Thursday's Best NCAAB Bets
By Covers.com
Harvard Crimson at UConn Huskies (-6.5, 129.5)
No. 24 Harvard figured it would get a crack at No. 9 Connecticut in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament over Thanksgiving weekend. Unfortunately, the Huskies failed to hold up their end of the bargain and lost to Central Florida, leaving the Crimson to roll to the title.
Connecticut has added one significant piece since that loss, getting freshman point guard Ryan Boatright eligible following a six-game suspension. The Aurora, Ill., native has been a key part of the Huskies’ last two victories, hitting three free throws to force overtime in the third-place game at Atlantis, and leading the team with 23 points in a victory over Arkansas on Saturday.
Boatright’s emergence has taken the pressure off Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier, who were doing the bulk of the scoring in the team’s first six games. Boatright was 8 of 12 from the field and added six assists and five rebounds against Arkansas.
Pick: UConn -6.5
West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas State Wildcats (-2, 134.5)
Kansas State can look back to Bob Huggins’ single season as head coach to the year that turned the school into a contender in the Big 12, with then-assistant Frank Martin a big part of that transformation.
Huggins won the most games by a first-year coach (23) in Wildcats history but Martin took them to their highest win total (29) in 2010 and ended a 12-year NCAA Tournament drought with a berth in 2008.
Martin has been around long enough that all of the players on the roster are his recruits, including senior forward Jamar Samuels, who scored 15 of his 17 points in the second half Sunday in a 69-61 victory at Virginia Tech.
Pick: Kansas State -2
Harvard at Connecticut
Covers.com
Harvard Crimson & Connecticut Huskies (-6.5, 129.5)
THE STORY: No. 24 Harvard figured it would get a crack at No. 9 Connecticut in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament over Thanksgiving weekend. Unfortunately, the Huskies failed to hold up their end of the bargain and lost to Central Florida, leaving the Crimson to roll to the title. Connecticut has added one significant piece since that loss, getting freshman point guard Ryan Boatright eligible following a six-game suspension. The Aurora, Ill., native has been a key part of the Huskies’ last two victories, hitting three free throws to force overtime in the third-place game at Atlantis, and leading the team with 23 points in a victory over Arkansas on Saturday. Harvard, which might be the second-best team behind the Huskies in New England, is nationally ranked for the first time in school history and has won eight straight to begin the season.
ABOUT HARVARD (8-0): The Crimson made a nice run at the Ivy League title last season but fell just short. The overwhelming favorite to take the title and the Ivy’s automatic NCAA Tournament berth, Harvard may be elevating its preseason goals. The Crimson have dominated on the defensive end, holding five of their eight opponents under 50 points and ranking 10th in the nation in scoring defense. Senior forward Keith Wright anchors that defense, averaging 6.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks to go along with a team-high 11.4 points.
ABOUT CONNECTICUT (7-1): Boatright’s emergence has taken the pressure off Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier, who were doing the bulk of the scoring in the team’s first six games. Boatright was 8 of 12 from the field and added six assists and five rebounds against Arkansas. The Huskies have always been a strong interior team under Jim Calhoun and this season’s squad is no exception. Connecticut blocked 11 shots against the Razorbacks and ranks second in the nation in the category, averaging 9.0.
TIP-INS:
1. The last Ivy team in the Top 25 was Princeton on March 8, 1998.
2. The Huskies lead the all-time series 14-2, including an 81-52 victory in Hartford last season.
3. UConn is 115-4 against non-conference opponents from New England since Calhoun took over the program.
NCAAB Preview
Boston College is 2-6, with only wins over New Hampshire/Riverside by total of 7 points; five of their six losses are by 11+ points, with loss at Holy Cross (86-64) only true road game. Eagles won last three games vs Providence by 5-5-2 points; they've won three of last four visits here. Friars are 7-2, with best wins over #104 Fairfield, #134 South Carolina; both their losses are vs top 100 teams, Iona/Northern Iowa.
8-0 Harvard held two top 100 teams they beat to 45 ppg, winning by 5 over Florida State, 10 over Central Florida; UConn is 7-1, beating Florida State by 2 in OT, Arkansas by 13 in last two games. These two teams were in Bahamas tourney but didn't meet. Crimson won its three away games by 9-10-7 points, but against teams ranked #211/188/156. UConn is #3 offensive rebounding team in country. Interesting game.
Detroit's win over St John's Monday makes them 2-6 vs D-I opponents, but four of the six losses were by 6 or less points; Titans are 1-4 in last five games vs Wetern Michigan; five of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points. Broncos are overscheduled and 0-6 vs D-I teams, as they've played #3 schedule in America- they lost by 6-5 points in two games that were against teams not ranked in the top 100.
Eastern Michigan is 3-4, losing last game to Colgate; best team they've beaten was #182 IUPUI; Eagles are making just 25.2% of shots on arc, turning ball over 23.4% of time. Drake won 58-54 at Eastern LY; they're 4-3 vs D-I teams, but three teams that beat them are in top 100- they're 3-0 at home, with a win over Iowa State. Eastern's 66-49 loss at #317 Texas Southern is red flag- their only road win (1-3) was at IUPUI.
Kansas State is 5-0, allowing 59 ppg; only top 10- team they beat was #49 Va Tech (69-61); Wildcat opponents are making 36.2% of 2-point shots, 25.8% of 3-pointers while turning ball over 23.9% of time. West Virginia only has three players back from LY; they scored 60-62 in two losses, by 10-13 points to Kent/Miss State- they scored 77+ points in their four wins- they're only making 28.1% of their 3-pointers.
BOSTON COLLEGE (2 - 6) at PROVIDENCE (7 - 2) - 12/8/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PROVIDENCE is 80-108 ATS (-38.8 Units) in all home games since 1997.
PROVIDENCE is 80-108 ATS (-38.8 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PROVIDENCE is 1-1 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 straight up against PROVIDENCE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HARVARD (8 - 0) at CONNECTICUT (7 - 1) - 12/8/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 1-1 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 straight up against HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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W MICHIGAN (1 - 6) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 12/8/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-1 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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E MICHIGAN (4 - 4) at DRAKE (5 - 3) - 12/8/2011, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
DRAKE is 1-0 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
DRAKE is 1-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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W VIRGINIA (4 - 2) vs. KANSAS ST (5 - 0) - 12/8/2011, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. PROVIDENCE
Boston College is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Boston College is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Providence
Providence is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston College
Providence is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston College
CLEVELAND STATE vs. ROBERT MORRIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland State's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
No trends available
HARVARD vs. CONNECTICUT
Harvard is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Connecticut is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
Connecticut is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. DETROIT
Western Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Western Michigan is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Detroit is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
MAINE vs. NOTRE DAME
No trends available
Notre Dame is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Notre Dame is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
ORAL ROBERTS vs. OKLAHOMA
No trends available
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oral Roberts
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
WEST VIRGINIA vs. KANSAS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of West Virginia's last 10 games on the road
West Virginia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. DRAKE
Eastern Michigan is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Drake is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Drake's last 7 games
Thursday's Top Trends
W VIRGINIA is 1-10 ATS after one or more consecutive overs (vs. Kansas State)
HARVARD is 9-1 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games (vs. UConn)
BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses (vs. Providence)
PROVIDENCE is 9-26 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half (vs. Boston College)