NCAAB Preview
Murray State is 30-1, winning its last seven games since its only loss, to Tennessee State; Racers are 4-0 vs top 100 teams, winning at Memphis for its best win of year. Colorado State is lowest-rated MWC team in NCAAs since last time they made tourney, in 2003. Colorado State has four guards starting, so Murray will have chance to exploit them inside. Over last three years, dogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games. Teams have a common opponent; Rams lost to Southern Miss by 21; Murray beat USM in double OT. Both teams make over 40% behind the arc. Having game in Louisville makes this a Murray State home game.
Since 2006, Conference USA teams other than Memphis are 0-4 in this tournament; Southern Miss faded down stretch, going 3-4 in last seven games; overall, three of their last eight games went OT. Kansas State is favored by 5.5 over USM, biggest spread in 8-9 game since '87; K-State won last three first round games, by 13-20-5 points. Big X favorites are just 5-9 vs spread in first round last three years; since '03, Big X single digit first round favorites are 11-7 vs spread. USM makes only 43.3% of its 2-point shots. Over last four years, underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in 8-9 games. K-State was just 6-6 in its last twelve games.
Since 2003, teams from Southern Conference are 10-2 vs spread in this event, despite '08 Davidson being only team to win during that stretch. Louisville forces turnovers on 23.4% of possessions; Davidson protects ball well, ranking #22 in country in ball security. Over last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in 4-13 games. Last five years, team that won Big East tournament is 4-1 vs spread in its first NCAA tournament game, but Louisville is 1-5 against spread in first round last six seasons, losing to Cal/Morehead State last two years. Cardinals won four games in NYC last week after going 2-4 in last six regular season games.
Montana won its last 14 games to get here, but Big Sky teams lost their last five tournament games, with four of five losses by 18+ points; Griz only played three top 100 teams this season, losing to Colorado State by 6, Oregon State by 25, beating Long Beach by 2. Wisconsin won its last five first round games, by 13-15-2-4-14 points; they're 7-2 vs spread in last nine first round games, 5-2 when favored. Neither teams subs much but Badgers play 2nd-slowest paced games in country, so that shouldn't be factor. Only NCAA games Big Sky teams covered in last nine years were against fellow western teams, Washington/Nevada.
BYU was down 25 in first half to Iona Tuesday, won by 6, third year in row they've won tournament game, and greatest comeback in tournament history. Marquette is 2-4 vs spread in last six first round games, winning by 8-1-11 points. WCC teams are now 10-5 SU in first round/play-in games, despite being underdog in 11 of the 15 games- they're 6-5 as first round underdog. Favorites are 13-7 vs spread in 3-14 games the last five years. Since 2007, Big East teams that are 1-4 seeds are 13-8 vs spread in first round games. Very tough spot for NYU here, playing afternoon game here, after winning emotional game that ended 38 hours earlier.
Syracuse's title hopes took big blow when Fab Melo was declared out on Tuesday; Orange scored 16 ppg less in three games he missed earlier in season. #1 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in first round games last three years. Since 2004, Big East double digit favorites are 12-7 vs spread in the first round. Orange are 5-2 vs spread in last seven first round games, covering last three. NC-Asheville lost to NC State by 9, North Carolina by 16, UConn by 10, Tennessee by 4- they played #18 non-conference slate in country. Big South teams lost last three games in this round by 31-43-23 points after Winthrop pulled an upset back in 2007.
Long Beach State has junior/four seniors in starting five, their #2 scorer Anderson is expected back here after missing Big West tournament with sprained knee; 49ers lost by 4 at San Diego State in only game against a MWC team. Big West teams are 0-6 in NCAAs last six years, with all six losses by 11+ points (2-4 vs spread). New Mexico won five in row, 12 of last 14 games; they're younger and deeper than Lobos, holding foes to 30.9% behind the arc. 49ers are 18-2 in last 20 games, with losses by combined total of 5 points- they're 0-5 vs top 50 teams, with best win over #59 Xavier. Dogs are 10-6 vs spread in 5-12 games last four years.
In last four seasons, Vanderbilt has been upset in first round three times, as a 4-4-5 seed, a record of ineptitude unequalled in this tournament, so ton of pressure on veteran Vandy squad that had emotional win Sunday over Kentucky (won first SEC title since 1951). Commodores have five seniors in top five players; they make 38.9% behind arc, do Harvard will not be able to just doubleteam Azili. Since 2008, SEC first round faves are 4-9 against spread. Harvard beat LMU/Florida State in pre-season, but they struggled to win Ivy title- they don't shoot or make ton of 3's. Ivy League teams are 1-8 in this round since '03, 3-6 vs spread.
