ducks grabbed a backdoor cover with a layup in the final 30 seconds.

Seth Curry lifted Duke's offense to a Sweet 16 triumph over Michigan State on Friday, 71-61 as two-point favorites. Curry scored a game-high 29 points, including six three-pointers, while the Blue Devils knocked down 24-of-26 free throws to ice the victory. The game barely finished 'under' the total of 132 ½, in spite of Duke hitting all eight free throws in the final two minutes.

The Blue Devils held off the Cardinals as 1-point underdogs at the Battle 4 Atlantis during Thanksgiving weekend, 76-71. Duke shot just 5-of-20 from three-point range, including a 2-of-9 effort from Curry. Louisville rallied from an eight-point deficit to make things interesting, but Quinn Cook scored the final eight points for Duke to hand the Cardinals their first loss of the season.

Since the start of February, Mike Kryzyewski's team has covered consecutive games four times. However, the Blue Devils were unable to cash in the third opportunity, including outright losses to Virginia and Maryland. Duke enters this situation off back-to-back ATS wins over Creighton and Michigan State.

During this 13-game hot streak, the Cardinals have drilled the 'over' in eight consecutive contests, while posting a 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 victories. This is the third time the Cardinals are playing with revenge this season, as the Big East champions won and covered against Syracuse and Notre Dame after losing to those teams earlier in the campaign.

Louisville is listed as 3½-point favorites, while the total is set at 137.

Elite Eight Betting Preview: Michigan vs. Florida
Atssportsline.com

Who will be the next two teams to earn a trip to Atlanta and make the Final Four? The college basketball world turns its attention to Arlington, Tx. and Indianapolis, Ind. Don't worry about your March Madness bracket, since we know most are in pieces. If you bet on the games, here's a look at South Regional final where Michigan of the Big Ten takes on Florida of the SEC. Check below for a preview of the South Regional with key betting trends and angles along with March Madness statistics.

#4 Michigan Wolverines (29-7 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) vs. #3 Florida Gators (29-7 SU, 18-15 ATS)

Betting Odds

Florida is a 2.5-point betting odds favorite. The total is 131 after opening at 132.

Key Betting Trends

Michigan is:
7-1 ATS last 8 neutral site games.
5-1 ATS last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
1-4-1 ATS last 6 vs. Southeastern Conference teams.
11-4-1 last 16 matchups on the over bet in neutral site games.

Florida is:
4-1 ATS last 5 Sunday games.
18-6 ATS last 24 NCAA Tournament games.
1-4 ATS last 5 following a SU win.
21-9 last 30 matchups on the over bet in non-conference games.

Who has the edge?

Michigan had the toughest road to the Elite Eight. They crushed a tough VCU team by 25 to make the Sweet 16, then came back from 14 down with less than 7 minutes left to beat Kansas in overtime, 87-85. Michigan starts three freshmen, a sophomore and a junior, so they aren't the most experienced team in the tournament. They aren't the hottest team either, winning a respectable four of the last six games. But what they do have is arguably the best player in the tournament in sophomore Trey Burke. The point guard was 0-for-4 in the first half and didn't make his first basket until 18:48 left in regulation. But he finished with 23 points including a long three-pointer to send the game into overtime.

The Wolverines will present some challenges to Florida, but they can't afford to get behind double-digits in the second half. The key is how Florida defends freshman center Mitch McGary (6-10, 250), who has 21+ points and 14+ rebounds in two straight games. The only other player to do that in the last 15 years in the NCAA Tournament in Blake Griffin. McGary was almost an afterthought coming into this tournament and is only averaging 7.3 points and 6.1 rebounds but he was a five star recruit who is starting to figure it out.

Florida will try and counter McGary with Patric Young (6-9, 249), who averages 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds. and Will Yeguete (6-7, 240). They can also use forward Erik Murphy (6-10, 238) if necessary against the more physical McGary. Florida has won five of the last six and defeated Northwestern State (79-47), Minnesota (78-64) and Florida Gulf Coast (62-50) to reach the Elite Eight. The only game they didn't cover was against FGCU on Friday night as they were laying 13. The also started the game slow, getting behind 24-14 early in the first half, before going on a 16-0 run to go up 30-26 and they never trailed after that. Florida outstanding defense stepped up and forced 20 turnovers including nine for starting point guard Brett Comer.

Guard Mike Rosario led the Gators with 15 points in a solid but unspectacular offensive effort. Florida shot just 39 percent from the floor and 4-of-16 (27 percent) from beyond the arc. Against the team that rarely turns the ball over, Florida will need better games from Murphy (four points) and guard Scottie Wilbekin (3-of-11) who averages 9.3 points and shots 46 percent from the floor and 36 percent from beyond the arc.

