Thursday's Best NCAAB Bets
By Covers.com
Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators (-8, 136)
This has all the makings of a classic offense vs. defense matchup.
The Gators rank fifth nationally averaging 86.1 points per game, while the Seminoles allow just 57.8 points per contest.
"We know coming in against a team like Florida State and those other (big) teams that if we don't rebound the ball, we could lose," Gators guard Erving Walker told reporters after pacing the club with 19 points in its recent blowout of Mississippi Valley State. "Their coach has them very disciplined."
The Seminoles also plan to switch up their defensive assignments a bit to combat a Gators club that fires about 60 shots per game. Florida State wants to pressure Florida’s guards high to take away the 3-point shot and force them into the paint.
Not like anybody hasn’t tried that before, but if they can pull it off, this could be close.
Pick: Seminoles
Illinois Fighting Illini at Missouri Tigers (-6, 138.5)
Illinois nearly got caught looking ahead to Missouri, escaping with a 64-60 win over Cornell on Monday as a big 16.5-point favorite. The unbeaten Tigers are the Fighting Illini's greatest test of the season.
The Tigers haven’t skipped a beat with first-year head coach Frank Haith at the helm. They rank second in the country in scoring, averaging almost 88 points per game. The Fighting Illini lead the all-time “Braggin’ Rights” series 27-14, but the Tigers have won the last two meetings.
The Fighting Illini's grind-it-out pace will be a contrast to the fast-and-furious style of the Tigers. The Fighting Illini do the most damage when feeding the ball inside to 7-footer Meyers Leonard. He scored 19 points and grabbed 18 rebounds versus Cornell, but has struggled with foul trouble at times this season.
Bradley transfer Sam Maniscalco looked like a budding floor general for Illinois earlier in the season, but is mired in a slump heading into Thursday.
Illinois may have a tough time keeping up in this one.
Pick: Tigers
Games to Watch
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 8 Missouri Tigers
Illinois lost for the first time this season this past Saturday with a 64-48 setback to UNLV as a two-point favorite. Tonight it faces Cornell as a 15½-point home favorite and while the Fighting Illini are 10-1 SU, they are 4-5 ATS overall and 0-3 ATS in their last three games.
Missouri made short work of an out-classed William & Mary this past Sunday with a 94-56 pasting as a 33-point home favorite. The win moved its record to a perfect 11-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The Tigers are ranked second in the country in scoring and their 52.6 field-goal percentage is third-best in Division-I.
Memphis Tigers vs. No. 17 Georgetown Hoyas
Memphis’s roller-coaster season has taken another downturn with back-to-back losses to Murray State and No.4 Louisville in its past two games. The Tigers failed to cover as 10½-point home favorites against the Racers and salvaged a ‘push’ against the Cardinals in a 95-87 loss as eight-point road underdogs. They are 5-4 SU and 3-4-1 ATS on the year. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of their eight games.
Georgetown has risen up the ranks of the top 25 with a solid 9-1 SU start and is 4-0 ATS. The Hoyas last win in a game with a posted line came on Dec. 1 with a stunning 57-55 upset of then-No. 12 Alabama as seven-point road underdogs. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the four games with a line.
NCAAB Preview
Florida State lost last two games with Florida by 16-4 points, after they won previous three; Seminoles lost three of last four visits here, losing by 14-8-16 points. State is 0-3 vs teams in top 120, losing by 5-2-16 points. Gators won eight of last nine games; only teams that beat them (Ohio St/Syracuse) are in top 5 in country. ACC road underdogs of more than 5 points are 7-9 vs spread; SEC single digit favorites are 15-13.
Memphis lost 91-88 in OT to Georgetown on Maui in 5th-place game, when both teams were playing 3rd straight day. Tigers are 0-4 vs teams in top 50, losing by 12-3-4-8 points- they're 1-1 on road, winning at #76 Miami, losing by 8 at Louisville. Conference USA road underdogs of 8 or less points are 11-6-1 vs spread; Big Easst home favorites of 6 or less points are 1-5. Georgetown is 2-1 vs top 40 teams, with three games won by a total of nine points.
10-1 Northwestern won only road game by 16 at Georgia Tech; they're 3-1 vs top 100 teams, 0-1 vs top 50 clubs (69-41 vs Baylor). Creighton isn't overly athletic like Baylor, but they're 9-1, winning at San Diego St by hoop, losing at St Joe's in only top 100 games. Bluejays are in top 10 in country shooting both 2's and 3's. Big Dozen road underdogs of 8 or less points are 8-5 vs spread; MVC single digit home favorites are 6-12.