Young Western Kentucky squad (five freshmen in rotation) has won its last eight games, after rallying back from down 16 with 4:57 in play-in game Tuesday, biggest comeback in last 5:00 of any tournament game in NCAA history. That said, Hilltoppers will get crushed if they play like that against Kentucky squad that blocks 21.3% of its opponents' shots, and allows foes to make only 38.8% of 2-point shots. Wildcats figure to be focused after losing SEC title game, their first loss since Dec 10. Sun Belt teams are 7-4 vs spread as an NCAA underdog the last nine years. Kentucky is 3-4 vs spread in its last seven first round games.
VCU went to Wichita and beat Shockers 68-67 in Bracket Buster game LY, game that propelled Rams to unlikely NCAA bid/spot in Final Four, while Wichita wound up winning NIT. Underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 5-12 games last three years; CAA teams are 15-5-1 vs spread in last 21 games as an NCAA underdog. VCU lost four starters from LY but their new group leads country, forcing turnovers on 27.4% of possessions. Wichita has two juniors, five seniors in its rotation- they're 9-1 in last 10 games, losing by point in Valley semifinals. Shockers protect ball well. Since 2005, MVC favorites are 4-1 vs spread in this round.
West Virginia will have home crowd on its side in Pittsburgh, but they'll need much better offense to advance; they've really struggled to score at end of games late in season, but they have won first round game in five of last six tournaments. Gonzaga is a young team, with one senior in its top six players; they're 7-2 in first round games last nine years, 5-4 vs spread as tournament underdog. Since 2005, Big East teams seeded 8th or lower are just 2-6 SU. Gonzaga won eight of its last ten games, with two losses by total of five points- they play lot of tough non-conference games, so doubtful they'll be intimidated by Big East opponent.
South Dakota State has four guys who make 40%+ from arc, but its best player shoots only 24.4%-- he is terrific passer who gets inside defense and creates shots for teammates; Jackrabbits won by 19 at Washington in December, so if Baylor doesn't defend arc well, this could get dicey. Summit League isn't bad ball, but their teams are 0-9 in NCAAs the last nine years, covering spread two of last three years. Last three years, Big X double digit favorites are 3-5 vs spread in this round. Baylor is 10-7 in its last 17 games after starting season 17-0; they block lot of shots but are average defending the arc, which is where Jackrabbits can hurt them.
Iowa State has NBA player in White, who shoots 53% from floor, only 49% from line; Cyclones are in tourney for first time since 2005- they beat Providence of Big East by 10 in December, part of a poor schedule they played to build confidence with team of transfers for league play, and it worked, with ISU going surprisingly good 12-7. UConn is 8-12 in last 20 games, but won three of four with Calhoun back on bench- they defend basket well but don't defend the arc so well. Christopherson is a senior guard who could do damage here. Since '05, Big East teams seeded 8th or lower are just 2-6 SU.
Indiana lost PG Jones for season last week; Hoosiers are in tournament for first time since '08- they're 13-0 out of conference, winning by hoop at NC State, beating Kentucky at home. Last four years, underdogs are 9-7 vs spread in 4-13 games, but since 2007, single digit dogs are 5-10 vs spread in this round, double digit dogs 4-1. New Mexico State uses only seven guys, but five are juniors/seniors. Aggies get to foul line more than anyone in country and are #4 team on offensive boards- they hold foes to 32% behind arc, which is important against Indiana team that shoots 43.3% behind arc, second-best in country.
Loyola Md is carrying banner for MAAC after Iona's epic collapse on Tuesday; since 2005, MAAC underdogs are 3-7 vs spread in first round games. Greyhounds have only one senior in their rotation, lost by 24 at Kentucky in their only game vs top 50 opponent. Over last seven years, underdogs are 16-12 vs spread in 2-15 games. Ohio State is just 6-4 in its last ten games, but all four losses were against top 25 teams- they're 9-6 vs spread this season when laying double digits. Since 2003, Big Dozen double digit first round favorites are 4-6 against the spread. Ohio State lost to Siena of MAAC in '09, last first round win for MAAC.