Bottom line

This is a battle of guards with Rosario going up against Burke. Florida is the better defensive team, allowing teams to shoot just 38 percent from the floor and 30.3 percent from beyond the arc. They also average 71.8 points per game and allow teams to average just 53.7 points. But they don't want to run with Michigan, who averages 74.7 points per game and shoots 37.4 percent from beyond the arc and 48.3 percent from the field. Nik Stauskas (11.3 points, 43 percent 3-point) is a 6-foot-6 wing who can really get hot while Glen Robinson III (6-6, 210) is extremely athletic and a strong rebounder with 11.1 points and 5.6 caroms per game. They'll have to go the boards against a very solid Florida team.

Elite Eight Betting Preview: Duke vs. Louisville
Atssportsline.com

Who will be the next two teams to earn a trip to Atlanta and make the Final Four? The college basketball world turns its attention to Arlington, Tx. and Indianapolis, Ind. Did you shred your March Madness bracket? If you bet on the games, here's a look at Midwest Regional final where Duke of the ACC takes on Louisville of the Big East. Check below for a preview of the Midwest Regional with key betting trends and angles along with March Madness statistics.

#1 Louisville Cardinals (30-5 SU, 19-16 ATS) vs. #2 Duke Blue Devils (30-5 SU, 19-16 ATS)

Betting Odds:

Louisville is a 3.5-point betting odds favorite. The total is 137 after opening at 134.

Key Betting Trends

Duke is:
4-1 ATS last 5 following a SU win.
8-2 ATS last 10 neutral site games.
17-8-1 ATS last 26 Sunday games.
5-14-1 ATS last 20 vs. Big East
7-0 last 7 matchups on the over bet vs. Big East.

Louisville is:
9-1 ATS last 10 overall.
19-7 ATS last 26 Sunday games.
19-7 ATS last 26 neutral site games.
7-1 ATS last 8 NCAA Tournament games.
6-0 last 6 matchups on the over bet in non-conference play.

Who has the edge?

Last game: (11/24/12) Duke (+1) over Louisville, 76-71 (from Nassau, Bahamas)

Duke won the first matchup from Nassau as center Mason Plumlee dominated the paint with 16 points and seven rebounds. Louisville outrebonded Duke 38-33 but turned the ball over 15 times and had just six assists. Louisville was also playing without center Gorgui Deng, who was injured.

This has the look of an NCAA Championship game, not an Elite Eight contest. Rick Pitino isn't quite as accomplished as Mike Krzyzewski but he's close. The last time these two great coaches faced each other was back in 1992, when Duke beat Kentucky on Christian Laettner's historic shot at the buzzer to reach the Final Four. Duke may be underseeded for the rare time as they have gotten better with each round. They got to the Elite Eight by defeating Michigan State, 71-61, giving 2 on Friday night. They finally put everything together with great defense and excellent shooting. They turned the ball over just seven times and shot 24-of-26 (92.3 percent) from the foul line. Duke held the Spartans to just 40 percent shooting including freshman phenom Gary Harris (2-of-11) for just six points.

The key for Duke is 6-foot-2 shooting guard Seth Curry, who scored 29 points against Michigan State. When Curry is on, the Blue Devils are tough to stop and he's averaging 17.6 points per game this season. He had 17 against Creighton and 26 against Albany. He is also 10-of-20 from thee-point range in the tournament. Mason Plumlee (6-10, 235) had 14 points but won't have the size advantage against Gorgui Deng (6-11, 245).

Louisville's concern will be defending Curry and freshman Rasheed Sulaimon (6-4, 185). Pitino's guards are small as Russ Smith (6-1, 165) and Peyton Siva (6-0, 185) are more quick than long. Sophomore Kevin Ware (6-2, 175) comes in to provide energy. Offensively, they are much quicker than the Duke guards and that provides a dilemma for Coach K.

Louisville has won 13 straight games including a 77-69 win over Oregon on Friday, giving 10.5. They controlled the game the entire way, shooting 54 percent from the field but couldn't pull away because they shot just 4-of-13 (31 percent) from beyond the arc. Smith was outstanding with 31 points on 9-of-16 shooting from the field, but Siva played just 19 minutes and scored only four points due to foul trouble. Dieng controlled the paint with 19 points, nine rebounds and four blocks. He provides height since Wane Blackshear (6-5, 230) and Chase Behanan (6-6, 250) are valuable players who are physical but not tall.

Bottom line

Louisville does not want to grind this out. Even though they allow just 57.9 points per game, and teams to shoot 39.2 percent from the field and 31.6 percent from beyond the arc, they want to run. Duke can run, as they average 77.6 points per game and shot 47.5 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from beyond the arc. They get on runs because they get stops on defense and on offense they make three's especially Curry and Sulaimon. Louisville has Smith but they need more balance and they also need to force turnovers.