UCSB lost four of last five games, with all four losses vs top 65 teams; Gauchos are 1-2 on road, losing by 7 at Washington, 20 at Cal. All eight of BYU's D-I wins are by 14+ points. UCSB is 3-0 vs WCC teams, but best of the three teams is ranked #190. Gauchos are 2nd-worst team in country at forcing turnovers. Big West double digit road underdogs are 11-14 vs spread; WCC double digit home favorites are 8-7-1.
Butler is way overscheduled, playing sixth top 40 team, third in last six days; they've lost four of last five games, are 0-4 on the road, losing by 3-16-3-16 points. 10-1 Stanford has played #307 schedule; they're 2-1 vs top 120 teams, losing by 6 to Syracuse, beating NC State by 4 and Oklahoma State by 15. Horizon double digit road underdogs are 7-9-1 vs spread; Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 16-19.
Milwaukee lost to Marquette the last four years, losing by 3 at home LY after losing here by 35-20-20 points three years prior; Panthers are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13-16-6 points. 10-1 Eagles lost first game Monday at LSU, after leading early 13-0; they're 5-0 at home, with all five wins by 18+ points. Horizon road dogs of 13+ points are 6-4-1 vs spread; Big East home favorites of 12+ points are 10-22-1 vs spread.
Missouri beat Illinois last two years by 13-11 points, after losing seven in row to Illini before that; 11-0 Tigers are 3-0 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Notre Dame (by 29), Cal (39), Villanova (10). Illinois lost at home to UNLV by 16 in Chicago Saturday then struggled to win by 4 over Cornell Monday. Big Dozen underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-3 vs spread; Big X favorites of 6 or less are 8-6-1.
First true road game for Kansas squad that lost to Davidson Monday in KC; they've played #14 schedule so far, but Taylor is slowed by a bad knee. Jayhawks are 3-0 vs teams not in top 100, winning home games by 46-23-28 points. USC is 0-5 vs top 100 teams, losing by 2-11-15-3-4 points. Trojans are 3-4 at home. Big X faves of 6 or less points are 8-6-1 vs spread; road favorites are 5-5-1. Pac-12 home underdogs are 4-5.
6-4 Clemson has played #309 schedule so far, not good omen for when ACC play starts; Tigers are 2-1 on road, losing by 16 at Arizona, with wins at Citadel/Iowa. UTEP is 0-3 on road, losing by 16-5-11 points, but they gave UNLV all they could handle last week before losing late. ACC road favorites of less than 8 points are 7-5 vs spread; Conference USA road underdogs of 8 or less points are 11-6-1. Both teams turn ball over too much.
Long Beach State is 3-5 vs D-I teams playing #1 schedule in US- their last D-I win was exactly a month ago, at Boise State. Xavier gets its star guard Holloway back for this game but shooting guard Lyons is still out; Musketeers lost by 22 to Oral Roberts without both guards Sunday. Big West teams are 3-6 v spread when number is 3 or less points; Atlantic 14 teams are 11-5 when spread is 2 or less points, 9-1 on road.
Missouri State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 5-16-5 points; they're 3-2 on road, with best win at #105 Nevada. West Virginia (three players back from LY) is 4-2 vs top 100 teams, winning by 7-21-5-11 points, losing to Kent State/@ Mississippi State. Mountaineers' beat K-State in OT at Kansas City in their only other road game. MVC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-3 vs spread; Big East road favorites of 5 or less points are 10-7.
10-0 Baylor might be best team in country, winning at Northwestern by 28, at BYU by 3 and beating San Diego State by 10 at home; Bears either force a turnover or block a shot on 45.2% of possessions- they also hit 41.5% of shots behind arc. 10-1 St Mary's has played #325 schedule, losing by 12 at Denver, winning by 5 at Cal Poly in only road games. WCC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 4-7-1 vs spread; Big X road favorites are 5-5-1.
7-1 Auburn has played 2nd-easiest schedule in country, losing by 22 at Seton Hall in only road game; five of Tigers's seven wins are vs teams ranked #279 or lower. Hawai'i turns ball over 24.3% of time, could be a problem vs quick Tigers. Warriors are 4-4 vs D-I teams, with best win vs very young #264 Pacific. Auburn forces turnovers on 22.4% of time. SEC single digit road underdogs are 13-7 vs spread; WAC single digit home favorites are 4-12.