Colorado won four games in four days to get here; UNLV flattened out late in year, losing last four road games, going 5-5 in last 10 games, with last win away from home on January 28. Underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last three years. Rebels beat Cal by 17, USC by 11 in its two games vs Pac-12 foes. Buffaloes are 1-2 vs MWC opponents, with win over Air Force, losses to Colorado State/Wyoming. UNLV has four seniors in its top eight players; their expectations got raised little bit too high after they upset North Carolina in December. Pac-12 teams are 10-2 in first round/play-in games the last three tournaments.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday Afternoon Games
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The second round of the NCAA Tournament begins on Thursday with a full card of 16 games to wager on. We'll take a look here at the eight day contests, including three Big East teams taking the court (Syracuse, Marquette, and Louisville). The day begins in Louisville with one of the nation's biggest surprises looking to keep up their magical season.
[11] Colorado State vs. [6] Murray State (-4, 135½)
The Racers enter the tournament with a resounding 30-1 record, while claiming both the Ohio Valley regular season and conference tournament titles. Murray State is roughly a four-hour drive from KFC Yum Center in Louisville, where the Racers' second round game takes place against Colorado State. The Rams claimed an at-large berth out of the Mountain West at 20-11, as CSU cashed in seven of its final eight games of the season. Colorado State won only two of its nine games away from Ft. Collins in MWC play, including losses at Boise State and TCU. Murray State's lone loss came to Tennessee State in early February, as the Racers compiled a 9-3 ATS record as a single-digit favorite this season.
[9] Southern Miss vs. [8] Kansas State (-5, 133½)
In one of the more intriguing matchups on Thursday, the Wildcats and Golden Eagles will play for the right to likely take on top-seeded Syracuse in the third round. K-State handled Missouri twice, while also knocking off Baylor in Waco as 7 ½-point underdogs. Frank Martin's club put together a 7-9 ATS ledger in the favorite role, while failing to cover in the 3-5 pointspread range against West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma. Southern Miss didn't cash tickets in its final seven games of the season, even though six of those contests came in the 'chalk' role. The Golden Eagles did push the pace with a 10-2 'over' run the final 12 games, while scoring at least 75 points six times.
[13] Davidson vs. [4] Louisville (-7½, 138½)
This will be a rough wake-up call for the Wildcats and Cardinals, who tip things off at 10:40 AM local time at the Rose Garden in Portland. Louisville grabbed the Big East tournament crown with an ugly victory over Cincinnati, capping off a run of four wins in four days. The Cardinals are in the Big Dance for the sixth straight season, while trying to win their opening game after losing the last two against Cal (2010) and Murray State (2011). Davidson captured the automatic berth after winning the Southern Conference title, as the Wildcats finished 19-2 in conference play. Four seasons after making a run to the Elite Eight, Davidson's signature victory this season came at Kansas as 13-point 'dogs, avenging the loss to the Jayhawks that preventing the Wildcats from going to the Final Four in 2008. The Wildcats fell to Wichita State, Vanderbilt, and Duke in non-conference play, but all three games finished 'over' the total.
[13] Montana vs. [4] Wisconsin (-9, 118½)
The first game in Albuquerque isn't a sexy one by any stretch, as the grind-it-out Badgers battle Montana. Wisconsin fell to eventual Big 10 champ Michigan State in the semifinals of the conference tournament, but Bo Ryan's team has won 12 of their past 16 games. However, the Badgers aren't profiting over the last 20 contests by posting a 7-13 ATS mark, while going 2-5 ATS the last seven games as a favorite. Montana is back in the tournament for the first time since 2010 as the Grizzlies claimed the Big Sky title, while winning each of its final 14 games. The signature non-conference victory for Montana came against Long Beach State, who is a 12-seed in the West Regional. The Grizzlies own a 15-5 ATS record in their previous 20 lined games, while three of the non-covers came as double-digit favorites.
[14] BYU vs. [3] Marquette (-6)
The Cougars pulled off a historic tournament triumph by overcoming a 25-point deficit in Tuesday's 78-72 rally over Iona as two-point favorites. BYU makes the short trip from Dayton to Louisville as the Cougars take on a Marquette squad that finished the season at 25-7. The Golden Eagles were a profiting machine early January by posting a 12-5 ATS mark, while going 6-2 ATS in this stretch as a single-digit favorite. BYU took advantage in its first season as a member of the West Coast Conference by compiling a 26-8 record, including a 13-5 conference ledger. The Cougars are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS run, which includes the comeback victory against Iona, while going 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season.
[16] UNC-Asheville vs. [1] Syracuse (-15, 147)
The Orange is the top seed in the East Regional, but Jim Boeheim's team will be without its center Fab Melo for the entire tournament due to eligibility issues. Syracuse should take care of business against a UNC-Asheville club that claimed the Big South title with a victory over VMI in the conference championship game. The Bulldogs average 81 points per game, while busting the 80-point mark eighteen times this season (including a six-game stretch during conference play). Syracuse lost only two games all season against Notre Dame and Cincinnati, as the Orange struggled down the stretch covering numbers by putting together a 2-7 ATS record the last nine games.
[12] Long Beach State vs. [5] New Mexico (-4, 137)
The Lobos are one of the hottest ATS teams as of late by covering 12 of their last 14 games, while taking home the title of the Mountain West tournament. New Mexico will have its hands full against Long Beach State, who won both the Big West regular season title and tournament championship at 25-8. The 49ers picked up 18 victories in 19 tries against conference foes, including a 7-2 ATS run down the stretch. New Mexico finished a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS as a favorite of five points or less this season, including wins over tournament teams UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico State.
[12] Harvard vs. [5] Vanderbilt (-5½, 122½)
Two of the brainier schools in the tournament meet up at the Pit in New Mexico for an intriguing matchup between the SEC and the Ivy League. The Commodores upset top-ranked Kentucky to claim the SEC tournament crown as 7½-point underdogs, 71-64. Vandy has dropped its opening game in the NCAA tournament in the last three tries, including a three-point loss to Richmond last March. The Crimson finished off a spectacular season with a 26-4 mark and their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1946, when the field was composed of only eight teams. Harvard stumbled to a 3-8 ATS finish, but all 11 of those games came in the 'chalk' role. The Commodores closed the season at 8-3 ATS, including covers against Kentucky and Florida.
NCAA Previews & Picks: Thursday's East Region Action
By Covers.com
No. 9 Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. No. 8 Kansas State Wildcats (-5, 134)
THE STORY: For the third straight season and for the fourth time in the last five years, Kansas State has advanced to the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats received an 8-seed in the East Region and will take on No. 9 seed Southern Mississippi in the Round of 64 in Pittsburgh. Kansas State, which defeated three top-10 teams, received an at-large bid after finishing fifth in the Big 12 Conference standings. The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, are making their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1991 after finishing two games back of first-place Memphis in Conference USA. Kansas State won the most recent meeting, a 74-55 victory in 2008 on a neutral court.
PICK: Wildcats
No. 13 Montana Grizzlies No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers (-9, 118)
THE STORY: For the third straight season, Wisconsin will begin its NCAA tournament run as a No. 4 seed. The Badgers, who took down Wofford in 2010 and Belmont in 2011, have made it past the Round of 64 in each of the past five seasons. Trying to end that streak will be No. 13 seed Montana, which dominated the Big Sky conference and enters the East Regional riding a 14-game winning streak. The Grizzlies are making their second tournament appearance in three years after missing out in 2011. Both schools do their best work at the defensive end, with the Badgers leading the nation in scoring defense.
PICK: Under
No. 16 UNC-Asheville Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Syracuse Orange (-15, 147)
THE STORY: Second-ranked Syracuse, the Big East regular season champions, received a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament for the second time in the last three years. The Orange, who were ranked in the top 5 every week throughout the season, will take on No. 16 UNC-Asheville in the Round of 64 in Pittsburgh as part of the East Region. The Bulldogs are making their third NCAA tournament appearance in the last seven years after winning the Big South Conference. Syracuse is 3-0 in the all-time series, which includes an 81-63 victory in the most recent meeting in 2003. A 16-seed has never defeated a top-seeded team in the tournament’s history.
PICK: Over
No. 12 Harvard Crimson vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores (-5.5, 123)
THE STORY: After struggling through most of the regular season as one of the more disappointing teams in the country, Vanderbilt enters the NCAA tournament as one of the most impressive. The Commodores knocked off No. 1 Kentucky in the SEC championship game to earn an automatic bid and a No. 5 seed in the East Regional. Looming in the Round of 64 is No. 12 seed Harvard, which was ranked in the Top 25 for much of the season and won the Ivy League for the first time to earn its first trip to the tournament since 1946.
PICK: Crimson
No. 15 Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-17, 130)
THE STORY: Rebuffed in its bid to claim a third consecutive conference tournament title, No. 2 seed Ohio State will instead begin its quest to advance past the regional semifinal round for the first time since 2007. The Buckeyes, coming off of Sunday’s 68-64 loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament final, will start that journey when they meet No. 15 seed Loyola-Maryland for the first time ever after the Greyhounds qualified for the tournament for the first time since 1994 with a 48-44 win over Fairfield to claim the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference title.
PICK: Buckeyes
No. 10 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-1, 133)
THE STORY: Typically, when No. 10 seed West Virginia heads to Pittsburgh, it's to do battle in the “Backyard Brawl”. When the Mountaineers make the 75-mile drive this week, however, it will be to meet No. 7 Gonzaga for the first time in school history. Despite going 4-8 over their final 12 games, the Mountaineers received an at-large bid following an opening-round loss to Connecticut in the Big East tournament. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs will be traveling across the country after qualifying for their 14th straight NCAA tournament after their overtime loss to Saint Mary’s in the WCC tournament title game.
PICK: Mountaineers
NCAA Previews & Picks: Thursday's South Region Action
By Covers.com
No. 16 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-25, N/A)
THE STORY: The last time they took the floor following a loss, the Wildcats started a 24-game winning streak. Kentucky needs a streak just a quarter of that length to claim its seventh national championship, starting Thursday in Louisville. Despite losing the SEC title game to Vanderbilt on Sunday in New Orleans, the Wildcats remain a strong favorite to return to the Big Easy for the Final Four. Western Kentucky rallied from 16 points down in the final five minutes Tuesday to upend Mississippi Valley State in the opening round, 59-58. WKU saved its best work of the season for the past month. The Hilltoppers were 9-18 on Feb. 22, but have won seven in a row, including four wins in four days at the Sun Belt Conference tournament.
PICK: Kentucky
No. 12 VCU Rams vs. No. 5 Wichita State Shockers (-6.5, 135)
THE STORY: Fifth-seeded Wichita State, the Missouri Valley Conference regular season champion, meets 12th-seeded Virgina Commonwealth, the Colonial tournament champion, in the South Regional. While Wichita State took its NCAA snubbing from a year ago and turned it into an NIT championship, VCU was one of the last at-large teams selected and turned that into a surprise Final Four appearance. The teams, who meet in a Round of 64 game, are coming off different conference tournament results. Wichita State lost a heartbreaker in the semifinals to Illinois State, while VCU captured its second Colonial title in four years.
PICK: Rams
No. 14 South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-7.5, 140)
THE STORY: The last time Baylor made it to the NCAA tournament in 2010, the Bears advanced to the Elite Eight before suffering a 78-71 setback against eventual national champion Duke. If the third-seeded Bears hope to have similar success this year, they’ll have to get past No. 14 South Dakota State in the Round of 64 in the South Region. The Bears, who are making their third NCAA tournament appearance in the last five years, enter off a 90-75 loss to Missouri in the Big 12 championship game. The Jackrabbits, meanwhile, are making their first-ever NCAA tournament appearance after winning the Summit League’s automatic bid. They defeated Western Illinois 52-50 in the conference title game.
PICK: Bears
No. 9 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 8 Iowa State Hawkeyes (1.5, 136)
THE STORY: The defending national champion Huskies did just enough in the Big East tournament to earn the chance to defend their crown. Connecticut reached the conference quarterfinals and pushed second ranked Syracuse to the limit before losing 58-55. Considered on the bubble for making the NCAA tournament, a late-season three-game winning streak after coach Jim Calhoun returned from spinal surgery pushed Connecticut to 20 victories. The Cyclones are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2005. Iowa State has enjoyed a remarkable turnaround in which the Cyclones went from last in the Big 12 in 2010-11 to third this season. Iowa State’s resume features several signature wins, including an 80-72 victory over then No. 10 Baylor in its regular-season finale.
PICK: Under
No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers (-6, 154)
THE STORY: Expect a high-scoring Round of 64 affair when No. 4 seed Indiana and 13th-seeded and WAC champion New Mexico State get together in the South Regional. Both the Big Ten’s Hoosiers (77.3) and Aggies (78.5) led their respective conferences in scoring, with New Mexico State coming off a title run where it averaged 79.6 points in three tournament games. Indiana is in the tournament for the first time in coach Tom Crean’s four seasons and will try to reverse a decade-long trend: The Hoosiers haven’t reached the second weekend of the tournament since the 2001-2002 team finished as national runner-up. New Mexico State will try to pick up the school’s first NCAA tournament victory since the 1992-1993 squad knocked off Nebraska in the opening round.
PICK: Over
No. 11 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 6 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (-5.5, 134)
THE STORY: Sixth-seeded UNLV will look for its first NCAA tournament victory since 2008 when it takes on No. 11 seed Colorado in the Round of 64 in the South Region. The Runnin’ Rebels, who were knocked out of the Mountain West Conference tournament in the semifinals, are making their third straight and 19th overall appearance in the NCAA tournament. The Buffaloes, meanwhile, earned their spot in the field after defeating Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado last appeared in the NCAA tournament in 2003, when it lost 79-64 to Michigan State in the opening round.
PICK: UNLV
NCAA Previews & Picks: Thursday's West Region Action
By Covers.com
No. 13 BYU Cougars at No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (-6, N/A)
THE STORY: Marquette, making its seventh straight NCAA tournament appearance, puts its No. 3 seed on the line Thursday against 14th-seeded BYU in a West Regional game in Louisville, Ky. The Golden Eagles finished second in the regular season in the rugged Big East, but were upset in the quarterfinals of the league tournament by Louisville. BYU, which pulled off a historic comeback Tuesday by coming from 25 down to stun Iona , is appearing in the Big Dance for the sixth straight year. Both Marquette and BYU advanced to the Sweet 16 last season.
PICK: Golden Eagles
No. 11 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 6 Murray State Racers (-4, 136)
THE STORY: Murray State begins its NCAA tournament journey in its home state on Thursday when the sixth-seeded Racers meet Colorado State in the South Regional round of 64 in Louisville, Ky. Murray State, the last Division-I team to lose this season after its school record 23-0 start, begins postseason play with the best record in the nation and is making its 15th NCAA tourney appearance. The Racers are back in the the Big Dance for the second time in three years. Colorado State, the No. 11 seed, finished fourth in the Mountain West Conference and is making its first NCAA appearance since 2003.
PICK: Racers
No. 13 Davidson Wildcats vs. No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (-7.5, 139)
THE STORY: Louisville has been one-and-done in each of the past two NCAA tournaments and the fourth-seeded Cardinals will try again to get out of the Round of 64 when they meet 13th-seeded Davidson in the West Regional. The Cardinals were upset by Morehead State last season and lost to California in 2010. Davidson is back in the tournament for the first time since nearly reaching the Final Four in 2008. The squad led by Stephen Curry lost by two points to Kansas in the regional final. The Wildcats qualified this time by notching a 93-91 double-overtime victory over Western Carolina in the Southern Conference tournament final. Louisville was in regardless, but won four straight games to win the Big East Conference tournament.
PICK: Cardinals
No. 12 Long Beach State 49ers vs. No. 5 New Mexico (-4, 137)
THE STORY: Two of the better teams in the West square off when fifth-seeded New Mexico and 12th-seed Long Beach State meet in the West Regional. The Lobos are a deep athletic squad that shared the Mountain West regular season title with San Diego State before winning the league’s conference tournament. Long Beach State played a tough non-conference schedule and still needed to win the Big West Conference tournament title to make the 68-team field. Both teams feature a premier player into the Round of 64 game – New Mexico senior forward Drew Gordon and the 49ers do-everything senior guard Casper Ware.
PICK: Over
March Madness Action Report: Day 1 Totals on the Rise
By Ashton Grewal
Covers.com
It used to be a lot easier for oddsmakers setting lines for the NCAA tournament. Twenty points was the default spread for a No. 1 vs. No. 16 seed, but that’s not the case anymore.
“I’m really dating myself when I say these things,” Jimmy Vaccaro, Vegas veteran and Lucky’s sportsbook manager, told Covers.com, “but Duke is only giving 12 points to Lehigh? I mean, Lee-high? But it’s the right number and it just shows there isn’t as much separation in talent between these schools anymore.”
There are a number of Thursday tourney games with spreads and totals moving up and down. Here’s a look at some of the biggest moves:
(12) Harvard vs. (5) Vanderbilt: Open -8.5, now -5
Most shops opened this battle of brainy schools with a 7-point spread, but the Wynn, the first shop to open tourney lines in Vegas, threw out Vandy -8.5.
Wynn sportsbook director John Avello said he wasn’t sure why the sharps were pounding Harvard and he admitted he didn’t like the idea of being open to a 3-point middle.
"Harvard beat Florida State early in the season and they've got a coach who knows what he's doing," Avello told Covers.com, "but I thought there'd be more action on Vanderbilt the way they closed the season out."
(9) Southern Mississippi vs. (8) Kansas State: Open -6.5, now -5
KSU finished the Big 12 regular season off in style, winning at Mizzou and Baylor. Southern Mississippi, on the other hand, is on a 1-9 ATS streak, but went 14-3 in its non-conference schedule, with wins over New Mexico State, Colorado State and South Florida.
“I understand this line move,” Avello said. “Southern Miss had a good season.”
Avello also said he expects some buy-back on Kansas State once the tourists get in town, so if you like the Wildcats you might want to bet them now.
(13) Montana vs. (4) Wisconsin: Open 115.5, now 118.5
Wisconsin is the second lowest scoring team (63.9) in the tourney and allowed just 19.5 made field goals per game. We all know this about the Badgers. They’re a tough defensive team that plays an unbearably, slow-paced game.
Still, the total has already been bet up three points in the first three days leading up to Thursday’s tip-off.
(16) UNC-Asheville vs. (1) Syracuse: Open -18, now -15.5
Some offshore books opened lower but most shops installed the Orange as 17 to 17.5-point favorites with a 145.5 total for their first round matchup against the Bulldogs. But the spread and total both moved after word broke that Syracuse’s starting center Fab Melo was ruled ineligible to play in the tournament.
“Melo is not a stat guy,” said Avello, who opened the game at ‘Cuse -18. “His defense will be missed, sure. But it’s not like he was going to light up the scoreboard.”
That would probably explain why the total moved up to 147.5. The two-point swing on the spread seems to have more to do with a betting market that isn’t too high on the Big East’s best entering the Big Dance.
(12) Long Beach State vs. (5) New Mexico: Open 133.5, now 137.5
A four-point jump on this total caught our eyes right away. The outcome of this O/U will largely depend on Long Beach State leading scorer Casper Ware. If the undersized guard is feeling it from outside, over bettors should see a nice payday – even those who bought at 137.5.
“I think New Mexico is a live team,” Avello said. “They’re coming off a high from winning the Mountain West tournament, and they just seem to be firing on all pistons. We know this is going to be a running game, that’s for sure.”
Thursday's Primetime Games
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Thursday’s NCAA Tournament action wraps up Thursday with eight games on tap and six of them will feature South Regional battles from Louisville, Portland and Albuquerque. The other pair will be East Regional affairs, which take place from Pittsburgh.
With help from VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence, here’s some quick takes on the final eight battles for Thursday.
Let’s break them down.
The first of the four below games are scheduled to begin at 6:50 p.m. ET.
(16) Western Kentucky vs. Kentucky (1)
It’s rare to see high spreads but Kentucky is in a different class this season and giving 25 points shouldn’t be surprising. The Wildcats did lose in the SEC Championship to Vanderbilt and they failed to cover every tournament game. John Calipari’s team only lost once this season and they rebounded with a 25-point win over Chattanooga (87-62) in the following game. Is the 25-point margin a coincidence? Western Kentucky rallied for a win in the play-in game on Tuesday and it’s fortunate to be playing close to home (KFC Center, Louisville) against the Wildcats. The Hilltoppers don’t boast any quality non-conference wins, but they have dare we say decent losses to Louisville (60-70) and VCU (64-69)?
(12) VCU vs. (5) Wichita State
Virginia Commonwealth has been a beast in postseason play the last two seasons, winning the CBI in 2010 and advancing to the Final Four in 2011. Now the Rams are a No. 12 seed and getting a lot of buzz but the reality is that they’re not as good as the past two seasons. VCU is getting points (6) to Wichita State, who is a very good team and should’ve been seeded higher according to a lot of pundits. The Shockers can score (77.7 PPG) and they shoot extremely well from 3-point land (37.3%) and the free-throw line (75%). Both VCU (15-5) and Wichita State (12-4) have been great bets on road/neutral courts. The Rams have been underdogs three times this season and they’ve gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. These two schools met last year in the BracketBuster and VCU earned a 68-67 road victory.
(10) West Virginia vs. (7) Gonzaga
According to the betting trends, this matchup is as even as it gets. It’s safe to say that West Virginia underachieved this season, definitely in late-game situations. Six of the Mountaineers’ 13 losses have come by six points or less and they’re not clicking on all cylinders. West Virginia has gone 4-8 both SU and ATS in its last 12 games and the three wins came against teams not in the tournament. Fortunately for WVU, it will be playing in its backyard (Pittsburgh) against Gonzaga, who is traveling from the Washington. Even though the Zags will be playing in a hostile environment, they have gone 10-5 as a visitor this season on road or neutral courts. Coaches Bob Huggins (15-3) and Mark Few (9-3) have both been solid bets in the opening round of this tournament. Bettors looking at the total could be scratching their heads here. The number opened at 131 and jumped to 133. West Virginia has been a serious ‘over’ (18-11) team but Gonzaga has leaned heavily to the ‘under’ (21-8) this season and that includes a 7-1 run coming into this game.
(14) South Dakota State vs. (3) Baylor
The first thing that sticks out here is the line. Why is Baylor only giving 7 1/2-points to South Dakota State? The Jackrabbits have losses to Minnesota, Georgia and Nebraska. We understand all came early in the season but those D-1 schools are average and we’re probably being nice. Baylor has NBA-talent on its roster but again, the line says so much. Lawrence helped us out here with this betting stat – Baylor is 3-8 ATS as a favorite eight points or less this season and its 2-10 ATS under head coach Scott Drew when playing off a loss of 10 points or more.
The first of the four below games are scheduled to begin at 9:45 p.m. ET.
(9) Connecticut vs. (8) Iowa State
Some pundits didn’t believe the defending champions would earn a tournament bid and a lot believe they’ll go home before the weekend. The odds of Connecticut winning six straight are next to impossible and the opening line (-2) against Iowa State, who has quality wins albeit at home over Baylor, Kansas and Kansas State. The Cyclones were money-makers for gamblers, going 18-9 ATS this season and that includes a 5-1 run entering the tournament. UConn also closed the season on a 5-1 ATS streak but it was 3-3 SU over that span. The three losses were by a combined seven points. If you’re looking for a trend to ride on this matchup, the total could be a look with UConn watching eight of its last 10 go ‘over’ the number. The ‘over/under’ here is listed between 135 and 136 points.
(13) New Mexico State vs. (4) Indiana
New Mexico State is getting a lot of press and you wonder if it’s warranted. The Aggies do have three factors you look for in a sleeper team. Experience, size and swagger! They also closed the year strong by winning nine of 10 and that includes a 7-2 ATS mark. Indiana has been just as hot, going 8-2 SU and 6-3 ATS over its last 10 but the biggest setback might’ve come in the Big 10 tournament. The team lost senior guard Verdell Jones to a knee injury and it was felt in their last loss to Wisconsin. Also, the Hoosiers have won 18 of their 25 wins at home this season. Big step-up in class from the WAC to the Big 10 for the Aggies but the point-spread (6) warrants respect for the underdog here and Indiana might not be ready for the travel to Portland’s Rose Garden. The ‘over/under’ is hovering between 153 and 154 points, which is one of the highest totals in the opening round. Both teams push the tempo and average close to 78 PPG, but the Aggies (67%) free-throw percentage is far worse than the Hoosiers (76%).
(15) Loyola-Maryland vs. (2) Ohio State
Will the Buckeyes get upset in Pittsburgh? Considering No. 2 seeds are 80-4 (35-45-4 ATS) according to Lawrence, it’s doubtful. However, Lawrence has noted that No. 2 seeds are 9-24-4 ATS against opponents off a straight up victory. Loyola-Maryland enters this matchup off four straight wins and it’s catching 17 points to Ohio State. The Greyhounds don’t match the talent of the Buckeyes, but they do rebound well and they have four seniors. However, this same experienced squad suffered double-digit losses to other tournament teams in St. Bonaventure (66-76), Kentucky (63-87) and Iona (63-74). And make a note that Ohio State has gone 11-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.
(11) Colorado vs. (6) UNLV
The last game on the board could be the toughest one to gauge. The Rebels opened as four-point favorites but sharp money came in early on UNLV and the number is up to 5 ½-points at most betting shops. Don’t be surprised to see it close higher either, especially with the locals in Las Vegas backing their hometown squad. Will they win and cover? It’s hard to back a team like the Rebels that are just 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and four of the losses came on the road. UNLV (18-1) and Colorado (14-2) have both had success at home this season but as mentioned above, the road has been a different story. Even though the Buffaloes played in the weak Pac 12 this season, they did just win four straight (3-1 ATS) to capture the conference championship. Defensively, they gave up 53.3 PPG over this span. Total players have watched the ‘under’ go 19-11 for Colorado and that includes four straight ‘under’ tickets in the Pac 12 tournament. One thing to mention is that this game will be played in New Mexico’s “Pit” and most would expect the locals to cheer for Colorado over the Mountain West Conference rival UNLV.